Greetings again, Everyone!

The positive importance of The U.K. Retails Sales Data is showing “slight” sign of Stabilization as Actuals of a 1.3% rise clipped the 0.3% Consensus with ease. While this translated into a nice Break of The Queen and Her Major Cross into Appreciation… we would really need to see stronger and stronger Purchasing “Evidence” coming out of the U.K. Consumer over a several-month period to really see Retail Sales as a Bellwether of positive Sentiment and Growth.

Let’s check in briefly with The GBP/USD and The GBP/JPY, and here are our same Hourly Views.

Give The Captures a Click, and Post-Time is 10:45 GMT.

 The Magenta Dynamic Support Line did, in fact, Hold for us and become a “new” Transitive Rollover Area of Static Support. Price now clips the 1.6510 Resistance Area, and if we do not see an Impulsive Correction back to the 1.6440’s Levels, then the 1.6600 Handle is on the way via 1.6555 Dynamic Resistance.

A Correction at 1.6600 then has a rather High-Probability of occurring, as Static Resistance at this Level is solid.

The Pound Yen show similar Price Action that is even more “extended” on the IntraDay View as we see a “potential” Double-Top Behavior if Price can fall on the Yen Strength, and bring the Corrective Sentiment further along. Solid Confluence is seen here with the Transitive Rollover Support Area and the Weekly 38.2% Fib Variant that we have held for months now.

The Daily Lower Channel Line may hinder this, and act as Dynamic Support… in the same fashion it acted as Dynamic Resistance over the last two Days of Hourly Candles.

While both of these Units are Overbought on the Hourly Views… taking a “Clue” from the U.S. Jobless Claims and Existing Home Sales Data will be relevant as we see to what “Degree” The Dollar is affected in a couple of hours!

Be sure and check back in for more Updates to follow, so I hope to see All of you soon!

Greetings again, Everyone at The NYSE Close!

Well… I think for the first time in the history of The Blog… I really do not have a lot to say!

OK OK… All of you can stop cheering now!… hee hee hee…   

Seriously… the continual Summer “Directionless” Sentiment out on the Larger Time-Cycles are certainly a sign of the Lower Summer Volumes… despite the increased Volatility and “Angular Noisy” Market Behavior.

Of course from The Hill with Bernanke, all The “Fed-Speak” was certainly out on the table for all of us to hear… as Economic Indicators and Data Point Releases get “Lost in Translation” for the Layman listener or viewer on T.V.

Housing and Consumer Sentiment are the “Name of The Game” here, as always, in any type of Economic stabilization and Recovery… so on it goes!

As we move into The Asian-Pacific Sectors, let’s take a look at The USD/JPY Unit as The Nikkei, The Aussie Markets, The Kospi, Hang Seng, etc… get moving along with their Morning.

The Unit could be the Classic Symbol of a Directionless Market!

Post-Time is 23:00 GMT.

On the Daily View, we are locked in a tight Range of about 91.70’s Static Support to the Transitive Rollover Area of Resistance at the 94.80’s. Our Long-Term Downtrend Channel from April is still very valid in “Anchoring” Price and current Momentum is leaning to more Depreciation of the Unit with Yen Strength.

The Hourly provides a little more Clarity as a Horizontal Range is in place. Price looks to Breach the Downside Dynamic Support Line first with a move towards the 93.20’s Support Area in the Immediate-Term… as Risk Aversion gradually comes back to The Markets.

We will see how Price progresses, so please join me for the “Big Blog” Post for Thursday in a few hours!

Greetings Everyone, and Welcome to Wednesday!

We prepare for the Bank of England Minutes to be released, as we look for any additional signs of increased Stimulus since they failed to do their “Allocated Increase” of 25B Sterling in additional Asset Purchases.

The Markets will be especially watchful for any Rhetoric or Indications of a “Timeline” of if and when this will occur…as well as the “possibility” of additional Policy since the BoE does have their “Eye on the Inflationary Ball” with its very sensitive Economy of late.

