Greetings Everyone, and Welcome to Thursday!

We look a bit ahead today and tomorrow with some significant Data Point Releases that may give The Queen some Impetus to really break it’s larger Time-Cycle Areas of Consolidation.

Retail Sales out of The U.K. brings the spotlight to The Queen, as Consensus calls for a slight Build in Retail Sales… despite the very fragile British Consumer Sentiment Outlook.

(For additional Information on this Data Point, please have a look at “Retail Sales” , among my other Releases, in the new “Fundamental Forex Foundations” Section).

Preliminary GDP is to follow on Friday, which is also looking for a Positive Build… however so slightly it may be… and we will get to this Release in a later Post.

Even with the relatively “Positive” Sentiment out of The MPC, we are still working a 6-Week Range on The Daily View… with Static Support at the 1.6000 Handle and Resistance at the 1.6600 Handle.

I also have a “Mid-Term Dynamic Range” here that will give us a bit more Clarity with Dynamic Support at 1.62000 and Dynamic Resistance at  about 1.6665… although we can still see a rather “Clean” Range of Behavior here.

Give The Captures a Click as always, and Post-Time is 2:00 GMT.

The Hourly View for all of my IntraDay Friends provides a bit more Short-Term Probability with a decent 150-Pip Range to the Downside, and a Dynamic Support Area with 1.6440 Magenta Trendline of the Daily Dynamic Channel to “Bounce” off of if the Area holds for Price Appreciation.

It will be interesting to see if the “slightly positive” Consensus of Retail Sales will actually move the Unit into one of these two “Scenarios”… or if we may simply get a purely Technical Move to simply get out of The larger Range Itself.

Just like The Queen Herself… Price can also be a bit “Impatient”, can’t it!       

We will check back with plenty of more Updates, so please feel free to join me!

Greetings again, Everyone!

We see a subtle “Transition” of Sentiment as Europe rolls into The New York Shores with Risk-Aversion easing into Consolidation, as The Safe-Haven Inflows into our “Low-Yielding Friends”, The Dollar and The Yen see some reprieve.

The increasingly important Trade Balance Data Clips Consensus by a 9.8% Margin, as the surprising Data lifts Safe-Haven Inflows into The Dollar and The Yen, which is an “Inverse” Correlation that reflects the “Positive” Impact of a Weaker Dollar on the Macro-Level.

Similar to our “Inversion” Correlations with Gold and Crude Oil… The Positive Sentiment of a Weaker Dollar translates into a shrinking overall Deficit, so more “Goods and Services are seeing The Export Vessels as they wave “Goodbye!” to the American Ports!”

OK OK… A little “Over-The-Top” for an Analogy… but you see my point…It’s Friday after all, right?

This is translating into some clear “Basing” at many Static and Dynamic Support Areas across many Currency Units and Gold and Oil themselves.

In my personal View… ( and all of you know I have one… hee hee hee… )… the actual Risk-Averse Price Action we have seen was simply “Artificially” Motivated… there was nothing “inherently Healthy” with The Dollar and Yen strengthening due to their own underlying concerns.

While we still “hover” in accumulating and consolidating Behavior and are currently seeing Reversals of “The Short Squeezes” concerning Dollar and Yen… it did not take long to see many of these Behaviors see Intial Immediate-Term Retracements as Prices moved into Thursday.

It does look “familiar” though, doesn’t it!… as most of us simply Traded these Climates all last year as we rode The Dollar and Yen on our Surfboards towards The BBQ’s on every Beach in the World.

Now…since we are discussing Crude Oil Declines in Imports ( the other side of the Trade Balance equation), and Trade Balance itself.

Our Canadian Neighbors did not fair so well… as their Trade Balance falls significantly.

I would like to look at The Unit for Two Reasons… The First is we have not examined it in a week or so… but the Second and more important fits right in with our “Flag/Pennant Theme” of the past few Sessions.

First up is The Daily… and what do we immediately see?

A Beautiful and Massive Bear Flag!

