Greetings again, Everyone!

As we move about 30 Minutes from The NYSE Close… our first Post at 7 GMT this morning ( Midnight for “Crazy CVJ”… as everyone usually calls me … ) comes to Fruition as we have worked throughout our Day.

The Dow and S&P 500 Correlations keep The Yen Itself extremely Well-Bid… as The Yen Crosses take a Dive along with Dollar Yen.

Of course also as we have discussed, The Energy Sectors are full of Uncertainty as Crude Clips about $9.00 in the last Week alone… down about 12% .

In my personal View,  The 875 Area or so on The S&P is a crucial Area here… as The Equities and Indices as a Whole pulled a few “Bear Market Rallies” that simply may have been Over-Extended.

To clarify my Thoughts here… We simply still have this Wide “Dis-Connect” between our actual Economic Health and Macro-Market Activity.

 Of course… I am in NO WAY implying The Markets are Wrong… as in my personal Philosophy…They Never Are.

It Is what It Is… and it is “Our Job” to Act accordingly with Prudence.

There is certainly a Difference between Mis-Pricing… and Markets actually being Wrong…

“OK…Off The Soap Box, CVJ! We told you yesterday!… Enough of your  Philosophical Babbling!”… the CVJ Fan Club Guys say.

( Is it time already to send them off for another Vacation???… hee heee…  

Here we bring up our Euro Yen and Pound Yen Crosses from earlier, and Price Action on both is rather Self-Explanatory.

Both Units Clip our Dynamic Trendlines to the Downside as Price reaches for more Stable Supportive Handles.

Give them a Click, and Post-Time is 19:50 GMT.

Now… as we move into The Asian-Pacific Sectors, we “should’ see “Bleedout” from the NY Session, and have The Asian Bourses bidding and opening lower… but of course, we shall see… as we prefer not to “Predict Anything”, but use Probabilities in our Favor.

We will take a good look at The Dollar Yen for tomorrow’s “Big Blog Post”, so please join me in a few hours as we move into Asian Work!

I will see Everyone soon!

Greetings once again, Everyone!

We are about 10 Minutes into The NYSE Open, where Equities and Indices are bidding slightly higher on overall Accumulation that has Clipped Immediate-Term Risk Aversion carrying over from Asia into The London/EU Sessions and into The U.S.

The BRICS Summit is underway in dealing with what may be considered “The True Foundation” of World Economic Hierarchy”… as Brazil, Russia, India, and China surely are viewed from a Long-Term Perspective and in The Near-Term… largely have massive Impact on The “Parallel Markets” of Commodities Markets moving ahead.

The Fiber finally sees a bit of Weight off of Its Back as German ZEW gives it a much-needed Boost, but still… overall…in my Personal View… The Risk-Averse Dollar Rally is somewhat “Transparent”.

While we have seen Dollar-Positive Rhetoric out of China and Russia within the past Week, we must also realize how “Shallow” it can be being a Major Factor in Yesterday’s “Corrective Day”.

Russian President Medvedev and Its Finance Minister Kudrin seemingly have a different “View” of The Dollar as the World’s Reserve Currency overall as Medvedev’s Rhetoric seeks to “downplay” The Dollar while Kudrin has no Issues with it.

In my View… China is the Real Key hereat the BRIC Summit… since It is the “Economic Powerhouse” with whom the most “Weight” carries concerning Dollar Sentiment.

Even so… ALL of this Rhetoric is providing an Unstable Foundation for Dollar Sentiment since The Rhetoric is in the Spotlight in the first place… hence… the overall Trend Resumptions we are seeing/may be seeing with most Units moving forward.

Here are The Hourly Views of The Fiber and The Pound Yen with Commentary above… so give the Captures a Click for Various Levels of Reference, and Post-Time is 14:00 GMT.

The Fiber looks to an IntraDay Hourly Uptrend Correction, as Price sees 1.3850’s Dynamic Resistance in the Immediate-Term now. Clearance of the 1.3630’s Resistance is need and if maintained… Price sees the 1.400 Handle easily In Sight.

Pound Yen sees The Risk-Averse Status holding more Validity as most of The Yen Crosses are still seeing Yen Strength on the general sense. Continuation here sees the Static Daily Support at 158.54 being Breached with the 156.50’s/60’s clearly In Sight if Momentum continues.

