Greetings again, Everyone!

We have had some time to “digest” a significant portion of Bernanke’s Testimony on The Hill, as well as today’ EIA Crude Inventory Builds and we see our Crude/Equities/Euro Correlations functioning well from an IntraDay View.

While in the “Trasditional” sense, The Fiber’s Correlation with Gold is always significant… we often see Oil playing a solid Role here as well due primarily to the Euro moving “loosely but generally” In Tandem with the NYMEX WTI Continuous Contract ( The West Texas Intermediate Futures).

The Rationale behind this is rather extensive to get into, but for the sake of my point… we can use the Classic “Inversion” of Strong Oil and Gold equalling A Weak Dollar… since both Commodities are bought and sold in Dollars.

This translates for us with a Rising EUR/USD correlating very highly with a Rising Oil Price… since both are seeing a Weakening Dollar.

Relative Performance so far today with The Dollar sees Crude off about 0.30 %, while the Euro is up about 0.10%.

OK… all of you know me very well by now and if I do not stop… I will start going into my “CVJ’s Bag of Analogies”, and ramble for days…so let’s move on to The Captures!   

Here we have The Hourly Views of both Units, where we can see how tightly Price is correlating on the IntraDay Basis… literally right down to The Wicks and “Directionality” of Support and Resistance Levels.

Give The Captures a Click, as always… and Post-Time is 18:30 GMT.

Of course… time for one of my “Rhetorical” Questions!

“Is this a Euro and Crude Move here?… or are we seeing The Dollar driving these two Ships…”

I have my Views… but what are yours?… Please feel free to Comment, as always!

As always, more Updates to come… so please join me after The NYSE Close, and we can check on those larger Equity and Index Correlations as well!

Greetings Everyone, and Welcome to Wednesday!

We prepare for the Bank of England Minutes to be released, as we look for any additional signs of increased Stimulus since they failed to do their “Allocated Increase” of 25B Sterling in additional Asset Purchases.

The Markets will be especially watchful for any Rhetoric or Indications of a “Timeline” of if and when this will occur…as well as the “possibility” of additional Policy since the BoE does have their “Eye on the Inflationary Ball” with its very sensitive Economy of late.

In addition, we will certainly watch the EIA Crude Inventory Builds Data Release as well… since Crude has been an interesting “Leading Indicator” of sorts… at lease concerning Sentiment in the last few weeks.

Let’s have a look at The Queen again… as well as GBP/JPY… where we already notice a literal “Grinding Halt” to Price Action on both Units ahead of The Minutes.

Here is The Hourly… where our Levels are basically unchanged from our earlier Update… as Price looks to hold the 1.6380’s Transitive Rollover Support Area in the Immediate-Term.

Give The Capture a Click, and Post-Time is 2:45 GMT.

Pound Yen is seeing very similar Price action as well… as Price looks to hold the 153.20’s/00 Handle in the Immediate-Term. We are already seeing continuation of the Yen Strength, as the Unit is off about 66 Pips or so for the Day already in “relative” terms.

A Breach of the Area will see the 152.30’s with ease for another “Re-Test” to form an Hourly Double-Bottom in the Near-Term if the Area holds.

We will surely check in with these Developments as we progress, so please stop back by frequently for more Updates… as I always look forward to all of your Visits!

Greetings again, Everyone!

We are seeing The Dollar and Yen continue to Correct across most Currency Units, as well as Gold and Oil, despite continued Macro-Uncertainties about Global Economic Recovery.

Many Units are still finding “Basing” and Consolidating Behavior with Technical Formations such as Flags/Pennants and Horizontal Ranges, although within these Areas clear IntraDay Directionality is being Seen.

Similar to The Euro, Crude Oil is seeing a burst of Bullish Momentum, despite Price simply arriving to clear Static Resistance Levels within a larger Range. The Confluence of the July 2008 Weekly 23.6% Fib Variant and $60.50 Resistance is holding Price to the Upside, and if the Area is Breached, a new “Transitive Rollover” of Resistance-becoming-Support will be in Place, although any true Bullish Momentum in Crude will be considered in a :Counter-Trend” Fashion…even if Price moves beyond the $61.35 Range/Resistance Zone.

Here is The Hourly, so give it a Click for Various Levels.

Post-Time is 7:40 GMT.

