Greetings again, Everyone!

We arrive about 75 Minutes into The NYSE Open where the Dow and S&P Indices are varying from largely “Flat” to a bit of early Gains. Bernanke’s continued Testimony today will continue to play a large part in Equity sentiment today, as will the continued Roll-Outs during Earnings Season.

Our Thought on the MPC Minutes out of The Bank of England came to fruition as both Dynamic and Static Support Levels were hit, and Price Appreciation immediately cam back in to secure the same Levels once again.

Here are The Captures of both for a quick Reference, so give them a Click… and Post-Time is 14:45 GMT.

The Queen met and surpassed Lower static Support at the 1.6330’s where Price Appreciation on Prime Minister Brown’s and The BoE’s Rhetoric for a more “positive outlook” on The U.K. Economy provided the Impetus here. Our thoughts on the “decreasing likelihood” of additional Quantitative Easing gave he Pound a boost here… as even several hours later…we still “Anchor” at the 1.6380’s/1.6400 Supportive Areas.

As in our Pre-MPC Post last evening… The Pound Yen is literally taking The Queen’s lead here with a step of Depreciation to the lower 152.30’s Static Support back to the 153.20’s and finding “Safe Harbor” there for now.

In turning to The Euro… in my personal View the most “Directionless” Unit around… a “Catalyst” is surely needed to move Price out of Its Accumulating and Consolidating nature… ( of course, my thought here will be dependent on the Time-Cycles you prefer to work on…)

We still do have a “loose” Correlation of Sentiment with U.S. Equities and Gold and Oil… although the relatively “Flat” Hourly Descending Channel give us extensive Wicks of indecision to work with.

The Month-over-Month Housing Price Index comes in above Consensus, although the weak Year-over-Year Numbers largely negate this… so no real surprises there.

We now see one of my personal favorite Data Point Releases, as most of you know, The EIA Oil Inventory Builds… and those Numbers come in with Inventories slightly down while Gasoline and Distillate Builds are slightly higher than Consensus… and we see no real Market Reaction here concerning The Dollar.

All Eyes are now on Uncle Ben as we move along!…so more Updates to follow as usual!

I would like to point out something I have been aware of for quite a while through my good friend and FXstreet’s Chief Analyst, Valeria Bednarik, and her Work along with Alberto Munoz and Tatsuya Kawanishi of the FXstreet Content Team, on the new revamped FXstreet Tools Section and Area!

Having been around these woods here on FXstreet since early 2005… I have seen many deep improvements and changes come and go to the Content of the whole Site, and this is one of the most exciting!

To have these Tools revised and more effective in their Application will surely benefit all who use them!

Here is The Link so give them a Try!

http://www.fxstreet.com/forex-tools/

Greetings again, Everyone at The NYSE Close!

Sectors, The Indices, and overall Market “Sentiment” are all in positive Territory primarily on the back of continued Positive Earnings across many Sectors.

While we arrive at a 7-Day Positive Rally… I will bring up a Term all of you have heard me mention several times in the past few months.

“Bear Market Rally”.

Are we really seeing a semblance of overall Health here?… or are we simply seeing some Over-Extension and Over-Bought Conditions?

I would lean towards the Latter in my personal View. 

We certainly can see the S&P approaching the 960 Area, but in the “Case of The Correction”, as I like to say… the Extended Price Action truly may see a Immediate-Term Top there prime for a Reversal… hence a nice Daily Double-Top will then be in Formation.

This will obviously translate over to The Dow as well… despite the “Positive Earnings’ Sentiment.

Here is a quick View of The Daily S&P 500 to check on these Levels once again.

Post-Time is 20:50 GMT.

In looking at my “Real-Time” Currency Correlations, we can see some Disparity today with the poor Queen being the significant Driver of Depreciation… in Her Major and in The Crosses.