In addition, we will certainly watch the EIA Crude Inventory Builds Data Release as well… since Crude has been an interesting “Leading Indicator” of sorts… at lease concerning Sentiment in the last few weeks.

Let’s have a look at The Queen again… as well as GBP/JPY… where we already notice a literal “Grinding Halt” to Price Action on both Units ahead of The Minutes.

Here is The Hourly… where our Levels are basically unchanged from our earlier Update… as Price looks to hold the 1.6380’s Transitive Rollover Support Area in the Immediate-Term.

Give The Capture a Click, and Post-Time is 2:45 GMT.

Pound Yen is seeing very similar Price action as well… as Price looks to hold the 153.20’s/00 Handle in the Immediate-Term. We are already seeing continuation of the Yen Strength, as the Unit is off about 66 Pips or so for the Day already in “relative” terms.

A Breach of the Area will see the 152.30’s with ease for another “Re-Test” to form an Hourly Double-Bottom in the Near-Term if the Area holds.

We will surely check in with these Developments as we progress, so please stop back by frequently for more Updates… as I always look forward to all of your Visits!

Greetings, Everyone and Welcome to Monday!

We begin the Week, as we mentioned yesterday, with that continual “Push and Pull” on an IntraDay basis of Risk Aversion and Risk Appetite that we have been working through for months now.

Crude and Gold are up and slightly overextended on The Hourly Views, and the Dow and S& P are up a bit as of Writing-Time as well.

Let’s have a look at a couple of Yen Crosses that are leaning towards the “Risk Appetite” side for now on the Hourly Views, although Price is retracing…as is Gold and Crude as well.

Here are the Captures, so give them a Click as always.

Post-Time is 15:20 GMT.

The Pound Yen looks to build a new Upleg, and actually most of The Yen Crosses do as well. We consolidate at the Confluence Area of 38.2%  of the Weekly Downleg as Price is still adhering to and working that massive Weekly Bear Flag Formation…. as the larger Daily Channel Lower Trendline is providing Dynamic Support moving forward.

Aussie Yen is very similar in Price Action and Sentiment… as it looks towards the 77.00 Handle for a bit of Accumulation that will lead to Consolidation.

A slight Bounce will return Price to the 75.00 Handle where if we consider the recent Upleg… we may see some Bullish Builds coming into Play as Price moves along.

The excessive heat here has been giving me some connection issues, but hopefully all is fine now!… and as long as this remains so, I will have more Updates on the way for all of you!

Greetings, Everyone and Happy Sunday!

Writing-Time is 8:30 a.m. for me, so it is 15:30 GMT.

We are back at it again with another rather volatile and “noisy” week behind us… as our Good Friends, Risk Aversion and Risk Appetite, move The Dollar and Yen around with Activity.

We can always have some “Probabilities” in terms of Market Direction, a change in Sentiment, or even Reversals when we see “Classic” Textbook Chart Formations and Patterns coming into View.

We are seeing Hourly Double Tops and Bottoms, clear Consolidating Ranges, and “Transitive Rollovers” of Support and Resistance in many Units, so we have plenty of “Anchored Structure” to open in Sydney later today.

Perhaps we all are tiring of this, and could simply use some larger Macro-Direction moving forward… as we are still in those large Ranges we spoke of a couple Weeks ago out on the Monthly Views.

Again…it is Summer so we have different types of Order Flows and Sentiment moving in the Markets during the “traditional” Summer Periods.

Here is The EUR/JPY on a Daily and Hourly View, where we see Confluence in Price Action and Sentiment.

We lean towards Dollar and Yen Strength with Risk Aversion in the Immediate-Term, as we see a “loose” Head-and-Shoulders Formation on the Daily… that is “translating” to a Double-Top that is holding on The Hourly.

Here are both Views, so give them a Click, and we will surely check in with them after The Open later today.

