Posted on June 17, 2009 at 16:21 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »

 

Greetings, Everyone at The NYSE Close!

As we discussed in our previous Posts today… The Equity Markets are largely “Flat” today, and provided no real useful Correlation Activity for our Purposes here in the FX World.

The Yen Crosses largely continued on with their Risk-Averse Dollar Strength, as did most Major Units concerning The Dollar.

In my personal View, most of our Volatility came today in Commodities, as we saw earlier with the “Noisy” and “Erratic” Behavior in Crude Oil and Gold.

The Queen looked, perhaps, the most Volatile of The “Four Siblings” , as The Pound worked a 270-Pip Range into a “Feeding Frenzy” with Massive Swing “Whipsaw” Behavior.

Here is The Daily and Hourly Views for an IntraDay Illustration of The “Sharks in the Water”, if you will… hee heee….

Give The Captures a Click, and Post-Time is 21:20 GMT.

 

The Daily gives us a Clear View of the “almost” Double-Top Formation Completion we are seeing here… with “Full Textbook” Completion to be seen at the back into the 1.5350’s… although surely this is not In Favor in the Near-Term.

 

 

 

 

The Hourly is largely still Rangebound between the 1.6220’s Support and the 1.6480’s, Price is “caught” Mid-Air as an IntraDay Bull Flag appears to be in development here. Any Corrective Reactions in the Immediate-Term sees the 1.6315 Dynamic Support Area South… as 1.6480 is out Clear Resistance to the North.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Be sure to join me later for tomorrow’s “Big Blog” Post as we work through the current Price Action moving into the Asian-Pacific Sectors.

I hope to see all of You then!

:-)

 

 

 


Posted on June 17, 2009 at 2:21 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »

 

Greetings again, Everyone!

We see EuroZone Equity Futures Builds bidding a bit lower coming out of the rather “Neutral to Positive” Asian-Pacific Sectors. The CAC40, FTSE, and The DAX are down slightly, as The Euro looks to Dollar Weakness within Its Correlating Relationship with Its own Equity Desks.

( EZ Markets now open…with Equities largely bidding a bit higher… )

We keep an eye out later concerning Macro-Data Points for the U.S. CPI to help to Maintain or Reject Dollar Sentiment moving throughout the Day, but in the Interim, The Euro Appreciation rides on the back of the Macro-Daily Head and Shoulders Formation… which looks to the “Neckline” Area of 1.3800 Figure Daily Static Support.

Here is The Daily and The Hourly View as we begin The European Session, so give The Captures a Click for various Levels of Reference, with Commentary above as always.

Post-Time is 7:20 GMT.

 

 

Here is a Clear View of The Daily with Long-Term Trendlines of Focus, and The Head and Shoulders Formation with Neckline Areas easily delineated.

 

 

 

 

 

 The Hourly View gives more Clarity, as Price is “Anchored” by Its Uptrend Channel and looks to the Daily May 18th Upleg 50% Fib Variant for Dynamic Support in The Immediate-Term. A Breach here sees the 1.3850’s Support probably Cleared, as Price looks for Downside Contact with the 1.3800 Daily H&S Neckline Support.

Bullish Build will find the Area Attractive, as Price then looks to Clear the 1.3930’s Dynamic Resistance in The Near-Term.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Please feel free to check the just-published  “Currency Majors Technical Perspective”  Report going right along with this Post for more Immediate-Term Detail on the Four Major Units, and please join me as always, for more Blog Updates to come as we move along!

I hope to see all of You soon!

:-)

 

 

 


Posted on June 10, 2009 at 9:09 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »

 

Greetings once again, Everyone!

We finally embark on some Accumulating Activity with most Units after Deep Surges in Price Appreciation… especially on The Aussie and The Queen.

The Russian Reserves Situation took Its Toll on some additional Sell-Off Momentum, as The Massive Holds from Russia in U.S. Treasury Reserves are Cut.

Additionally, U.S. Trade Balance and U.K. Trade Balance Figures on the Macro-View cam in “Wider-Than-Expected”… and At the U.S. Equities Open, we see The Dow bidding up slightly by around 64 Points and The S&P 500 by about 7 Points, respectively.