 While as of this exact moment, Price is beginning to stage Bullish Build from the previous “Re-Test” of the 1.6380’s Transitive Rollover Support… Price is still off about 90 Pips, and about 160 with the GBP/JPY Cross.

In contrast, EUR/GBP is holding on to its 40+ Pip Gain for the Day.

Here is the Hourly View of The Queen, so give it a Click for various Levels.

Price needs to Clip and regain the 1.6500 Handle here for the development of a “new” Transitive Rollover Area, and our IntraDay Trendline here will provide some Dynamic Support moving forward.

If we see Failure, and Price breaches the actual Lower Channel Daily Trendline here as well… then the 1.6200 Handle and beyond is certainly In View.

Now we move onto the Asian Sectors soon, where the Positive Sentiment will usually be picked up by the Nikkei and The Aussie Exchanges for our initial Indication of Continuation.

Please join me soon for tomorrow’s “Big Blog” Post as we also check in with how The Asian Sectors are progressing!

I hope to see you then!

Greetings Everyone, and welcome to Wednesday!

While we have seen IntraDay Momentum and Volatility leading to solid Reversals in Price Behavior… the Ranges we work with are still Clear, Defined, and Intact.

As we come out of a  Risk-Averse Climate, we will not “logically” expect to see Risk Appetite completely reverse the “Holdings of the Day”, as they say.

In Art, Painters will “see” Line, Plane, Composition, and Color… but we still know the “Nature” of the Color will change and transfigure as it begins to actually dry.

In my deeply personal and esoteric View here… our current Climate of Price Behavior within most Units is very similar to this Analogy.

As we talked about early on Tuesday at the NYSE Open, we have plenty of Activity and Momentum in The Markets to work with, but we lack any semblance of clear Directionality moving forward.

Welcome to the Summer.

Welcome to Uncertainty.

Welcome to some of the exact Reasons for Why We Do What We Do!

In all seriousness, Climates such as these are what Currency Traders live for…. a lack of “Real” Institutional Volume that we are already beginning to see in the Correlations and Participation of related Markets… and the Anticipation and Seasonality of Energy as an entire Sector as the world’s largest consumer of Energy, The U.S., looks to travel and move about in a very complex economic environment. 

Is it truly any “shock” why Crude Oil is the “Leading Indicator” of The Day in the last few weeks?

Work with it or not… it is part of the Equation of the Trading Work we all are doing, so it is advisable to be mindful of.

In any event, let’s check in with The Loonie, the Dollar Canadian Unit, as a “Proxy” for Crude Oil… and I emphasise PROXY.

We often hear of working with the USD/CAD as the same as “Trading Oil”.

This is ill-advised and simply incorrect.

While the Correlation between these two is always deeply high, we must accept the two Products on their own Merit… Period.

Crude Oil… whether as a Futures Contract or as the Continuous Contract on the NYMEX… is a Product with it’s own Characteristics, Criteria, and Tendencies.

The Canadian Dollar is the same… and should be given the same Respect.

The Canadian Economy does not solely rely on Crude Oil Outflows… so why should we consider it as such?

Here we have The Hourly View, so give the Capture a Click for various Levels.

Post-Time is 00:50 GMT.

We can immediately see the Strength of The Loonie Itself against The Dollar is “extreme” compared to Its overall Crude Oil Correlation, so we have an Outlier right there in terms of Similarities.

Price looks for a significant Bounce here from the Daily Dynamic Support Confluence with the 23.6% Weekly Downleg Fib Variant.’The Bear Flag in formation here holds “heavy weight” upon it, due to the Uni-Directionality of the Downtrend…. but a Clip of the 1.1440’s will give The Dollar a bit of Oxygen in the Immediate-Term.

The Unit is surely one to be Mindful of concerning a Corrective Move on the IntraDay basis, so we will check in after the 6:30 GMT “Currency Majors Technical Perspective” Report during my next Blog Update.

