Greetings Everyone, and Welcome to Wednesday!

We prepare for the Bank of England Minutes to be released, as we look for any additional signs of increased Stimulus since they failed to do their “Allocated Increase” of 25B Sterling in additional Asset Purchases.

The Markets will be especially watchful for any Rhetoric or Indications of a “Timeline” of if and when this will occur…as well as the “possibility” of additional Policy since the BoE does have their “Eye on the Inflationary Ball” with its very sensitive Economy of late.

In addition, we will certainly watch the EIA Crude Inventory Builds Data Release as well… since Crude has been an interesting “Leading Indicator” of sorts… at lease concerning Sentiment in the last few weeks.

Let’s have a look at The Queen again… as well as GBP/JPY… where we already notice a literal “Grinding Halt” to Price Action on both Units ahead of The Minutes.

Here is The Hourly… where our Levels are basically unchanged from our earlier Update… as Price looks to hold the 1.6380’s Transitive Rollover Support Area in the Immediate-Term.

Give The Capture a Click, and Post-Time is 2:45 GMT.

Pound Yen is seeing very similar Price action as well… as Price looks to hold the 153.20’s/00 Handle in the Immediate-Term. We are already seeing continuation of the Yen Strength, as the Unit is off about 66 Pips or so for the Day already in “relative” terms.

A Breach of the Area will see the 152.30’s with ease for another “Re-Test” to form an Hourly Double-Bottom in the Near-Term if the Area holds.

We will surely check in with these Developments as we progress, so please stop back by frequently for more Updates… as I always look forward to all of your Visits!

 Greetings again, Everyone!

Crude Inventories come off a bit  down more than expected @ 3.8M, while Gasoline Builds rose by 3.9 M Barrels and Distillates also gained 2.1M Barrels. Refinery Utilization rises 1.2% to 87.1, as our Crude August Futures Contract remains with minimal Reaction and locked in Its IntraDay Range.

The BoE is concerned overall with a “longer-than-considered” Expansion Policy as well as a Concern for “Inflationary Pressures”.

Interest Rate Considerations out of The Bank of England will only be accommodated on rising CPI, as well as a Conflict with Oil Appreciation being a Factor in CPI in the first place.

 We check in with a slightly weaker Crude Contract, as well as The Queen looking for Daylight towards the 1.6600 Handle once again.

Commentary is above, so give The Captures a Click for Levels… Post-Time is 15:30 GMT.

Crude looks to maintain the tight Range Price is “anchored” in now between the $66.50’s and the $69.50’s on the IntraDay View. A Clip of the Resistance here sees a New “Transitive Rollover” being built as Resistance@ $69.50 noe becomes Support.

Maintenance of the Area sees additional Appreciation to $70-73 Resistance in the near-Term if Sentiment continues along with the Correlation to Dollar Weakness.

The Queen is still caught in a very Clear Daily range, as we are at The “Mean” of the Area, and need some “Outliers” in Price to work with on this Time-Cycle.

The Hourly provides more Specific Clarity, in that we see the 1.6480’s now providing a “Bounce” from Dynamic Support. Clearance will see a Continuation through the 1.6600 Handle… especially if The FOMC Rhetoric is largely “In -Line” with Expectation of Rhetoric and some Dovish Sentiment.

As we move along… NOW  we expect the “Quiet Muted” Consolidative Activity to really be clearly seen moving into FMOC Territory in less than 3 Hours.

While I personally do not expect  any “true” Importance out of the Interest Rate Equation… The Key will be all Rhetoric and Plans for either Maintaining, Expanding, or Contracting the Quantitative Easing Aspects.

We will see minimal Reaction if we hear the “Same” Rhetoric of Interest Rates remaining at current levels, but especially if we hear Q.E. Concerns remaining Stable and Unchanged.

Please join me yet once again for another Update as we see Reaction, check on The Currency Units, as well as The Indices as The Release is “digested”!

I will see all of You hopefully Soon!

Greetings again, Everyone!

With the U.K. Economy and the MPC maintaining concern for their massive Deficit… Cable corrects in the Near-Term despite having Jobless Claims emerge “Better-Than-Expected”.

As always… our “Old Friend” Counter-Intuition comes into View… as we look towards the “Lesser of all Evils” type of Sentiment moving forward.