A Symmetrical “Run” here sets up the Formation nicely, as the 133.40’s is a significant Area that will be negated and not complete the Transitive Rollover moving back to Static Support at the 131.30’s… or we will Breach Price and see the 134.50’s/135.00 Handle in The Near-Term.

Please stop back by after The Sydney Open as we get moving with our New Week, and I look forward to seeing everyone then!

Greetings once again, Everyone!

We move to The NYSE Open, where Positive Sentiment begins the Day with The Dow and S&P both in Positive Territory. Equities and Indices have been largely Well-Bid throughout the Global Exchanges overnight and into today’s Session Openings.

Gold and Crude Oil are also a Major Component here as The Dollar and Yen retreat into the Shadows concerning most Units “Across The Board”.

Despite lackluster Earnings overall during “Earnings Season”, Goldman Sachs keeps the optimism alive, as well as Alcoa from last week, to give the Equities and Indices some Impetus to see Corrective Behavior that has and will “Carry Over” into The Currency Markets.

The Producer Price Index and Retail Sales come in “Better-Than-Expected” overall, but the “Weight” of Core Retail Sales will always be the “Factor” here, and without Autos and Energy, we really have nothing to “Hang our Hat On” here… hence the “Noisy Whipsaw” Price Action we have seen within the last Hour across The Markets.

(Please feel free to look at my latest Installments for the “Fundamental Forex Foundations” Section of the FXstreet Education Area… PPI, Retail Sales, Business Inventories, and CPI set for Release tomorrow.)

We check in with USD/JPY since these two will often run in Correlation in both Risk Averse and Risk Appetite Climates, except when they are battling with each other!

The Dollar Yen is always a unique Unit, since we can really observe the “Push and Pull” of Price Action since both Units have such similar Characteristics and Qualities. 

Here are The Daily and Hourly Views, so give them a Click for various Levels, and Post-Time is 13:50 GMT.

The Daily keep Price “anchored” with its Long-Term Downtrend Channel, and sees the Lower Channel Line providing clear Dynamic Support moving forward. The Key Area in my personal View, will be if Price can reach the Weekly Fib Variant Confluence of the 94.25/31 Area of Dynamic Resistance, and Beach through to the 97.00 Handle in the Mid-Term.

The Hourly shows our Daily Mid-Term 97.00 Thoughts to be rather “Distant”, as Probabilities rest with Price looking for a “Re-Test” of the 91.75 Channel and Support Lows in this case. If the Area is reached, Price may simply work in this “Tight range” of 91.75 to the 93.50’s Static Resistance Area.

As always, more IntraDay Updates for you as we move along, as we need to check in with The Queen and other Units as we move along.

Please join me soon, and I look forward to it!

Greetings again, Everyone!

We close The NYSE in Positive Territory with The Dow and The S&P… as The Nikkei Futures look Well-Bid to open and continue on with the Global Equity Momentum.

Crude levels out at the massive $60.00 Handle, while Gold pulls back off of $921.65 Dynamic Resistance.

The Euro looks to take our earlier Flag Opportunity and finally Clip the 1.4000 Handle to form that “Transitive Rollover” area we were attempting to reach earlier in The Day.

We can now use a L.R. Channel as we work the Counter-Trend here on the Hourly Time -Cycle.

Price Appreciation will continue with Bullish Sentiment on the whole, as long as The Equities Correlation remains Intact.

The Next Focus is on the 1.4040’s Resistance, followed by 1.4072 where if Met and Held… an Hourly Double-Top will be In Place if Price is not breached through to the 1.4100 Handle.

Here is The Hourly Capture so give it a Click for Levels, as always.

Post-Time is 23:40 GMT.

Please join me again for more Updates as we move along, and check in on how The Currency Units are progressing in The Asian-Pacific Sectors!

UPDATE @ 1:30 GMT!

The Euro begins to retrace a bit , but still holds the integrity of The Channel. The 1.3940’s would be the next Area of Focus of Price Behavior continues.

We will check in with another Blog Update after The “Currency Majors Technical Perspective” Report at 6:30 GMT.