As we now move throughout the U.S. Session… in my personal View… The Equity Markets and Indices will prove to be The Bellwether of Guidance for The Major Currencies as we move along.

Equities and Indices will digest the Data Point Figures and The Russian News and also as Bond Yields soar to about 4.7% for the 30Y and 3.0% for the 10Y Notes.

We check in with The USD/CAD and The EUR/USD as well as Crude Oil… with the EIA Builds expected to be “Better-Than-Expected” with API and EIA Upgrades, which are also a Factor in continuing Dollar Weakness overall.

Give the Captures a Click for Levels of Reference, and Commentary is above as usual.

Post-Time is 14:00 GMT.

 

 

The Loonie is Capped in a Tight Consolidative Range between the 1.0980’s and the 1.1060’s “Transitive Rollover” Dynamic Support Area. Some may View the Technical Formation of the Hourly Head & Shoulders to be Complete with the Downside Momentum leading into Consolidation as largely Complete in this Case.

A Break back into the Daily Bear Flag Formation “Channel” ( which we are seeing now…) will see Dynamic Resistance at the Weekly 38.2% Fib Variant of the May 17th Downleg here on The Hourly IntraDay View.

 

 

 

 

 

 The Fiber shows our IntraDay Range Accumulation, as Price is “Anchored” by the 110-Pip Range of about 1.4034 to 1.4144. A Downside-Violation is Highly Probable here, as Price looks in the Immediate-Term towards the 1.4000 Figure as a Near-Term Base… which we are seeing right now as of Post-Time.

A Breach out of the Range sees a Visit back into the Uptrend Daily Channel, which originated at the May 18th Lows… where Solid Daily Static Resistance at the 1.4250’s Area may Clip the Appreciation moving forward.

 

 

 

 

 

Crude also shows the Deep Sentiment in actual Inventory Expectations and Builds… as well as more Momentum for the Inverse Crude Oil/Dollar Correlation Factor.

Anchored in an IntraDay Range, Price is beginning to see Accumulation, which if Continued…will Cut back into the Mid-Line S.D. Channel Range with Near-Term Corrections possibly Held at the $67.30’s Area.

If Seen and Held… The Area will simply attract more Bullish Builds to move back into the “New Range” of the Low $70’s as seen on the Hourly Capture.

 

 

 

 

 

 

So there we are for now!… and more Updates to follow, as always!

Please be Mindful as this Accumulation continues into Consolidation, and the Extent at which we may see Corrective Sentiment moving forward. As we always say… other Styles of Trading and Viewpoints excel in these Climates… so there is Opportunity for All!

Remember… I try to Write and Design The Blog as an “Equal Opportunity Area”… so All Trading Views are Welcome as long as your Risk Profile is in Good Shape for your particular Views!

;-)

 

 


Posted on June 2, 2009 at 8:32 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »

 

Greetings once again, Everyone!

We are beginning to see some “Slowing Down” of Momentum and Behavior across most Market Units… as Accumulation and Continuation “Clusters”, “Flags”, etc. are being seen from a Technical Perspective.

Equity Futures are bidding lower on the back of Inflationary concerns with Treasury Yields possibly being a Catalyst to increase Mortgage Rates and such in the Housing Sector.

Gold sharply reversed IntraDay, but bounced back nicely on the back of this SAME Rationale… Inflation.

Safe-Haven Sentiment is returning there, despite the Natural Tendency for “Attraction” to the $1000/Oz. Level being a Factor as well.

The July Crude Futures Contract, ( as well as the Continuous “True” Contract on the NYMEX…) looks to continue a bit of Consolidation from an IntraDay View.

The Dow and S&P 500 look to open lower a bit as well…. so my entire Thought Process here reflects back to the “Shallow” Corrections we were speaking of being Mindful of as we move forward.

My larger Views on the Macro-Corrections are certainly not in View at this time, so “Normal” Technicals are playing out and laying Proper Foundation for us as we move along… especially for those of you who work on an IntraDay Basis.

