Posted on July 21, 2009 at 12:15 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »

 

Greetings once again, Everyone!

The IntraDay Market Corrections we have spoken of have surely come to Fruition, as The Dollar and The Yen strengthen on overall Market Sentiments.

The Dow and The S&P are largely “flat” coming into additional Bernanke Testimony, as we are, once again, dealing with Ranging and somewhat “Directionless’ Market activity moving forward.

We can see with The current EUR/USD Activity that even though we have plenty of IntraDay Volatility and Macro-Factors to use as Impetus for Movement… We really are still dealing with these “larger” Consolidations of Activity out on the larger Time-Cycles.

 Here is The Capture, so give it a Click for this Range we are speaking of, as price currently sits on the 1.4080’s Dynamic Support Areas. Continued Clearance here to the Downside may certainly see a “Re-Test” of the 1.3800 Handle of Mid-Term Support.

Give the Captures a Click, as always, and Post-Time is 17:15 GMT.

 

 

 

The Hourly View sees clear Delineation of the Price Appreciation, as we reverse with probable Profit-Taking and Equities Correlation weakness as we move forward.

A Clip of this Dynamic Support can certainly see the 1.4080’s “In Concert” with the overall Daily View.

 

 

 

 

 

As Bernanke continues on, we will monitor any additional Rhetoric moving forward and I will have an Update for you as we move towards the NYSE Close!

Please stop by for a visit then!

:-)

 

 

 


Posted on July 17, 2009 at 10:12 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »

Greetings again, Everyone!

We certainly have some Volatility to work with on an IntraDay Basis, with plenty of “Market Noise” and Breaks moving forward.

Perhaps Crude and Gold are the finest Illustrations of this Price Behavior so far, as Clean Breaks have seen Momentum, due perhaps, indirectly to falling Treasuries and a relatively “Flat” Dow and S&P 500 as of this Writing.

Here are the Hourly Views, so give them a Click, as always, for various Levels of Reference.

Post-Time is 15:10 GMT.

 

Gold looks to a new “Transitive Rollover” of Support and Resistance as Price is “caught” in a $5.00 Range after emerging from the Congestion Zone Upleg from the $912.00 Area. Price will need to see a Clear Momentum-Break of the $940’s to continue on with the overall Hourly Uptrend… otherwise a Retracement of Price to the $920’s is certainly feasible here.

 

Crude is quite similar in Behavior, with an even “cleaner” Break of the Congestion Area. A potential Hourly Bull Flag is in development here, with “Full Completion” coming in above the $65.00 Handle…. although this may be in the Distant Future as Price may simply begin to consolidate at the “new” Transitive Rollover Area of the $63.30’s.

 

 

 

We look to some “Quieting” of Price Action as the Day moved on into The Weekend, so be Mindful of Institutional Re-Positioning moving forward as “Covering” will surely be a Factor here.

As always, I will be back with you for more Updates, so please join me soon!

:-)

 

 

 


Posted on July 14, 2009 at 8:52 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »

 

Greetings once again, Everyone!

We move to The NYSE Open, where Positive Sentiment begins the Day with The Dow and S&P both in Positive Territory. Equities and Indices have been largely Well-Bid throughout the Global Exchanges overnight and into today’s Session Openings.

Gold and Crude Oil are also a Major Component here as The Dollar and Yen retreat into the Shadows concerning most Units “Across The Board”.

Despite lackluster Earnings overall during “Earnings Season”, Goldman Sachs keeps the optimism alive, as well as Alcoa from last week, to give the Equities and Indices some Impetus to see Corrective Behavior that has and will “Carry Over” into The Currency Markets.

The Producer Price Index and Retail Sales come in “Better-Than-Expected” overall, but the “Weight” of Core Retail Sales will always be the “Factor” here, and without Autos and Energy, we really have nothing to “Hang our Hat On” here… hence the “Noisy Whipsaw” Price Action we have seen within the last Hour across The Markets.

 

(Please feel free to look at my latest Installments for the “Fundamental Forex Foundations” Section of the FXstreet Education Area… PPI, Retail Sales, Business Inventories, and CPI set for Release tomorrow.)

 

We check in with USD/JPY since these two will often run in Correlation in both Risk Averse and Risk Appetite Climates, except when they are battling with each other!

The Dollar Yen is always a unique Unit, since we can really observe the “Push and Pull” of Price Action since both Units have such similar Characteristics and Qualities. 

