Greetings again, Everyone at The NYSE Close!

Sectors, The Indices, and overall Market “Sentiment” are all in positive Territory primarily on the back of continued Positive Earnings across many Sectors.

While we arrive at a 7-Day Positive Rally… I will bring up a Term all of you have heard me mention several times in the past few months.

“Bear Market Rally”.

Are we really seeing a semblance of overall Health here?… or are we simply seeing some Over-Extension and Over-Bought Conditions?

I would lean towards the Latter in my personal View. 

We certainly can see the S&P approaching the 960 Area, but in the “Case of The Correction”, as I like to say… the Extended Price Action truly may see a Immediate-Term Top there prime for a Reversal… hence a nice Daily Double-Top will then be in Formation.

This will obviously translate over to The Dow as well… despite the “Positive Earnings’ Sentiment.

Here is a quick View of The Daily S&P 500 to check on these Levels once again.

Post-Time is 20:50 GMT.

In looking at my “Real-Time” Currency Correlations, we can see some Disparity today with the poor Queen being the significant Driver of Depreciation… in Her Major and in The Crosses.

 While as of this exact moment, Price is beginning to stage Bullish Build from the previous “Re-Test” of the 1.6380’s Transitive Rollover Support… Price is still off about 90 Pips, and about 160 with the GBP/JPY Cross.

In contrast, EUR/GBP is holding on to its 40+ Pip Gain for the Day.

Here is the Hourly View of The Queen, so give it a Click for various Levels.

Price needs to Clip and regain the 1.6500 Handle here for the development of a “new” Transitive Rollover Area, and our IntraDay Trendline here will provide some Dynamic Support moving forward.

If we see Failure, and Price breaches the actual Lower Channel Daily Trendline here as well… then the 1.6200 Handle and beyond is certainly In View.

Now we move onto the Asian Sectors soon, where the Positive Sentiment will usually be picked up by the Nikkei and The Aussie Exchanges for our initial Indication of Continuation.

Please join me soon for tomorrow’s “Big Blog” Post as we also check in with how The Asian Sectors are progressing!

I hope to see you then!

Greetings again, Everyone!

We look to an IntraDay “Reversal” Day of Sentiment, as all of “The Basing” around the Units gives strong Momentum and Appreciation with slight Risk Appetite for the Day.

Crude Oil still languishes a bit, although Price did manage to pull out of the $58.00/50’s Consolidation Area… although we are under the $60.00 Handle again. 

Gold pulls a Break out of the Accumulation Range between $907.80’s Static Support and $914.00 Dynamic Resistance, with an $8.00 Appreciation as of Post-Time.

The Pound Yen pulls a clear “V” Reversal on The Hourly, as the entire 150.60’s Downleg is literally negated, as Price works through Dynamic Support Confluence at the 150.00 Handle with the July ‘08 50% Weekly Fib Variant.

Here is The Hourly View, so give it a Click for Levels, as we retain our Bear Flag Example for Reference.

Post-Time is 18:45 GMT.

We can say that our Hourly Bear Flag is still Valid and Intact, as Price breaks The Apex to the Downside… and simply Consolidates without reaching the Highs of The Apex at the 151.30’s Dynamic Resistance Levels.

This keeps Bias clearly to The Downside, with Bearish Views simply looking to sell into this Rally from the IntraDay View.

Stronger Bearish Views will look to maintain Patience here as we work through The Consolidation, and any Break of the 146.70’s will entice Selling Sentiment.

The Dow Correlation with the weaker Yen and Dollar is currently In Place, as The Dow is well-bid about 148 Points in Positive Territory.

Watch the Macro-Correlation moving into The Close, and I will be back with you then for another Update, as always!

Please join me then!

Greetings again, Everyone!

We arrive at the end of an eventful Week, where our Macro-Consolidations and Accumulating Price Behaviors are Setting The stage for additional Volatility moving into next week.

Both The Dow and S&P 500 close at Mid-Range coming off of in my personal View… “Loose” Daily Head-and-Shoulders Formations.

