Greetings, Everyone and Welcome to Monday!

We begin the Week, as we mentioned yesterday, with that continual “Push and Pull” on an IntraDay basis of Risk Aversion and Risk Appetite that we have been working through for months now.

Crude and Gold are up and slightly overextended on The Hourly Views, and the Dow and S& P are up a bit as of Writing-Time as well.

Let’s have a look at a couple of Yen Crosses that are leaning towards the “Risk Appetite” side for now on the Hourly Views, although Price is retracing…as is Gold and Crude as well.

Here are the Captures, so give them a Click as always.

Post-Time is 15:20 GMT.

The Pound Yen looks to build a new Upleg, and actually most of The Yen Crosses do as well. We consolidate at the Confluence Area of 38.2%  of the Weekly Downleg as Price is still adhering to and working that massive Weekly Bear Flag Formation…. as the larger Daily Channel Lower Trendline is providing Dynamic Support moving forward.

Aussie Yen is very similar in Price Action and Sentiment… as it looks towards the 77.00 Handle for a bit of Accumulation that will lead to Consolidation.

A slight Bounce will return Price to the 75.00 Handle where if we consider the recent Upleg… we may see some Bullish Builds coming into Play as Price moves along.

The excessive heat here has been giving me some connection issues, but hopefully all is fine now!… and as long as this remains so, I will have more Updates on the way for all of you!

Greetings again, Everyone!

We are about 75 Minutes into The NYSE Open where we see The Dow and S&P 500 holding the slightest of Gains, coming off of some Accumulation that we are also seeing in many of The Major Markets and Currency Units as well.

Counter-Trend Views always enjoy this type of Price Action, where even “early” in the European Session we saw “modest Gains” in The Fiber, The Queen, and some Yen Crosses as “Bounces” came and went after my Writing of the 6:30 GMT “Currency Majors” Tech Report.

The Pacific Dollars and Crosses certainly have not been spared here as well… despite the “relative health” of The RBA and RBNZ as we check in on The Aussie and Aussie Yen… since we have used them as fine Examples of Position Trading Perspectives for months now.

Also… in a geographically related Area,  I was a bit surprised as my Good Friends in China decide to not pick up on the continual “Back and Forth” Rhetoric of the World Reserve Currency Issue. With the Chinese President departing early to deal with the very sensitive Ethnic Issues going on now… we certainly know The Idea of The RMB as The World’s Reserve Currency is rather far from President Jintao’s Mind.

( In addition… in my personal View…there are so many underlying Issues with varying Levels of The Chinese Economy and Political Hierarchy System… that I do not know where to begin… )

A Story for Another Blog Entry!

We take a look now at The Aussie and Aussie Yen on The Dailies where we can see Accumulating Activity… but it is really The Hourly Views where we see The Risk-Averse Damage done.

Give The Captures a Click as always for Various Levels with Commentary above, and Post-Time is 14:45 GMT.

The AUD/USD Daily still holds our Static and Dynamic Magenta Areas of Support and Resistance, although we can see the 200-220 Pip Depreciation over the last two Day here…

On the Hourly, a nice “Wedge” or even a “Descending Triangle” Formation is seeing Price attempt to Clip “north”… as we have mentioned earlier concerning The Majors where this “Noise” is evident in light of The G-8 and attempts at maintaining various Support Areas in most Units so far today.

The Aussie Yen Daily sees similar Price Action, with our Depreciating Correction clearly in View… and finding Superb Confluence with the July 2008 Monthly Downleg Fib Variant @ the 73.86 38.2% Area.

 My “Transitive Rollover” Areas are clear here, as they usually are in the Longer-Term Trending Environments… so it will not surprise me if we see Bullish Builds coming in here off of these Corrections.

In the interest of Full Disclosure here, most of you know these Two Units have been active Position Trades for me for Months now… but as always… I do not want to “bore you to tears” without focusing on The IntraDay Work that many of you enjoy complementing your own Trading Styles… )

Of course, we will check in with The EIA and API Crude Oil Inventories as they emerge, as well as checking on Gold… which we have not looked at in several Sessions!