Were the 73.7K Jobless Claims Negative?…. Of Course… but certainly “better” than the 118K Consensus.

In a similar fashion that we find Risk Aversion Climates of late… Cable is making a slight “Recovery” as of this writing considering the deeply important Figure of 1.500 acting as a “Magnet Anchor” for Price.

Resistance at this Level is certainly solid… given the High Probability of Options Barriers at this Area, in my personal view.

Here is a Daily View and then we drill to the Hourly for all of our IntraDay Friends, so give the Captures a Click for Commentary and Post-Time is 11:30 GMT.

We shall return with further Updates after the NYSE Open… as the Equity Financials really are providing a “Catalyst” for  us to observe, as well as Crude Inventories on the way as well!

Greetings again, Everyone!

We are already seeing Price Behavior that is “in concert” with our thought from our overnight Post concerning pending “Breaks” into and out of Congestion and Consolidation Zones.

On the Macro-View, the Bank of England really brings us nothing new in Action and Rhetoric, as it Holds it’s current Overnight Interest Rate @ 0.5%, respectively.

U.S. Data comes in “Under The Radar” with “Mixed” Sentiment as Continuing Jobless Claims and both Import Price Indexes are clipped slightly negative… while the Initial Jobless Claims and Trade Balance come in a bit better than expected concerning the Trade Deficit and Employment Factors.

These exact Data Points have proven ”Catalysts” we were speaking of earlier to begin to Break these little Consolidating Areas of Energy that we began building…. despite the fact that they have been, or are.. rather short-lived in the Immediate-Term.

Our Friends Gold and the EUR/USD fit the bill nicely as fine Illustrations if this Activity!

Here are the Hourly Views so give the Captures a Click, as always…and Post-Time is about 10 minutes ahead of the NYSE Open @ 13:20 GMT.

Of course, we will be back to check further Developments, and bring the Swissy back into View… as our IntraDay “Dynamic” Resistance has been violated there as well!

Greetings, and welcome to Monday Everyone!

We have plenty of Macro-Event Data coming in what many of us like to call a  ”Central Bank Week”.

“On the Block” this week is the Bank of Japan, the Reserve Bank of Australia,  and the Bank of England… as well as FOMC Minutes and Trade Balance, among a host of other Data Points.

Interestingly enough… we simply continue with “Bullish Sentiment” with most Majors and the Yen Crosses with a return of Risk Appetite… and the weak Dollar is keeping pressure on Gold as well.

I spoke a little about Multiple-Time Frames and some perspectives on why I personally prefer to work with Longer-Term Views overall in the first of my Weekend Posts ( the two previous Posts on the Blog…)

Our current Price Behavior on EUR/USD provides a fine Example here as the Unit… as with many Majors at this point… are ”Overextended” and “Overbought”.

This leads us to some curiosities for those who prefer IntraDay work in looking for potential “Entries of Execution”.

If one was to follow the Longer-Term View… Risk Appetite from purely a “Technical Sense” would not have been much of a surprise.

Here is the “Naked” Weekly Chart to illustrate my view, so give it a Click…. and Post-Time tonight is 2:15 GMT.

Here now is the Hourly View… where we see the manifestation continuing of that Longer-Term “Double/Rounded Bottom Formation” from up above on the Weekly.

The Pound Yen also gives us a “Similar” View with Risk Appetite and the struggling Yen… here is the Daily for some Perspective.

We will certainly check in with these two Units moving forward with our Update around 11:00 GMT during the European Session, so I will see you then!

In the Interim… I will return right around 7:00 GMT with the “Technical Perspective of the Majors” Report under the “Technical” Section right here on FXstreet.

Greetings All!

A quick Update, as our two Friends here come to fruition on Interest Rate expectation… as well as continuance with overnight Bearish Sentiment since our last Post.

Here are the Hourlies again, so give them a Click… and Post-Time this morning (for me) is 13:30 GMT.

Be mindful of some potential near-term Retracement Reversal as we move forward… especially if the U.S. Equity Markets open higher… we are always moving and winding, so be considerate of these subtleties.

Another Update on the way with “digestion” and Time considering the other Data Points for the day and Price finding a place of “Rest” and “Equilibrium”.

