Greetings again, Everyone!

We have had some time to “digest” a significant portion of Bernanke’s Testimony on The Hill, as well as today’ EIA Crude Inventory Builds and we see our Crude/Equities/Euro Correlations functioning well from an IntraDay View.

While in the “Trasditional” sense, The Fiber’s Correlation with Gold is always significant… we often see Oil playing a solid Role here as well due primarily to the Euro moving “loosely but generally” In Tandem with the NYMEX WTI Continuous Contract ( The West Texas Intermediate Futures).

The Rationale behind this is rather extensive to get into, but for the sake of my point… we can use the Classic “Inversion” of Strong Oil and Gold equalling A Weak Dollar… since both Commodities are bought and sold in Dollars.

This translates for us with a Rising EUR/USD correlating very highly with a Rising Oil Price… since both are seeing a Weakening Dollar.

Relative Performance so far today with The Dollar sees Crude off about 0.30 %, while the Euro is up about 0.10%.

OK… all of you know me very well by now and if I do not stop… I will start going into my “CVJ’s Bag of Analogies”, and ramble for days…so let’s move on to The Captures!   

Here we have The Hourly Views of both Units, where we can see how tightly Price is correlating on the IntraDay Basis… literally right down to The Wicks and “Directionality” of Support and Resistance Levels.

Give The Captures a Click, as always… and Post-Time is 18:30 GMT.

Of course… time for one of my “Rhetorical” Questions!

“Is this a Euro and Crude Move here?… or are we seeing The Dollar driving these two Ships…”

I have my Views… but what are yours?… Please feel free to Comment, as always!

As always, more Updates to come… so please join me after The NYSE Close, and we can check on those larger Equity and Index Correlations as well!

Greetings again, Everyone!

With the “Risk Appetite Day” we are involved in, a detailed look at The Fiber reveals quite a bit about current Sentiment.

Various Confluence and Cluster Levels can be seen as Price moves on the Monthly through the Hourly Time-Cycles.

Here are the Captures, so give them a Click as always.

Post-Time is 17:00 GMT.

Our Long-Term Monthly sees Price just above the 50% Fib Variant Confluence Areas in what may be seen as a “loose” Bear Flag Pattern.

The Weekly gives us more Clarity with a larger Double-Bottom Formation here that would have given us an Indication of Sentiment back in February as it continued to form.

The Daily gives us a nice Consolidating Range with the 38.2% and the 50% Levels providing Dynamic Support and Resistance Areas.

The Hourly continues to use a 50% Fib Variant as a “Transitive Rollover” point turning from Resistance to Support… as Price continues to “Rest” a bit and consolidate.

This is certainly one of the joys of using Multiple Time-Frame Analysis… when we can find many Common Denominators with the “Anchoring” and “Structure” of Price as we move along!

We are about 3 hours from The NYSE Close, so I will certainly be back with you as we round out this Day of overall Risk Appetite!

Greetings again, Everyone!

We close The NYSE in Positive Territory with The Dow and The S&P… as The Nikkei Futures look Well-Bid to open and continue on with the Global Equity Momentum.

Crude levels out at the massive $60.00 Handle, while Gold pulls back off of $921.65 Dynamic Resistance.

The Euro looks to take our earlier Flag Opportunity and finally Clip the 1.4000 Handle to form that “Transitive Rollover” area we were attempting to reach earlier in The Day.

We can now use a L.R. Channel as we work the Counter-Trend here on the Hourly Time -Cycle.

Price Appreciation will continue with Bullish Sentiment on the whole, as long as The Equities Correlation remains Intact.

The Next Focus is on the 1.4040’s Resistance, followed by 1.4072 where if Met and Held… an Hourly Double-Top will be In Place if Price is not breached through to the 1.4100 Handle.

Here is The Hourly Capture so give it a Click for Levels, as always.

Post-Time is 23:40 GMT.

Please join me again for more Updates as we move along, and check in on how The Currency Units are progressing in The Asian-Pacific Sectors!

UPDATE @ 1:30 GMT!

The Euro begins to retrace a bit , but still holds the integrity of The Channel. The 1.3940’s would be the next Area of Focus of Price Behavior continues.