I will have more Updates to come as always, so please join me!

Greetings again, Everyone!

As is usually the case ( but certainly not always!…), we see the Sharp and Angular Depreciation of most Currency Units and their Dollar and Yen Strengths take some of that Momentum of the past few Sessions to initiate Sharp Reversals and Breaks… otherwise known as “Short Squeezes”… “Dead Cat Bounces”… or “Bear Market Rallies”.

Whichever Term you wish to use…the Result is the same… where we have Sentiment of Price being “Re-Set” by Institutional Views and/or Rhetoric and Events…. in most cases.

We have May Existing Home Sales coming in lower than expected..but overall… relatively In-Line with Consensus… as The Richmond Fed Index does as well… so these are largely “Benign’ factors moving forward in term of Market Sentiment.

With a lot of “Focus” on The Euro, let’s check in with other Variables concerning The Dollar and The Yen with the AUD/JPY and the NZD/USD.

Give the Hourly Captures a Click, and Post-Time is 15:40 GMT.

The Kiwi does not quite feel the inherent Dollar Weakness in this case, as The Dollar looks to regain some of Its Corrective losses in the past few Hours.

While the .6360’s “Transitive Rollover” Area is still holding and functioning “correctly” as Resistance, we may see the Swing Momentum simply take Price back to the .6240’s Static Support Levels in the Near-Term.

The Kiwi needs a significant break and Hold above the .6360’s for any solid Bullish Momentum to continue from the IntraDay Perspective.

Aussie Yen, on the other hand, still retains the “historical Momentum” concerning  Carryover with The Commodities on the larger Daily Views with a normal Corrective Retracement… The Hourly sees Yen Strength defining a New “Transitive Rollover” at the 75.00 Handle.

The Lower Dynamic Uptrend Line of the Daily L.R. Channel may come into more Relevance, as Price may either Violate it down to the Downside in favor of the Weekly 38.2 Fib Variant of the July ‘08 Highs A  the .7386 Area. Support at the Area may see Appreciation through to the 76.00 Handle Resistance through a potential “Rounded Double-Bottom” from the 74.30’s Dynamic Support.

As always, please check in, as I will have more Updates as we move along throughout our Day!

See You Soon!

Greetings again, Everyone!

As The Euro and other Majors work with slight Dollar Strength to begin the Week, most Yen Crosses are finding the same Behavior with The strengthening Yen.

Despite rather “Negative” Data Points out of Japan last night, we can recognize that the Strength in both of our “Risk Appetite/Risk Averse Brothers” is due NOT to their inherent healthy Strength… but perhaps more to the Unhealthy Uncertainty of their Base Units.

Of course, Euro Yen would fits this Descriptor, with all that ‘weighs” on the Euro today, but it is more of a Curiosity with say, the “Stronger” Base Currencies such as the Aussie in AUD/JOY and even The Queen in GBP/JPY.

Let’s pull up the Hourlies and see where we are, as The U.S. Equity Futures are bidding lower which may hold Its Correlation to The Crosses as we open in about 10 Minutes time.

Give The Captures a Click, and I have Commentary above for you… Post-Time is 13:20 GMT.

The Aussie Yen finds a clear Corrective Bounce from the 76.00 Daily Static Support Area, which certainly may be Breached in favor of the Dynamic Supporting Area with the Magenta 75.30’s Level. A resurgence through the 76.80’s will find, perhaps, some Bullish Builds coming in from the initial 76.00 Support, and continuing through to 78.20’s Dynamic Resistance in the Near-Term.

Pound Yen sees solid Bearish Hourly Momentum, as the Daily Head and Shoulders Formation is coming to Fruition as Price heads to the 154.80’s “Neckline” of the Formation for Static Support.

Please join me again for more Updates as we move through this somewhat “quiet” Day… where we are already seeing some “Muted” activity in expectation of this Weeks Fed Meeting.

See You Soon!

Greetings, Everyone and Welcome to Friday!

We have had an Event-Filled and Volatile Week of Work this Week… especially if you Working Style is on the IntraDay Levels!