The March through June Fib Variant Uplegs provide Classic “Textbook”  Behavior here, as The Fib Variant/Confluence Supports @ the 38.2% Areas will provide the next Downside Dynamic Support on both Indices.

Here are The Daily Views for their various Levels, so give them a Click as always.

Post-Time is a few Hours after The NYSE Close at 00:15 GMT.

Our Risk-Averse Macro-Correlations look to be In Favor once again here if these two Areas are Seen at The Open Monday, and our Correlations remain Intact in The Immediate-Term.

This simply translates into Three Principles:

Yen Strength

Dollar Strength

Weak Gold and Crude Oil

OK… So shoot me!… there were Four Things!… hee hee…       

Please join me tomorrow for more continuing ”Weekend Thoughts”, as always, and I look forward to seeing Everyone!

Greetings once again, Everyone!

In The Near-Term, we are seeing “Digestion” in most Currency Units of today’s Macro-Data as The BoE Holds their Overnight Rate and also keeps their Q.E. Program unchanged for now, U.S. Jobless Claims beat Consensus but Continuing Jobless Claims kills that Sentiment, and our “Back-and-Forth” Friend, China, returns to the World with more Rhetoric on Diversification of the World’s Global Currency situation.

The Dollar and The Yen retreat a bit and in my personal View… would have taken place from a Technical  Perspective irregardless of any Macro-Data or Rhetoric in the first place.Currently, we are once-again seeing IntraDay Reversals as U.S. Equities and Indices flatten a bit and lose Momentum… and The Yen returns to pick up a little Strength.

Confused?… Do not be.

One word explains it all!… Consolidation.

As we discussed last night and in many instances in the past, when we see such intense Price Volatility and Momentum, we realize Price cannot operate in this fashion indefinitely.

Just like you and I climbing the mountains, Price needs to “Rest and Reprieve”… have a snack… grab a drink… whatever!

This is still fairly evident across most Units with Bear Flag Patterns on various Time-Cycles…. and now that we have spent some time in the actual “Flag Forming Progress”, we can see these types of Behaviors with more clarity.

Let’s bring in The Queen and Her Cousin, Pound Yen again… since it was BoE Day today… 

Give The Captures a Click, as always, with Commentary above, and Post-Time is right about 15:15 GMT.

The Bear Flag Formation is clearly evident on the Hourly now, as we see the BoE and QE Data providing Impetus for some Pound Strength.  

The Daily Uptrend that we initiated from March is still Valid and “anchoring” Price, as we push through Initial 1.6200 Static Resistance forming a “Transitive Rollover” Area.

Now, “Full Completion” of The Flag will see the 1.5250’s obviously in The Mid-Term… so The Key here will be to see if Price can Clip back through The Flag, and at least Breach the Dynamic Confluence Fib Variant Support @ 1.6085. The Flag will be on Its way again as we then Breach the Daily Lower Uptrend Channel Line.

In this Case for The Pound Yen, we have a more “Subjective” Bear Flag here that is foreshortened, albeit with the same “Function and Behavior”. Full Completion here sees  The 137 Area… surely possible… but Continued Yen Strength in this Sense will assuredly provoke a Response from The Bank of Japan concerning Intervention.

In any event… The Breaching of The Daily Lower Uptrend Channel Line ( also acting as our Flag Top here)  calls for a “Re-Test” of the 146.70’s Lows yesterday in The Immediate-Term…. where then the 146.00 Handle is surely In View.

So let us see how these Patterns fair, and also if we see any sort of Recovery in Sight towards’ Today’s Closes here on these Units… so more Updates to come!

Of course… there is One Caveat moving forward…

As long as Crude Oil continues to get slammed, and adding fuel to The Risk-Aversion Fire… our Two Friends, The Dollar and Yen are not going on Holiday anytime soon.

Greetings again, Everyone!

I could not help myself with the humorous Title here… surely The Risk Averse Monster of The Yen we spoke of in last night’s Post is still In Play as we come to The NYSE Close where The Dow and S&P close in last-minute Positive Territory.

