Greetings again, Everyone!

The positive importance of The U.K. Retails Sales Data is showing “slight” sign of Stabilization as Actuals of a 1.3% rise clipped the 0.3% Consensus with ease. While this translated into a nice Break of The Queen and Her Major Cross into Appreciation… we would really need to see stronger and stronger Purchasing “Evidence” coming out of the U.K. Consumer over a several-month period to really see Retail Sales as a Bellwether of positive Sentiment and Growth.

Let’s check in briefly with The GBP/USD and The GBP/JPY, and here are our same Hourly Views.

Give The Captures a Click, and Post-Time is 10:45 GMT.

 The Magenta Dynamic Support Line did, in fact, Hold for us and become a “new” Transitive Rollover Area of Static Support. Price now clips the 1.6510 Resistance Area, and if we do not see an Impulsive Correction back to the 1.6440’s Levels, then the 1.6600 Handle is on the way via 1.6555 Dynamic Resistance.

A Correction at 1.6600 then has a rather High-Probability of occurring, as Static Resistance at this Level is solid.

The Pound Yen show similar Price Action that is even more “extended” on the IntraDay View as we see a “potential” Double-Top Behavior if Price can fall on the Yen Strength, and bring the Corrective Sentiment further along. Solid Confluence is seen here with the Transitive Rollover Support Area and the Weekly 38.2% Fib Variant that we have held for months now.

The Daily Lower Channel Line may hinder this, and act as Dynamic Support… in the same fashion it acted as Dynamic Resistance over the last two Days of Hourly Candles.

While both of these Units are Overbought on the Hourly Views… taking a “Clue” from the U.S. Jobless Claims and Existing Home Sales Data will be relevant as we see to what “Degree” The Dollar is affected in a couple of hours!

Be sure and check back in for more Updates to follow, so I hope to see All of you soon!

Greetings again, Everyone!

As our Equities/Indices Correlations move along with some Dollar and Yen Risk Appetite, most Units are moving into Areas of Accumulation after consistent Appreciation throughout the Day and the NY Session.

The Dow and S&P are largely “Flat” as of Writing-Time, confirming a certain “Neutrality” as Price Points continue to “rest” a bit as we move closer towards The Close.

The GBP/USD illustrates these Points quite well from an IntraDay Perspective.

Here is The Hourly View, so give it a Click for various Levels of Reference.

Post-Time is 17:45 GMT.

The Queen looks to completely negate the previous Downleg of Dollar Strength, as Price forms a “V” Hourly Reversal combined with a Double-Top at the 1.6230’s Dynamic Resistance. This is the “Active Volatility” we are referring to… while we have Activity, we are still “caught” in a Range anchored by clear 1.5980’s Support and 1.6380’s Resistance.

A “Catalyst” is needed to Breach the “Neutrality” on either Side, as a solid Break of 1.6380’s Static Resistance will bring some Bullish Builds back into the Game towards the 1.6430’s and 60’s in the Near-Term… as will a Clip of the 1.5980’s for continual Bearish Sentiment.

So… as always… We work with what we have… and various Support and Resistance Strategies would be quite effective here if your Trading Style compliments an IntraDay View.

The volatile, yet “controlled” Price Action here is quite indicative of Market Sentiment as we still work within these larger intraDay Ranges.

We know the “Boundaries” of our Playing Field… but it is surely an active and eventful Game!… to use a Sports Analogy.

Ranging and Consolidating Climates like these on the larger Time-Cycles are one Rationale that Position Traders and others with Longer-Term Views will cite as part of their “Toolbox” of justifications for their own Trading “Styles”… myself included.

Others will thrive an excel in these types of Climates, such as those Traders  who prefer” Fading” Price Action and working in the larger and wider Range-Bound Environments.

I always mention on The Blog that I am “Style-Neutral”.

Whatever works for you is Best for you… Period.

The Beauty of The Markets is there is always Room for Everyone… but Room for No One with inconsistent and Unmanaged Risk.

I will be back at The Close as we move along and prepare for The Asian Pacific Sectors to pick up on the Price Action as well… so please join me soon!

Greetings again, Everyone!

As we had expected, The RBA Holds their Overnight Rate @ 3.0% favoring their effective 3-Month Policies of Late, although a hint at further Easing may be needed during their “Wait and See” Policy Shifts.

Price simply moves back into It’s Range between the .7950’s “Transitive Rollover” Support and the Key .8000 Daily Static Resistance Range.

Here is The Hourly View, as we have Accumulation working through “The Chop” here.

Post-Time is 7:10 GMT.

The Aussie here is also a “Candidate for The  Directionless Markets” we have been seeing, as well as most Majors as of this Writing… at least on The IntraDay Views for all of My Friends who Work on these Time-Cycles.

