Greetings again, Everyone!

We have had some time to “digest” a significant portion of Bernanke’s Testimony on The Hill, as well as today’ EIA Crude Inventory Builds and we see our Crude/Equities/Euro Correlations functioning well from an IntraDay View.

While in the “Trasditional” sense, The Fiber’s Correlation with Gold is always significant… we often see Oil playing a solid Role here as well due primarily to the Euro moving “loosely but generally” In Tandem with the NYMEX WTI Continuous Contract ( The West Texas Intermediate Futures).

The Rationale behind this is rather extensive to get into, but for the sake of my point… we can use the Classic “Inversion” of Strong Oil and Gold equalling A Weak Dollar… since both Commodities are bought and sold in Dollars.

This translates for us with a Rising EUR/USD correlating very highly with a Rising Oil Price… since both are seeing a Weakening Dollar.

Relative Performance so far today with The Dollar sees Crude off about 0.30 %, while the Euro is up about 0.10%.

OK… all of you know me very well by now and if I do not stop… I will start going into my “CVJ’s Bag of Analogies”, and ramble for days…so let’s move on to The Captures!   

Here we have The Hourly Views of both Units, where we can see how tightly Price is correlating on the IntraDay Basis… literally right down to The Wicks and “Directionality” of Support and Resistance Levels.

Give The Captures a Click, as always… and Post-Time is 18:30 GMT.

Of course… time for one of my “Rhetorical” Questions!

“Is this a Euro and Crude Move here?… or are we seeing The Dollar driving these two Ships…”

I have my Views… but what are yours?… Please feel free to Comment, as always!

As always, more Updates to come… so please join me after The NYSE Close, and we can check on those larger Equity and Index Correlations as well!

Greetings again, Everyone!

We close The NYSE in Positive Territory with The Dow and The S&P… as The Nikkei Futures look Well-Bid to open and continue on with the Global Equity Momentum.

Crude levels out at the massive $60.00 Handle, while Gold pulls back off of $921.65 Dynamic Resistance.

The Euro looks to take our earlier Flag Opportunity and finally Clip the 1.4000 Handle to form that “Transitive Rollover” area we were attempting to reach earlier in The Day.

We can now use a L.R. Channel as we work the Counter-Trend here on the Hourly Time -Cycle.

Price Appreciation will continue with Bullish Sentiment on the whole, as long as The Equities Correlation remains Intact.

The Next Focus is on the 1.4040’s Resistance, followed by 1.4072 where if Met and Held… an Hourly Double-Top will be In Place if Price is not breached through to the 1.4100 Handle.

Here is The Hourly Capture so give it a Click for Levels, as always.

Post-Time is 23:40 GMT.

Please join me again for more Updates as we move along, and check in on how The Currency Units are progressing in The Asian-Pacific Sectors!

UPDATE @ 1:30 GMT!

The Euro begins to retrace a bit , but still holds the integrity of The Channel. The 1.3940’s would be the next Area of Focus of Price Behavior continues.

We will check in with another Blog Update after The “Currency Majors Technical Perspective” Report at 6:30 GMT.

The two Major additions to The “Fundamental Forex Foundations” Section are now published… just in time for CPI and PPI in the U.S!… as well as the U.K., since many of these same Principles will apply to other Producer and Consumers in other Economies.

Producer Price Index

Consumer Price Index  (for Wednesday)

Retail Sales and Business Inventories will be published and active ASAP, so I will post those Links as well!

Greetings Everyone, and Welcome to Friday!

With a deeply Volatile and Event-Filled Week finding It’s Conclusion, I look to get back to The Majors after my “Continual Market-Traveling Ways” through The Crosses, Gold, and Oil!

As we have discussed, with the extreme Activity and Volatility seen… We will find Price Accumulating into Consolidation…. where we have been seeing IntraDay Flag/Pennant Formations across multiple Markets.

With all of the Macros aside, let’s stick with our Themes concerning these interesting Flag/Pennants Formations to see if we Respect or Breach as The Asian-Pacific Sector rolls on into London and Europe as we wind down the Week.

Here are The Hourly Views of The Fiber and The Swissy with Commentary, so give them a Click for Various Levels of Reference.

Post-Time is 1:45 GMT.

We hold the same general Principles as The Formations in our Last Post…

The Fiber is forming a Bull Flag, so our “Probabilities” lie with Price Appreciation out of The Flag Consolidation.

