Posted on July 17, 2009 at 7:36 in Commentary, Live Webinars by Tim SalemNo Comments »

 

Greetings, Everyone and Happy Friday!

My Apologies for my delay… I had a major Service Issue here, and all is fine and back to normal with The Servers and my Provider!

We jump right back in and in getting my Platforms back up and running, I immediately noticed a Double-Top Formation on the Hourly View of The Queen.

Give The Capture a Click, and Post-Time is about one hour ahead of the NYSE Open at 12:30 GMT.

 

 

Price clips the 1.6460’s Static Resistance Area, as we now move towards the 1.6200 Handle with significance.

The Elipsed Area from last Week will look to attract Price to these Congestion Zones, and if Price continues to Breach with Dollar Strength, then the 1.6080’s will also be In View.

 

 

 

We will l follow along with more Updates moving into the London Close, as well as throughout our last Trading Day of the Week!

Please join me again, and it is great to be back with you!

:-)

 

 

 

 


Posted on June 15, 2009 at 9:00 in Commentary, Live Webinars by Tim SalemNo Comments »

 

Greetings again, Everyone!

We see a unique situation emerging out of Russia joining “The Party” with the “Jawboning” Positives for The Dollar… despite their Cuts concerning TICS Data and Treasury Reserves Inflows for April.

Risk Aversion returns for the time being with The Dollar and Yen Strength as we begin the Week and move through the European Session and into the U.S. Session.

We are right at The NYSE Open, and this should bode negatively for Equities moving forward, as Equity Futures were bidding lower… and now trading lower…as we head into The Open… so our “Inverse” Correlation is there… just as it was with The Yen and Asian-Pacific Equities several hours ago. 

Equities are slowly pulling out of a month-long Consolidation, so this will be a Factor to Watch for Currency Interests as well.

The Key here for Traders is obviously to what degree this Dollar ”Sentiment” will last.

Again… in always considering my “Both Sides of The Fence” Scenarios… ( As I always say… This is an Equal-Opportunity Blog… ;-)… We can simply see additional Bullish Views in standing aside for even better Levels of Retracement and Correction for more Attractive Price Points.

Bearish Views are surely already taking advantage of the current Price Action, and are now bolstered by the Russian Rhetoric as well as Gold and Oil Corrections, to simply Work The Dollar as far as they can in the current Climate.

 Let’s check on The Fiber… since It has regained Its “Weight of Pressure” with German Inflationary Concerns, as The Dollar arguably has more Strength against this Major than many other Units.

Give The Capture a Click for Various Levels of Reference, and Post-Time is 14:00 GMT.

 

 

Coming off of the “Hourly Head and Shoulders” Formation, Price looks to the 1.3800’s Daily Static Support as the next Area in View.

Any Corrective Sentiment will need to Clip Dynamic and Static Resistance Areas at the 1.3810’s and the 1.3830’s Area in the Immediate-Term.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Of course… more Updates on the way as The Dollar and Yen bring Risk Aversion back to The Table, so please join me!

:-)

 

 

 


Posted on June 12, 2009 at 10:39 in Commentary, Live Webinars by Tim SalemNo Comments »

Greetings once again, Everyone!

As we move throughout The U.S. Session… The Dollar and Yen are seeing consistent Volatility as they Work within their Larger Respective Ranges.

Gold and Oil can still be Valid “Indicators” of Sentiment here… as their Corrections signify Weaker Commodity Price for these Two Units today… and does NOT mean a Stronger “Fair Value” for The Dollar Itself… in my personal View.

While these Corrections may certainly continue and bode well for The Dollar Bulls… to see any real significant inherent Strength… The Dollar needs to Clip Key Levels of Resistance on Corrections with most Currency Units.

Of Course… We can view this Several Ways….

The Dollar Bulls will already be in Positions here on Counter-Trend Sentiment… or they will be waiting for Breaks of Key Levels to continue on and participate in further Counter ( Dollar and Yen) Strength.