Allow me to express my sincerest Appreciation to all of you who follow the “Currency Majors Technical Perspective” Reports I assist with for our FXStreet Chief Analyst and my friend and Colleague, Valeria Bednarik.

We are proud to have achieved the  #1 Position for the “Top 10 Forex Reports”  concerning Readers and Page Views for the month of June!

This is because of all of You… Period.

 Valeria and I are simply pleased that our Writings and Views are beneficial, and we hope them to continue to be.

We are quite different in our approaches to The Markets, and at the same time, we hold many “Universal” Perspectives that all Traders hold, so we hope we are able to reach many different types of Trading “Styles” as we move along.

Thanks Again, Everyone, for your support… It is sincerely appreciated by both of us!

Greetings again, Everyone!

As our Equities/Indices Correlations move along with some Dollar and Yen Risk Appetite, most Units are moving into Areas of Accumulation after consistent Appreciation throughout the Day and the NY Session.

The Dow and S&P are largely “Flat” as of Writing-Time, confirming a certain “Neutrality” as Price Points continue to “rest” a bit as we move closer towards The Close.

The GBP/USD illustrates these Points quite well from an IntraDay Perspective.

Here is The Hourly View, so give it a Click for various Levels of Reference.

Post-Time is 17:45 GMT.

The Queen looks to completely negate the previous Downleg of Dollar Strength, as Price forms a “V” Hourly Reversal combined with a Double-Top at the 1.6230’s Dynamic Resistance. This is the “Active Volatility” we are referring to… while we have Activity, we are still “caught” in a Range anchored by clear 1.5980’s Support and 1.6380’s Resistance.

A “Catalyst” is needed to Breach the “Neutrality” on either Side, as a solid Break of 1.6380’s Static Resistance will bring some Bullish Builds back into the Game towards the 1.6430’s and 60’s in the Near-Term… as will a Clip of the 1.5980’s for continual Bearish Sentiment.

So… as always… We work with what we have… and various Support and Resistance Strategies would be quite effective here if your Trading Style compliments an IntraDay View.

The volatile, yet “controlled” Price Action here is quite indicative of Market Sentiment as we still work within these larger intraDay Ranges.

We know the “Boundaries” of our Playing Field… but it is surely an active and eventful Game!… to use a Sports Analogy.

Ranging and Consolidating Climates like these on the larger Time-Cycles are one Rationale that Position Traders and others with Longer-Term Views will cite as part of their “Toolbox” of justifications for their own Trading “Styles”… myself included.

Others will thrive an excel in these types of Climates, such as those Traders  who prefer” Fading” Price Action and working in the larger and wider Range-Bound Environments.

I always mention on The Blog that I am “Style-Neutral”.

Whatever works for you is Best for you… Period.

The Beauty of The Markets is there is always Room for Everyone… but Room for No One with inconsistent and Unmanaged Risk.

I will be back at The Close as we move along and prepare for The Asian Pacific Sectors to pick up on the Price Action as well… so please join me soon!

Greetings again, Everyone!

We are seeing The Dollar and Yen continue to Correct across most Currency Units, as well as Gold and Oil, despite continued Macro-Uncertainties about Global Economic Recovery.

Many Units are still finding “Basing” and Consolidating Behavior with Technical Formations such as Flags/Pennants and Horizontal Ranges, although within these Areas clear IntraDay Directionality is being Seen.

Similar to The Euro, Crude Oil is seeing a burst of Bullish Momentum, despite Price simply arriving to clear Static Resistance Levels within a larger Range. The Confluence of the July 2008 Weekly 23.6% Fib Variant and $60.50 Resistance is holding Price to the Upside, and if the Area is Breached, a new “Transitive Rollover” of Resistance-becoming-Support will be in Place, although any true Bullish Momentum in Crude will be considered in a :Counter-Trend” Fashion…even if Price moves beyond the $61.35 Range/Resistance Zone.

Here is The Hourly, so give it a Click for Various Levels.

Post-Time is 7:40 GMT.