Equity and Index Correlations are “In Check” with these Crosses, so keep a Mindful Eye on them as we move along.

Of course… back with more Updates as we move ahead so please join me as all of You are always deeply Welcome!

Greetings, Everyone and Welcome To Saturday!

Writing-Time for me is about 9 A.M…. so it is 16:00 GMT.

With The G8 Summit this weekend in Italy… most Markets tend to weigh heavily on a lot of the Rhetoric that comes out of these “loaded” Meetings.

For many of us who tend to deal Primarily in The Currency Markets, these Meetings do not hold a lot of Weight… at least historically… as Currency have been largely “Ignored” in terms of any Commentary.

This time around… we do know that The Overall Sentiment of The U.S. Dollar is becoming ( and is…) increasingly Negative.

We do know that the massive Q.E. Program is moving at such a rapid pace here in the U.S., that Recovery in the “Very Long-Term” may come sooner for our entire economic situation… but a what Price?

The rest of our World Friends are not involved with “Cranking The Printing Presses” to such an Extent and to such a Deep Degree, which while a bit disadvantageous in The Near-Term… will surely be more “Healthy” in the Longer-Term.

Obama’s Band-Aid may be made of High-Carbon Refined Steel… but in the End… It will surely not be The Sharpest Knife in The Drawer!

Interest Rates are not a Factor here… They WILL Rise… and The REAL Question is simply When.

The Bond Yields are on Fire because Inflationary Concerns have to be controlled and are under Pressure to be controlled…. and the Key here is there is NOT a lot of Confidence in The current Administration that Inflation is being “Checked at The Door”, if you will.

The Sentiment…and Actions… of The Current Administration are heading right “Into The Wall” of Inflation under the “Justification” of letting the Economy stabilize and recover.

In my personal View… this is Ill-Advised and is already proving so when we simply look at the massively increasing Fiscal Deficit of 2009 that has already been accrued under the “guise” of Health and Recovery.

Buying your Way out of a Conflict does NOT resolve The Conflict Itself.

It simply presents YOU with ANOTHER Conflict!

Please join me tomorrow as we jump back into a little Analysis before The Sydney Open… and see if we get some Rhetoric out of The G8 coming across The Newswires!

Please join me then, and have a fine Day, Everyone! 

Greetings Everyone, and Welcome to Thursday!

We have several interesting Factors at Work here within The Currency World.

We will stick with a couple of these Factors… or we will be here for Days!

Perhaps the most Dynamic Aspect we saw Wednesday was the Return of Risk Aversion to The Markets, as The Beige Book Data Point Release gave some underlying Strength to The Dollar and the Economy as a whole… albeit a “Manipulated False” Perspective in my personal View.

Beige Book Macros stated that the 12 Fed Districts ALL SAW either weakening or worse Data in May across the Board.

Production continues to fall or remain flat… Real Estate continues to deteriorate… Consumer Spending and Retail Spending remains weak… and the only real “Positive” Data Point was one we keep Dear to our Hearts in the Currency Markets anyway… The Rising Price of Oil.

This is due… once again… to our “Counter-Intuitive” Thoughts of Weak… or Poor… or Negative Data… However You choose to Spin It!… as actually being Dollar Positive in Reaction.

The 10Y Treasury Notes Auction Wednesday is still indicative of a “Fear-Based Uncertainty” concerning the Looming Thoughts of Rising Interest Rates… as The Equities Fall and still harbor “Transparent Strength” moving forward.

The Trade Deficit Figures were released with all coming in “Higher-Than-Expected”, as Exports fall to their lowest Levels in about 3 Years and the overall 2009 Fiscal Debt Deficit climbs to almost 1 Trillion.

But Of Course after Consideration of ALL of This!…  The Recession is Over and We are Bottoming and Basing in All Sectors.

What ???         ;-)

OK… all of my obvious Sarcasm aside… We look at this Dollar Strength in relative Terms to the Price Action we are seeing… so let’s have a look at The Euro again as “The Currency Volume King”… and pull up a Yen Cross to see how the Yen is handling His Side of The Situation as well.

Here are the Hourly Views of EUR/USD and the EUR/JPY for Continuity.

