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The BoC Overnight Rate and The Loonie

Posted on July 20, 2009 at 19:36 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim Salem

 

Greetings Everyone, and Welcome to Tuesday!

We turn our attention to the Bank of Canada and the Overnight Call Rate Decision at 13:00 GMT.

While the BoC deals with much of the same Sentiment and Information as most other Global Central Banks, Quantitative Easing really is not in the picture as long as The Canadian Dollar Itself looks to Correction.

The recent Strength of The Loonie looks to its conventional “Inverse” Correlation with Crude Oil, although this may become worrisome for the BoC, as they may simply “Jawbone” The Loonie lower which will provide clear Impetus for The USD/CAD Unit to rally.

Even without any Impetus or Macro-Factors involved… Price worked the Daily Bear Flag here with extreme accuracy as we spent the last several Sessions retracing price for a potential “Re-Test” of the 1.0700 Lows.

The BoC may simply not let this take place, and may implement a “Verbal Intervention” before Price moves with additional Canadian Dollar Strength.

We can see a Correlation here with Price beginning to actually “Slow” and consolidate a bit… with the Canadian Dollar’s Appreciation of about 2.56% in the last Month, as opposed to only about 0.67% in the last Day as we reach some “Basing” at the 1.1000 Handle of Static Support.

Here is The Daily View, so give it a Click for various Levels of Reference.

Post-Time is 00:40 GMT.

 

 

The Hourly View gives us a Clear View of the Accumulation that led to Consolidation over the past several days…. with some Wedge/Symmetrical Triangle Formations.

The “Fractal” Nature of the Price Action is surely “leaning” to more Depreciation in The Unit in terms of Directionality… but The BoC could certainly step in here with a Surprise ( although their .25% Level now is about as low as they can go…), or Verbal Rhetoric.

 

 

 

 

Well…so far so good with my Internet Connections here in the Desert Heat… so please join me right around 6:30 GMT for the European “Currency Majors Technical Perspective” Report, as we look into some Immediate-Term Detail with The Four Majors!

I hope to see you all then!

:-)

 

 

 

Tags: Bank of Canada, Canada, crude oil, export, import, Loonie, USD/CAD

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