The EUR/JPY is indicative of slight Risk Appetite returning to The markets, as we have our Equities Correlations back Intact… not to mention “Cross-Current” Correlations with Global Equity Exchanges such as The FTSE… which is up about 3% at The London Open.

Price looks towards the 130.60’s/80’s Static and Dynamic Resistance Levels, as Price Appreciation pulls out of the 127.80’s to 129.00 Hourly Range. Further Appreciation sees the 131.40’s in the Near-Term, while Failure to Hold the 129.00 Handle of Static Support will see the 127.80’s for multiple Hourly Tests of the Area.

If this Behavior is Seen, the Tests will weaken Support and a potential Breach towards the 127.00 Handle in the Mid-Term would be plausible.

The  “Currency Majors Technical Perspective” Report  has been published for Immediate-Term Details on The Majors, as well as the new Installments of The Fundamental Forex Foundations Section for Data Point Releases today and tomorrow of PPI and CPI.

The Retail Sales and Business Inventories Reports will be published as soon as possible, and I will have those Links for you as soon as possible!

Please join me for more Updates moving forward, especially as we move towards Data Point Releases at 12:30 GMT.

In the Interim, keep a Mindful Eye on CPI out of the U.K. in about one hour’s time!

Greetings Everyone, and Happy Sunday!

Post-Time  is 10:15 a.m. my time, so it is 17:15 GMT.

With a somewhat-related View to yesterday’s Ideas about truly “looking and seeing” The Markets, I was struck by a recent conversation I had with a friend concerning The Dollar and all of the recent Implications and Rhetoric surrounding it.

The Topic also came to mind, as I am working on several new Installments of the “Fundamental Forex Foundations” Reports for The Education Section of FXStreet for all of you, so I thought we would address this whole Dollar Debate.

Unfortunately, the conversation with my friend was IN ACTUAL AGREEMENT… which was deeply surprising and disturbing! All of you know this guy is literally the Anti-Thesis of me, and we love to banter back and forth.

Many of you may remember a few references I have made concerning him… one of my early Equities Mentors who I enjoy wagering lunches and such with on various issues.

Here is an “Old School” Professional if I ever saw one… I say Black and he says White. He feels trading OTC Currencies is “The Wild West” of the Trading Industry and will have nothing of it. He is proud to be a “conventional” Stock Trader who enjoys a lot of the “Buy and Hold” philosophies. He also feels The Dollar is not going anywhere… despite what China wants, thinks, or jawbones… and anyone else for that matter!

(In his defense, he is also one of the finest and most consistent Traders I have ever known, and the Foundations I was exposed to and learned from him in the late 1990’s are a direct reflection of his Work and Diligence.)

So we were having this conversation about the Chinese Rhetoric at the recent G8 Summit and before, we found ourselves really seeing “Both Sides of The Fence”, as I like to say here on The Blog.

In Its Simplest Form… as we can have this discussion for weeks, the concern about moving away from The Dollar as The Global Reserve Currency sees BRIC Powers such as China looking to Due Diligence of their Treasury Reserves in the U.S. Economy.

China is, at least, expanding Its Horizons into thinking of “Other” Currency possibilities… such as The Euro… and not just The Dollar here. With Obama and Big Ben throwing money out of The Helicopter, and potentially more to come with talk of a 2nd Stimulus Plan, the continual Treasury Buy-Back Program that is being done is surely “weighing” on all of us, not to mention on the minds of China. This “Pressure” places The Dollar in “true” Decline against other World Currencies in general, simply because we do not see the “Depth and Level” of QE that the U.S. has been engaging in.

The Currency simply becomes more “Plastic”, for lack of a better term.

The $130 Trillion in U.S. Debt is dominating any “Real” GDP at around $12 Trillion, so this “Disconnect” just by itself  keeps Weight on The Dollar’s inherent Value moving forward.