Give The Captures a Click for Various Levels of Reference, and Post-Time is 1:00 GMT.

The Euro Yen sees the Risk-Averse Sentiment Fall from the Dynamic 138.30’s Resistance Area down to the 137.00’s “Transitive Rollover” Support… as Price may certainly Violate the Area in search of the next Range-Leg of the 137.00 to the 136.00 Area.

This Area may be the “Deepest” Price looks to go on an IntraDay Basis in the Immediate-Term, as we still have a Solid Bullish Uptrend in Place.

 Price looks to the 140.60’s Fib Variant Figure on The Weekly View here… which is certainly In Sight.

 The Fiber also sees Similar Sentiment… as the IntraDay Fib Variant of the Weekly 23.6% Dynamic Support Level comes into View.

The Daily Head & Shoulders Formation is looking for Full Completion as Downside-Risk increases.

In this Case… We arrive at our “Relative Sentiment Comparison” that The Yen is once again… “Weaker” than The Dollar in the Current Risk-Averse Climate.

As always, please join me for the “Currency Majors Technical Perspective” Report right around 6:30 tp 7:00 GMT, to be followed by a Blog Update as is usually the Case!

I hope to See You then!

Greetings again, Everyone and A Fine Sunday to You!

Writing-Time for me is 9 A.M., so it is 16:00 GMT.

With some Thoughts still floating around in my Noodle about the “Macro-State” of Things… I reluctantly raise the Subject of Economics.

Of Course… a Disclaimer is Mandatory.

I am not an Economist… I am a Trader.

I consider my self rather Apolitical… as my larger concerns tend to rest with the State of Contemporary Art than with the State of the Union… the State of the local Opera rather than the State of changes in Economic Theory.

So Here Goes!…         

In our current Climate of Quantitative Easing and the largest “Printing Press” known in Existence… we need to realize the beginnings of the current Crisis in “Sentiment” began with the Dot-Bomb Collapse in 1999-2000 or so… when they exorbitant Funding and “Free-For-All” Exuberance was in full swing.

How else can we justify “Abstract Artificial” Venture Capital Funding for an Internet Company that did not even exist… much less the IPO-Mania that followed it on “Launch Day”?…

We move forward throughout the first half of the Decade with most of that Exuberance still lingering in the Motivations and Supply and Demand habits never really wavering.

The Stimulus Packages, Bailouts, Incessant Policy Changes, etc. leave me with a clear Conclusion that can be drawn from these “Deep Over-Corrections” of all of this is realized as we look into the Near-Term Future.

Inevitably… Interest rates and Inflation will gradually come back into The Equation, as these two Elements begin to creep higher as “The Recovery” continues.

The real issue, in my personal View, is what do we do, then, with the massive Quantitative Easing  which literally quadruples our National Debt  with just the “Shopaholic Spending Spree” of January and February?

We may handle the situation with Higher Interest Rates alleviating some of the Fallout… or simply raise Taxes across the board… neither sit well if done in a rapid Fashion, as The Treasury will have to sell Bonds at a reasonable Rate to capitalize all of this.

So we have The Path of Interest Rates or The Path of Taxes… both if which are “Behind The Curve”, so to speak, deep Unemployment is not stabilizing fast enough to cover this aspect of The Gap.

In this sense… The Cure of massive Q.E. and Massive ongoing Deficit are surely Worse that the Exuberance of The Disease.

Higher Across-The-Board Taxes and Higher looming Interest Rates on the Horizon may just see us back where we started…

Another Recession.

DISCLAIMER:

The above Thoughts are in no way indicative of a Wharton-Trained Economist… but indicative of Divergent-Thinking Trader whom you may think is crazy.

This is acceptable… as it certainly will not be the first time.

Hee hee hee…    

See all of You later for The Sydney Open to begin our New Week of Trading!

:

Greetings again to All!

With our last two previous Posts/Updates…we have simply seen Price Succession as we have moved from the Asian-Pacific Sector into the U.S. Session over the last 12+ hours now….as we favor this continued Strength in the Immediate-Term.

The Yen Crosses have behaved in “Classical Textbook” Fashion in terms of  Price Formations and Corrective ease… as various Flags/Pennants are under formation on the IntraDay Hourly Views.

