Greetings, Everyone!

My Apologies for a lack of Updates for the rest of today… I was occupied most of the Day with some Technology concerns and working on my Servers!

I will catch everyone up tomorrow morning, as we get back into our “Thoughts for The Weekend” Ideas!

Please join me then!

Greetings Again, Everyone!

As we enter the London Session for a Brief Update, we see significant IntraDay Correction with Dollar and Yen Strength, so let’s use the USD/CAD and GBP/JPY for Illustrative Examples here as new Key Levels are potentially seen.

Here are the Hourly Views, so give them a Click for Commentary.

Post-Time is 7:15 GMT.

Please have a look at the just-posted Currency Majors Technical Perspective Report, as the Correlations will be evident there as the Chart Captures were just slightly Pre-Mature in illustrating this Activity!

Greetings Again, Everyone!

Our two Major Yen Cross Units, GBP/JPY and EUR/JPY, still remain in larger Consolidating Ranges since our previous Visit with them at 2:00 GMT.

While we did find Bullish Hourly Sentiment… we also cannot Clip the larger Horizontal Ranges here, as Asian-Pacific Equities only give us slight Bullish Guidance in considering Correlative Behavior.

With the U.K. Inflation Report and Industrial Production out of the EU due soon, we may see a “Catalysts” here for Movement and Breaks of these Two… as we know with the Yen Crosses… they tend to “Behave as One” as one Unit can provide Buoyancy or Deflation for the others.

Here is the 4-Hour View of Pound Yen and the Hourly View of  Euro Yen… where Bearish Momentum in the Immediate-to-Near Term is favored, as the Corrections look to continue as Price tried to pull out of the Accumulation Areas of Consolidation.

Give the Captures a Click for Commentary, and Post-Time is 7:45 GMT.

More IntraDay Detail on the Majors can be found in the just-published “Currency Majors Technical Perspective” Report, and of course, more Updates on the way as we head through Europe and into the New York Session!

Greetings Again, Everyone!

The U.S. overall has lost about 5.1 million Jobs since the Recession “officially” began… although NFP Data Points Headline Numbers are largely are “In Line” with Consensus this month.

( Of course…it is the Numbers “Inside” the Numbers that are the true Key  of any Data Release…)

We will not revisit the Macro-Data here, and simply move on with Her Majesty and see we have certainly appreciated in Price moving forward.

Here is the DAILY Capture, so give it a Click, and Post-Time is 14:15 GMT.

( Now… all of you did not think I could go all week without my Longer-Term Views, did you?…. You know me better than that!… hee hee…    

My original thoughts on some Dollar and Yen Strength may come to Fruition today… as we will certainly have plenty of Institutional Profit-Taking and Covering since it is Friday and then end still the end of the Quarter/Month as well.

We may simply see this in Consolidative Retracements as we move towards the London Close… so we will stay on top of the situation.

I will be back once again for another Update, and we will check in then!

Greeting to a new week, Everyone!

We continue on this week from last weeks’ fallout of Macro-Event Risk… as the FOMC Decision is on course this week, as well as the Bank of Japan, the G20 Meeting Rhetoric, and the BoE MPC and RBA Meetings Minutes.

TIC Data at 13:00 GMT may be interesting… considering the recent Press Conference from Wen Jiabo in China, and his blatant concerns about Chinese Inflows and Assets in U.S. Treasuries.

While all of you know I am not a Fundamental Trader in terms of “Style”… I do enjoy and find it essential in my own work to be enlightened as to what is going on.

As we know… any Data Points… be they actual Release or “Rhetoric”, do affect the Long-Term Cycles of the FX World,  as they give us a “Bellwether” in looking out several months concerning general ”Sentiment”.

In the Interim… we simply look to the Technicals in our Tool Box and move forward.

At the risk of annoying my “Partners”… the CVJ Fan Club Guys… I wish to visit the Euro and the Euro Yen out on my Longer-Terms Views to see where we are.

“CVJ!… We knew the IntraDay views would not last!… We knew you would break down and go to your Monthly and Weekly Views… so we have a message for you… Off with your Head!…”

They should be on TV, shouldn’t they… a real trio of characters for the stage, these guys…hee hee…     

Here are the Monthly, Daily, and Hourly views of the Euro, so give them a Click.

Post-Time is 3:15 GMT.

Failure in the near-term may propel a stronger Dollar to the 1.2800 area of Support, followed by 1.2760’s/50’s and the lower Channel Line.

A clean momentum push through the 1.2960’s will meet with Major Resistance at the 1.3000 Handle in which short-term Bearish Views may be favored… as well as highly probable  Options Barriers.

EUR/JPY is moving in a very similar fashion, and here are the Daily and Hourly Views.

A Bearish View will really only come into favor here on the Hourly if we can breach the 124.00 Handle, while Bullish Views will gain significant confidence violating the 128.00 Handle with ease.

So here we are… Continuation and Consolidaton.

A Catalyst is needed… so we will check back on these two during the European Session, as always!

Happy Wednesday to All !

What a glorious and enchanting Day!

The Birds are singing…The Sun is shining…and Big Ben and Friends are arriving later from the Genius Chamber to enlighten us on Monetary Policy !  

Sort of puts a Song in your Heart, doesn’t it !

“We’ll stick to watching the Grass grow!”  , says the CVJ Fan Club Guys…    ;-)

Well…in my view..an aspect of curiosity will be the topic of Inflation.

Would you like to know why I am curious?…what floats my boat?…what spins my wheels???…

THIS!