Price holds the Apex of The Formation here… so we simply look to Pivot from The “Transitive Rollover” Support here, and see “Full Flag Completion” at The 1.4200’s Area in The Mid-Term , of course.

More importantly, we are simply “looking” for The Pattern to continue on with Appreciation and “Respect” Price… Or… We are looking for “Violation” of Price as we Negate The Flag.

Respect sees The 1.4080’s in The Immediate-Term while “Violation” sees the 1.3940’s Static Support in the Immediate-Term.

The Swissy is forming a Bear Flag, so our “Probabilities” here lie with Price Depreciation.

“Respect” of the “Transitive Rollover” Formation sees The 1.0740’s Static Support in The Immediate-Term… while “Violation” sees Price clipping The Apex as we move towards the little Magenta “Resistance Areas that will come into existence.

So once again… let’s see how Price fairs in working withn these Structures, and be sure to stop by in a few hours for the 6:30/7:00 GMT “Currency Majors Technical Perspective” Report where we can also see these Two Units in much more Detail!

I hope to see you soon!

UPDATE @ 6:45 GMT !

We have the just-published  “Currency Majors Techncial Perspective” Report,  where The Immediate-Term Details see Price attempting to Negate the Flags. We may see further “extensions” of Price here, or Accumulation may continue to keep The Flags/Pennants largely Intact and still Valid for Follow-Through.

These are Active Charts Patterns and not Static, so they will vary as they continue to “Build” on an Hourly View.

 Of course, more Updates to follow today!… as we also have both Import Price Indexes,  The important Trade Balance Data, and The Michigan Sentiment Index out of The U.S.!

Please join me throughout The Day!

Greetings once again, Everyone and Welcome To Wednesday!

Let’s continue our numerous references and discussions to our Two “Risk-Aversion Partners-In-Crime”, The Yen and The Dollar.

Similar to my enjoyment and use of Market Correlations… we always must be aware of the “Caveat Emptor” that drives these Two as well: The Correlation Activity moves In and Out of Each Other with Consistency.

In the same fashion that we are mindful of, say, The Dow and S&P Correlations to The Yen Crosses… we are always Mindful of the fact that ALL  of these Units must first “Stand Alone” with their own characteristics… as their Correlating Activity ebbs and flows.

Let’s check in with The Yen as a Whole… and first up is my Friend and Colleague here on FXstreet, Valeria’s Favorite Unit, The Dollar Yen!

( P.S. - Do not tell Her this…  She will leave Buenos Aires and track me down in Phoenix… Body Parts will be strewn all over The Desert Southwest… as I am consumed by the 4000-Degree Heat! … hee hee…     ;-)

With all of my sarcasm aside, The Yen is surely ruling the Day over The Dollar in today’s Work in terms of coming off of our Asian-Pacific Sector Thoughts on The Asian Bourses picking up yesterday’s Bearish Sentiments.

For a bit of Perspective, let’s check in on The Monthly View of USD/JPY, where seeing The High- 80’s Area of last December and January is certainly plausible… ( although this is unlikely without a significant prior correction being a Monthly View).

Give The Captures a Click for Various Levels of Reference and Commentary, with Post-Time being 6:45 GMT.

The Daily gives us more Clarity to work with, as Price remains in a Wide Downtrend Channel here with Dynamic Trendlines on both sides. Price continues to Breach significant Daily Static Support Levels,  and the Static 93.50 Support Area is certainly In View.

The Hourly shows the Breach of the 78.6% Fib Variant of the Full January 1995 79.76 Low to the 147.76 Highs as a Confluence Area.

Surely a very Long-Term Fib View here… although it does remain Valid in Illustrating the Deep Yen Strength we have seen since April of this Year.

My 6:30GMT  “Currency Majors Technical Perspective” Report  shows this exact Immediate-Term Bearish Sentiment with our “Four Major Siblings” as well that we are all very familiar with lately!

Of course, we will see what “Interesting Rhetoric” emerges from The G-8 today as we move through our Updates today… with the possibility of seeing some Accumulation leading to Consolidation at least in The Immediate-Term across The Markets.

If The Yen is any Bellwether of Indication though… The Idea looks to be off in the Distance a ways, doesn’t it!

Greetings again, Everyone!