Happy Central Bank Day, Everyone!

We embark on the noted Key Interest Rate Decisions by the European Central Bank and the Bank of England today… with Consensus clocking in at a .50 basis-point Cut for both Central Banks from 2.00% to 1.50% for the ECB…, and 1.00% to .50% for the BoE.

Now if I close my eyes… I would swear we are speaking of the Federal Reserve a couple months back… away we go!

So… with all the Risk Aversion…Fear…Uncertainty… and Collateral Damage we have seen lately with both of these Economies… where will these Cuts leave us in terms of their respective Currency Units?

Well… of course I do not know! … but I have a “highly probable” idea…

( Remember one of my very first Posts on the Blog?  I said I am like Sgt. Schultz from the 1960’s American WWII comedy, Hogan’s Heroes…. his famous line was ” I know nothing… Nothing! “… )      

In my personal view…  These Consensus Rate Cuts are already Priced-In to the Markets…hence any previous Bullish Momentum we have seen (yesterday) did not hold any Intrinsic Value to the Euro and The Queen themselves.

I attribute the Price Appreciation in the Euro Dollar and Pound Dollar to the “Dollar” side of these Units and simple Dollar weakness…. as the Inverse relationship of the Dollar to stronger U.S. Equities has been in Play.

So what do the Charts have to say right now?… Let’s have a peek.

Here are the Hourlies of both Units, so give the Captures a Click for Commentary.

Post-Time tonight for me is about 3:15 GMT.

Please be mindful of my “Time-Cycle” of Thought here… I am speaking purely in the immediate Near-Term with Price Action if the Rate Decisions are in line with Consensus.

( Many of you know I personally hold Longer-Term Views… so it would be in my favor to see these two Units appreciate with significance after their Bearish Sentiment directionality has worked through… for a Selling-into-Strength opportunity. )

I will be back with you after the Announcements and accompanying Statements, as well as other Data Points… so we may simply see where all of the “Digestion” has taken us!

Remain Cautious… and no one ever said you have to take a Position here or at any time!

Use your Skills and adhere to your Risk Profile and Trading Style.

Hi Everyone!

The “surprising” move for a historical Rate Cut out of the U.K., despite a significant decrease in Jobless Claims being the lowest since the week of October 11th, has continued to propel the Majors into appreciation.

The BoE Rate Cut was surprising in my personal view… as a full Basis Point would not have shattered my world at all.

OK… call me a “Perma-Bear” if you want on the U.K. economy…but the Fish ‘N’ Chips are just not the same these days are they!… hee hee  

“CVJ…You should not talk…things in your neck of the world in the U.S. aren’t exactly in top form now, are they!”… I can hear the CVJ Fan Club guys say…  

But… the Queen is at least back on dry land…so let’s have a look!

(Post-time is 14:00 GMT)

(click once for the capture)

We can check in and see if we simply move into consolidative activity or continue with overall intraday Bullish sentiment!

Happy New Year’s Eve to All !

I thought we would revisit our big Battle of the English Channel going on with the EuroZone and the U.K.

It is certainly timely since we have had such devisive appreciation of the Euro in this case…Her Majesty may need us to rescue Her again from the Deep Blue!  

When we last looked at the Pair, here is what we had.

I kept the original Chart from that Post a couple weeks back….and what a difference those several trading day made!

Our Daily Bull Flag certainly came to fruition in a massive way and even reached a new paradigm in Price!

(click once for captures)

We never did have a correction there, did we!

 Down on the Hourly, I have written my current  Price action views on the Capture, so be sure to give it a “click”!

It really is my personal view  that the Bank of England will cut rates again next week…

It really is my personal view  that the European Central Bank will pause and hold rates at their next meeting…

 So where does that leave us if my views come to fruition?

“Parity my dear friends and colleagues…Parity, I say!”  

 Parity!

DISCLAIMER:

If I am right…I give my U.K. friends…led by my dear FXstreet Premium friend, Ray….full permission to drown me in the Thames!

If I am right…I give my EuroZone friends and everyone at FXstreet…full permission to throw me a big party in Barcelona!

Either way…I’m pretty neutral about it, wouldn’t you say??? …hee hee hee…