As always, any Chart Pattern or Formation will retain more Validity on the Longer Time-Cycles than on tighter Time-Cycles ( our current Group of Hourly Flags on our last couple of Posts indicate this… as Price action there is much “looser” in Behavior…)

My Post from Wednesday  shows this very clearly…

Here is The Daily, so give it a Click for Levels that are still Valid, and Post-Time is 15:15 GMT.

Our Fibonacci Variant clock right in @ the 38.2% Variant where Static Resistance Confluence is The Key Area at this point…. a “Textbook” Example of Fibonacci at work with clustering Support and Resistance Levels.

On The Hourly, The visit to “Wick City” really sees the underlying Volatility in Price even thought we are in this Macro-Horizontal Range here. We are still “anchored” by The Fib Variant/Resistance Area, as Price looks to keep Risk-Aversion In Check… or simply sail through with Dollar Strength potentially bring Violation to our Daily Bear Flag.

So we move ahead on this rather “Muted” Day which is to be expected.

Price… just like Us… has had a long Week… so we may see some “Covering” later as Profits roll Off The Table for the Weekend, but in general… Price looks to need a nice Scotch, good Cigar, and a Good Book!

Greetings Everyone, and A Fine Sunday to All!

Writing-Time is 7:30 a.m… so 14:30 GMT.

We move away from all of the quasi-political Rhetoric, as all of you know I can only do those Thoughts in small doses… this is not a Political Blog and being largely “Apolitical” myself… there are about 12 million other Venues for Political Views.  

Since it is about 4000 Degrees here in Phoenix already, thoughts of the Water and Surfing come to mind… so let’s have a look at our “Unit of Surfdom”, The Aussie!

We have seen significant Correction and Volatility on The Unit is the Near and Immediate-Terms, despite the fact that out on the Larger-Views, The Pair is Range-Bound and locked in Consolidation.

On The Daily View, we see a Clear Range between the .7780’s and the .8260’s as Price remains “trapped” at the Mid-Point as of this Writing.

A Climb or Fall to either Level will see corresponding Bearish or Bullish Builds as long as each Area Holds with relative Ease.

The Key will be the Observance of how Price BEHAVES at either Level… does It shoot right through?… or will it hover around with little Momentum Propulsion?…

The Hourly View sees the potentially Corrective “Cluster” Area that may be Seen for Bullish Builds… as Price currently consolidates and “Adheres” to the Transitive Rollover Area of the .8070’s Dynamic Support.

A Clean Break of the .7020’s/40’s could see the .7800 Handle with relative Precision, just as a Break of the Inner-Uptrend Line may see Bearish Builds enter if the .8120 Resistance Holds and Price falls for The Hourly Double-Top.

So while the Waves are “choppy” with Consolidation… A Clean Correction holding at the Mid-.79’s and a Clean Clip of .8120 could see a nice Wave for Surfing towards the Sydney Beaches at the .8300’s !

Have a fine Sunday, Everyone… and please join me later for The Sydney Open as we work into another interesting Week with NFP on the Way, The ECB, as well as the shortened- U.S. Holiday Week!

See You Soon!

Greetings again, Everyone!

We come off of the Asian-Pacific Sectors with their Bourses in largely Positive Territory, especially The Nikkei… as we see this “Carryover” into most Majors… either in the Form of Bullish Sentiment, or Bullish Corrective Sentiment with IntraDay Flag/Pennant Continuation Patterns..

Overall despite the Deep IntraDay Volatility we have seen the past couple of Weeks at least… We are still “caught” in Large Macro-Ranges that we just can’t seem to Break through to either “Side of The Fence”.

Here are The Fiber Captures with Commentary above, so give them a Click for Levels of Reference.

Post-Time is 7:20 GMT.

The Fiber remains “trapped” on the Weekly View of about 250 Pips for the last Month… despite The Wicks adding plenty of Volatility.

The Hourly View sees Price Appreciation in a Corrective Fashion with the Hourly Bear Flag/Pennant Continuation Formation.