While in the very-near Immediate-Term, we should see, and are seeing,  some Dollar and Yen Strength as Prices move to break various minor Levels of Consolidation and Mixed Sentiment… we can step out a little bit and see Corrective Retracements now setting up for potential Bullish Builds to come back into The Markets over the next few Sessions.

The Yen Itself looks to a little more Weakness of Late than Its “Partner” in Risk-Aversion and Appetite…The Dollar.

We still look to these Two Currencies on their own Individual Merit as a “Bellwether” for out Strength Vs. Weakness Ideas, and the varying “Degrees” that we may see…

We check in with one Yen Cross as a Measurement of this Idea, so here we have the AUD/JPY on the Daily, Weekly, and Hourly Views.

This Cross is rather Illustrative of current Yen Weakness with the heavy U.S. Treasury Bonds selling off yesterday, and the subsequent weakening of The Dollar off of Support Areas, with The Yen weakening as “Collateral Damage” in this case.

Give The Captures a Click for Levels preceded by Commentary, as always… and Post-Time is 8:15 GMT.

The Aussie Yen still finds Buoyancy with Its Long-Term Uptrend Channel from January on the Daily View, as Price is “Anchored” quite nicely through the entire Macro-Upleg.

( I must say this Unit has been a Position Trader’s Dream… as has The Aussie Dollar… for those of you out there who subscribe to these Longer-Term Views… 

On the Larger Weekly level… we can say  this entire Upleg is simply a “Wide” Flag coming out of a Bear Flag Formation, as the “Textbook Case” is evident with a Hold at Major 50% Fib Variant/Static Resistance that we currently see.

The Hourly View sees the IntraDay Range rather clearly… as Price looks to Clip the 78.20’s Dynamic Resistance Level to see the 79.50’s Static Resistance, and 50% Weekly Downleg Fib Variant Areas.

Please have a look at The “Currency Majors Technical Perspective” Report  recently published for some Immediate-Term Views on where all of the still-continuing Macro-Consolidation and Ranges may be taking us leading into The Weekend!

Of course… I will have several more Updates for You as we move along in the Trading Day, so please come back for a Visit!

Greetings once again, Everyone!

Our “Rhetorical” Question from our last Post is surely answered with the “Mini-Breaks” of the Flag/Triangles that we are currently seeing on the EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY, and AUD/JPY.

The “Rotation Effect” on the macro-View is surely In Play here… as slightly positive U.S. Equities finds Continuation into Asia, with additional Major Fuel given by Japan and their strong Industrial Production.

We will surely keep our Eye on the Inflows coming into Japan, as this is surely a “Positive” Boost the the Japanese Economy in the Near-Term… as we mentioned a few hours ago as well.

( I say “Positive”… as the Sentiment is fine overall… but we have the Inverse Correlation… Positive Japanese Indices will equal a weak Yen in this case… )

The European Equities pick up our “Throw the Ball Around the World” Idea, as the FTSE, DAX, and CAC all open in positive territory.

With our current Macro-Correlations “In Proper Order” with Equities and the Yen Crosses… Bullish Sentiment should continue.

We check back in with the Hourlies of all Three Units… but this time with No Commentary and literally “Naked” Captures.

Observe how almost-Identical Price Action is evident here… as the “Uniformity” of Sentiment provides a “Smoothness” that even our “Heavy Friend”, The Euro… is contending with nicely after all that Pressure this week.

Give the Captures a Click, and Post-Time is 7:45 GMT.

Of course… be very Mindful of Corrections here as these Trends look to continue…especially considering the Appreciation we have seen all week long.

It’s the Weekend… and You know what that means!      

The Big Boys are fueling up The Yachts for a little Cruise, so Profit-Taking will surely be Evident as we move forward, and at least leave us in some Continuation of tight little Ranges for the Weekend.

We shall see!

As always, I will return for more Updates as we prepare for the EuroZone CPI, and the U.K. Housing Data Points in a little while, and please have a look for some Immediate-Term Thoughts on The Majors with the just-published “Currency Majors Technical Perspectives”  Report!