With the Aversion slightly and “easily” Reversed a bit yesterday concerning The Dollar, The Queen has at least showed us a bit more “Activity” in anticipation of The BoE… although this is largely “tempered” by The G-8 as well as The BoE also expected to Hold Rates as well.

What will be an interesting aspect for The BoE is the “now-classic” Will-We-Hear- More-Concerning-Future-Quantitative-Easing Arguments moving forward… that is surely The Modus Operandi of The Global Central Banks ( save largely for Trichet and The ECB… some people are just so stubborn, aren’t they?… hee hee hee…    ;-)

While The Queen is currently working through IntraDay Neutrality, She is still largely vulnerable to the Volatility we saw yesterday from The Risk-Averse Dollar and Yen. Any Expansion seen in The Purchase of Additional Assets by The BoE will see similar Pressure on The Queen… and she will once again flounder in “Her Continual English Channel Swim Analogy” that we always speak of!

A Clip through the Dynamic Uptrend Line here can see The 1.5800 Area in the Near-Term, while on “The Other Side of the fence” a Push through 1.6330’s with a Hold will be favorable to those of you with Longer-Term Views towards 1.66… again… as long as Price can remain Above and “Out of The Neutral Zones” here!

Here is The Hourly View, so give The Capture a Click for Levels.

(Also… be Mindful of Industrial and Manufacturing Production out of The U.K. @ 8:30 GMT which could surely be a “Catalyst” in their own right…)

We cannot forget about Global Decline in Oil Demand also playing a Role here… having an “Indirect Effect” on most Currency Units, thereby keeping The Dollar and Yen clearly In View.

The “Neutrality” we spoke of is clearly evident with my just-published “Currency Majors Technical Perspective” Report, as the lack of significant Conviction in our “Four Sibling” Units is seen.

(Writing-Time was a bit early for me for today’s Report, so Price Points will be different… but Overall Sentiment remains Intact.)

As always, I will have plenty of Updates to come for You… as we see if some “Catalysts” will come our way as we get closer to The G-8!

( China’s Rhetoric that we discussed in our previous Post is still a Factor here… so we will certainly monitor that Situation moving forward! )

Greetings, Everyone and a Fine Saturday to You!

Writing-Time is about 9 a.m… so 16:00 GMT.

We end the Trading Week still “Anchored” everywhere by Horizontal Ranges in most Units… Currency and Otherwise… as The Dollar remains weak against Its “Risk Aversion/Appetite Brother,”, The Yen… while remaining largely Rangebound from the Macro-View in most Pairs.

We have large Triangle/Flag/Pennant-Type Formations of Continuation, as Price sees more Deep Breaks on the Horizon soon.

Despite the Speed and “Spotlight” Momentum of The Queen lately… in my Personal View… It is still  the Commodity Currencies that see the strongest “Weight” of The Pendulum Swing against The Dollar.

On the “Other Side of the Fence”… The Yen and even the Euro still have Battles of Strength vs. Weakness to deal with in more of an “evenly matched” Scenario with The Dollar.

The Yen Crosses move along nicely, as the “Degree of Disconnect” in Strength and Weakness is usually distinct and wide… so when they Rally…t hey move with Significance. When they Fall… they Depreciate with Significance as well, hence becoming Solid Units with Volume and Liquidity.

In my View, the Euro is a fine Illustration of the “Financial Gridlock and Pressure” we are still dealing with… as the “Weight” from the Macro-Level is still haunting The Pair.

From the Daily View, we do have a Clear Bull Flag Formation in progress, which signifies Continuation, but also a Break to the Upside with “Full Completion”, in this Case, around the 1.5100 Handle…which is certainly not In Favor at this time.

Downside-Risk sees possible Negative EuroZone Data Points taking Price to the 38.2% Fib Variant of the April Upleg Confluence with Dynamic Support.

The some what “Indecisiveness” of The Euro is indicative of overall Market Sentiment, and I really do not see The FOMC next Week changing any real Views of The Dollar as well in terms of Activity…. so we continue Onward with what The markets define for us to Work with, as always!

Have a fine Day, Everyone and please join me tomorrow for another Sunday Post!

Greetings once again, Everyone at The NY Close!

The U.S. Equities and Indices come largely “In Line” with slight  “Round-Turn Flatness”… meaning we End largely where we Began.

While Volatility was not largely seen in The Equities despite Expiry today… we can argue that The “Quadruple Witching” may have had an Impact on Position Covering across the Board as we head into The Weekend.

The Key Drivers in my personal View today were Volatility… and Its Father… Volatility Sr. !… hee hee…

The Majors dealt with increased Risk Appetite and small impulsive “Breaks” all of the “IntraDay Map”, especially with “The Four Sibling Majors”.

As we reviewed early at 7:00GMT during my “Currency Majors” Report , we did see initial subtle Bearish Sentiment leading into The European Session… and as we moved along… The Larger Consolidation Ranges did Contain Price.