We have many Factors to account for here, as the 6-Week Highs of Yen Movement is involved in the overall Fear dropping Supply coupled with dropping Demand in The EIA/API Oil Inventory Data Points today…. not to mention of course…The MASSIVE Concerns about Oversight and Regulations being discussed on Speculation Caps on Finite Commodity Products.

In addition, the  Deep Global Uncertainty is still with us as questions of a 2nd Stimulus Package are on The table… the still-with-us Nigerian Concerns for Crude Oil “Regularity”, FX Concerns not on the Table again at the G-8, and perhaps most importantly in The Near-Term… The Equity Market Correlations with Currencies firmly Intact.

Let’s take a look at Crude and Gold to gives us some Insight of Today’s Risk-Averse Activity, so here are The Hourly Views for Various Levels.

These Units technically are pretty Self-Explanatory… as even slight Corrections are needed in my personal View.

Post-Time is right at The Closing Bell @ 20:00 GMT.

Crude hovers around the $60 Handle as our L.R. Channel is still “anchoring” Price… despite the  massive Depletion here of even Neutral Sentiment.

Price needs to attempt to maintain the Level, otherwise a Breach to The $55 Static Support may certainly be In Sight.

The “Uni-Directionality” of Price tells us two things here: Bearish Sentiment is deeply strong ( obviously), but most importantly dependent on your personal Trading Perspective… This type of “Directionality” will not sustain Itself indefinitely…so in these case, we will often see the same “Building of Energy” set up just as strong of a Reversal in Price.

Gold in in a similar situation where it is exacerbating the Depreciation in Crude while contributing to Dollar and Yen Strength, of course, as we revert back to a “Safe-Haven” sentiment here.

A Classic Bear Flag/Pennant of Accumulation is evident here… and a Full Completion “sees” The $880’s which is certainly probable considering Dollar Strength. A Breach of The Flag sees  regaining Dynamic Support @ the $912 Area with Fib Variant Confluence from the April Daily Upleg, and of course… The “Congestion” Zone of Consolidation  may continue to attract Price.

Now… I have one of my usual “Rhetorical” Questions for you…

Was The Yen Surge today a big shock and suprise?… Crude Oil?… Gold?… The Queen and The Euro?…

We will discuss  these Events further for tomorrow’s “Big Blog” Post in a few hours, as well as so please join me then!

Greetings again, Everyone!

As we move about 30 Minutes from The NYSE Close… our first Post at 7 GMT this morning ( Midnight for “Crazy CVJ”… as everyone usually calls me … ) comes to Fruition as we have worked throughout our Day.

The Dow and S&P 500 Correlations keep The Yen Itself extremely Well-Bid… as The Yen Crosses take a Dive along with Dollar Yen.

Of course also as we have discussed, The Energy Sectors are full of Uncertainty as Crude Clips about $9.00 in the last Week alone… down about 12% .

In my personal View,  The 875 Area or so on The S&P is a crucial Area here… as The Equities and Indices as a Whole pulled a few “Bear Market Rallies” that simply may have been Over-Extended.

To clarify my Thoughts here… We simply still have this Wide “Dis-Connect” between our actual Economic Health and Macro-Market Activity.

 Of course… I am in NO WAY implying The Markets are Wrong… as in my personal Philosophy…They Never Are.

It Is what It Is… and it is “Our Job” to Act accordingly with Prudence.

There is certainly a Difference between Mis-Pricing… and Markets actually being Wrong…

“OK…Off The Soap Box, CVJ! We told you yesterday!… Enough of your  Philosophical Babbling!”… the CVJ Fan Club Guys say.

( Is it time already to send them off for another Vacation???… hee heee…  

Here we bring up our Euro Yen and Pound Yen Crosses from earlier, and Price Action on both is rather Self-Explanatory.

Both Units Clip our Dynamic Trendlines to the Downside as Price reaches for more Stable Supportive Handles.

Give them a Click, and Post-Time is 19:50 GMT.

Now… as we move into The Asian-Pacific Sectors, we “should’ see “Bleedout” from the NY Session, and have The Asian Bourses bidding and opening lower… but of course, we shall see… as we prefer not to “Predict Anything”, but use Probabilities in our Favor.