On the Macro-Term… our old friend, “Rhetoric”, appeared once again out of Japan indicating no real interest in any sort of “new” Global Currency, as Japan has no interest in changing the “Status Quo”… and they do not wish to discuss the Issue at next week’s G20 Conference.

This, on the back of strong PCE and Michigan Sentiment… gave the Dollar and Yen Bulls some “Catalysts” to continue Corrections against their recent Weaknesses.

Here are our Hourlies again, so give them a Click for Commentary.

Post-Time is 16:10 GMT.

Have a fine weekend, Everyone and as always… I will be with you again for the Sydney Open Sunday afternoon ( my time) !

Welcome back for another week !

The EUR/USD in the near-term is clocking in with Bearish Momentum and, perhaps, even more  Bearish “Sentiment” in the Macro-Term.

Technically… the “heavy weight” of all of its’ Member Countries… its’ uncoupling and bitter divorce with Gold… plus being stabbed in the back by Gold and its’ new marriage with the U.S. Dollar surely rivals the Academy Awards Show of last night!

“CVJ!… You call those Technicals?… What… Is that your new version of Market Analysis?… Metaphor and Word-Play?”,  the CVJ Fan Club Guys rant….

“OK OK, Guys… just trying to be a little festive!”…. 

The title of today’s Post comes from another reflective weekend in which I was trying to “Connect the Dots”, as they say… and also thinking about some thoughts I had months and months ago.

Most of my friends here at the Blog know of my music and art background… and I was thinking of Mozart this weekend as I was doing some composing.

 ( I am working on an Opera that I began back in 1991… abandoned, revised, abandoned, etc….  a story for another time… )

My thought of Mozart concerned the idea of “Disconnect”.

Here we have a child prodigy of music with such innate talent and perfection… certainly one of the finest Contributors to Humanity in my personal view… yet this exact talent and perfection was often subservient to the Aristocracy of his Time.

Talk about a Disconnect!… 

 I would like to spend the week going over these “Disconnections” with the Euro Dollar, Dollar Strength, and the relation of Gold to both of these Units.

( I will vacillate throughout the week between these Three… but of course… update with any aberrations that arise in other Markets as well…. )

Concerning the EUR/USD Unit… I recall a conversation with a friend we were having about Currency movement throughout 2008… after all… this was about March of last year.

While we were not coming to any real conclusions ( a perilous journey for a Trader, as always…) … we were simply contemplating a specific and massive Paradigm shift with the Euro itself.

So… let’s start with some relatively “Naked” Charts and drill down from a Monthly, to a Daily, to an Hourly.

We will stick, then, with our Hourly for Updates as the day moves along…

Give the Captures a Click, and Post-Time Sunday evening (for me) is 2:35 GMT.

We will check back with some Updates to see if our immediate-term Bullishness plays out with confidence!

Welcome to a new week and Happy Monday!

“What happened to the big “Risk Appetite is back!” cheers from the Media world?….

We thought the Majors were back and the Dollar is fading away???”… I can hear the CVJ Fan Club guys say …with clear sarcasm, of course.

Surely our Non-Farm Payroll Data would compliment their sarcastic views..as we still have Dollar and Yen strength which is “counter-intuitive”.

We now hear of true and “actual” Unemployment NOT being at 7.2% or so…but 13.5%! …when we factor in those looking for work who have simply given up, and also the increases in non-measurable part-time employees.

Will the CVJ Guys be proven wrong?…maybe…but for the time being…Risk Aversion may be back in place in the near-term.

So let’s have a visit with the Queen again…and check on Cable.

When we left Her on Friday…we were drilling down to a 5-Minute time cycle and noticed a Double Top formation that may come to fruition.

We left our little “Channel of Congestion” around the 50% Daily Fib of the last major Down-Leg as a near-term “magnet”…and we surely have re-entered this Basing area.

 (Post-Time is 3:20 GMT)

(click once for capture)

Here is the larger Daily view…to see the Fibonacci confluence points and a Macro- “Triple Bottom” behaving Formation.

Curious about the title of today’s Post?

It is a “play on words” and a little “inside ribbing” for my Premium colleague and friend, Ray!