The EUR/JPY is indicative of slight Risk Appetite returning to The markets, as we have our Equities Correlations back Intact… not to mention “Cross-Current” Correlations with Global Equity Exchanges such as The FTSE… which is up about 3% at The London Open.

Price looks towards the 130.60’s/80’s Static and Dynamic Resistance Levels, as Price Appreciation pulls out of the 127.80’s to 129.00 Hourly Range. Further Appreciation sees the 131.40’s in the Near-Term, while Failure to Hold the 129.00 Handle of Static Support will see the 127.80’s for multiple Hourly Tests of the Area.

If this Behavior is Seen, the Tests will weaken Support and a potential Breach towards the 127.00 Handle in the Mid-Term would be plausible.

The  “Currency Majors Technical Perspective” Report  has been published for Immediate-Term Details on The Majors, as well as the new Installments of The Fundamental Forex Foundations Section for Data Point Releases today and tomorrow of PPI and CPI.

The Retail Sales and Business Inventories Reports will be published as soon as possible, and I will have those Links for you as soon as possible!

Please join me for more Updates moving forward, especially as we move towards Data Point Releases at 12:30 GMT.

In the Interim, keep a Mindful Eye on CPI out of the U.K. in about one hour’s time!

Greetings Everyone, and Welcome to Thursday!

With The Massive Risk-Averse Volatility and Strength of The Yen and The Dollar, IntraDay Perspectives surely felt some Heat moving through the most recent Trading Sessions.

We have discussed the Macro-Economic Issues of these At Length all week here on The Blog, so we do not need to revisit them.

In my experience, we see certain types of reactions to Rapid Speed and Momentum of Price Action…. one of them is what I call “Tunnel Vision”.

As I mentioned on the previous Post, The Concept of “Chasing The Trade” comes into Play as Price illicit an almost “Emotional” Response.

As I always say, I do not have issues with any Type or Style of Trading that one may prefer… as long as Risk Exposure and Parameters are consistent for that individual Trader.

With virtually all Units today from an IntraDay Level, if proper Stop Placement was utilized then  a Fractional Loss was had and we move on to Trade Another Day.

The “Speed” at which The Yen surged was only in about a 4-Hour Window, where the 400-500 Pip Moves are certainly not a regular occurrence…. OR Are They???

Here is where my “Rhetorical” Question comes in once again…

“Was The Yen Surge today a big shock and surprise?… Crude Oil?… Gold?… The Queen and The Euro?…”

Let’s have a look and see some Indications of “Market Memory” that may provide us with some Insights.

Here are The Monthly Views of Crude, Gold, The Fiber, and The Queen, so give them a Click for Clarity as they are rather “Compressed” with The Fib Variant Extensions and Projections.

Post-Time is 2:00 GMT but of course on Monthly Views… We really do not have to worry about “Accurate” Time!… hee hee hee…  

Gold looks to The Fib Variant Projection here stemming from the March 2001 Low to the May 2003 Spike High, giving us a “relative” 38.2% to 139.2% Projected Area.

We could have “anticipated” the relative Price Action here… so let’s see how we fair on Crude.

Crude provides even greater “Accuracy” here with the massive Bear Flag Formation as Price reaches the Fib Variant with a Variation of about 40 cents… nice indeed!

… And The Queen?… Jackpot for Her Majesty!

How about The Fiber ?…  A little more “Subjective” depending on where use wish to Fib from… I tend to work with Clusters and Confluence all the time as all of you well know, so I chose both The Upleg and Downleg Variants.

We still get a “Close” 90-Pip Variant Range here…

So there we have it!

By incorporating Longer-Term Views in your Work, you certainly do not have to be an Active Position Trader!

It is all relative, and like everything else in Life…

We can usually Find Out Where We are Going By Remembering Where We have Been…

Please join me, as always,  for the 6:30 GMT “Currency Majors Technical Perspective” Report, so I will see you in a few hours!

 UPDATE @ 8:00 GMT:

The “Currency Majors Technical Perspective” Report  has been published, and we are already seeing signs of Accumulation as we have Hourly Bear Flags across many Currency Units!

Keep an eye on these Retracments, as even on The Majors, we are seeing potential “Breaching” Activity that is already “Negating” the Formations. As always… these can be “loose” Formations and certainly do not have to be “Textbook Beautiful”… as long as they hold their Function.

Please have a visit on The FXstreet Calendar and Home Page as our FXstreet Advisor and Myself bring you another “Action-Packed” Edition of “The Bank of England Interest Rate Live Coverage” @ 10:45 GMT!