We will check in with another Blog Update after The “Currency Majors Technical Perspective” Report at 6:30 GMT.

The two Major additions to The “Fundamental Forex Foundations” Section are now published… just in time for CPI and PPI in the U.S!… as well as the U.K., since many of these same Principles will apply to other Producer and Consumers in other Economies.

Producer Price Index

Consumer Price Index  (for Wednesday)

Retail Sales and Business Inventories will be published and active ASAP, so I will post those Links as well!

Greetings Everyone, and Welcome to Friday!

With a deeply Volatile and Event-Filled Week finding It’s Conclusion, I look to get back to The Majors after my “Continual Market-Traveling Ways” through The Crosses, Gold, and Oil!

As we have discussed, with the extreme Activity and Volatility seen… We will find Price Accumulating into Consolidation…. where we have been seeing IntraDay Flag/Pennant Formations across multiple Markets.

With all of the Macros aside, let’s stick with our Themes concerning these interesting Flag/Pennants Formations to see if we Respect or Breach as The Asian-Pacific Sector rolls on into London and Europe as we wind down the Week.

Here are The Hourly Views of The Fiber and The Swissy with Commentary, so give them a Click for Various Levels of Reference.

Post-Time is 1:45 GMT.

We hold the same general Principles as The Formations in our Last Post…

The Fiber is forming a Bull Flag, so our “Probabilities” lie with Price Appreciation out of The Flag Consolidation.

Price holds the Apex of The Formation here… so we simply look to Pivot from The “Transitive Rollover” Support here, and see “Full Flag Completion” at The 1.4200’s Area in The Mid-Term , of course.

More importantly, we are simply “looking” for The Pattern to continue on with Appreciation and “Respect” Price… Or… We are looking for “Violation” of Price as we Negate The Flag.

Respect sees The 1.4080’s in The Immediate-Term while “Violation” sees the 1.3940’s Static Support in the Immediate-Term.

The Swissy is forming a Bear Flag, so our “Probabilities” here lie with Price Depreciation.

“Respect” of the “Transitive Rollover” Formation sees The 1.0740’s Static Support in The Immediate-Term… while “Violation” sees Price clipping The Apex as we move towards the little Magenta “Resistance Areas that will come into existence.

So once again… let’s see how Price fairs in working withn these Structures, and be sure to stop by in a few hours for the 6:30/7:00 GMT “Currency Majors Technical Perspective” Report where we can also see these Two Units in much more Detail!

I hope to see you soon!

UPDATE @ 6:45 GMT !

We have the just-published  “Currency Majors Techncial Perspective” Report,  where The Immediate-Term Details see Price attempting to Negate the Flags. We may see further “extensions” of Price here, or Accumulation may continue to keep The Flags/Pennants largely Intact and still Valid for Follow-Through.

These are Active Charts Patterns and not Static, so they will vary as they continue to “Build” on an Hourly View.

 Of course, more Updates to follow today!… as we also have both Import Price Indexes,  The important Trade Balance Data, and The Michigan Sentiment Index out of The U.S.!

Please join me throughout The Day!

Greetings Everyone, and A Fine Sunday to All!

Writing-Time is 7:30 a.m… so 14:30 GMT.

We move away from all of the quasi-political Rhetoric, as all of you know I can only do those Thoughts in small doses… this is not a Political Blog and being largely “Apolitical” myself… there are about 12 million other Venues for Political Views.  

Since it is about 4000 Degrees here in Phoenix already, thoughts of the Water and Surfing come to mind… so let’s have a look at our “Unit of Surfdom”, The Aussie!

We have seen significant Correction and Volatility on The Unit is the Near and Immediate-Terms, despite the fact that out on the Larger-Views, The Pair is Range-Bound and locked in Consolidation.

On The Daily View, we see a Clear Range between the .7780’s and the .8260’s as Price remains “trapped” at the Mid-Point as of this Writing.

A Climb or Fall to either Level will see corresponding Bearish or Bullish Builds as long as each Area Holds with relative Ease.

