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Long-Term Views Prevail In The Current Climate with 8:00GMT Update

Posted on July 8, 2009 at 21:03 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim Salem

 

Greetings Everyone, and Welcome to Thursday!

With The Massive Risk-Averse Volatility and Strength of The Yen and The Dollar, IntraDay Perspectives surely felt some Heat moving through the most recent Trading Sessions.

We have discussed the Macro-Economic Issues of these At Length all week here on The Blog, so we do not need to revisit them.

In my experience, we see certain types of reactions to Rapid Speed and Momentum of Price Action…. one of them is what I call “Tunnel Vision”.

As I mentioned on the previous Post, The Concept of “Chasing The Trade” comes into Play as Price illicit an almost “Emotional” Response.

As I always say, I do not have issues with any Type or Style of Trading that one may prefer… as long as Risk Exposure and Parameters are consistent for that individual Trader.

With virtually all Units today from an IntraDay Level, if proper Stop Placement was utilized then  a Fractional Loss was had and we move on to Trade Another Day.

The “Speed” at which The Yen surged was only in about a 4-Hour Window, where the 400-500 Pip Moves are certainly not a regular occurrence…. OR Are They???

Here is where my “Rhetorical” Question comes in once again…

“Was The Yen Surge today a big shock and surprise?… Crude Oil?… Gold?… The Queen and The Euro?…”

Let’s have a look and see some Indications of “Market Memory” that may provide us with some Insights.

Here are The Monthly Views of Crude, Gold, The Fiber, and The Queen, so give them a Click for Clarity as they are rather “Compressed” with The Fib Variant Extensions and Projections.

Post-Time is 2:00 GMT but of course on Monthly Views… We really do not have to worry about “Accurate” Time!… hee hee hee…   ;-)

 

Gold looks to The Fib Variant Projection here stemming from the March 2001 Low to the May 2003 Spike High, giving us a “relative” 38.2% to 139.2% Projected Area.

 

 

 

 

 

We could have “anticipated” the relative Price Action here… so let’s see how we fair on Crude.

Crude provides even greater “Accuracy” here with the massive Bear Flag Formation as Price reaches the Fib Variant with a Variation of about 40 cents… nice indeed!

 

 

 

 

 

… And The Queen?… Jackpot for Her Majesty!

 

 

 

 

 

How about The Fiber ?…  A little more “Subjective” depending on where use wish to Fib from… I tend to work with Clusters and Confluence all the time as all of you well know, so I chose both The Upleg and Downleg Variants.

We still get a “Close” 90-Pip Variant Range here…

 

 

 

 

 

 

So there we have it!

By incorporating Longer-Term Views in your Work, you certainly do not have to be an Active Position Trader!

It is all relative, and like everything else in Life…

We can usually Find Out Where We are Going By Remembering Where We have Been…

 

Please join me, as always,  for the 6:30 GMT “Currency Majors Technical Perspective” Report, so I will see you in a few hours!

;-)

 

 UPDATE @ 8:00 GMT:

The “Currency Majors Technical Perspective” Report  has been published, and we are already seeing signs of Accumulation as we have Hourly Bear Flags across many Currency Units!

Keep an eye on these Retracments, as even on The Majors, we are seeing potential “Breaching” Activity that is already “Negating” the Formations. As always… these can be “loose” Formations and certainly do not have to be “Textbook Beautiful”… as long as they hold their Function.

Please have a visit on The FXstreet Calendar and Home Page as our FXstreet Advisor and Myself bring you another “Action-Packed” Edition of “The Bank of England Interest Rate Live Coverage” @ 10:45 GMT!

See You Soon and of course, plenty of Updates to come here on The Blog today!

;-)

 

 

 

 

Tags: crude, emotion, EUR/USD, Extension, Fibonacci, GBP/USD, gold, Long Term, Month, Projection, response, view

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