Posted on April 21, 2009 at 6:24 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »

 

Greetings again, Everyone!

As promised… let’s check the Majors with two of the “Four Siblings” as the Dollar and Yen still hold their Strength… and simply attempt to pull out of Consolidative Basing over the last several Hours.

Our Keys here will solely rest on which “Side of the Fence” one favors in Sentiment.

Bullish Views will surely want Violation of Dynamic Resistance Areas and Fib Variants to continue to move forward… while Bearish Views hold Patience and observe HOW  these Levels are contacted for “Sell-Into-Strength” Opportunities out of the Bear-Market IntraDay Rallies.

Here are the Hourly Viewsof both Units, so give the Captures a Click for Commentary.

Post-Time is 11:30 GMT.

 

 

 

 

 

 

I will return around the Equities Open/Initial Hour at the NYSE, so we may take a look at the Swissy and Dollar Yen… as well as checking in on the Yen Crosses for parallel Behavior with their Majors.

:-)

 

 

 


Posted on April 21, 2009 at 0:02 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »

 

Greetings and welcome to Tuesday, Everyone!

As is the same with our Pacific Dollar Majors of these two Units… the Aussie and Kiwi “Themselves” have begun to strengthen out of a deeply Risk-Averse environment yesterday.

We had a look at the Majors of these two earlier, so let’s take a look at the Crosses… where one may argue that the Yen Strength overall has even been more pronounced than the Dollar.

As I have mentioned before here in various Posts… With such a Uncertain and Turbulent Macro-Environment, it is quite common to have Market “Sentiment” rest on one Singular Event…. a Speech…a Statement… a Data Point… and so on.

All of these smaller Factors put together as a Whole have defined our “Jekyll and Hyde” Behavior the past couple of weeks where we see Rallies and Positive Sentiment… only to be directly given back in the Immediate-Term.

As we have discussed several times… we may simply see “Bear-Market Rallies” and “Shallow Corrections” here and with most Majors and Crosses in the Immediate-Term.

Despite the larger Consolidative Movements the past several Sessions… we still find Price Attraction to Key Areas and strong Support and Resistance.

Like Us… Price also wants to find “Safety” as it moves along and deals with these Uncertainties…

As we always say… We may not know where we are Going… but Price always has a way of finding where it has Been!

Here are the Daily Views, so give the Captures a Click… and Post-Time is 5:00 GMT.

 

 

 

 

 

 

( A Program Note:  I will NOT be with you at 7:00 GMT for the early “Currency Majors Technical Perspective” Report. The Templates I use are loaded from a seperate Server which unfortunately has a few Corruptions, and I will hopefully have it back Online for tomorrow. As a compromise in the interim… I will visit the “Four Sibling” Majors throughout the Blog Updates today for you… and I apologize for the inconvenience. )

;-)

 

 

 


Posted on February 26, 2009 at 7:17 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »

 

Greeting again, Everyone!

Our “muted” Price Action Climate today continues to spread and “bleed out” to most Currency Units today, and this tells us…in general…we are “Re-Setting the Chessboard”, for lack of a better Analogy.

As is usually the case with large Macro -Paradigm shifts… a “wave” of Consolidation and Continuation comes over the Markets as we look for Catalysts in finding decisive directionality.

Our old friends, the Yen Crosses… in similar fashion to the Loonie and Crude Oil from our overnight Post… are no different here on the larger Views.

The Dailies of Pound Yen and Euro Yen illustrate this nicely.

 While both still are in Macro-Downtrends… we are seeing some “Ranging and Basing” Areas.

( On the higher Time-Cycles, we are seeing subtle “appreciation” of Price…in which a Selling into Strength View would be appropriate in terms of these larger Downtrends. )

Give the Captures a Click, and Post-Time is 12:15 GMT.

 

 

 

 

Now… with the EUR/USD fighting the 1.2750/1.2800 Resistance Areas…, poor Data Points out of the EuroZone,  and Mervyn King speaking in London… we may see a Catalyst soon with all of the U.S. Data Points to emerge.

Lately…with the Equities Markets of the last few days “loosely leading” Price Action… we shall see if any of the directional strength will be sustainable.

So… I will be back for another Update with you after the NY Open and Data Points come into play to see where we fair… and Caution is advisable here as we have all of this “building of Energy” everywhere…

:-)

 

 

 


Posted on January 4, 2009 at 21:41 in Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »

 

Welcome to out first trading week of 2009!

Last Friday, our Euro friend was appreciating nicely with its’ “cousin”, Gold.

We noticed a strong relationship here, and concluded our Price similarities were tight…but not as deeply

correlated  as other Currency/Commodity groupings.

Even though the Euro itself is strongly backed by Gold…how about a look at the tightest Gold correlation we have…the Aussie!

So…let’s take a look at the Euro and the Aussie for a couple of days…we may see some of those general macro-similarities that we use for overall Market exposure protection.

 

First up to the plate is the Euro…so let’s see where we may progressing.

 

We are still largely “Rangebound” on a Daily Macro view ( mind you…a rather large Range…), although a visit to our Hourly again shows nice follow-through with the Sydney Open to begin our week.

 

(click once for captures)

 

Our points of directionality are rather clear on the Daily Time Cycle…so let’s drill down to the Hourly and see if we have additional clarity.

 

 

 

As illustrated, we certainly may see a re-test of the 1.40 area…although we do appear to be carrying some “weight” here with high probabilities to the downside.