Here are The Daily and Hourly Views, so give them a Click for various Levels, and Post-Time is 13:50 GMT.

 

The Daily keep Price “anchored” with its Long-Term Downtrend Channel, and sees the Lower Channel Line providing clear Dynamic Support moving forward. The Key Area in my personal View, will be if Price can reach the Weekly Fib Variant Confluence of the 94.25/31 Area of Dynamic Resistance, and Beach through to the 97.00 Handle in the Mid-Term.

 

 

 

The Hourly shows our Daily Mid-Term 97.00 Thoughts to be rather “Distant”, as Probabilities rest with Price looking for a “Re-Test” of the 91.75 Channel and Support Lows in this case. If the Area is reached, Price may simply work in this “Tight range” of 91.75 to the 93.50’s Static Resistance Area.

 

 

 

 

 

As always, more IntraDay Updates for you as we move along, as we need to check in with The Queen and other Units as we move along.

Please join me soon, and I look forward to it!

:-)

 

 

 


Posted on July 7, 2009 at 9:06 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »

 

Greetings again, Everyone!

While we are at The NYSE Open with The Dow and S&P opening a bit “Flat” inching up at a Fractional pace… we can still look to The Indices for our Correlations over these last few days of Risk-Averse Behavior.

We may even see some of what I call “Typical Tuesday Corrections” that we have seen over the past several months…where we have significant Depreciation across many Currency Units and Commodities… ( although as we have discussed, The Major Comms are still under a great deal of Heat…)

Testing various Levels across most Markets are still “The Plays of the Day”, and our two Major Yen Crosses are no different.

( Just as an Indication of this thought… we are already down after 30 minutes of The Open… )

So we check in with EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY on The Hourly Views, as it will be interesting to see where we end up later in the Day concerning our Macro-Correlations.

Here are The Captures for a Click with Commentary above, and Post-Time is 14:00 GMT.

 

While very Short-Term Corrective Appreciation may be seen across most Yen Crosses, we are still in Risk-Aversion Mode, so be sure to watch those Counter-Positions that you may favor. The Yen has been a bit more “Elusive” than The Dollar in this Area.

 

The EUR/JPY gives us an IntraDay Wedge Pattern to work with here, capped by out Longer-Term Channel Line. The Key in my personal View, will be to see if Price can Breach the Lower Trendline and move South through the 132.40’s. If this is the Case, than it open up the Mid-131’s in The near-Term as we monitor The Indices for Correlation.

 

 

 

 

The GBP/JPY also presents a little Continuation Wedge-Like Behavior here, where the 154.40’s “Transitive Rollover” will be The “Make or Break” Scenario IntraDay for the next few hours. 

The Weekly 38.2% Fibonaci Confluence with Static Resistance will be a Key Area to Breach out of the current Depreciation., although Price is already Negating our Lower “Wedge” Trendline as the 153.00 Handle becomes attractive in The Immediate-Term.

 

 

 

 

 

As always, more Updates to follow as we move around in our still large Macro-Ranges for all of you Longer-Time Cycle Viewers ( like myself ), and as always, check in with the IntraDay Views for our Shorter-Term Friends!

It is once again going to be an interesting Day, so please join me soon!

:-)

 

 

 


Posted on July 6, 2009 at 1:32 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »

 

Greetings again, Everyone!

Our thought on The Fiber earlier certainly took shape, as Risk Aversion and Dollar and Yen Strength continue on to begin our Week.

While The Majors find Depreciation, The Pacific Dollars are at least locked in a bit more “Definable” Consolidation.

Here is the Hourly View of The Aussie and The Kiwi, so give them a Click as always for various Levels of Reference.

Post-Time is 6:30 GMT.

 

The Aussie finds Dynamic Support at the .7900 Handle, and a significant Breach through to at least the .8000 Handle is needed for any Solid Bullish Sentiment moving forward.

( We hold the same “General Areas” of Support and Resistance Transitive Rollovers on both Units here… )

 

 

 

 

 

In a similar Fashion, The Kiwi also needs a “Lift” through to the .6370’s in the Immediate-Term, or we may simply remain Range-bound moving forward.

 

  

 

 

We have the “Indirect” Aspect we talk of so often, with The Aussie and The Kiwi not feeling as much “Pain”, per se, of The Majors themselves.