We know from Classic Technical Analysis that even the most “subtle and tepid” Areas of Accumulation leading to Consolidation will need to eventually “blow off Steam”, as the old saying goes… and this is precisely what we observed with the Breaks throughout The Four Majors and many of The Yen Crosses.

We use the GBP/USD and EUR/USD for Illustration here on The Hourly Views, so give the Captures a Click for Levels, and Post-Time is a little over an hour after The NYSE Close at 21:15 GMT.

As has been the case with leading the “Volatility Path”, The Queen certainly ran with this Sentiment, as an Hourly Bull Flag is now In Formation. A Break of the Area may see Depreciation back to the 1.6400 Handle “Transitive Rollover” Support… as Price seeing the 1.6600 Handle is not due in the Immediate-Term with Sunday’s Sydney Open.

The Fiber sees more Consolidative Retracement with Its own “Break Move”, as we have literally complete Retracement here, that is Negating the Impulsive Gesture in the first Place. The Hourly Double-Top is In Play here… as Price looks back towards Dynamic Support at the Magenta 1.3900’s Area.

Similar to The Queen…a larger Breach of higher Resistance ( in this case… up around the 1.4040’s Area…) is needed for any Solid Bullish Sentiment to truly be back In Favor in the Near-Term.

As is very often the Case with Breakout… we see them “Fail” and Correct back to Previous Levels, and in Today’s Examples… The Expiry Issues surely cold have been a Factor with Institutional Re-Positioning.

Be sure to have a fine Evening, Everyone!… and I will be back with you for some “Weekend Thoughts” tomorrow and Sunday, so please join me for a Visit!

Greetings again, Everyone!

We arrive at The U.S. NYSE Close… where Equities were largely “Flat” today as is The Dow and S&P… despite coming off of their Lows from earlier in The Session.

Crude Oil remains the “Macro-Star” of the Day… with Gold right behind as these Commodities and their Correlations do contribute and are one Factor in The Macro-Dollar Weakness as well.

The Macro-Consolidation seen on the Daily Dow View is indicative of most Consolidative Activity on Currency Units as well.

We did see some Corrective Strength in The Dollar and Yen as we spoke of in our previous Blog Update… and as expected… The Corrections were “Shallow” at Best up this Point.

Let’s check the Consolidation on The Dow Daily, and also have a look at The Dollar-Correction Extent by looking at The Queen on the Hourly.

Give the Captures a Click for Reference Levels, and Post-Time is the “Doldrum Times” at about 20:30 GMT.

The Queen is certainly indicative of Correctional Activity beginning… and I emphasize that my Thoughts on “Shallow” Corrections are a Reference only up to this Point in Time… as Deeper Dollar and Yen Strength may certainly continue in The Near-Term.

We can see this “Potential” on The Hourly View… as Price may See and be held “In The Box” of my Magenta Support and Resistance Lines here, as 1.6170’s Daily Static Support is certainly a possibility!

As always, I will be back with you in just a little while for Thursday’s “Big Blog” Post, so please join me soon!

Greetings, Everyone and a Happy Saturday to All!

Writing-Time is 7 A.M. for me, so it is 14:00 GMT.

I thought I would add a few Thoughts today on all of the Rhetoric surrounding the “Superior” Non-Farm Payrolls Data we saw yesterday.

At least The Media would have us believe this deeply Premature Sentiment.

As I mentioned yesterday… In my personal View… there is nothing glowingly “Superior” or “Positive” about 9.4% Unemployment.

There is nothing deeply Positive about literally  5 unemployed Persons for every 1 Job Opening.

Now… don’t start calling me a “Perma-Bear” and making Plans again for The Firing Squad!      

I am certainly pleased with the overall Sentiment of Data we have seen in recent Months, with subtle Basing in many Fundamental Areas… I just feel The Bigger Picture is not being considered here from the Daily Information that the Layman Non-Trading Population receives.

As Traders, we know where to look for Confirmation of REAL Data that we see… we know where to go to get a “Measure of Sentiment”… as we have our Quality Newswires, Price Charts, and each other… that the Layman Public simply does not have.

We know not to take things at Face Value… and dig a little Deeper into the Data and Information.

Let’s look at the “spotlight Currency” of the Week…The Queen… to Illustrate my point here.

Very Simple… as we all do this all the time.

Here is The “Headline” Mainstream View.

“Oh Wow!… Look at that!…The British Pound is on a Roll!… The strength is unbelievable!… The Pound is back for sure!… Look at Her go!…”

Here is the Hourly of the Trend Mid-Week…

…And here is the Dollar Strength to Negate that same Hourly trend…

BUT… “Look at Her go!” ???…

Hmm… The Queen is a bit “tempered” now, isn’t She… when we See her on the Weekly View.