The Key will be the Observance of how Price BEHAVES at either Level… does It shoot right through?… or will it hover around with little Momentum Propulsion?…

The Hourly View sees the potentially Corrective “Cluster” Area that may be Seen for Bullish Builds… as Price currently consolidates and “Adheres” to the Transitive Rollover Area of the .8070’s Dynamic Support.

A Clean Break of the .7020’s/40’s could see the .7800 Handle with relative Precision, just as a Break of the Inner-Uptrend Line may see Bearish Builds enter if the .8120 Resistance Holds and Price falls for The Hourly Double-Top.

So while the Waves are “choppy” with Consolidation… A Clean Correction holding at the Mid-.79’s and a Clean Clip of .8120 could see a nice Wave for Surfing towards the Sydney Beaches at the .8300’s !

Have a fine Sunday, Everyone… and please join me later for The Sydney Open as we work into another interesting Week with NFP on the Way, The ECB, as well as the shortened- U.S. Holiday Week!

See You Soon!

Greetings, Everyone and Happy Saturday!

Writing-Time is 6:30 a.m. for me… so it is 13:30 GMT.

( It still amazes me how I have mastered World-Time Factors… considering my State of Arizona does not observe Daylight Savings Time. The World moves around Us and We sit still… melting in this Pizza Oven of Heat!… hee hee… )

My apologies for the lack of Update at the NY Close yesterday, so I will make it up to all of you right now!

Ready?

Here it is:

1) Range Bound

2) Consolidation

3) Dollar on The Immediate-Term Chopping Block

OK excuse my sarcasm here… because as is usually the case… when we have the “larger” Macro-Events such as GDP or a Central Bank Meeting and Decision… the Waters do tend to calm a bit out on the Larger Time -Cycles.

We wait with somewhat “Calm” Seas until the approaching Storms bring a Tsunami… or a little 3-Foot Wave that you cannot Surf on.

The Swiss National Bank Intervention, and corresponding Behavior in The Swissy and The Euro Swiss dominated any FMOC Activity and other Data Points in my personal View… which does bring up an interesting point!

Always Expect The Unexpected!

While the majority of Focus for ALL  Financial Markets was on The Fed… the previous Rhetoric and Actions of The SNB were overlooked as a “Precedence of Intervention”, if you will.

In many Instances, Central Banks will “intervene” more than once as the Monitor and Adjust Monetary Policy that suits their Needs.

The SNB certainly was not using C.I.A. ”Covert Black Ops” here… their Intentions were clear back in March, as well as “subtle Hints” over further Activity simply by the Clear and Symmetrical Range the EUR/CHF worked in over the following few months.

Here is The Daily View as Illustration… where if The Swissy continues Its Corrective Behavior… a Massive Double-Top here will be clearly moving towards Completion in the Mid-Term.

Central Banks will usually not simply act once and leave the Process alone, as we mentioned.

The RBA is now-notorious for Its “failed attempts” at previous Interventions of The Aussie Dollar that went largely ignored in recent years… and of course, we cannot forget about the “Masters of Failed Intervention”, The Bank of Japan!

The only Central Bank of The G8 tied directly to their own Government give the BoJ much less “Independence”, so they tend to “over-compensate” by consistent “Jawboning” of The Yen and Rhetoric of their overall Economic health.

As I have always said personally…The BoJ jawbones their Currency out the Front Door… while loading the Export Ships out the Back Door… loving every minute of it!

Perhaps a bit facetious on my part… but you see my Point.  

We can even use this Analogy of “Failed Mis-Guided Unexpected” Rhetoric with Ben Bernanke in “The Chair” with his Testimony.

With the Oversight Committee’s “Hell-Bent-For-Leather” Focus on the BoA/Merrill Deal in December… I would like to move through all of the “He-said-We-Said” and pose a some simple Questions/Thoughts:

Why all of the emphasis on how this Deal played out and “Fighting in the Sandbox” Rhetoric of Bernanke’s alleged Cover-Up and this and that?… all for the 55 Billion in TARP Funds?

Where is the Rhetoric and Front-Page News for the 180 Billion to AIG ???… Remember them ???

So let’s focus instead on the “politically correct” recent Legislation of highly-debateable Energy Bill… and let the 235 Billion here just remain “In Limbo” as this Administration buries Itself in Its Continual Struggle with “Too Many Pans on the Fire”.