We spent plenty of time last year discussing how all of his countrymen were coming over to the States on a round-trip one day shopping spree for Christmas…buying half of Florida…and then running me off the road out here in Phoenix by their “backwards” driving!

Well..this year it may be my turn!

I suppose it is my time to come over…buy a nice Flat…and drive “on the wrong side” of their roads!

Seriously…all humor aside…where the U.K. economy goes and the ways they choose to heal their wounds will essentially be no different from us here in the States.

No Man is an Island…and No Economy is Either.

 :-)

(As I mentioned last week…I will try to do Intraday Updates and along with this will come shorter-term views. Most of you know my personal views tend to be longer-term…so I thought it would be beneficial to give some thoughts to all of you who trade Intraday time cycles.)

An update, everyone!

Our Turkey seems to be insatiable before the Thanksgiving Holiday…I guess Durable Goods was not enough for his appetite!

Running away with New Home Sales at the worst levels since 1991…he has plenty of new construction to gobble up, doesn’t he!

New Home Sales off a good 20K since last month, down to 433K units sold.

Our macro Indexes…Chicago PMI and Michigan Consumer Sentiment clock in at 33.8 and 55.3 respectively…indicating the overall economic “contraction” continues on its’ destructive path.

Clearly today’s Data Points are simply more verification of what we already know…that the United States economy as a whole is still in dire straits…hence Global economic health is moving right along with it.

Our Turkey may go to table tomorrow…but with these Numbers today…He may continue to eat in the “afterlife”…  

NO…it’s not what you think!

I did get your attention, though!

The particular Lady I am referring to is one in which we ALL have a love/hate relationship with…similar to a real relationship, I suppose.

Her name?

OIL!

I thought I would spend a few Posts on our relationships and correlations with Oil and Gold…the two most related Commodities to our concerns in the Foreign Exchange markets.

The derivatives that most apply here for us are the Canadian Dollar and the Australian Dollar….so today, let’s focus on the USD/CAD and Crude Oil as a relationship.

We all are aware of the deep correlations between these two…Crude Oil and the Canadian Dollar have correlated in the macro-term approximately 81-82% over the last several years.

In fact, many Futures and Commodities Traders will use Crude Oil as a “leading Indicator” in their work with the Canadian Dollar as a Futures Contract…as well as in their OTC Spot work.

(Yes…you guessed it. CVJ’s “rhetorical question”…)

So why shouldn’t we???

“A fine idea!”, I hear many of you say…  

First things First, though…

I would like to focus purely on some introductory basics of Crude Oil today, as it is such a heated topic worldwide. We will continue on with other aspects of this relationship as we progress.

With the U.S. Dollar being the reserve currency for Oil around the world, it would make common sense to us that when Crude rises, the Dollar itself will fall. Conversely, the same is relatively true.

We can see with these two Chart captures, we have a very strong “Inverse”, or opposite, relationship.

(click once for capture)  

Here is a multi-year Overlay Chart of the Loonie and Black Gold that shows this relationship quite well!

Beautiful, isn’t it?…and for me…the real beauty here is despite popular belief and assumption…these two are NOT one in the same!

Simply look at the Price action here. We are not correlating 100% of the time.

I have heard in too many cases that trading the Canadian Dollar…is actually trading Oil.

I have heard in too many cases…”Let’s have a look at Crude Oil”… in direct reference to a USD/CAD Chart.

Again… NOT the same thing!

Crude Oil only has about 18-22% of the overall “Basket” of criteria and value that goes into USD/CAD’s exchange rate.

Does not the vast country of Canada do other things?…or does all of it’s inherent value in its’ currency come from a singular source…Oil.

Of course not!

This is my “built-in” Lesson for today.

Whenever you are looking at a Derivative…whether it be a Currency pair, a Commodity, a Bond, an Index, and so on…

Be sure to see the Instrument on it’s own merit. Learn about all of the factors and criteria involved that make up the elements of the Instrument.

P.S. - Tomorrow, we will look at some Crude Oil Technical analysis, and discuss some of the Fundamental heated ”flashpoints” surrounding our beloved Black Gold.

We’ve seen about a 6.6% decline from just a week ago, and testing the massive $50 area this week looks highly probable.

Love her or hate her…She will not be Ignored!

Sort of like that person sitting next to you at the breakfast table every morning!…hee hee hee…