My Point here is just like with Currency and other Products We work with each Day… We always get out there and look at The Bigger Picture.

The same should be said with The Global Financial Situation.

Positive Data Points for One Release over One Month Does NOT a Recovery Make!!!

Have a Fine Saturday, Everyone and I will see you tomorrow!

Greetings, Everyone and Welcome to “Central Bank” Thursday!

Obviously after the Massive Corrections seen… at least relative to IntraDay Views… We have reached “Re-Positioned Levels” ahead of the Bank of England and the European Central Bank Rate Decisions at 11:00 and 11:45 GMT,  where both Entities hold Consensus to Hold Rates at 0.5% and 1.0%, respectively.

We also have On The Docket more Employment-Sector Data, with Initial and Continuing Jobless Claims as well as the Bank of Canada looking for a little Daylight with their Interest Rate Decision… despite Expectations of a Hold there as well.

Let’s take a “Tour” and check in with the AUD/USD, USD/CAD, Crude Oil, and USD/JPY.

This will give us a rather Comprehensive View of where The Dollar stands on “Both Sides of the Fence”…. ( Of Course… We know It is surely having difficulty standing at all!… hee heee… )

Give the Captures a Click for various Levels of Reference, as Commentary precedes The Captures.

Post-Time is 1:30 GMT.

The Commodity Currencies are “Basing” in Ranges of 70-80 Pips or so… as The Aussie finds Dynamic Support and Resistance right on Its Weekly 50% Fib Variant and the .8000 Figure of Round-Number Static Resistance… as we spoke of yesterday in an Update.

Oil continues Its “Basing” as well between the $65.50-$66.00 Levels, as The Loonie continues Its Dollar Rebound with a Bounce from Dynamic “Transitive Rollover” Support at the 1.1050’s Handle.

Our Levels were met on both Units, with clear Support and Resistance Levels seeing Contact and anchoring Price.

The Dollar Yen continues It “Push and Pull Battle” with The Dollar with Inversion… as during Climates of Risk Aversion, we look to see Who is the Strongest “In-Flight  Safe Haven” Unit. In Risk Appetite Climates such as now, we look to determine Who is the Weakest to Counter with other Beta Units.

A Break of the 95.50’s Static Support sees a deeply potential return to the 95.00 Handle, as the 94.50’s to the High 93.80’s is certainly Probable with the Weight of Yen Correction against The Dollar.

Let’s observe how the Asian-Pacific Sectors handle the Activity, and please join me around 6:30/7:00 GMT for the “Currency Majors Technical Perspective” Report… to be followed by a Blog Update specifically concerning EUR/USD and GBP/USD as we prepare for the Interest rate Decisions.

I also invite you to please Join our FXstreet Advisor and my good friend,  Valeria Bednarik,  and Myself for the “BoE and ECB Interest Rates Decisions” Live Coverage beginning at 10:45 GMT !

Coverage will be on the FXstreet Home Page and Calendar, so have a look  for Registration!

Greetings once again to All !

As we progress through the U.S. Session, some Data Points to consider concerning The Dollar… as well as The Yen losing The “Risk-Aversion Battle” with Its Brother-In-Arms… The Dollar!

U.S. Existing Home Sales came in slightly “Better-Than-Expected” but largely “In Line” with Consensus… as The Euro had relatively “Muted” reaction to The Data.

We still have massive Inventory of “Low-Housing”… meaning Short Sales and Foreclosure Issues to contend with… and this is still only one Aspect of The Economy that needs significant Consistency and Improvement.

This is not a Surprise since The Fiber is still “locked” into that Weight of Consolidation and Range.

The Queen, on the other Hand, can now be said to have “Unlocked” Her Correlation with the EUR/USD, as Dollar Weakness continues with the Trending and Appreciating Cable!

( This is certainly an Important Note… as we so often assume the EUR/USD and the GBP/USD Correlation to always be Constant…. hence… we may take this For Granted as we must realize these are Two Separate Entities… )

Crude Oil does find Correlation with most Commodities and U.S. Indices… as The Dow and S&P 500 are under nice Appreciation… and we just may see  the 8800’s on The Dow, and The 930’s on the S&P… although in the Mid-Term as our Current Climate continues.

Here is the Hourly of Crude July Contract… and let’s pull in The Loonie as well.

( We already know the Strength and Directionality of The Queen…so we will visit Her again later !…  She is still having a Fine Time in The Battle of The Channel with the Euro… so we will, indeed, bring it up for our next Update!… )

Give the Captures a Click for Commentary, and Post-Time is 15:30 GMT.

Of course, I will be back with you later for more Updates…as we see how far The Equities and Indices can “pull” Major Currencies along today!

Of Course… The Queen would say She relies on Her Own Sovereign Power in any Market Conditions!

Hee heee…. Cheers, Queen!