Posted on June 24, 2009 at 10:33 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »

 

 Greetings again, Everyone!

Crude Inventories come off a bit  down more than expected @ 3.8M, while Gasoline Builds rose by 3.9 M Barrels and Distillates also gained 2.1M Barrels. Refinery Utilization rises 1.2% to 87.1, as our Crude August Futures Contract remains with minimal Reaction and locked in Its IntraDay Range.

The BoE is concerned overall with a “longer-than-considered” Expansion Policy as well as a Concern for “Inflationary Pressures”.

Interest Rate Considerations out of The Bank of England will only be accommodated on rising CPI, as well as a Conflict with Oil Appreciation being a Factor in CPI in the first place.

 We check in with a slightly weaker Crude Contract, as well as The Queen looking for Daylight towards the 1.6600 Handle once again.

Commentary is above, so give The Captures a Click for Levels… Post-Time is 15:30 GMT.

 

 

Crude looks to maintain the tight Range Price is “anchored” in now between the $66.50’s and the $69.50’s on the IntraDay View. A Clip of the Resistance here sees a New “Transitive Rollover” being built as Resistance@ $69.50 noe becomes Support.

Maintenance of the Area sees additional Appreciation to $70-73 Resistance in the near-Term if Sentiment continues along with the Correlation to Dollar Weakness.

 

 

 

 

 

The Queen is still caught in a very Clear Daily range, as we are at The “Mean” of the Area, and need some “Outliers” in Price to work with on this Time-Cycle.

 

 

 

 

 

The Hourly provides more Specific Clarity, in that we see the 1.6480’s now providing a “Bounce” from Dynamic Support. Clearance will see a Continuation through the 1.6600 Handle… especially if The FOMC Rhetoric is largely “In -Line” with Expectation of Rhetoric and some Dovish Sentiment.

 

 

 

 

 

As we move along… NOW  we expect the “Quiet Muted” Consolidative Activity to really be clearly seen moving into FMOC Territory in less than 3 Hours.

While I personally do not expect  any “true” Importance out of the Interest Rate Equation… The Key will be all Rhetoric and Plans for either Maintaining, Expanding, or Contracting the Quantitative Easing Aspects.

We will see minimal Reaction if we hear the “Same” Rhetoric of Interest Rates remaining at current levels, but especially if we hear Q.E. Concerns remaining Stable and Unchanged.

 

 

Please join me yet once again for another Update as we see Reaction, check on The Currency Units, as well as The Indices as The Release is “digested”!

I will see all of You hopefully Soon!

;-)

 

 

 


Posted on June 15, 2009 at 11:21 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »

 

Greetings again, Everyone!

We do not have too much change in Market Sentiment and Activity today as the Dollar Index looks toward the 82.50’s Level… and The Queen and The Fiber look towards New IntraDay Dynamic Support Levels as well…

Let’s get right to it, so here are The Hourlies of both Units, so give The Captures a Click as we have Commentary above…

Post-Time is 16:20 GMT.

 

The Queen looks towards the 1.6240’s Support Level and may simply Breach the Area for a View of the 1.6210’s/1.6200 Handle.

Further Continuation can see the 1.600’s Area in the Mid-Term as Corrective Sentiment continues.

Upside Resistance sees the 1.6670’s towards 1.6800 if we see some Bullish Builds come in at the Support Areas.

 

 

 

 

 

The Fiber still deals with Its underlying “Weight”, as Price now sees a slight Bounce from the 1.3770’s Support/Confluence Area with the 61.8% Daily March Upleg Fib Variant.

Downside-Risk sees the 1.3650’s 38.2% Fib variant as Dynamic “Transitive Rollover” Support in the Near-Term.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Of course… more Updates to follow, so I hope to see all of You soon!

;-)

 

 

 


Posted on June 9, 2009 at 9:38 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »

 

Greetings again, Everyone!

We arrive at The Opening Bell of the NYSE, as The Dow and S&P 500 are in “Flat to Slightly Positive” Territory.

Short-Term Bond Yields continue to Rise and subsequently are increasingly Negative for Equities and The Dollar, as Rhetoric for increasing Interest Rates is floating around out there as well.

For our Needs in The Currency Markets… one thing is deeply Clear.

The Dollar is Out of Favor.

Period.

The Macros concerning The Majors… Inflationary concerns in Europe… the Political Turmoil in The U.K…. The Bleak Economy in Japan… are all really irrelevant at this Point from an Immediate-Term View.

Market Sentiment is simply Dollar Negative… so We simply Work with What We See.

Let’s check in on The Fiber  and Cable… ( the Recovery in Crude Oil and Gold has provided Inter-Market Buoyancy to Dollar Weakness as well… )

Give The Captures a Click for Levels of Reference, and Post-Time is 14:40 GMT.

 

The Fiber looks ahead to Static Resistance at the 1.4000 for another Hourly “Re-Test” there… and in my personal View…  Counter-Trend Positions will find some Difficulty here as One works against the Daily Uptrend.