A Clip of the 1.4000 Handle Resistance sees 1.4050’s… with Failure to Complete The Flag sees Depreciation back to the 1.3920’s Support Area which will bring Bearish Sentiment back In Favor.

Have a look at The  “Currency majors Technical Perspective” Report  for more Immediate-Term Views, and as always…I will return with several more Updates as we head into The GDP and Weekly Unemployment Claims Data Points!

Greetings again, Everyone!

As expected, we continue to see Accumulation as we move closer and closer the The FOMC Decision, as well as Durable Goods, New Home Sales, and the EIA Oil Inventories.

( We will check in with these Topics in our next couple of Updates, as Price will need to “digest” and see New Areas of Reference moving into The FOMC… )

We are seeing Key Levels of Support and Resistance being respected across most Units as of this Writing, as Price is already defining Its Ranges and Areas ahead of Data-Risk Events.

Here is the GBP/JPY, for example… which is Illustrative of clear Reference Levels.

Give The Capture a Click for Levels, and Commentary above… Post-Time is 7:30 GMT.

Price holds firmly at the “Transitive Rollover” Area of  the 157.60’s with Weekly 61.8% Fib Variant Downleg Confluence.

A Breach sees the 158.80 Daily Resistance Resistance Area… while a Rejection sees a return to Dynamic Suport at the 156.30’s Level. Whiel slight Upside Appreciation is favored, Consolidation through “Muted” Action may beseen leading into Risk-Events moving forward, as Price works the defined Range here.

Several more Updates will be on the way today, in consideration of the several Risk-Events we mentioned!

In the Interim, please have a look at The 7:00 GMT “Currency Majors Technical Perspective” Report  for more Immediate-Term Detail.

I also invite you to have a look at the new Special Section I have developed with FXstreet for Fundamental Analysis is under the Education Tab of the FXstreet Home Page.

The Section is called ”Fundamental Forex Foundations”, which will be a Series of Topics focused on the Majors Data Points we see that directly “Affect” Currency Traders and those in the Foreign Exchange World.

The First Two Installments are there…  “The Federal Reserve and The FOMC Committee”…  a timely Topic we are dealing with right now, and then  “The Non-Farm Payrolls Data”  released a bit early for NFP in a couple of weeks!

Please join me soon for more Updates as we continue with our Active Day!

Greetings once again, Everyone!

With Negative Retail Sales Clipping The Queen to the Downside, and slightly “Better-Than-Expected” U.S. Jobless Claims, Leading indicators, and The Philly Fed… we still have The Dollar eclipsed by not being able to really take advantage of that Data.

This is due to a few general Factors that we have been seeing in my personal View… such as the subtle Appreciation in Oil and Gold, and especially The Continuing Claims fell and is assisting a bit of Risk Appetite returning to The Markets in general.

While Appreciation has been Seen at the Expense of The Dollar and The Yen, we may simply be defining “New” IntraDay Ranges here unless Exchange Rates can Hold and Continue above their Respective Resistance Levels moving forward.

We check in once again with The Aussie, and bring in The Euro Swissy from a long “Blog Vacation” as well.

( Our Communications Manager and Webinar Moderator, Maud Gilson, will be pleased with this Pair from “The Chocolate Wars” Posts a few months back…

Here are The Captures for Various Levels of Reference and Commentary above… so give the Captures a Click, as always.

Post-Time is 14:45 GMT.

The Aussie receives a “Snap of Support” in our Cluster-Area from yesterday’s Posts, as Price Clips the Dynamic .8000 Handle Resistance and attempts to move towards .8070’s Static Resistance in the Immediate-Term.

A Clearance of The Area with a Hold of “Transitive Rollover” Resistance-becoming-Support will complete a “Loose” Double Bottoming Formation from .7870’s Dynamic Support behaving with “Basing” Sentiment.

The EUR/CHF is riding the Direct Intervention of The Swiss National Bank as well as The Bank of International Settlements scooping up Euro Swissy after the SNB Meeting… as The SNB Itself seeks to Buy Swissy Bonds having a Direct Correlative Effect on clipping Swissy Strength against The Euro and The Dollar.