Have a fine Day, and please join me tomorrow!

Greetings again, Everyone!

We see U.S. Futures bidding lower and set for a lower Open in about 15 minutes, as the People’s Bank of China reiterates, yet again, a “Call” and Statement for concern on The U.S. Dollar Continuance as the World’s Reserve Currency.

This type of “Jawboning” Verbal Intervention is never good for The Buck… and China is notorious for manipulating and pegging their own Currency… both “directly” and “indirectly”… such as in this case.

The PBoC would favor more Currency Diversification overall… with a preference at this point towards The Euro and slightly away from The Dollar.

Also increasing Risk Appetite at this point is the PCE Numbers of increasing Spending due to The Stimulus, as well as a  ”Reversal” of The Swissy moving higher and literally eradicating the recent Interventions of The Swiss National Bank.

Here are The Fiber and The Swissy on the Hourly Views, so give The Captures a Click for various Levels.

( Post-Time is now about an hour after The NYSE Open at 14:30 GMT. )

The Fiber looks to Bounce from the 1.4050’s Dynamic Support “Transitive Rollover” Area, as Dollar Weakness continues on the Near-Term.  As we spoke of last evening… the 1.41 30’s is the next Area of resistance to be Seen on Price Appreciation.

The Swissy sees Strength and is “hovering” at the 1.0860’s Confluence Support with the 23.6% Weekly April Fib Variant. Continuation with the Adherence to the Downtrend Line should see a Clip below the 1.0820’s.

Please join me again for more Updates to come, as always!

See You Soon!

Greetings, Everyone and a Fine Saturday to You!

Writing-Time is about 9 a.m… so 16:00 GMT.

We end the Trading Week still “Anchored” everywhere by Horizontal Ranges in most Units… Currency and Otherwise… as The Dollar remains weak against Its “Risk Aversion/Appetite Brother,”, The Yen… while remaining largely Rangebound from the Macro-View in most Pairs.

We have large Triangle/Flag/Pennant-Type Formations of Continuation, as Price sees more Deep Breaks on the Horizon soon.

Despite the Speed and “Spotlight” Momentum of The Queen lately… in my Personal View… It is still  the Commodity Currencies that see the strongest “Weight” of The Pendulum Swing against The Dollar.

On the “Other Side of the Fence”… The Yen and even the Euro still have Battles of Strength vs. Weakness to deal with in more of an “evenly matched” Scenario with The Dollar.

The Yen Crosses move along nicely, as the “Degree of Disconnect” in Strength and Weakness is usually distinct and wide… so when they Rally…t hey move with Significance. When they Fall… they Depreciate with Significance as well, hence becoming Solid Units with Volume and Liquidity.

In my View, the Euro is a fine Illustration of the “Financial Gridlock and Pressure” we are still dealing with… as the “Weight” from the Macro-Level is still haunting The Pair.

From the Daily View, we do have a Clear Bull Flag Formation in progress, which signifies Continuation, but also a Break to the Upside with “Full Completion”, in this Case, around the 1.5100 Handle…which is certainly not In Favor at this time.

Downside-Risk sees possible Negative EuroZone Data Points taking Price to the 38.2% Fib Variant of the April Upleg Confluence with Dynamic Support.

The some what “Indecisiveness” of The Euro is indicative of overall Market Sentiment, and I really do not see The FOMC next Week changing any real Views of The Dollar as well in terms of Activity…. so we continue Onward with what The markets define for us to Work with, as always!

Have a fine Day, Everyone and please join me tomorrow for another Sunday Post!

Greetings once again, Everyone at The NY Close!

The U.S. Equities and Indices come largely “In Line” with slight  “Round-Turn Flatness”… meaning we End largely where we Began.

While Volatility was not largely seen in The Equities despite Expiry today… we can argue that The “Quadruple Witching” may have had an Impact on Position Covering across the Board as we head into The Weekend.

The Key Drivers in my personal View today were Volatility… and Its Father… Volatility Sr. !… hee hee…

The Majors dealt with increased Risk Appetite and small impulsive “Breaks” all of the “IntraDay Map”, especially with “The Four Sibling Majors”.