 

 

Let’s check in on The USD/JPY from our last Update… as our Flag certainly has been broken to The Downside for the “Magnet” Transitive Rollover of the 95.50’s Static Support Area.

The “Push and Pull Battle” of these Two Currencies is clear here… as our Bull Flag is largely Negated, although Price may be attracted back into the Flag Area at the same time… Clear Indications of the “Infighting” with these two Low Yielding Brother-In-Arms!        ;-)

Give the Captures a Click, and Post-Time is just shy of the U.S. NYSE Opening Bell at 13:25 GMT.

 

 

 

 

 

 Gold and Oil still look to find their way to a bit more Correction… and again… these Levels are for a bit more of a Longer-Term View as Accumulation continues with Crude and Gold works Its larger Range here…

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

We have Pending Home sales on the way soon… so be Mindful of this Data, as any Housing Data is in the Spotlight lately with the whole Treasury/Bond Yields Behavior and the concerns for Interest Rates keeping some Pressure on opening Opportunities for the Consumers!

As always, I will be back with more Updates as we move along, so please join me soon!

:-)

 

 

 


Posted on June 2, 2009 at 2:53 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »

Greetings again, Everyone!

We make a brief Stop for a visit with Dollar Yen… since these “Two Friends” are receiving the most Pain concerning the current Risk Appetite.

We do have a Clear Hourly Bull Flag Continuation Pattern here to work with… and if it comes to Full Fruition… we will see the 99.00 Handle easily in the Mid-Term.

Of Course… that type of Appreciation is only “Technically” Correct if the Flag comes to “Full Completion”, so in the Interim… a Break of the Flag to the Upside sees Clearance of 96.84 Static Resistance to Breach the 97.24 Area for a reach at the 98.00 Handle.

Downside Breaches of The Flag look to Static Resistance at 95.50 and the 95.00 Areas in the Near-Term.

Here is an Hourly View… where The Dollar and The Yen continue their own little “Push and Pull” Behavior that we have become so accustomed to with this Unit lately!

Give the Capture a Click for Levels, and Post-Time is 7:50 GMT.

Here is the just-published  “Currency Majors Technical Perspective” Report for more IntraDay Detail and Levels as we move forward… as we see even more “Ranging” Push and Pull Struggle between these Two in the Near-Term.

The Continual Battle in USD/JPY …. Strong vs. Strong or they are Weak vs. Weak.        ;-)

As always, I will see you for several more Updates as we move along throughout our Day!

:-)


Posted on June 1, 2009 at 11:16 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »

 

Greetings again to Everyone!

A fine Trading Day to begin the Week, as The Dollar and Yen are eclipsed by their Currency Counter-Parts all Across The Board.

Many of you have known for year now my “Love” of the EUR/GBP Unit… My Old “Watching the Paint Dry Friend”… and surely Opportunity has been seen here, so we will have a look at the Unit again as we have progresses from our last Blog Update.

U.S. Equities are still “Riding the Bullish Rails” as the Dow S& P500, Oil, Crude, and the NASDAQ are all still in positive territory as of Post-Time.

Our Correlations here with the Yen Crosses are “In Check” as well… carried not only by the Indices… but also by their “Currency Majors Cousins”.

Here is the Hourlyof the Euro Pound and the Daily/Hourly Pound Yen for some Illustration on Key Support and Resistance Levels.

Give the Captures a Click for Commentary, as always… and Post-Time is 16:15 GMT.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

We will check on the Day as we progress to the U.S. Close, and onto the Asian-Pacific Sectors as we move forward!

;-)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


Posted on May 29, 2009 at 8:29 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »

 

Greetings again, Everyone!

After some Data-Point “Digestion”  with U.S. PCE and GDP entering with slightly Negative to Mixed Data Points, most Units were simply continuing Trending Behavior nonetheless.

Even at Writing-Time with U.S. Equity Futures Bidding Higher about 10 minutes before the NYSE Open… we can already see some Macro-Accumulation beginning as Profit-Taking and Institutional Re-Positioning begins with the Weekend and the last Full Trading Day of the Month to “Square the Books”, as it were.