Alternatively from the IntraDay View… if the Range of 1.38 to 1.40 Holds… any Counter-Trend Views may be Viable for working within the Area, as Range Traders and Faders enjoy these types of Environments that are Complimentary to their Work.

 

 

 

 

 

The Queen regains Bullish Momentum, as She continues to slam Her Arch-Enemy, The Euro!

On Her own… She pulls ahead through the “Transitive Rollover” at the 1.6200 Area, as Price accelerates out of our Ellipsed Area from yesterday… and looks to Clip the Upper Channel Trendline as well as meet the Weekly June Downleg 1.6340’s 61.8% Fib Variant Area.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Of Course and As Always… Be Mindful of Market Reversals… as Trend Correction is Attractive to Bullish Builds coming in with more Fuel for The Trends… as well as providing Opportunities for Counter-Trend Activities when Consolidation and Continuation is Seen.

 

As always… I will be back with you as we move along on a Day filled with Movement and Volatility for a Fine Climate for Us to Work Within!

:-)

 

 

 

 


Posted on May 20, 2009 at 2:24 in Commentary, Live Webinars by Tim SalemNo Comments »

 

Greetings Again, Everyone!

We bring back our two Commodity Currencies from our previous Update at 1:00 GMT… only to find them under Accumulative Consolidation as we await Data Points, as well as Price simply looking ahead to Deep or Shallow Retracements… or perhaps none at all!

Consolidation can work this way for us concerning Price…

When we have such Strong and Solid Momentum, Price does not usually require “Classic Technical” Pullbacks or Corrections… as we are not really dealing with “Impulsive and Reactionary” Directionality.

In many instances… a bit of “Rest” through Accumulation is all that is needed for Price to continued on It Way.

While The Canadian Dollar waits for CPI and the Australian Dollar holds Its Gold Correlation… The Queen has to concern Itself with upcoming Bank of England Minutes at 8:30 GMT, as Quantitative Easing is still on the Agenda of Concern for the U.K.

Here are the Hourly Views of all three Units to see where we are moving forward… and where we may go as we move throughout The European Session.

Give the Captures a Click, and Post-Time is 7:30 GMT.

 

 

 

 

 

 

For more Insight and Immediate-Term Detail on the Four Majors, feel free to take a look at the “Currency Majors Technical Perspective” Report  just published, and I will see you soon for another Blog Update, as always !

;-)

 

 

 

 


Posted on May 12, 2009 at 2:45 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »

Greetings Again, Everyone!

With the U.K. Data Points in focus soon… we turn to the EUR/GBP Unit, as we see if “General Consensus”of slightly Weaker-to-Moderate Trade Balance and Production Data propels the Euro further to the .9080’s Area of Daily Dynamic Resistance in the Near-Term.

Caught in a 250-Pip Range that is “Anchored” by Static Support and Resistance Levels… Price may simply “Convert” back to Its old ways of Consolidation with slight Movement.

( Remember those Days?… When we all named this “The Watching Paint Dry” Pair?…)

While certainly those Days may be behind us… as there is significant Price Characteristics on both Sides of the Unit these Days.

Here are the Daily and Hourly Views where we may see more Upside Potential for the Euro… although The Queen is always Full of Surprises, isn’t She!

Give the Captures a Click for Commentary, and Post-Time is 7:45 GMT.

Please join me again in a few Hours for more Updates… as we see if any of the Majors are ready for significant Movements out of their Corrections!

( Here is a quick Link to the  “Currency Majors Technical Perspective” Report for some further IntraDay Details… )

;-)


Posted on May 5, 2009 at 9:20 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »

Hello again, Everyone!

Our “Bullet Train” continues to move forward in most Markets and Currency Units, as Appreciation and Risk Appetite continue to Rule The Day.

The NYSE Opens with Equity Futures bidding higher for several Pre-Open Hours, as those Institutional Block Orders get filled and Gold and Crude Oil pick up on the “Bleeding Out” Momentum as well!

Crude on the NYMEX with the Continuous Contract… as well as the June Futures Contract from my View here…hits 2009 Highs as we stay above the $900 Level with Confidence.

Gold also Breaks out of a beautiful Symmetrical Triangle, and completes a “Classic’ Bull Flag/Pennant Formation on the Daily View.

Let’s keep everything in Perspective, though… We are at, or are approaching, Key Potential Corrective Levels, so our Initial Thoughts on some “Reversals” may certainly come to Fruition.

Certainly something tobe Mindful of moving forward…     :-)

The Institute for Supply Management Data comes in with “slight” Expansion across all Criteria in the Business Index, Non-Manufacturing Orders, and the Employment, Price, and New Order Sub-Indexes as well.

Bernanke rides the current wave here and provides Rhetoric on some “Stabilization” in the overall Economic “Health”, as the Day continues and the Dow is largely “Flat” a half-hour into the Open.

Let’s have a look at Gold and The Queen to see the Corrective Nature of the Data Point… as these “Reprieves” simply look to continue Price Appreciation.