Price is prepared to Clip Static Resistance right at the 1.5120’s Area coming off of the Deep Beak with the Macro-Activity two Hours prior. Having the previous Momentum still “Built-In” to Price… Appreciation “north” to the 1.5220’s Resistance is possible… although a Visit back to previous 1.500’s Support is more ”Favorable” in the Immediate-Term. 

Of course… Please join me for more Updates as we move along, and see if these “new” Range-Areas do, in fact, develop… or if we simply see Rejection or Resumption of the overall Macro-Trends!

I hope to See Everyone Soon!

Greetings again, Everyone for a Brief Update!

The Asian-Pacific Sectors closed in Mixed Territory, as the European Bourses look to open a bit Higher today.

The overall “Stars of The Show” are still the Commodity Metals Sector and Crude Oil, which despite rather “Shallow” Corrections, continue their Ascent.

The “Sentiment of Uncertainty” we discussed in our earlier Big Blog Post is certainly still with Us… as overall Currency Pricing is seen in Accumulating and Consolidating Phases… especially in The Majors.

We are still working in rather Clear IntraDay Ranges, as Price works through Tendencies of Indecision.

While The Dollar is still largely Out of Favor on the Macro-Trend Views… we are always Mindful of Reversal taking Pace after Price Accumulation and Consolidation, so let’s have a look at The USD/JPY… and see the Current State of this particular “Battle of Risk Appetite/Risk Aversion”.

Here is the Daily and Hourly Views with Commentary above, so give The Captures a Click for Levels of Reference.

Post-Time is 7:20 GMT.

The Daily View sees a slight Correction of Yen Strength, as Price Corrects back to Static Support at the 97. 70’s Area. Continuation to the 98.80’s Area is certainly In reach here, as a Clip of the Double-Top Formation at this Levels sees the 99.70’s Resistance Area In Sight.

The Hourly View gives us more Insight into the Accumulation and “Rest” that we are currently seeing in most Units… as Price maintains a Well-Defined Range.

Further Immediate-Term Correction sees the 97.20’s as the Pullback is “In Concert” with the overall Trend, as more Bullish Builds may be attracted here to push Price to our 98.80’s Resistance Areas from The Daily View.

Please have a look for more Immediate-Term Detail on The Majors with the  “Currency Majors Technical Perspective” Report , and of course… I will be with you for more Updates as we move along… and especially as we await the Weekly Jobless Claims Numbers out of the U.S., which may give a bit more Insight into the Dis-Connect with last Week’s NFP Data.

Please Join Me Soon!

Greetings again, Everyone!

While overall The Fiber and The Cable are in Daily Consolidation in general… The IntraDay Perspective really illustrates the extreme “Out-Of -Favor” Sentiment of The Dollar. This is perhaps, seen most clearly on the Aussie Dollar.

Our continual Thoughts on possible Corrections for the Integrity of these trends are still Valid Concerns as we move forward… as the excessive Energy and Momentum used to build these Trends will need to be Expelled. While “Shallow” Corrections are to be expected… in this Environment, it usually takes a “Catalyst” of some Fashion to really cause significant and Deep Corrections with such Uni-Directional Trends.

The U.K. Production and U.S. Trade Balance Data Points are significant enough to be these Catalysts, and we will simply have to observe to see the relative Strength or Weakness of the Data moving forward.

Here are the Hourly Views of both The Aussie and The Queen with Commentary above, so give them a Click for various Levels of Reference.

Post-Time is 7:15 GMT.

The Aussie looks to a New “Transitive Rollover” of Resistance-Becoming-Support at the Coveted .8000 Figure, as Price propels from out various previously-Ellipsed Areas in search of a potential “Re-Test” and Formation of an IntraDay Double-Top at the .8120’s Level.

Any Correction in the Immediate-Term at this Point may be held by the Dynamic Support of the 50% Weekly Fib Variant as Price may look to Fall back into the L.R. Channel in this Case.