See You Soon and of course, plenty of Updates to come here on The Blog today!

Greetings again, Everyone!

As we move about 30 Minutes from The NYSE Close… our first Post at 7 GMT this morning ( Midnight for “Crazy CVJ”… as everyone usually calls me … ) comes to Fruition as we have worked throughout our Day.

The Dow and S&P 500 Correlations keep The Yen Itself extremely Well-Bid… as The Yen Crosses take a Dive along with Dollar Yen.

Of course also as we have discussed, The Energy Sectors are full of Uncertainty as Crude Clips about $9.00 in the last Week alone… down about 12% .

In my personal View,  The 875 Area or so on The S&P is a crucial Area here… as The Equities and Indices as a Whole pulled a few “Bear Market Rallies” that simply may have been Over-Extended.

To clarify my Thoughts here… We simply still have this Wide “Dis-Connect” between our actual Economic Health and Macro-Market Activity.

 Of course… I am in NO WAY implying The Markets are Wrong… as in my personal Philosophy…They Never Are.

It Is what It Is… and it is “Our Job” to Act accordingly with Prudence.

There is certainly a Difference between Mis-Pricing… and Markets actually being Wrong…

“OK…Off The Soap Box, CVJ! We told you yesterday!… Enough of your  Philosophical Babbling!”… the CVJ Fan Club Guys say.

( Is it time already to send them off for another Vacation???… hee heee…  

Here we bring up our Euro Yen and Pound Yen Crosses from earlier, and Price Action on both is rather Self-Explanatory.

Both Units Clip our Dynamic Trendlines to the Downside as Price reaches for more Stable Supportive Handles.

Give them a Click, and Post-Time is 19:50 GMT.

Now… as we move into The Asian-Pacific Sectors, we “should’ see “Bleedout” from the NY Session, and have The Asian Bourses bidding and opening lower… but of course, we shall see… as we prefer not to “Predict Anything”, but use Probabilities in our Favor.

We will take a good look at The Dollar Yen for tomorrow’s “Big Blog Post”, so please join me in a few hours as we move into Asian Work!

I will see Everyone soon!

Greetings, Everyone and Welcome to Tuesday!

We have seen what is in my personal View… a Classic Battle for the Supremacy of Indecision!

While The Dollar and Yen worked through Risk Aversion to open the New Week… the Climate quickly turned with The Euro, The Queen, and even The Pacifics ( ahead of The RBA Decision…which in my View will Hold, as will The BoE… ) gaining a portion of those gains back as The Dow and S&P 500 attempted at least some Covering to Close the Day.

Gold and Crude are still holding their Depreciation Status… so some “slight De-Coupling” of The IntraDay Perspective is a bit evident here.

“CVJ!… You are Speaking-in- Tongues again!… Are we Bullish?… Bearish?… Gold?…Crude?… Make up your Mind, Man! We have had it with your Mercurial Ways!… our long-lost Friends, The CVJ Fan Club Guys say.

( Hee hee hee… and all of you Dear Readers thought these Geniuses were on permanent Vacation!… well…. we have to have a laugh now and then, right??? )

In all seriousness here… the Indecisive nature of The Markets as a whole are indicative of the Carry-Over from the U.S. Holiday, the expectations of The G-8 and the surprising “Pro-Active” Nature of China… as well as the rest of The Asian-Pacific Sectors ( i.e. Taiwan).

Will China come through with the “Jawboning Feel” of “The Super-Sovereign” Currency to replace The Dollar Reserve?

If you ask me… the continual “flip-flopping” there reminds me of those other historical Jawboning Masters… The Bank of Japan!  

Let’s roll out The Aussie again ahead of The RBA’s Rate Decision, and we will check in as well for the 7-8GMT Blog Update as well.

Here is The Daily and Hourly View with Commentary above, so give The Capture a Click for Levels…. and Post-Time is 23:00 GMT.

The Aussie looks to strengthen on the wide-Consensus that The RBA will Hold yet again with their “Wait and See” Policy.

Even so, we still see the Range that we looked at last week, so perhaps this will be The “Catalyst” to snap through above the .8000 Handle in the Immediate-Term.

Our Longer-Term Uptrend Line here on The Hourly will certainly come into Play for more Clarification as well.