As we reviewed early at 7:00GMT during my “Currency Majors” Report , we did see initial subtle Bearish Sentiment leading into The European Session… and as we moved along… The Larger Consolidation Ranges did Contain Price.

We know from Classic Technical Analysis that even the most “subtle and tepid” Areas of Accumulation leading to Consolidation will need to eventually “blow off Steam”, as the old saying goes… and this is precisely what we observed with the Breaks throughout The Four Majors and many of The Yen Crosses.

We use the GBP/USD and EUR/USD for Illustration here on The Hourly Views, so give the Captures a Click for Levels, and Post-Time is a little over an hour after The NYSE Close at 21:15 GMT.

As has been the case with leading the “Volatility Path”, The Queen certainly ran with this Sentiment, as an Hourly Bull Flag is now In Formation. A Break of the Area may see Depreciation back to the 1.6400 Handle “Transitive Rollover” Support… as Price seeing the 1.6600 Handle is not due in the Immediate-Term with Sunday’s Sydney Open.

The Fiber sees more Consolidative Retracement with Its own “Break Move”, as we have literally complete Retracement here, that is Negating the Impulsive Gesture in the first Place. The Hourly Double-Top is In Play here… as Price looks back towards Dynamic Support at the Magenta 1.3900’s Area.

Similar to The Queen…a larger Breach of higher Resistance ( in this case… up around the 1.4040’s Area…) is needed for any Solid Bullish Sentiment to truly be back In Favor in the Near-Term.

As is very often the Case with Breakout… we see them “Fail” and Correct back to Previous Levels, and in Today’s Examples… The Expiry Issues surely cold have been a Factor with Institutional Re-Positioning.

Be sure to have a fine Evening, Everyone!… and I will be back with you for some “Weekend Thoughts” tomorrow and Sunday, so please join me for a Visit!

Greetings once again, Everyone!

With Negative Retail Sales Clipping The Queen to the Downside, and slightly “Better-Than-Expected” U.S. Jobless Claims, Leading indicators, and The Philly Fed… we still have The Dollar eclipsed by not being able to really take advantage of that Data.

This is due to a few general Factors that we have been seeing in my personal View… such as the subtle Appreciation in Oil and Gold, and especially The Continuing Claims fell and is assisting a bit of Risk Appetite returning to The Markets in general.

While Appreciation has been Seen at the Expense of The Dollar and The Yen, we may simply be defining “New” IntraDay Ranges here unless Exchange Rates can Hold and Continue above their Respective Resistance Levels moving forward.

We check in once again with The Aussie, and bring in The Euro Swissy from a long “Blog Vacation” as well.

( Our Communications Manager and Webinar Moderator, Maud Gilson, will be pleased with this Pair from “The Chocolate Wars” Posts a few months back…

Here are The Captures for Various Levels of Reference and Commentary above… so give the Captures a Click, as always.

Post-Time is 14:45 GMT.

The Aussie receives a “Snap of Support” in our Cluster-Area from yesterday’s Posts, as Price Clips the Dynamic .8000 Handle Resistance and attempts to move towards .8070’s Static Resistance in the Immediate-Term.

A Clearance of The Area with a Hold of “Transitive Rollover” Resistance-becoming-Support will complete a “Loose” Double Bottoming Formation from .7870’s Dynamic Support behaving with “Basing” Sentiment.

The EUR/CHF is riding the Direct Intervention of The Swiss National Bank as well as The Bank of International Settlements scooping up Euro Swissy after the SNB Meeting… as The SNB Itself seeks to Buy Swissy Bonds having a Direct Correlative Effect on clipping Swissy Strength against The Euro and The Dollar.

Price is prepared to Clip Static Resistance right at the 1.5120’s Area coming off of the Deep Beak with the Macro-Activity two Hours prior. Having the previous Momentum still “Built-In” to Price… Appreciation “north” to the 1.5220’s Resistance is possible… although a Visit back to previous 1.500’s Support is more ”Favorable” in the Immediate-Term. 

Of course… Please join me for more Updates as we move along, and see if these “new” Range-Areas do, in fact, develop… or if we simply see Rejection or Resumption of the overall Macro-Trends!

I hope to See Everyone Soon!