The Queen still shows no real Signals of Resting or Exhaustion at this Point… as Price Clear the Upper-Trendline of our Long-Term Daily Channel beginning in March.

Price now sees Dynamic Support Confluence with this Channel Trendline and the Weekly 61.8% September 2008 Downleg Fib Variant.

Continuation looks to the 1.6480’s now in the Near-Term, as any Corrective Sentiment sees a return to the 1.6200’s Levels on Initial Impulse.

For more intimate Detail on The Majors, please feel free to have a look at the “Currency Majors Technical Perspective” Report, and as always,… plenty more Updates will be coming your Way as we deal with a Data-Heavy Trading Day!

Greetings once again, Everyone!

The Non-Farm Payroll Data Points certainly arrive significantly Better-Than-Expected, as the Actual -345K Loss displaces the -521K Consensus.

The Markets initially did without Activity, as a “Delayed” reaction is underway with Dollar and Yen Strength as of this Writing.

While The Media is impresses with the Headline Numbers…The overall Markets and Indices are not…as Risk Aversion works back in with Consideration to The Negativity of overall Unemployment rising to 9.4%… the highest since 1983.

In my personal View… Gold is a Fine Illustrator of overall Price Behavior, and here is The Hourly Capture with Various Levels of Consideration.

Post-Time is 15:00 GMT.

The Fiber also looks to Significant Dollar Strength as our Previous Ellipsed Highlighted Areas provide excellent “Anchors” for Price from a couple Day ago…as we still are “Framed” by our Near-Term Range of 1.400 to 1.4250.

As we always say… Market Memory is always In Existence… and Price always remembers where It has Visited as It ventures out on Vacation!… hee hee hee…           

The Dollar Yen looks to form a New “Transitive Rollover” here from Resistance-to-Support as Price may attempt to Retrace The Wick form Resettlement.

Our IntraDay L.R. Channel remains Valid in the Interim, as Price may simply Hold at this Point moving into The Weekend.

While Significant Volatile Activity has not been Seen overall… The Key in my personal View is how all of our Various “Anchors” of Support and Resistance and Dynamic Levels have “Framed” Price as It moves back into Areas It has seen before…    

Let’s keep a Watchful Eye moving forward, as The Equity Markets and Commodity Correlations may give a little more Impetus as the Day progresses… So more Updates on the Way, as always!

Greetings again, Everyone!

We are about 5 Minutes ahead of the NYSE Open… where U.S. Equity Futures are relatively “Flat” and bidding lower by about 55/50 as of this Writing.

The ADP Private Payroll Processing Numbers came in largely “In Line” with Consensus, as we await the U.S. Factory Orders, ISM Non-Manufacturing Data, and Testimony from ”Big Ben” as well… surely the Highlight of Everyone’s Day !!!

Let’s have a look at The Fiber… since we have not checked in here on the Blog with EUR/USD in a few days!

Here are both Captures, so give them a Click, as always, for various Levels and points of Reference.

Pst-Time is 13:25 GMT.

On The Weekly, Price still hovers and finds Dynamic Support at the 50% Weekly Fib Variant of the July 2008 High following the Massive Downleg, and our Macro-Symmetrical Triangle Negated months ago… ( I drew this Triangle and Fib back in February… what can I say… Me and my Long-Term Views… hee heee…        ;-)

The Hourly IntraDay View for my IntraDay Friends sees the Dynamic Cluster Support at that same 50% Fib Variant coupled with 1.4140’s Static Support, which if we Hold and Maintain here… We will develop a “New” Transitive Rollover” with Resistance becoming Support as Price looks to “potentially” Deeper Corrections to the 1.4090’s Lows of the Day.

We may see this then as a “Shallow” Correction, as we see “Across The Board” Sentiment still emphasizing Continual Dollar Weakness moving forward… at least from an IntraDay Perspective for now.

 Of course, please join me again for more Updates as we monitor the already-beginning “Slowing” of Momentum moving into the BoE and ECB tomorrow, and especially NFP Friday with Institutional Re-Positioning highly likely to occur as we move ahead!