The Queen and Her Friend, The Aussie, simply look to Consolidate slightly, but hold onto their solid underlying Bullish Momentum.

In cases like this… Conventional Fibonacci Variants come into View as we observe the Probabilities of where Price may progress as we move forward.

I stay with the Hourly ”Naked” Captures here, so the Fib Clusters are clear.

Give them a Click, as always… and Post-Time is 13:20 GMT.

 

 

 

 

 

 

“The Battle of The Channel” with EUR/GBP moves along as The Queen continues to weaken a bit here on the Euro Correction.

 

 

 

Let us monitor how continued Institutional Activity affects most Units as we move closer to the London Close with Chicago PMI on the way as well…

Our Fib Retracements Areas may come into View… or may simply be “Too Deep” for today’s Accumulating Price Action that is taking place already!

:-)

 

 

 


Posted on May 28, 2009 at 15:30 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »

 

Greetings once again, Everyone at the N.Y. Close!

Equities and Indices had a rather decent Day with The Dow right at Dynamic Support at 8403.80… just ahead of the Static Resistance at the 8435/36  Area.

The S&P 500 moves further from that Massive Level of 880, and clocks in with an almost 14-Point Increase at 906.85.

While we would “expect” to see some “Bleedout” from this in Dollar-Related Units… The “Heavy” Euro just cannot escape that 2-Ton Weight on Its back, as Consolidation continues on basically a “Neutral” Session for the Currency Giant.

Here are the Hourly Views of both of these as nice Illustrations of where we are.

Give the Captures a Click for Levels, as significant Commentary is not really needed at this moment.

Post-Time is just a bit past 20:30 GMT.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Please stay tuned as we enter the “Big Blog” Post for tomorrow… as we have United States GDP on the way as the “Big Data Point” on The Calendar….as well as EU CPI and U.K. Housing Data, among others.

We bring in the Yen Crosses for tomorrow’s Post… as we may see some Corrective Sentiment on the way!

Please join me in a few hours!

:-)

 

 

 


Posted on May 6, 2009 at 2:20 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »

 

Greetings Again, Everyone at the “Bewitching Hour” of Midnight!

The “Four Siblings”, our Fiber, Cable, Yen, and Swissy Friends have been taking a little “Rest” the last few hours as Accumulation moves into Perspective with some IntraDay Ranges and clear Channels within Static Activity.

We take the Hourly Views without Commentary, as I have simply “Ellipsed” the Range Points currently in View.

This brings up the Valid Points that while these Four Units will move in their various “Correlative Relations” to each other… they are often “Co-Dependent” and will be Range-Bound more often on an IntraDay View than we may expect to observe.

( More Detail of these Units can be found on the just-Posted Currency Majors Report here…  where I use more Dynamic Levels in more of a Immediate-Term Perspective each Day… )

 

Post-Time is 7:20 GMT, so give the Captures a Click!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 Now…despite these Ranges we have as “Anchors” for Price… the recent Dollar and Yen Strength may simply take Price out of Accumulation and back to Directionality… as the Dollar Yen has already done Pricing-In a bit ”lower” than Its illustrated Range.

Let’s see how “Valid” the Ranges stay as we move throughout the London/European Session, and into the U.S. Session and NYSE Equities Open!

:-)

 

 

 

 

 


Posted on April 24, 2009 at 6:35 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »

 

Greetings once again, Everyone!

A brief Update on our Yen Crosses as we continue to adhere to the “Anchors” of the Daily Triangle Formations.

All Four Units are now back inside these Patterns… simply exhibiting Price Behavior that defines the Consolidation Concept quite well !

Dynamic Resistance Levels continue to hold with Reinforcement by the Triangles themselves moving forward.

Here are all Four Units on the Hourly Views, and Post-Time is 11:30 GMT.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

We will return after the NYSE Open, as , indeed, Equities Correlations may provide the “Catalysts” these Units need to Break Out of these Formations!

:-)

 

 

 

 

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