On the “Other Side of The Fence”, Traders who favor Trend Work will look for Key Retracement and Corrective Areas to Hold for more Bullish Builds to resume The Underlying Trends and participate in this Fashion.

Now… whatever “Type” of Trader you find yourself to be… The “Universal Key” in my personal View… is to have Patience and WAIT for Key levels to be either Respected or Rejected as we move forward.

Let’s have a look at The USD/JPY and The AUD/USD on the Hourly IntraDay Basis, as we “measure the Depth” of the Ranges and Corrections.

Give the Captures a Click for Levels of Reference and Commentary above… and Post-Time is 15:40 GMT.

 

 

The Hourly Dollar Yen sees Clear Range-Bound Consolidation…although Dollar Strength is in an Uptrend Hourly Channel.

Continuation sees The Unit looking for the Highs at the 101.00 Handle in the Mid-Term if the underlying Momentum can be maintained.

 

 

 

 

The Aussie shows the Clear Corrective Sentiment we have been speaking of… which is similar in most of the Stronger-Beta-Units such as The Queen and even The Kiwi.

 

 

 

 

 

 

As always… I will be back with you for a few more Updates to end our Trading Week!

Please Stay Tuned!

:-)

 

 

 


Posted on June 12, 2009 at 2:08 in Commentary, Live Webinars by Tim SalemNo Comments »

 

Greetings again, Everyone!

We see the other “Area of Focus” on the Current Dollar and Yen Intra-Day Weakness, as The Yen also follows several Key Areas and Channels moving forward.

Here are the Hourly Views of EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY with Commentary above, so give the Captures a Click for various Reference Levels.

Post-Time is 7:10 GMT.

The Euro Yen looks towards the Daily Static Resistance Area of the 138.30’s for a Larger “Re-Test” of the 139.20’s Resistance Level. If Price can be Held above this Area and form a New Resistance-Becomes-Support “Transitive Rollover” Area… then the 140.00 and 141.00 Areas are back In View in the Near-Term. Any Downside-Risk Corrections may be limited back to the 137.10’s Static Support, down to just slightly out of The Channel at the 136.50’s Dynamic Support Area.

 

 

 

 

 

While The Queen looks towards 1.6800 in the near-Term, Her Cross, Pound Yen, looks towards the 163.00 Figure in the near-Term on the back of some of that Pound Momentum. Continuation through The Figure sees the 164.00 Handle next, as any significant Corrections should be Contained in the Near-Term by the 159.00/158.50’s Static Support Areas.

 

 

 

 

 

 

As always, plenty of Updates as we move throughout the Final Trading Day of the Week, and for more Immediate-Term Detail on the Four Majors, please have a look at the just-published  “Currency Majors Technical Perspective” Report.

Please Join Me Again, and I Hope to See You Soon!

;-)

 

 

 


Posted on June 11, 2009 at 19:53 in Commentary, Live Webinars by Tim SalemNo Comments »

 

Greetings once again, Everyone and Welcome to Friday!

I have the “Big Daily Blog” Entry a bit early today so I can give more Content as we head into the Final Day of Trading for the Week!

 

At the NYSE Close… The Dow and S&P 500 clear the Day in Positive Territory, with The CRB Commodities Index reaching 7-Month Highs.

Gold and Crude continued on after Shallow Pullback in the Week, as Continuous Crude on The NYMEX closes at $72.68 at also a 7-Month High and a 3-day Continuous Rally.

EIA is now calling for Higher Demand, which will keep The Black Gold Well-Bid in the Near-Term.

The Higher Oil Price… and Expectation of It Continuing… sees a subtle “Check” of Inflation as well as the Continuance of Dollar Sentiments being “Out Of Favor”…bodes well as another Element in the Macro-Recovery Situation overall.