I hope to see Everyone Soon!

Greetings, Everyone and Welcome to Friday!

Our final Trading Day of the week certainly sees no “Rest for the Weary” as they say… as U.S. GDP, The EuroZone CPI, and plenty of other Data keep Traders busy all the way through until Happy Hour!

With all of the Commotion surrounding U.S. Bond Yields and the infamous “Inflation vs. Deflation” Debate going on here in The States… the Japanese have certainly taken advantage of this situation by the Outflows out of the U.S. and Higher U.S. Bond Yields in the last few days.

This has caused the Yen to “weaken” which may appear as part of our “Counter-Intuition” Menu of Tricks.

BUT…The Key here is what is happening with their OWN Bonds and Yields, as they deal with their falling 10Y Notes by buying up… and “Borrowing” from the Surplus of U.S. Treasuries.

Now..after a Fall for a couple of Days… they may begin to rise on  Rhetoric of a “Dovish” Recovery taking some time in Japan.

The Yen Itself handles this by some Initial Weakness through Thursday… but now simply looks to Stabilize and establish IntraDay Ranges full of Consolidation.

Of course… the Current State of The Yen in the Immediate-Term is resting on some Inherent Strength as Industrial Output in Japan gained significantly… which may play right into our Conversation about Capital Inflows coming through the Sea of Japan Inland for a nice “Breath of Fresh Air” for the Japanese Economy as a whole.

 We check with, in my personal opinion, what are the Three Main Yen Crosses…  EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY, and AUD/JPY on the Hourly Views to see this “Muted” Action as of Writing-Time.

Give the Captures a Click for Levels and Commentary, and Post-Time is 1:30 GMT.

Be sure to join me in about 5 Hours for our final 6:30/7:00 GMT “Currency Majors Technical Perspective” Report for this Week… and another Blog Update, of course!

See You Then!

Greetings once again, Everyone!

A few Hours after our Last Post, our Aussie Yen Friend is still holding tightly to the Clear 75.00 Handle of Daily Static Resistance on the IntraDay Hourly View.

Most Asian Bourses picked up where the Bullish Sentiment of the Dow and NASDAQ left off in Overnight Sessions, as The Dollar and Yen continue with subtle Ranging Accumulation in most Units.

The Kiwi is also holding Gains under an IntraDay Retracement, as another potential “Re-Test” of .6165 new “Transitive Rollover” Support may be seen. If this does not come to Fruition, then a “Test” to the Upside of the Hourly Range sees the 127% Fib Variant at .6260’s Dynamic Resistance in View.

Let’s also check in with the new June 2009 Crude Futures Contract, where Oil is consolidating in a Range of just under $5.00 moving forward… as the Continuous Contract on the NYMEX hit new Highs yesterday… The Futures Contract clocks in slightly lower as of Post-Time.

Here are the Hourly Captures of the Two, and the Daily of Crude of minus “New” Commentary this time… since previous Comments were still Valid from our last Post… as we head into the European Session in a few Minutes.

Post-Time is right at 8:00 GMT.

As always, here is the “Currency Majors Technical Perspective” Report, for more of an Immediate-Look at the Four Majors moving into the Session as well!

We will check in for more Updates throughout The Session and The Day… So please join me as usual!

Greetings Again, Everyone and Welcome to Wednesday!

( Well…”Technically” still Tuesday!… )

We are now a couple of Hours after the NYSE Close and prepare to move into The Asian Session… where in my personal View… all kinds of “Subtle Conflicts” are seen moving forward.

On One Side of the Fence… we see Crude Oil settling at 2009 Highs just above $62, The S&P never reaching strong Static Resistance at 880 as It closes at 910.30, The Richmond Fed Index eclipsing some of Its earlier Declines, and the Dow making nice consistent Gains in Today’s Session closing at 196.17.

On the other Hand, Gold does not make the IntraDay strides One would consider, as The Dollar and The Yen find their most difficult Enemies of the Day being The Queen, Euro and Aussie, in “Relative Terms”.