While we are at The NYSE Open with The Dow and S&P opening a bit “Flat” inching up at a Fractional pace… we can still look to The Indices for our Correlations over these last few days of Risk-Averse Behavior.

We may even see some of what I call “Typical Tuesday Corrections” that we have seen over the past several months…where we have significant Depreciation across many Currency Units and Commodities… ( although as we have discussed, The Major Comms are still under a great deal of Heat…)

Testing various Levels across most Markets are still “The Plays of the Day”, and our two Major Yen Crosses are no different.

( Just as an Indication of this thought… we are already down after 30 minutes of The Open… )

So we check in with EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY on The Hourly Views, as it will be interesting to see where we end up later in the Day concerning our Macro-Correlations.

Here are The Captures for a Click with Commentary above, and Post-Time is 14:00 GMT.

While very Short-Term Corrective Appreciation may be seen across most Yen Crosses, we are still in Risk-Aversion Mode, so be sure to watch those Counter-Positions that you may favor. The Yen has been a bit more “Elusive” than The Dollar in this Area.

The EUR/JPY gives us an IntraDay Wedge Pattern to work with here, capped by out Longer-Term Channel Line. The Key in my personal View, will be to see if Price can Breach the Lower Trendline and move South through the 132.40’s. If this is the Case, than it open up the Mid-131’s in The near-Term as we monitor The Indices for Correlation.

The GBP/JPY also presents a little Continuation Wedge-Like Behavior here, where the 154.40’s “Transitive Rollover” will be The “Make or Break” Scenario IntraDay for the next few hours. 

The Weekly 38.2% Fibonaci Confluence with Static Resistance will be a Key Area to Breach out of the current Depreciation., although Price is already Negating our Lower “Wedge” Trendline as the 153.00 Handle becomes attractive in The Immediate-Term.

As always, more Updates to follow as we move around in our still large Macro-Ranges for all of you Longer-Time Cycle Viewers ( like myself ), and as always, check in with the IntraDay Views for our Shorter-Term Friends!

It is once again going to be an interesting Day, so please join me soon!

Greetings, Everyone and Welcome to Monday!

We have a somewhat-”rushed” Week with the U.S. 4th of July Independence Day on Saturday, which brings ADP, NFP, Jobless Claims and such a day earlier than usual as U.S. Markets will be closed for The Holiday.

The ECB holds the Majority of Focus this Week outside of the U.S. Data, where Inflationary Concerns still “haunt” The ECB, and their “Independent Stance” in general in relation to other Global Central Banks.

Dollar Strength sees some Daylight to begin the Week, as Crude Oil and Gold open lower.

Let’s check in with The EUR/USD, so here is the Hourly with Commentary above.

Give it a Click for Levels of Reference, and Post-Time is 2:10 GMT.

The Fiber sees Consolidation on the Hourly View ( nothing new here… since I have written and you have read this Word 4 million times in the past few weeks… hee hee… ).

Price simply cannot maintain and Hold above the 1.4100 Handle, as a fall into Accumulation @ the 1.4050’s  leads us into the “Confluence” Area of the 1.400 Handle with Dynamic Magenta 1.3980’s/1.400’s Support Area.

The 1.3880’s “Box” sees the next area of Support, where Bullish Sentiment is largely lost In Favor of Bearish Sentiment with a Clean Break.

It is early in The Asian-Pacific Sectors, and early in the Week… so we check back in with plenty of Updates for you!

In the Interim, please join me at the 6:30 GMT Hour for our European Session Installment of the “Currency Majors Technical Perspective” Report, and see how we have progressed so far!

See Everyone Soon!

Greetings, Everyone and Happy Saturday!

Writing-Time is 6:30 a.m. for me… so it is 13:30 GMT.

( It still amazes me how I have mastered World-Time Factors… considering my State of Arizona does not observe Daylight Savings Time. The World moves around Us and We sit still… melting in this Pizza Oven of Heat!… hee hee… )

My apologies for the lack of Update at the NY Close yesterday, so I will make it up to all of you right now!

Ready?

Here it is:

1) Range Bound

2) Consolidation

3) Dollar on The Immediate-Term Chopping Block

OK excuse my sarcasm here… because as is usually the case… when we have the “larger” Macro-Events such as GDP or a Central Bank Meeting and Decision… the Waters do tend to calm a bit out on the Larger Time -Cycles.