The two Major additions to The “Fundamental Forex Foundations” Section are now published… just in time for CPI and PPI in the U.S!… as well as the U.K., since many of these same Principles will apply to other Producer and Consumers in other Economies.

Producer Price Index

Consumer Price Index  (for Wednesday)

Retail Sales and Business Inventories will be published and active ASAP, so I will post those Links as well!

Greetings again, Everyone!

We look to an IntraDay “Reversal” Day of Sentiment, as all of “The Basing” around the Units gives strong Momentum and Appreciation with slight Risk Appetite for the Day.

Crude Oil still languishes a bit, although Price did manage to pull out of the $58.00/50’s Consolidation Area… although we are under the $60.00 Handle again. 

Gold pulls a Break out of the Accumulation Range between $907.80’s Static Support and $914.00 Dynamic Resistance, with an $8.00 Appreciation as of Post-Time.

The Pound Yen pulls a clear “V” Reversal on The Hourly, as the entire 150.60’s Downleg is literally negated, as Price works through Dynamic Support Confluence at the 150.00 Handle with the July ‘08 50% Weekly Fib Variant.

Here is The Hourly View, so give it a Click for Levels, as we retain our Bear Flag Example for Reference.

Post-Time is 18:45 GMT.

We can say that our Hourly Bear Flag is still Valid and Intact, as Price breaks The Apex to the Downside… and simply Consolidates without reaching the Highs of The Apex at the 151.30’s Dynamic Resistance Levels.

This keeps Bias clearly to The Downside, with Bearish Views simply looking to sell into this Rally from the IntraDay View.

Stronger Bearish Views will look to maintain Patience here as we work through The Consolidation, and any Break of the 146.70’s will entice Selling Sentiment.

The Dow Correlation with the weaker Yen and Dollar is currently In Place, as The Dow is well-bid about 148 Points in Positive Territory.

Watch the Macro-Correlation moving into The Close, and I will be back with you then for another Update, as always!

Please join me then!

Greetings again, Everyone!

As we move along, our Thoughts on a Range-Bound but Volatile Day are proving correct… as usually happens with a lack of Fundamental Data Point Releases to “Anchor” Price and/or provided a “Catalyst” for Price to move with Significance out of IntraDay Range Areas.

The Swissy gives us a “portion” of our Flag Completion from last Week in terms of Clipping The Apex… although like The Euro earlier… Price does “overextend” Itself to literally Negate the entire Hourly Bear Flag.

As we mentioned, this will happen with Frequency on the IntraDay Views… but we can still obtain useful information concerning Directionality as price either Violates or Respects the Flag Itself.

Here is the Hourly View with Commentary, so give it a Click as always.

Post-Time is 14:00 GMT.

The thrust of Momentum out of The Flag could not sustain enough Appreciation to form a New “Transitive Rollover” Area at the 1.0900/15 Area with new Dynamic Support, so Price simply pulls back towards the Dynamic Area of the weekly 23.6% Fib Variant finding Dynamic Resistance as of this Writing.

Clear Fractal Behavior os obviously In-Play here, as Price grinds its way down, but Negates Contact with Daily Static Longer-Term Support at the 1.0800 Handle, especially as we work through the “Building of Energy” in the larger Symmetrical Triangle Formation… similar to what we are working with on The Euro.

Neutral to Bearish Sentiment remains unless Price can Clear with Conviction the 1.0889 Static Resistance Area… with even stronger Bullish Sentiment towards to the 1.0900 Handle in The Near-Term.

We will check in on The Unit as we move along, and I will have more of these shorter “Single-Currency Unit” Updates for you as we move along!

Similar to some changes I am making with the  6:30/7:00 GMT Currency Majors Technical Report at the Asian/Frankfurt Rollover…  I am hoping the subtle changes will prove beneficial for you!

Greetings Everyone, and Happy Sunday!

Post-Time  is 10:15 a.m. my time, so it is 17:15 GMT.