As always, I will be with you around 6:30 GMT for the early “Currency Majors Technical Perspective” Report and a Blog Update to follow, so please feel free to join me then!

Greetings, Everyone, and Welcome to Sunday!

Happy Father’s Day to all of you out there who are Fathers, have Fathers, have Brothers who are Fathers, Friends and Colleagues who are Fathers, and every other Variation of the Theme!  

A Special Father’s Day to very recent Fatherhood for my dear Friend and Primary Mentor of all these Years… Ed Ponsi, and his baby Daughter, Renee… as well as my good friend and Colleague here on The Blogroll, James Chen!… and his Daughter of about Two Weeks!  

We focus a bit briefly this morning ( 9:30 a.m. my time… so 16:30 GMT ), on my personal View that The Dollar will be somewhat of a “Leading Indicator” to open this Trading Week concerning The Commodities that Currency Traders focus on the most, Gold and Oil.

The Depreciation Drop in Price of Crude leaves The Dollar with a bit of Momentum Energy… as does the continued volatile IntraDay  Consolidation with Gold.

As we mentioned yesterday… The FOMC Meeting this week may not hold any real surprises… and perhaps some basic “typical Rhetoric” on “Slight Improvement… Monitoring Interest Rates and Bond Flow…”, etc. will be what comes to the table.

Let’s take an IntraDay look at Gold and The July Crude Futures Contract which expires tomorrow ( on this particular Platform and Feed… ).

We can see the Deep Depreciation here as various Levels of Support and Resistance are both Clipped and Respected.

Gold sees a bit more “Noise” with Accumulation and Continuation in a rather narrow “Wedge-Like” Hourly Formation.

We will continue on with these Two as The Markets open in Sydney in a few hours, as well as check on some of The Majors as well!

I will see all of you in a few Hours, and enjoy the Day with your Fathers in Person and in Spirit!

Greetings again, Everyone!

We are about 90 Minutes into The NYSE Open, as Equities and Indices are trading higher to start today’s Session.

A boost in Crude Oil Appreciation sees Price providing Momentum for general Dollar weakness, as whay seems to be a “Seasonal Occurrence” with The Niger Delta Attacks… this time on a on a Shell Pipeline… and continued Issues with Iranian Elections provided the “Catalysts” needed to throw The Back Gold above $72 for a moment… as Price now looks to a potential Hourly Bull Flag Formation.

Our Aussie Yen Example came to Fruition as well from our 8:00 GMT Blog Update, which assuredly has some “Bleedout” from The Aussie Dollar Itself… and The Queen takes off on Rhetoric from the International Monetary Fund’s increasing “Presence” on the Global Economic Scene, and Global Growth Estimates being revised “North” by about 2.4%.  Mervyn King also checks in with The U.K. “rate of Economic Decline” is flattening and Basing… which also helped to provide Support for The Pound.

Here are The Hourly Views of The Queen and Aussie Yen with Commentary above, so give the Captures a Click for various Levels.

Post-Time is 15:45 GMT.

 With a push through the 1.6440’s “Transitive Rollover” Resistance-becoming-Support, Price for The Queen now sees the 1.6500 Handle In Sight if 1.6477/80 Dynamic Resistance can be Clipped in the Immediate-Term. Otherwise, a return to “Re-Test” the 1.6400 Handle through 1.6340’s again may Hold Price for the remainder of The Day in this tight Range.

The Aussie Yen also looked for Appreciation, as Price Appreciation still looks to Clip the 78.20 Dynamic Magenta “Range Resistance”, and move towards 78.50’s through the “Confluence” Resistance/Uptrend Line/ Weekly 50% Fib Variant of the Weekly July2008 Downleg. 79.90 acting as Dynamic Support may provide Buoyancy for the rest of Today’s Session, as Accumulation may begin going into The Weekend.

Of course…I will return with more Updates as The markets deal with moving into The Weekend and the parallel Volatility from “Quadruple Witching” in The Equity Options, Index Options, Futures, and Futures Options that we mentioned briefly on one of Wednesday’s Posts!

I hope to see Everyone Soon as we move along!

Greetings, Everyone and Welcome to Thursday!

While we work with all of the Macro-Data, Inflationary Talk, Jawboning Rhetoric for or against The Dollar, Range-Bound Markets, Gold and Oil leading or lagging The Dollar and Equities… and last but not least… Your Dog barking at The Moon!… We always have Pure Technicals to guide us in our Trading Decisions.