We will take a good look at The Dollar Yen for tomorrow’s “Big Blog Post”, so please join me in a few hours as we move into Asian Work!

I will see Everyone soon!

Greetings, Everyone and Welcome to Tuesday!

We have seen what is in my personal View… a Classic Battle for the Supremacy of Indecision!

While The Dollar and Yen worked through Risk Aversion to open the New Week… the Climate quickly turned with The Euro, The Queen, and even The Pacifics ( ahead of The RBA Decision…which in my View will Hold, as will The BoE… ) gaining a portion of those gains back as The Dow and S&P 500 attempted at least some Covering to Close the Day.

Gold and Crude are still holding their Depreciation Status… so some “slight De-Coupling” of The IntraDay Perspective is a bit evident here.

“CVJ!… You are Speaking-in- Tongues again!… Are we Bullish?… Bearish?… Gold?…Crude?… Make up your Mind, Man! We have had it with your Mercurial Ways!… our long-lost Friends, The CVJ Fan Club Guys say.

( Hee hee hee… and all of you Dear Readers thought these Geniuses were on permanent Vacation!… well…. we have to have a laugh now and then, right??? )

In all seriousness here… the Indecisive nature of The Markets as a whole are indicative of the Carry-Over from the U.S. Holiday, the expectations of The G-8 and the surprising “Pro-Active” Nature of China… as well as the rest of The Asian-Pacific Sectors ( i.e. Taiwan).

Will China come through with the “Jawboning Feel” of “The Super-Sovereign” Currency to replace The Dollar Reserve?

If you ask me… the continual “flip-flopping” there reminds me of those other historical Jawboning Masters… The Bank of Japan!  

Let’s roll out The Aussie again ahead of The RBA’s Rate Decision, and we will check in as well for the 7-8GMT Blog Update as well.

Here is The Daily and Hourly View with Commentary above, so give The Capture a Click for Levels…. and Post-Time is 23:00 GMT.

The Aussie looks to strengthen on the wide-Consensus that The RBA will Hold yet again with their “Wait and See” Policy.

Even so, we still see the Range that we looked at last week, so perhaps this will be The “Catalyst” to snap through above the .8000 Handle in the Immediate-Term.

Our Longer-Term Uptrend Line here on The Hourly will certainly come into Play for more Clarification as well.

As always, I will be with you around 6:30 GMT for the early “Currency Majors Technical Perspective” Report and a Blog Update to follow, so please feel free to join me then!

Greetings again to All!

We come off of the NYSE Close relatively “Flat” and Mixed in Sentiment ahead of The FOMC Meeting continuing into The Decisions and Rhetoric tomorrow.

“Around The World”…  most Majors sees Appreciation on the back of Higher Crude Oil on Its 1st Day of the August Contract as the Weak Dollar gives it a Boost as a “Leading Indicator”.

The Euro picks up on the Momentum… as The Swissy and The Loonie fall in Depreciation.

The Yen Crosses resume aspects of their larger Longer-Term Trends, and The Pacific Dollars move ahead as well… despite the somewhat “Tighter” Range of The Kiwi moving along in a Range of around .6380’s to the .6490’s or so…

Let’s have another look at The Kiwi from out Post earlier, and see the Clarity of this Range.

Here is The Hourly with Commentary above, as we prepare to head into The Asian-Pacific Sectors pretty soon.

Give The Capture a Click for Various Levels, and Post-Time is 21:10 GMT.

The Hourly View Price Behavior is developing a Clear Bull Flag/Pennant Formation that if Complete, sees a Projected Area of the .6550’s Area… which is the Exact Area of the Weekly 50% Fib Variant from the February 24th Downleg!

( The Joys of Fibonacci! … You have to love it… hee hee… Here is a Daily View to see the Projection… )

The Hourly sees the Formation quite clearly, and if we find Correction soon, Price may slip on through to the .3715 Area back down to the Daily Static Support Zones of .6300 and .6280’s for some “Re-Testing” Sentiment.

At this Point, any further Depreciation is considered Out of Favor in my personal View in the Near-Term ahead of The FOMC Decision.