With a somewhat-related View to yesterday’s Ideas about truly “looking and seeing” The Markets, I was struck by a recent conversation I had with a friend concerning The Dollar and all of the recent Implications and Rhetoric surrounding it.

The Topic also came to mind, as I am working on several new Installments of the “Fundamental Forex Foundations” Reports for The Education Section of FXStreet for all of you, so I thought we would address this whole Dollar Debate.

Unfortunately, the conversation with my friend was IN ACTUAL AGREEMENT… which was deeply surprising and disturbing! All of you know this guy is literally the Anti-Thesis of me, and we love to banter back and forth.

Many of you may remember a few references I have made concerning him… one of my early Equities Mentors who I enjoy wagering lunches and such with on various issues.

Here is an “Old School” Professional if I ever saw one… I say Black and he says White. He feels trading OTC Currencies is “The Wild West” of the Trading Industry and will have nothing of it. He is proud to be a “conventional” Stock Trader who enjoys a lot of the “Buy and Hold” philosophies. He also feels The Dollar is not going anywhere… despite what China wants, thinks, or jawbones… and anyone else for that matter!

(In his defense, he is also one of the finest and most consistent Traders I have ever known, and the Foundations I was exposed to and learned from him in the late 1990’s are a direct reflection of his Work and Diligence.)

So we were having this conversation about the Chinese Rhetoric at the recent G8 Summit and before, we found ourselves really seeing “Both Sides of The Fence”, as I like to say here on The Blog.

In Its Simplest Form… as we can have this discussion for weeks, the concern about moving away from The Dollar as The Global Reserve Currency sees BRIC Powers such as China looking to Due Diligence of their Treasury Reserves in the U.S. Economy.

China is, at least, expanding Its Horizons into thinking of “Other” Currency possibilities… such as The Euro… and not just The Dollar here. With Obama and Big Ben throwing money out of The Helicopter, and potentially more to come with talk of a 2nd Stimulus Plan, the continual Treasury Buy-Back Program that is being done is surely “weighing” on all of us, not to mention on the minds of China. This “Pressure” places The Dollar in “true” Decline against other World Currencies in general, simply because we do not see the “Depth and Level” of QE that the U.S. has been engaging in.

The Currency simply becomes more “Plastic”, for lack of a better term.

The $130 Trillion in U.S. Debt is dominating any “Real” GDP at around $12 Trillion, so this “Disconnect” just by itself  keeps Weight on The Dollar’s inherent Value moving forward.

The Chinese Population of about 1.3 Billion people surely is a formidable potential World Buying-Power with a remarkable Savings Rate of about 28% to 30%, ensuring Liquidity for future purchases on the Whole.

***

Now… on “The Other Side of The Fence”, are we really deeply concerned about China’s concerns and rhetoric moving ahead?

Are they truly emergent as a Power of Economic and Production Stability?

It depends who you ask.

 We can, perhaps, rule out some “Validity” here since we know The Yuan is not “free-floating”, so it is like comparing Apples to Oranges. The continual Manipulation of The Yuan is not helping the Case as well.

The massive Treasury Reserves held by China would have to go somewhere, and “logic” would dictate the Funds will stay within Its own Currency as Macro-Development improves. In the meantime, Is there another Entity that handle the “potential” Treasury Inflows that China would be replacing as “sound” Asset Diversification?

 As their own Economy grows, wouldn’t China then need more and more Renminbi of it’s own and keeps It’s own “Treasury Funding” and other Asset Classes to Itself?

Of course, there are many Aspects to this “Argument” on both sides… as we are dealing with a still-developing albeit massive Economy.

I certainly do not have the answer… but there exists enough “plausible” Criteria on “Both Side of the Fence”

that one can exhaust him or herself for a while.

So what did my Friend and I do in this case of “literal” Agreement?…

We split the Check, of course.

Please join me later for Monday’s “Big Blog” Update, as we prepare for another interesting and volatile Week!

*** Image/Cartoon courtesy of BlueWire Studio.