The Chinese Population of about 1.3 Billion people surely is a formidable potential World Buying-Power with a remarkable Savings Rate of about 28% to 30%, ensuring Liquidity for future purchases on the Whole.

***

Now… on “The Other Side of The Fence”, are we really deeply concerned about China’s concerns and rhetoric moving ahead?

Are they truly emergent as a Power of Economic and Production Stability?

It depends who you ask.

 We can, perhaps, rule out some “Validity” here since we know The Yuan is not “free-floating”, so it is like comparing Apples to Oranges. The continual Manipulation of The Yuan is not helping the Case as well.

The massive Treasury Reserves held by China would have to go somewhere, and “logic” would dictate the Funds will stay within Its own Currency as Macro-Development improves. In the meantime, Is there another Entity that handle the “potential” Treasury Inflows that China would be replacing as “sound” Asset Diversification?

 As their own Economy grows, wouldn’t China then need more and more Renminbi of it’s own and keeps It’s own “Treasury Funding” and other Asset Classes to Itself?

Of course, there are many Aspects to this “Argument” on both sides… as we are dealing with a still-developing albeit massive Economy.

I certainly do not have the answer… but there exists enough “plausible” Criteria on “Both Side of the Fence”

that one can exhaust him or herself for a while.

So what did my Friend and I do in this case of “literal” Agreement?…

We split the Check, of course.

Please join me later for Monday’s “Big Blog” Update, as we prepare for another interesting and volatile Week!

*** Image/Cartoon courtesy of BlueWire Studio.

Greetings again, Everyone!

We arrive at the end of an eventful Week, where our Macro-Consolidations and Accumulating Price Behaviors are Setting The stage for additional Volatility moving into next week.

Both The Dow and S&P 500 close at Mid-Range coming off of in my personal View… “Loose” Daily Head-and-Shoulders Formations.

The March through June Fib Variant Uplegs provide Classic “Textbook”  Behavior here, as The Fib Variant/Confluence Supports @ the 38.2% Areas will provide the next Downside Dynamic Support on both Indices.

Here are The Daily Views for their various Levels, so give them a Click as always.

Post-Time is a few Hours after The NYSE Close at 00:15 GMT.

Our Risk-Averse Macro-Correlations look to be In Favor once again here if these two Areas are Seen at The Open Monday, and our Correlations remain Intact in The Immediate-Term.

This simply translates into Three Principles:

Yen Strength

Dollar Strength

Weak Gold and Crude Oil

OK… So shoot me!… there were Four Things!… hee hee…       

Please join me tomorrow for more continuing ”Weekend Thoughts”, as always, and I look forward to seeing Everyone!

Greetings again, Everyone!

As we move about 30 Minutes from The NYSE Close… our first Post at 7 GMT this morning ( Midnight for “Crazy CVJ”… as everyone usually calls me … ) comes to Fruition as we have worked throughout our Day.

The Dow and S&P 500 Correlations keep The Yen Itself extremely Well-Bid… as The Yen Crosses take a Dive along with Dollar Yen.

Of course also as we have discussed, The Energy Sectors are full of Uncertainty as Crude Clips about $9.00 in the last Week alone… down about 12% .

In my personal View,  The 875 Area or so on The S&P is a crucial Area here… as The Equities and Indices as a Whole pulled a few “Bear Market Rallies” that simply may have been Over-Extended.

To clarify my Thoughts here… We simply still have this Wide “Dis-Connect” between our actual Economic Health and Macro-Market Activity.

 Of course… I am in NO WAY implying The Markets are Wrong… as in my personal Philosophy…They Never Are.

It Is what It Is… and it is “Our Job” to Act accordingly with Prudence.

There is certainly a Difference between Mis-Pricing… and Markets actually being Wrong…

“OK…Off The Soap Box, CVJ! We told you yesterday!… Enough of your  Philosophical Babbling!”… the CVJ Fan Club Guys say.