We wait with somewhat “Calm” Seas until the approaching Storms bring a Tsunami… or a little 3-Foot Wave that you cannot Surf on.

The Swiss National Bank Intervention, and corresponding Behavior in The Swissy and The Euro Swiss dominated any FMOC Activity and other Data Points in my personal View… which does bring up an interesting point!

Always Expect The Unexpected!

While the majority of Focus for ALL  Financial Markets was on The Fed… the previous Rhetoric and Actions of The SNB were overlooked as a “Precedence of Intervention”, if you will.

In many Instances, Central Banks will “intervene” more than once as the Monitor and Adjust Monetary Policy that suits their Needs.

The SNB certainly was not using C.I.A. ”Covert Black Ops” here… their Intentions were clear back in March, as well as “subtle Hints” over further Activity simply by the Clear and Symmetrical Range the EUR/CHF worked in over the following few months.

Here is The Daily View as Illustration… where if The Swissy continues Its Corrective Behavior… a Massive Double-Top here will be clearly moving towards Completion in the Mid-Term.

Central Banks will usually not simply act once and leave the Process alone, as we mentioned.

The RBA is now-notorious for Its “failed attempts” at previous Interventions of The Aussie Dollar that went largely ignored in recent years… and of course, we cannot forget about the “Masters of Failed Intervention”, The Bank of Japan!

The only Central Bank of The G8 tied directly to their own Government give the BoJ much less “Independence”, so they tend to “over-compensate” by consistent “Jawboning” of The Yen and Rhetoric of their overall Economic health.

As I have always said personally…The BoJ jawbones their Currency out the Front Door… while loading the Export Ships out the Back Door… loving every minute of it!

Perhaps a bit facetious on my part… but you see my Point.  

We can even use this Analogy of “Failed Mis-Guided Unexpected” Rhetoric with Ben Bernanke in “The Chair” with his Testimony.

With the Oversight Committee’s “Hell-Bent-For-Leather” Focus on the BoA/Merrill Deal in December… I would like to move through all of the “He-said-We-Said” and pose a some simple Questions/Thoughts:

Why all of the emphasis on how this Deal played out and “Fighting in the Sandbox” Rhetoric of Bernanke’s alleged Cover-Up and this and that?… all for the 55 Billion in TARP Funds?

Where is the Rhetoric and Front-Page News for the 180 Billion to AIG ???… Remember them ???

So let’s focus instead on the “politically correct” recent Legislation of highly-debateable Energy Bill… and let the 235 Billion here just remain “In Limbo” as this Administration buries Itself in Its Continual Struggle with “Too Many Pans on the Fire”.

Have a fine Day, and please join me tomorrow!

Greetings again, Everyone!

We see U.S. Futures bidding lower and set for a lower Open in about 15 minutes, as the People’s Bank of China reiterates, yet again, a “Call” and Statement for concern on The U.S. Dollar Continuance as the World’s Reserve Currency.

This type of “Jawboning” Verbal Intervention is never good for The Buck… and China is notorious for manipulating and pegging their own Currency… both “directly” and “indirectly”… such as in this case.

The PBoC would favor more Currency Diversification overall… with a preference at this point towards The Euro and slightly away from The Dollar.

Also increasing Risk Appetite at this point is the PCE Numbers of increasing Spending due to The Stimulus, as well as a  ”Reversal” of The Swissy moving higher and literally eradicating the recent Interventions of The Swiss National Bank.

Here are The Fiber and The Swissy on the Hourly Views, so give The Captures a Click for various Levels.

( Post-Time is now about an hour after The NYSE Open at 14:30 GMT. )

The Fiber looks to Bounce from the 1.4050’s Dynamic Support “Transitive Rollover” Area, as Dollar Weakness continues on the Near-Term.  As we spoke of last evening… the 1.41 30’s is the next Area of resistance to be Seen on Price Appreciation.

The Swissy sees Strength and is “hovering” at the 1.0860’s Confluence Support with the 23.6% Weekly April Fib Variant. Continuation with the Adherence to the Downtrend Line should see a Clip below the 1.0820’s.

Please join me again for more Updates to come, as always!

See You Soon!

Greetings, Everyone and Welcome to Wednesday… FOMC Day!