 

 

For an Immediate-Look at the “Angular” Price Action of The Majors, The “Currency Majors Technical Perspective” Report was just published…. and as always more Update to come as we begin our Week!

:-)

 

 

 


Posted on June 29, 2009 at 2:11 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »

 

Greetings again, Everyone!

Dollar and Yen Strength slowly grind away at most Majors and Crosses, despite The Majors still being largely Range-Bound and in Consolidation from the IntraDay Views.

The Asian Equity Markets are down as The Nikkei closes down 225 Points, and The Euro remains under Pressure ahead of The ECB on Thursday. This may begin to “even-out” with a bit of Appreciation, as most Institutional Views will favor a “Neutral” Sentiment going into the Meeting and Decision.

Here are the Hourly Views of The EUR/JPY and another look at where we are on The Euro from our last Update at 2:00 GMT.

Give The Captures a Click for various Levels, and Post-Time is 7:15 GMT.

 

 

The Euro Yen sees an Hourly “loose” Triple-Top Formation here, as Price looks towards the 132.60 Area of Daily Static Support with The Yen Appreciation, as Price breaches Immediate-Term 133.50’s Dynamic Support.

Clearance there sees the 131.40’s with Clear Bearish Sentiment In favor at this point… with a solid Violation above the 135.00 Handle Resistance to see any Bullish Sentiment resume.

 

 

 

 

 

The Euro sees out Magenta Dynamic Support Line that we spoke of last Update with Precision, so Rejecting or Respecting the Level is something to be Mindful of going forward, as it is a “New’ Support Area.

A Clip sees the 1.3950’s and potentially the 1.3880’s in the Near-Term…while Bullish Sentiment will only be Seen with Conviction if Price can Clear the 1.4118/20 Resistance, and remain above the Area.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

We will see how “Deep” The “slight” Risk-Aversion that we are seeing progresses, as we bring in several more Updates throughout the Day!

Please check the just-published  “Currency Majors Technical Perspective” Report  for more Immediate-Term Details on The Majors. and please join me soon for another Update!

:-)

 

 

 


Posted on June 28, 2009 at 21:17 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »

 

Greetings, Everyone and Welcome to Monday!

We have a somewhat-”rushed” Week with the U.S. 4th of July Independence Day on Saturday, which brings ADP, NFP, Jobless Claims and such a day earlier than usual as U.S. Markets will be closed for The Holiday.

The ECB holds the Majority of Focus this Week outside of the U.S. Data, where Inflationary Concerns still “haunt” The ECB, and their “Independent Stance” in general in relation to other Global Central Banks.

Dollar Strength sees some Daylight to begin the Week, as Crude Oil and Gold open lower.

Let’s check in with The EUR/USD, so here is the Hourly with Commentary above.

Give it a Click for Levels of Reference, and Post-Time is 2:10 GMT.

The Fiber sees Consolidation on the Hourly View ( nothing new here… since I have written and you have read this Word 4 million times in the past few weeks… hee hee… ).

Price simply cannot maintain and Hold above the 1.4100 Handle, as a fall into Accumulation @ the 1.4050’s  leads us into the “Confluence” Area of the 1.400 Handle with Dynamic Magenta 1.3980’s/1.400’s Support Area.

The 1.3880’s “Box” sees the next area of Support, where Bullish Sentiment is largely lost In Favor of Bearish Sentiment with a Clean Break.

 

 

 

 

 

It is early in The Asian-Pacific Sectors, and early in the Week… so we check back in with plenty of Updates for you!

In the Interim, please join me at the 6:30 GMT Hour for our European Session Installment of the “Currency Majors Technical Perspective” Report, and see how we have progressed so far!

See Everyone Soon!

;-)

 

 

 


Posted on June 25, 2009 at 20:12 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »

 

Greetings, Everyone, and Welcome to Friday!

While The Nikkei and other Asian-Pacific Bourses move into Positive Territory on the back of the U.S. Equity Close, we are still working with Ranges and Continuation as a whole… as evident by the various Technical Patterns that we see around The Markets with Flag, Triangles, Wedges, and the like.

While we have had plenty of Volatility and IntraDay Opportunity as we have discussed… we still look out and consider the Larger Ranges we are in… also a Topic we have visited many times here on The Blog!