(Click once for the Captures, and Post-Time is 2:15 GMT)

Give this Capture a click to continue!

 These “potential” large Monthly Flag Patterns represent phases of Price Accumulation…so we will see in a few months which “Flag” comes to fruition.

 Always remember, though…that in a situation of Deflation..the “Bottom” is a super Grey Area and can last much longer than we “expect”.

Inflation, on the other side of the street, can appear in an “instant”…much sooner than we “expect”.

Now…for a long-overdue “Built-In” Lesson!…

REMOVE THE WORD “EXPECT” …FROM EVERY ASPECT OF YOUR TRADING WORK !

Hi Everyone!

The poor Queen!…

We have been trying to rescue her for quite some time now on the Blog here and there…

With her Battle with the Euro, and Her issues on the home front…She has continued to struggle.

It should be no surprise to anyone that the U.K. is officially in “Recession Mode”…with a sharp decline in GDP, and ironically…overall Retail Sales were up a bit.

So what is the Key here?

In my personal view…it is all about “Market Sentiment”.

The Pound itself has been “out of favor” with the anticipations several months ago of the “Black Plague” of the U.S. issues spreading around the globe.

The Yen certainly has not helped things with a “Uni-Directional” view in slamming every Major Currency that comes to its’ shores.

Let’s take a look at an Hourly view, and see what our earlier Data Points brought to the Party…

Analysis and Commentary on the Capture…so give it a click!

(Post-Time is 14:40 GMT)

We will check in with the Channel action Sunday…as well as our Gold Post from the earlier Post.

Our Pennant did, indeed, break and hit our Magenta target there…so give it a look if you have a moment.

Happy Monday to All !

With a quiet Data Point week for the U.S., the Martin Luther King Jr. Holiday today, and the Barack Obama Presidential Inauguration tomorrow…I thought we would go for a nice cool Ski Trip in Switzerland…so let’s have a look at the Swissy!

“CVJ…What…You are not going to the Inauguration?….What happened?…Did they lose your Ticket?…hee hee hee”… I can hear the CVJ Fan Club Guys say…

 ”How did your hometown Arizona Cardinals make it to the Super Bowl, anyway???”,  they grumble…

My answer is the same as in Trading:

“Always Expect the Unexpected!”…..  

OK…grab your Gear and let’s hit the Swiss slopes!

I have always liked the “linear” nature of the Swissy, and with its’ tight correlation to the Euro…these two Units do compliment each other.

But…as I have said many times before…these Correlations are not exact and constant!

So always be mindful of this as you work with these two Pairs, and consider them on their own singular merit and their respective Economies behind them.

Analysis largely on the Charts again today, so be sure to click them once for the Captures!

(Post-Time is 3:00 GMT)

We will check in later today, as with the U.S. largely out of the trading climate today…we may have a few surprises.

Now…perhaps I will stay in the Ski Lodge…

The CVJ Guys packed all the gear…so my Skis may be a “little off”…if you know what I mean!

hee hee hee…  

Happy Monday everyone!

I do apologize for the delay here…I am on my way back home today through the desert, and the Tumbleweeds seem to be taking over the highway!  

I will be back on schedule tomorrow, and in the meantime…prepare yourselves for some thin Markets with rather range-bound activity.

Hi All !

We are seeing some interesting interplay over the past several days in the Foreign Exchange world.

The Dollar and the Yen are retreating, retracing, correcting, and re-evaluating their strategical stance.

Is this new?…have we not seen this before?

Of course we have!

Currencies do this day in and day out as a matter of transacting the “Exchange” between one another…but this time…it may be a little different.

All of you know by now I am not a bottom picker, top picker, or predictor.

I only have one Master… “Sensei Price”.

One immediate and basic reason we are seeing the Dollar and Yen “safe-haven” Inflows come off is due to the anticipation of a .50bps Rate Cut tomorrow…and the CBOT Futures have literally price-in a .75bps Rate Cut by more than 70% certainty.

The Dollar is at around a 2-month Low against the Euro, and Her Majesty…Cable…sure has come back from the depths of the English Channel,  hasn’t She!

What is interesting here is to observe how both the EUR/USD and the GBP/USD are finding their tight correlation again…as well as how their “individual” strengths are playing out against each other.

In MY view…it is more enlightening to see how OTHER economies and currency pairs are reacting to a potential change in Paradigm shift….as opposed to just looking at a Dollar-related pair.

Let’s have a look at the “Battle”, and see where we are floating around…

(click once for the capture) 

 The Fractal “stairstepping” here really shows us the “Push and Pull” Price action between the two economies.

A test and potential break of the .9000 Handle is possible, although be aware they are surely massive Options Barriers at this level.

 For “BOTH sides of the fence”…MONITORING how Price behaves at this level will either confirm or invalidate your view….irregardless of if you are bullish or bearish.

Let’s observe tomorrow if we have any marked reaction to the U.S. Fed Rate.

As always…the Key here is what “Bernanke and Friends” choose to reveal in their Commentary of the accompanying Policy Statement and Minutes.

If they are rather Dovish about “easing”  the Rate to “0″, then we have high probabilities for continued Dollar strength in the immediate near-term….signaling a Risk Aversion climate to continue.

If they are Hawkish and assertive, then our new potential “Paradigm” of selling off the Dollar will certainly continue its’ activity of the last several days.

Of course…our current macro-climate of the Markets ignoring virtually all Data Points and Fundamental activity will surely breach all of my “logic” in the first place!