Here are the Hourly Views of both, so give them a Click for Commentary, and Post-Time is 14:20 GMT.

I will certainly be back with you for another Update… to see if our “Thoughts” on any significant Corrective Behavior truly comes to Fruition across the Markets as we move forward!

:-)


Posted on April 22, 2009 at 6:26 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »

 

Greetings again, Everyone!

With the U.K. Economy and the MPC maintaining concern for their massive Deficit… Cable corrects in the Near-Term despite having Jobless Claims emerge “Better-Than-Expected”.

As always… our “Old Friend” Counter-Intuition comes into View… as we look towards the “Lesser of all Evils” type of Sentiment moving forward.

Were the 73.7K Jobless Claims Negative?…. Of Course… but certainly “better” than the 118K Consensus.

In a similar fashion that we find Risk Aversion Climates of late… Cable is making a slight “Recovery” as of this writing considering the deeply important Figure of 1.500 acting as a “Magnet Anchor” for Price.

Resistance at this Level is certainly solid… given the High Probability of Options Barriers at this Area, in my personal view.

Here is a Daily View and then we drill to the Hourly for all of our IntraDay Friends, so give the Captures a Click for Commentary and Post-Time is 11:30 GMT.

 

 

 

We shall return with further Updates after the NYSE Open… as the Equity Financials really are providing a “Catalyst” for  us to observe, as well as Crude Inventories on the way as well!

:-)


Posted on April 15, 2009 at 8:27 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »

Greetings again, Everyone!

We are about 5 minutes ahead of the NYSE Open where we have Micro-Dollar Strength “Across the Board” on an IntraDay Basis.

U.S. Core CPI reveals itself to be stronger than expected and as usual in these “Fragile” Markets these days… “Sentiment” with Data Points is held at Gunpoint and used as Leverage… irregardless of a Positive or Negative Tone.

The Fiber and Cable are no different here as their Rallies in Appreciation are clipped.

We still maintain the overall Daily Trends… but IntraDay Price Action is using Key Dynamic Levels such as Fibs,  and Static Levels such as my “Transitive Rollover” Ideas,  to renegotiate Support and Resistance Levels.

More Data is on the way to provide additional “Catalysts”, so we may expect more Momentum Shifts in Price as our Day moves forward.

Here are the Hourly Views of both Units, so give them a Click for Commentary, and Post-Time is 13:25 GMT.

 

 

 

 

 

I will be back with you around 16:00-17:00 GMT for another Update, as we see if any of our Larger Correlations with Equities and the Dow come into View. 

We will also check in beyond that for an additional Update to see if we have any more Macro-Shifts moving into the “Doldrums” and then into the Asian-Pacific Sectors !

;-)

 

 

 


Posted on April 3, 2009 at 6:21 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »

Greetings again, Everyone for a quick Update ahead of NFP!

Her Majesty, GBP/USD, is riding the “Wave of Momentum” by being the G20 Host as rather positive PMI Data Points come in to rally Cable against Her U.S. Sibling!

UK PMI clocks in at a positive 45.6, as opposed to 43.2… and still well aobve Consensus @ 43.6.

What is unique here is the “Indicator” of some slight “Stability”… ( and I use the word with Caution…)… as most UK Data this week has been largely positive.

The U.K. itself may be getting to a point where we also are seeing my own city of Phoenix “in Principle” of the Housing Sector.

Being one of the first to get hammered with a Housing Bubble… we should “theoretically” be one of the first Area in the States to see some “Recovering Stability”, if you will.

The U.K. is similar… in that being one of the first Economies to “fall to the Recessionary Monster in the English Channel”… it therefore may be one of the first to begin Recovery…. an unusual Analogy here… but you see my Point.   :-)

Here is our Hourly of Cable again where we are seeing some Key Fib Variants come into Play, so give the Capture a Click… Post-Time is 11:20 GMT.

 

 

We may simply continue with Flag Completion moving along with Price Appreciation… or the “Counter-Intuitive” Dollar Strength that may result  from NFP Data may bring us Rejection, and back down to our Highlighted Fib “Cluster” Area… We shall certainly see!

 

 

Of course…I will be with you Post-NFP Data to see any reactionary concerns… and we will stay with The Queen, and also bring EUR/USD back into the Picture as well!

;-)

 

 

 


Posted on March 26, 2009 at 13:05 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »

 

Greetings again, Everyone for an Update with The Queen!

Slight Dollar strength over Hourly Time-Cycle has taken us to our Probable Levels we spoke of during our last Update.

We cut the Transitive Rollover S & R Area and now look to either form another T.R…. or simply engage more Dollar Momentum and head for the Topside Channel Confluence… although this Area may be Well-Bid by Limit-Buy Orders.

Here is the Hourly once more, so give it a Click… and Post-Time is 18:05 GMT.

 

 

 

Of course… I will be back this evening ( my time) for another large Blog Entry… as we move towards the final Trading Day of the week!

;-)

 

 

 

 

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