We have a look at The EUR/GBP in this Case for a fine Illustration of this type of Behavior… 

Give The Captures a Click with Commentary above, and Post-Time is 1:15 GMT.

 

 

The Euro Pound is historically our “Consolidation Ranging King” in this case… except for the last couple of years… so we have a look at The Unit on The Daily View, as it works through an Hourly Symmetrical Triangle within a clear Macro-Downtrend Channel.

 

 

 

 

 

 The Hourly Views sees the Symmetrical Triangle clearly Intact… as Price looking to be “In Concert” with the overall Downtrend from March is Highly-Probable in this case.

A Break to at least the 61.8% Weekly Fib Variant of the October ‘08 Weekly Uptrend @ the .8500 Handle in the Immediate-Term. Continuation will see the .8400 Area of “Basing” Support in the Near-Term.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Please join me, as always, for the final “Currency Majors Technical Perspective” Report of the Week at 6:30 GMT as we move into The European Session.

Of course, many Blog Updates to follow as well… as we see where our last Day of Trading takes us!

Please Join Me!

:-)

 

 

 


Posted on June 25, 2009 at 2:21 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »

 

Greetings again, Everyone!

We come off of the Asian-Pacific Sectors with their Bourses in largely Positive Territory, especially The Nikkei… as we see this “Carryover” into most Majors… either in the Form of Bullish Sentiment, or Bullish Corrective Sentiment with IntraDay Flag/Pennant Continuation Patterns..

Overall despite the Deep IntraDay Volatility we have seen the past couple of Weeks at least… We are still “caught” in Large Macro-Ranges that we just can’t seem to Break through to either “Side of The Fence”.

Here are The Fiber Captures with Commentary above, so give them a Click for Levels of Reference.

Post-Time is 7:20 GMT.

 

 

The Fiber remains “trapped” on the Weekly View of about 250 Pips for the last Month… despite The Wicks adding plenty of Volatility.

 

 

 

 

The Hourly View sees Price Appreciation in a Corrective Fashion with the Hourly Bear Flag/Pennant Continuation Formation.

A Clip of the 1.4000 Handle Resistance sees 1.4050’s… with Failure to Complete The Flag sees Depreciation back to the 1.3920’s Support Area which will bring Bearish Sentiment back In Favor.

 

 

 

 

 

Have a look at The  “Currency majors Technical Perspective” Report  for more Immediate-Term Views, and as always…I will return with several more Updates as we head into The GDP and Weekly Unemployment Claims Data Points!

:-)

 

 

 


Posted on June 23, 2009 at 2:15 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »

 

Greetings again, Everyone!

We enter into The European Session with EuroZone Equity Futures bidding lower on the back of slightly Negative Bourse Movement in the Asian-Pacific Sectors. From the IntraDay Views, we are seeing a bit of “Mixed Sentiment” as The Dollar and The Yen find some Disconnect with Correlations.

Both Risk-Averse Currencies see Strength in most Majors, albeit the Swissy is beginning to show early Signs of Accumulation and Neutrality. This may be signaling Behavior leading to Clear Consolidation… that will “bleed-out” into other Units moving forward.

While The Fiber and Cable show clear Downtrends, the Strength of The Yen is eclipsing The Dollar, as a Sentiment Shift develops due to eventual “Muting” Behavior ahead of The FOMC Decision tomorrow.

The Euro Pound is Illustrative of this current ”Easing Momentum” on The Hourly View, and here is The Capture with Commentary above, so give it a Click as always.

Post-Time is 7:15 GMT.

 

 

While the Hourly Uptrend Channel is clearly in View… We can observe Accumulation which will lead into Solid Consolidation if the Dynamic Magenta Range Holds between the .8480-8510 Levels.

Continuation sees the .8530’s Static Resistance Area In View with even a Reach to the .8600 Handle in the near-Term… although out on the Mid-Term Larger Views… the .8250’s still remains Deep Static Support due to the “Heavy” Euro and resilient Pound moving forward.

 

 

 

 

 

We will check on The Unit as we move along, and for more Immediate-Term Detail of the varying “Degrees” of Dollar and Yen Strength and the “MIxed Sentiment” we spoke of… please have a look at the  “Currency Majors Technical Perspective” Report  just published.

As always, please join me for several more Updates today, as we move closer and closer into FOMC Territory, while also being Mindful of the 14:00 GMT U.S. Existing Home Sales Data Point as well!

:-)

 

 

 

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