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Neutrality Keeps Strength and Weakness in View

Posted on July 14, 2009 at 19:47 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim Salem

 

Greetings Everyone, and welcome to Wednesday!

While we have seen IntraDay Momentum and Volatility leading to solid Reversals in Price Behavior… the Ranges we work with are still Clear, Defined, and Intact.

As we come out of a  Risk-Averse Climate, we will not “logically” expect to see Risk Appetite completely reverse the “Holdings of the Day”, as they say.

In Art, Painters will “see” Line, Plane, Composition, and Color… but we still know the “Nature” of the Color will change and transfigure as it begins to actually dry.

In my deeply personal and esoteric View here… our current Climate of Price Behavior within most Units is very similar to this Analogy.

As we talked about early on Tuesday at the NYSE Open, we have plenty of Activity and Momentum in The Markets to work with, but we lack any semblance of clear Directionality moving forward.

Welcome to the Summer.

Welcome to Uncertainty.

Welcome to some of the exact Reasons for Why We Do What We Do!

 

In all seriousness, Climates such as these are what Currency Traders live for…. a lack of “Real” Institutional Volume that we are already beginning to see in the Correlations and Participation of related Markets… and the Anticipation and Seasonality of Energy as an entire Sector as the world’s largest consumer of Energy, The U.S., looks to travel and move about in a very complex economic environment. 

Is it truly any “shock” why Crude Oil is the “Leading Indicator” of The Day in the last few weeks?

Work with it or not… it is part of the Equation of the Trading Work we all are doing, so it is advisable to be mindful of.

In any event, let’s check in with The Loonie, the Dollar Canadian Unit, as a “Proxy” for Crude Oil… and I emphasise PROXY.

We often hear of working with the USD/CAD as the same as “Trading Oil”.

This is ill-advised and simply incorrect.

While the Correlation between these two is always deeply high, we must accept the two Products on their own Merit… Period.

Crude Oil… whether as a Futures Contract or as the Continuous Contract on the NYMEX… is a Product with it’s own Characteristics, Criteria, and Tendencies.

The Canadian Dollar is the same… and should be given the same Respect.

 

The Canadian Economy does not solely rely on Crude Oil Outflows… so why should we consider it as such?

 

Here we have The Hourly View, so give the Capture a Click for various Levels.

Post-Time is 00:50 GMT.

 

We can immediately see the Strength of The Loonie Itself against The Dollar is “extreme” compared to Its overall Crude Oil Correlation, so we have an Outlier right there in terms of Similarities.

Price looks for a significant Bounce here from the Daily Dynamic Support Confluence with the 23.6% Weekly Downleg Fib Variant.’The Bear Flag in formation here holds “heavy weight” upon it, due to the Uni-Directionality of the Downtrend…. but a Clip of the 1.1440’s will give The Dollar a bit of Oxygen in the Immediate-Term.

 

 

 

The Unit is surely one to be Mindful of concerning a Corrective Move on the IntraDay basis, so we will check in after the 6:30 GMT “Currency Majors Technical Perspective” Report during my next Blog Update.

Allow me to express my sincerest Appreciation to all of you who follow the “Currency Majors Technical Perspective” Reports I assist with for our FXStreet Chief Analyst and my friend and Colleague, Valeria Bednarik.

We are proud to have achieved the  #1 Position for the “Top 10 Forex Reports”  concerning Readers and Page Views for the month of June!

This is because of all of You… Period.

 Valeria and I are simply pleased that our Writings and Views are beneficial, and we hope them to continue to be.

We are quite different in our approaches to The Markets, and at the same time, we hold many “Universal” Perspectives that all Traders hold, so we hope we are able to reach many different types of Trading “Styles” as we move along.

Thanks Again, Everyone, for your support… It is sincerely appreciated by both of us!

:-)

 

 

 

 

Tags: Art, Canada, energy, equity, Loonie, oil, painting, perspective, Sector, Stock, USD/CAD, view, vision

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