( Is it time already to send them off for another Vacation???… hee heee…  

Here we bring up our Euro Yen and Pound Yen Crosses from earlier, and Price Action on both is rather Self-Explanatory.

Both Units Clip our Dynamic Trendlines to the Downside as Price reaches for more Stable Supportive Handles.

Give them a Click, and Post-Time is 19:50 GMT.

Now… as we move into The Asian-Pacific Sectors, we “should’ see “Bleedout” from the NY Session, and have The Asian Bourses bidding and opening lower… but of course, we shall see… as we prefer not to “Predict Anything”, but use Probabilities in our Favor.

We will take a good look at The Dollar Yen for tomorrow’s “Big Blog Post”, so please join me in a few hours as we move into Asian Work!

I will see Everyone soon!

Greetings again, Everyone!

Dollar and Yen Strength slowly grind away at most Majors and Crosses, despite The Majors still being largely Range-Bound and in Consolidation from the IntraDay Views.

The Asian Equity Markets are down as The Nikkei closes down 225 Points, and The Euro remains under Pressure ahead of The ECB on Thursday. This may begin to “even-out” with a bit of Appreciation, as most Institutional Views will favor a “Neutral” Sentiment going into the Meeting and Decision.

Here are the Hourly Views of The EUR/JPY and another look at where we are on The Euro from our last Update at 2:00 GMT.

Give The Captures a Click for various Levels, and Post-Time is 7:15 GMT.

The Euro Yen sees an Hourly “loose” Triple-Top Formation here, as Price looks towards the 132.60 Area of Daily Static Support with The Yen Appreciation, as Price breaches Immediate-Term 133.50’s Dynamic Support.

Clearance there sees the 131.40’s with Clear Bearish Sentiment In favor at this point… with a solid Violation above the 135.00 Handle Resistance to see any Bullish Sentiment resume.

The Euro sees out Magenta Dynamic Support Line that we spoke of last Update with Precision, so Rejecting or Respecting the Level is something to be Mindful of going forward, as it is a “New’ Support Area.

A Clip sees the 1.3950’s and potentially the 1.3880’s in the Near-Term…while Bullish Sentiment will only be Seen with Conviction if Price can Clear the 1.4118/20 Resistance, and remain above the Area.

We will see how “Deep” The “slight” Risk-Aversion that we are seeing progresses, as we bring in several more Updates throughout the Day!

Please check the just-published  “Currency Majors Technical Perspective” Report  for more Immediate-Term Details on The Majors. and please join me soon for another Update!

Greetings again, Everyone!

With another Nigerian Attack, Crude Oil holds on to Its Bullish Sentiment from Asian-Pacific Bourse Strength, as we all underlying Euro Strength and Gold Sentiment as well. The EU Futures a bidding up as we head into The Open… with the EUR/USD now finding new Support at the 1.4000 handle in Confluence with the 23.6% Fib Variant April Upleg.

Here are The Captures with Commentary above, so give them a Click as always.

Post-Time is 6:40 GMT.

Price reaches the Dynamic Support “Transitive Rollover” from the new 1.4000 Handle-Support on The Fiber, as another “Re-Test” and Breach of the Area will see Appreciation towards the 1.4130’s Daily Static Resistance in the Near-Term.

A Downside-Clip sees rather “shallow” Correction in the Immediate-Term to the Magenta-Dynamic Support Level at the 1.3980’s 5-Hour Consolidation Area.

Crude Clips our Hourly Ascending Triangle Formation, where Contact with the 72.70’s Daily Static Resistance is not out of the question here in the Near-Term.

Also clipping the “loose” Ascending Triangle Formation here, Gold Price looks towards the $960’s Static Resistance Area in the near-Term if Appreciation continues with correlating Dollar IntraDay Weakness.

Immediate-Term Detail can be seen with the just-published  “Currency Majors Technical Perspective” Report, and I will have several more Updates for you as we move throughout our Final Trading Day of the Week!

Please Join Me Again Soon!