While we await the Decision, Rhetoric, and The Statement from The Federal Reserve… most Majors are continuing on with Dollar Weakness, as the Yen Crosses deal with Appreciation of their own as well.

Fueled more by Equity Sectors in both the U.S. and Asia, both of the ”Risk Aversion/Risk Appetite Brothers”  are “Feeling The Heat” as we progress.

“Institutional Re-Positioning” is a potential Factor here… as The “Global Big Boys” move their Capital in strategic ways, if you will, similar to Work on The Chess Board.

I will focus a bit more on The FOMC Itself tomorrow in an Update, so for now… let’s check in on The Unit that will be the most likely “effected” in terms of Market Volume… The Euro.

One interesting aspect of the Dollar Weakness/Euro Strength is the Idea of another Stimulus Package not being needed by the Powers-At Large…. but even more importantly for our current FOMC concerns is the likelihood of ANYTHING being done with Rates is rather low… in my personal View.

Let’s take a look at the Hourly Chart and see where we are concerning if the actual Rally of Appreciation is sustainable in the Immediate-Term for Asian Session Work.

Give the Capture a Click for various Levels, and Commentary above as always.

Post-Time is 1:50 GMT.

On the Hourly View, the Deep Appreciation is looking towards a potential Hourly Double-Top Formation if the 1.4100 Handle cannot be Clipped and Held in the Immediate-Term.

Corrective Behavior see the Clear Support Areas of 1.4000 to 1.3950… as in many steep Inclines and Declines in Price will see the “Round Numbers Theories” come into View as logical Areas of Support and Resistance “Anchors”.

A Break of The Resistance Area sees the 1.4170’s in the Near-Term as Price continues to Appreciate.

Of course, we will focus on The Unit through the Day tomorrow along with a few others, as we move into increasingly “Quiet Muted” Price Action.

( Here is another shameless Promotion for those who have not seen the New Section … hee hee… )

A  Special Section I have developed with FXstreet for Fundamental Analysis is under the Education Tab of the FXstreet Home Page!

The Section is called ”Fundamental Forex Foundations”, which will be a Series of Topics focused on the Majors Data Points we see that directly “Affect” Currency Traders and those in the Foreign Exchange World.

The First Two Installments are there… “The Federal Reserve and The FOMC Committee”… a timely Topic we are dealing with right now, and then “The Non-Farm Payrolls Data” released a bit early for NFP in a couple of weeks!

As always, please feel free to join me for the 6:30/7:00 GMT ” Currency Majors Technical Perspective” Report for some more Immediate-Term Detail, and as always, a Blog Update to follow!

Please join me then!

Greetings again, Everyone!

We enter into The European Session with EuroZone Equity Futures bidding lower on the back of slightly Negative Bourse Movement in the Asian-Pacific Sectors. From the IntraDay Views, we are seeing a bit of “Mixed Sentiment” as The Dollar and The Yen find some Disconnect with Correlations.

Both Risk-Averse Currencies see Strength in most Majors, albeit the Swissy is beginning to show early Signs of Accumulation and Neutrality. This may be signaling Behavior leading to Clear Consolidation… that will “bleed-out” into other Units moving forward.

While The Fiber and Cable show clear Downtrends, the Strength of The Yen is eclipsing The Dollar, as a Sentiment Shift develops due to eventual “Muting” Behavior ahead of The FOMC Decision tomorrow.

The Euro Pound is Illustrative of this current ”Easing Momentum” on The Hourly View, and here is The Capture with Commentary above, so give it a Click as always.

Post-Time is 7:15 GMT.

While the Hourly Uptrend Channel is clearly in View… We can observe Accumulation which will lead into Solid Consolidation if the Dynamic Magenta Range Holds between the .8480-8510 Levels.

Continuation sees the .8530’s Static Resistance Area In View with even a Reach to the .8600 Handle in the near-Term… although out on the Mid-Term Larger Views… the .8250’s still remains Deep Static Support due to the “Heavy” Euro and resilient Pound moving forward.

We will check on The Unit as we move along, and for more Immediate-Term Detail of the varying “Degrees” of Dollar and Yen Strength and the “MIxed Sentiment” we spoke of… please have a look at the  “Currency Majors Technical Perspective” Report  just published.

As always, please join me for several more Updates today, as we move closer and closer into FOMC Territory, while also being Mindful of the 14:00 GMT U.S. Existing Home Sales Data Point as well!