The Low-Yield/Safe Haven Aspect of The Dollar and Yen that we have seen all Year are slowly giving way towards a bit of Risk-Taking with more Capital Inflows into more “Riskier” Asset Classes such as Commodities.

The Treasury Auctions still weigh heavily as a Larger Concern in my Personal View… as The Fed needs to continue this Practice to be “On Target” for their overall Planned Purchases.

The ever-increasing Yields in Bonds casting a “Shadow” on these Treasury Purchases, the Pressure for The Fed is even more tanamount here for their increasing Treasury Purchases moving forward.

This Primary Component is Deeply Dollar Negative… and is already sensed by he markets on a Macro-View.

We are seeing this already by the simple Fact that Technically… all of our Dollar and yen Strength has been “Event-and Data-Driven”… so it is “Plastic and False”.

It is NOT due to the inherent positive Factors within The Dollar Itself.

We can use The Swissy and The Kiwi to illustrate various “Degrees” of Strength… similar to what we did on our last Blog Update with the Euro and The Aussie…

Here are The Daily and Hourly Views for various Levels of Reference and Commentary above, with Post-Time being 00:50 GMT.

 

 

The Swissy Daily still holds Downside-Risk Pressure, as the 1.0755 Daily Dynamic Support is Clipped as Price looks to turn the New “Transitive Rollover” into Resistance moving into the 1.0680’s Static Support Area.

 

 

 

 

 

The Hourly View give more Insight and Clarity as Price remains “Anchored” by The Downtrend Channel, and moves in Symmetrical Fractal Formations. An Immediate-Term Bounce may be seen towards the 1.0750’s, and a Rejection here is probable in consideration of The Channel Behavior.

 

 

 

 

 

The NZD/USD Daily continues North with Adherence to the Longer-Term Daily Uptrend Channel from April, as Price sees the Daily Static Resistance at the .6000 Figure In Sight.

 

 

 

 

 

The Hourly View sees a potential Immediate-Term Correction to the .6350’s Area of “Transitive Rollover” Support.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Please feel Welcome, as always, to join me for The Currency Majors Technical Perspectives” Report right around 6:30/7:00 GMT, and another Blog Update to follow!

I hope to See all of You then!

;-)

 

 

 

 


Posted on June 11, 2009 at 9:31 in Commentary, Live Webinars by Tim SalemNo Comments »

 

Greetings again, Everyone!

We are about One Hour into the NYSE Open, as Positive Retail Sales and falling Jobless Claims bode well for the Equities and Indices in the Near-Term.

The Dollar Itself remains generally “Mixed” and a bit “Independent” in Movement…as we see Hourly IntraDay Weakness in most Majors but Strength against It “Comrade in Low-Yielding Arms”… The Yen.

Macros here include the general “Fear and Uncertainty” of China’s Perspectives concerning the U.S. Reserves and Treasury Yields… as well as some Rhetoric “In The Air” with The ECB and other EU Entities with a Concern for continued Strength in The Euro moving forward.

While this may be early Signs of “Jawboning”… Dollar Bulls have another Component in their Arsenal here to continue Accumulation and push for Reversals with Dollar and yen Strength as we continue on.

Please be Mindful here… as the Market “Noise” and Volatility may get heavy for those of You who Work on an IntraDay Basis.

Let’s have a look at The Fiber and The Aussie to illustrate how The Dollar is having varying “Degrees” of Strength with Its current ”Mixed Profile”…

Here are the Hourly Views, so give them a Click for Various Levels of Reference and Commentary above.

Post-Time is 14:30 GMT.

 

 

The Fiber, while showing current Dollar Weakness, is still locked in a Larger Range now between the Dynamic Support and Resistance Fib Variant Areas of 1.3916 and 1.4122 in the Immediate-Term. 

Our “Transitive Rollover” of Resistance-Becoming-Support is still very Valid and has been for several Days now… this is Indicative of The overall Range-Bound Tendencies we are in.