I have developed a Special Section  under the Education Tab of the FXstreet Home Page!

The Section is caled ”Fundamental Forex Foundations”, which will be a Series of Topics focused on the Majors Data Points we see that directly “Affect” Currency Traders and those in the Foreign Exchange World.

The First Two Installments are there…  “The Federal Reserve and The FOMC Committee” … a timely Topic we are dealing with right now, and then  “The Non-Farm Payrolls Data”  released a bit early for NFP in a couple of weeks!

Please join me Soon!

Greetings again, Everyone!

We arrive at The NYSE Close with Equities and The indices in slightly Positive Territory.

Gold and Oil still remain “Key Market Drivers” here concerning The Dollar… as Inflationary Concerns ease back just a bit. Mixed Price Action is Seen across most markets overall, albeit the relatively “Noisy” and “Heavy” Volatility and Whipsaw Behavior today.

The Queen illustrates the larger wide Swings quite well from an IntraDay perspective… as does The Swissy… which shows perhaps the most “Solid” Dollar Strength around The Units.

Give these two Captures a Click for Levels and Commentary above, and Post-Time is 21:00 GMT.

Cable gives us the “Spotlight” Unit for Volatility and really shows no signs of Easement in The near-Term. The Swings of 200-Pip Margins back and forth surely provided Opportunity and perhaps Frustration for IntraDay Traders moving within the constant 1.6211-1.6400 Range.

Slightly Bullish Sentiment coming off of the recent Swing-High from Support has Impetus to move through 1.6400 Resistance on the slight Hourly Pullback we are seeing as of Writing-Time.

The Asian Bourses picking up on the relatively positive U.S. Session Activity may be the Short-Term “Catalyst” needed here to see Fruition.

The Swissy, on the “Other Side of the Fence”, is our “Spotlight” Unit for Dollar Strength… and NOT because The Dollar is inherently Strong of Its own Merit.

In my personal View… We always are dealing with various Levels of Strong-vs. Weak in The Currency Markets, and in this case… The Swissy Itself is Weak due to The SNB and B.I.S. Interventions we saw earlier in the Day.

We see Price forming a New “Transitive Rollover” Area at the 1.0850’s as relatively Bullish Sentiment is still In Favor at the moment. Any Corrective Behavior sees a “Pause” at the 50% Fib Variant of the June 11th Daily Upleg… on the way to Static 1.0760 Support.

Please join me in a few Hours for our “Big Post” for Friday… as we observe hoe The Asian-Pacific Sectors pick up on the U.S. Activity today!

Please join me Soon!

Greetings, Everyone at The NYSE Close!

As we discussed in our previous Posts today… The Equity Markets are largely “Flat” today, and provided no real useful Correlation Activity for our Purposes here in the FX World.

The Yen Crosses largely continued on with their Risk-Averse Dollar Strength, as did most Major Units concerning The Dollar.

In my personal View, most of our Volatility came today in Commodities, as we saw earlier with the “Noisy” and “Erratic” Behavior in Crude Oil and Gold.

The Queen looked, perhaps, the most Volatile of The “Four Siblings” , as The Pound worked a 270-Pip Range into a “Feeding Frenzy” with Massive Swing “Whipsaw” Behavior.

Here is The Daily and Hourly Views for an IntraDay Illustration of The “Sharks in the Water”, if you will… hee heee….

Give The Captures a Click, and Post-Time is 21:20 GMT.

The Daily gives us a Clear View of the “almost” Double-Top Formation Completion we are seeing here… with “Full Textbook” Completion to be seen at the back into the 1.5350’s… although surely this is not In Favor in the Near-Term.

The Hourly is largely still Rangebound between the 1.6220’s Support and the 1.6480’s, Price is “caught” Mid-Air as an IntraDay Bull Flag appears to be in development here. Any Corrective Reactions in the Immediate-Term sees the 1.6315 Dynamic Support Area South… as 1.6480 is out Clear Resistance to the North.

Be sure to join me later for tomorrow’s “Big Blog” Post as we work through the current Price Action moving into the Asian-Pacific Sectors.

I hope to see all of You then!