Most of you know me by now and realize my enjoyment of Fundamental Data and Event-Risk Concepts… but at heart… I am truly a Technical Guy!… Really!

I try to keep things rather clear and straightforward in The Blog concerning Analysis, and will use a lot of “Sentiment” Concepts as well to reinforce Clarity.

With that being said, let’s take a look at The Aussie and The Loonie, as we throw in Gold and Oil for some Correlation Ideas as well.

These two Units have such a direct relationship to Gold and Crude Oil, as we all well know, that it is necessary to understand their Correlations will wind in and out of each other all the time from an IntraDay Perspective.

It is important to realize that each Unit here must be accepted on Its own Merits and Characteristics, and simply not “assumed” to always be in Complimentary Correlation all the time.

( In these Cases… “Complimentary” being Oil and CAD flowing “Inversely”… and Gold and AUD flowing “In Tandem”…)

Here are the Hourly Views of all Four Units, so please give The Captures a Click for Various Reference Levels.

Post-Time is 2:00 GMT.

As we can see across ALL of these Units… we have IntraDay Consolidation.

At this point from a “Trading Perspective”… we may simply use standard Support and Resistance Strategies to work within The Ranges as long as no Clear Breaks above or below The Outliers are Seen.

My Commentary is sort of “subversive” here… as my entire Point is to really emphasize how “Clear and Effective” Simplicity can be!

Technical Analysis can be as deeply Complex as you wish… and I can keep up with most… but is it really Necessary all the time to have Charts that are so busy… with such complex Commentary… that you do not even know where Price is?…

I thought these Four Units would be fine to Illustrate these general Points in how we “See” these Markets Day In and Day Out.

Sometimes… Simplicity truly is Better.

As always, please join the somewhat- ”Jekyll” Side of me around 6:30 GMT for some Immediate-Term Analysis of The Four Majors with The “Currency Majors Technical Perspective” Report… to be followed by a “Real” Blog Update for all of You!… as opposed to my little “Lesson” here…

I hope to see all of You then!

Greetings again, Everyone!

We are about 90 Minutes into The NYSE Open, with Equities and The indices largely  “Flat” in early Trading as the Futures Block-Orders still come into The Markets.

Gold and Crude Oil see Depreciation overnight and well as The Dollar and Yen seeing general Strength… but eclipsed for a moment on The Vapid CPI Data Points earlier, as well as the more Recent Current Account Deficit…

( Increasing Deficit?… Really?… What a Shock!…)

OK… pardon my “CVJ Guys” Humor… and for those of you wondering… I sent them away for some Psychological Conditioning in the Deserts here in Arizona…    

We check in with Gold and Crude on the IntraDay Levels, as EIA Crude Inventories Data sees Crude down 3.9M Barrels which is Offset by Gasoline Builds which showed a  massive increase of 3.4M Barrels.

Give the Captures a Click, and Post-Time is 15:10 GMT.

Crude sells off on the Initial Data, as Bearish Momentum already in existence fuels the Behavior.

A Clip of the $70’s Area on the Correction may induce additional selling Pressure… as a Bounce from Dynamic Support around $69.00 is Holding for now.

Gold also looks to Its own Dynamic Support at $927.98/928.00 in The Immediate-Term, as we have even more IntraDay Consolidation here.

Price needs to Clip the $919.00 Area in The Near-Term to really Negate the Consolidation for a solid Bearish View… and the “Ambiguity” and “Noise” of The Dollar right now is not assisting Matters in this Case.

 The Fiber still retains an Anchor with our Uptrending Hourly Channel, as Price is held by the 1.3870’s Resistance.

Depreciation will see a fall through 1.3850’s Near-Term Support, and onto our Daily Head and Shoulders Neckline Static Support at the 1.3800 Handle.

Bullish Sentiment will find Fuel if Price Clips the 1.3896 Dynamic Resistance, as well as the 1.3930’s Static Resistance for Trend Resumption in the Near-Term.

As always, I will have more Updates for you as we move on with our Volatile Day, and an interesting Note here…

We have a spmewhat rare “Quadruple Witching Week” !…  Equity Options, Index Options, Futures, and Futures Options all facing Expiry as the Second Quarter comes to a Close. Institutional Motives will look to Settle their Books and do plenty of Re-Positioning… so this is certainly something to be Mindful of as we move along!

Please join me for another Visit soon!