 

 

 

 

The Aussie Hold an almost Opposing View…a the “Degree” of Dollar Weakness is full of much more Momentum and a more “Obstacle-Filled” Environment as The Aussie has The Commodity Metals Complex behind it, China’s Trade Interests, and Positive Carry to keep The Currency Buoyant in the Near to Mid-Term.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Please join me again as we move forward throughout the Day… as more Updates are surely on the way for You!

;-)

 

 

 


Posted on June 4, 2009 at 8:27 in Live Webinars by adminNo Comments »


Posted on May 28, 2009 at 20:28 in Commentary, Live Webinars by Tim SalemNo Comments »

 

Greetings, Everyone and Welcome to Friday!

Our final Trading Day of the week certainly sees no “Rest for the Weary” as they say… as U.S. GDP, The EuroZone CPI, and plenty of other Data keep Traders busy all the way through until Happy Hour!

With all of the Commotion surrounding U.S. Bond Yields and the infamous “Inflation vs. Deflation” Debate going on here in The States… the Japanese have certainly taken advantage of this situation by the Outflows out of the U.S. and Higher U.S. Bond Yields in the last few days.

This has caused the Yen to “weaken” which may appear as part of our “Counter-Intuition” Menu of Tricks.

BUT…The Key here is what is happening with their OWN Bonds and Yields, as they deal with their falling 10Y Notes by buying up… and “Borrowing” from the Surplus of U.S. Treasuries.

Now..after a Fall for a couple of Days… they may begin to rise on  Rhetoric of a “Dovish” Recovery taking some time in Japan.

The Yen Itself handles this by some Initial Weakness through Thursday… but now simply looks to Stabilize and establish IntraDay Ranges full of Consolidation.

Of course… the Current State of The Yen in the Immediate-Term is resting on some Inherent Strength as Industrial Output in Japan gained significantly… which may play right into our Conversation about Capital Inflows coming through the Sea of Japan Inland for a nice “Breath of Fresh Air” for the Japanese Economy as a whole.

 We check with, in my personal opinion, what are the Three Main Yen Crosses…  EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY, and AUD/JPY on the Hourly Views to see this “Muted” Action as of Writing-Time.

Give the Captures a Click for Levels and Commentary, and Post-Time is 1:30 GMT.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Be sure to join me in about 5 Hours for our final 6:30/7:00 GMT “Currency Majors Technical Perspective” Report for this Week… and another Blog Update, of course!

See You Then!

:-)

 

 

 


Posted on May 20, 2009 at 2:24 in Commentary, Live Webinars by Tim SalemNo Comments »

 

Greetings Again, Everyone!

We bring back our two Commodity Currencies from our previous Update at 1:00 GMT… only to find them under Accumulative Consolidation as we await Data Points, as well as Price simply looking ahead to Deep or Shallow Retracements… or perhaps none at all!

Consolidation can work this way for us concerning Price…

When we have such Strong and Solid Momentum, Price does not usually require “Classic Technical” Pullbacks or Corrections… as we are not really dealing with “Impulsive and Reactionary” Directionality.

In many instances… a bit of “Rest” through Accumulation is all that is needed for Price to continued on It Way.

While The Canadian Dollar waits for CPI and the Australian Dollar holds Its Gold Correlation… The Queen has to concern Itself with upcoming Bank of England Minutes at 8:30 GMT, as Quantitative Easing is still on the Agenda of Concern for the U.K.

Here are the Hourly Views of all three Units to see where we are moving forward… and where we may go as we move throughout The European Session.

Give the Captures a Click, and Post-Time is 7:30 GMT.

 

 

 

 

 

 

For more Insight and Immediate-Term Detail on the Four Majors, feel free to take a look at the “Currency Majors Technical Perspective” Report  just published, and I will see you soon for another Blog Update, as always !

;-)

 

 

 

 


Posted on May 7, 2009 at 9:09 in Live Webinars by admin1 Comment »