On top of all of this with overall “V” Reversals and “Market Noise” within Consolidations… giving almost a “Sporadic Tone” for Today.

It seems our Constant InterPlay of Risk Aversion/Risk Appetite is not quite over just yet!…    

IntraDay Views found plenty of High-Probability Opportunity with both Bullish and Bearish Views, as we simply “Rotated” between Giving and Taking Back Price Action on General Terms within The Units.

My “Icing on the Cake” Thought is the Rhetoric within The Mutual Fund Community that Strong and Healthy opportunity is Revealing Itself as this Sector… that we have never really discussed here on the Blog… meets in Chicago at the Morningstar Investor Conference this week.

Remember… these are the Pension and Retirement Funds of the World’s Humanity… and now The “Fire Sales” supposedly begin.

While my Metaphor here is deeply simplistic… you may understand my Implication that we just may not be ready for all of this just yet.

Uncertainly is still surely with Us… and of course I would like to see Stabilization just as much as all of You, but I think Caution is certainly advised moving forward.

Today’s Consumer Confidence Numbers might be the “Media Catalyst” for the Rationale behind Today’s Climate… but in my personal View… this is a bit too simplistic.

“But CVJ!… We have to have Something to Hang Our Hat On!”… the CVJ Fan Club Guys chime in.

I am in overall Agreement with them here… but The Case/Shiller Housing Numbers surely contradicts any “Consumer Confidence” I have seen.

( I suppose I can “talk” here… since my city of Phoenix holds the coveted #1 Designation for this Depreciating Drop… )

As an Artist, what I “See” is crucial to the Work, so in this case I certainly am not seeing Something That is not There.

I am simply “considering” the various Chasms of Disconnect we have in general, which of course is normal as we make our way through all of this Day In and Day Out.

The Aussie Yen Cross and the Kiwi Dollar are picking up on the Bullish Momentum as of this Writing, so let’s check in with these Two Units!

Here are the Hourly Views of these Two, at a slightly earlier Post-Time for the “Big Blog” at 22:00 GMT… as this will allow plenty of time for the Asian Sectors to kick in in accordance with The Pacific Dollars.

Please join me again a bit later for an Update, if it is merited with these Two Units on the Data… otherwise please join me around 6:30-7:00 GMT for the “Currency Majors Technical Perspective”, and another Blog Update to follow, as always!

( We will pick up with these Two either Prior to…or After… The Tech Report…so Do Not Worry!…      ;-)

Greetings, Everyone and welcome to Tuesday!

Price Appreciation across The Markets  yesterday simply calls for One Thought moving forward…

Corrective Retracements.

Of course this is not always the case,  but in the Current Environment of “Risk Appetite/Risk Aversion” Rotation… we certainly have Precedence for such Behavior.

The Bank of Japan is also interested in increasing their Builds of Bonds, while the Reserve Bank of Australia looks to a rather “Hawkish” Outlook for economic recovery moving towards the end of the year.

This Rhetoric has both the Australian Dollar reaching for a bit more Strength, and The Yen possibly seeing a bit more Weakness… prior to any “Technical” Retracement Activity.

This can be Illustrated by Price looking to “Re-Test” Key Resistance Areas… PRIOR to Full Retracement Sentiment.

Of course this is my personal interpretation  of the Data Translation to Price… so it may be a bit esoteric.

Here are the Captures of the Hourlies for EUR/JPY and AUD/JPY, so give them a Click for Commentary.

Post-Time is 1:45 GMT.

Please keep in mind my Thoughts on the Corrections here are relatively Short-Term… as Macro-Sentiment looks for Continued Price Appreciation moving forward.

The Euro Yen looks to the Static Resistance Areas of 131.00/131.75 in the Near-Term.

Aussie Yen looks toward the 75.00 Handle in the near-Term if Corrections complete and follow-through with Upside Sentiment.

Please join me in a few Hours for the “Currency Majors Technical Perspective” Report around 7:00 GMT, as we see how the Majors are working in this Climate with a little more Detail in the Immediate-Term!