Greetings Everyone, and Welcome to Thursday!

We look a bit ahead today and tomorrow with some significant Data Point Releases that may give The Queen some Impetus to really break it’s larger Time-Cycle Areas of Consolidation.

Retail Sales out of The U.K. brings the spotlight to The Queen, as Consensus calls for a slight Build in Retail Sales… despite the very fragile British Consumer Sentiment Outlook.

(For additional Information on this Data Point, please have a look at “Retail Sales” , among my other Releases, in the new “Fundamental Forex Foundations” Section).

Preliminary GDP is to follow on Friday, which is also looking for a Positive Build… however so slightly it may be… and we will get to this Release in a later Post.

Even with the relatively “Positive” Sentiment out of The MPC, we are still working a 6-Week Range on The Daily View… with Static Support at the 1.6000 Handle and Resistance at the 1.6600 Handle.

I also have a “Mid-Term Dynamic Range” here that will give us a bit more Clarity with Dynamic Support at 1.62000 and Dynamic Resistance at  about 1.6665… although we can still see a rather “Clean” Range of Behavior here.

Give The Captures a Click as always, and Post-Time is 2:00 GMT.

The Hourly View for all of my IntraDay Friends provides a bit more Short-Term Probability with a decent 150-Pip Range to the Downside, and a Dynamic Support Area with 1.6440 Magenta Trendline of the Daily Dynamic Channel to “Bounce” off of if the Area holds for Price Appreciation.

It will be interesting to see if the “slightly positive” Consensus of Retail Sales will actually move the Unit into one of these two “Scenarios”… or if we may simply get a purely Technical Move to simply get out of The larger Range Itself.

Just like The Queen Herself… Price can also be a bit “Impatient”, can’t it!       

We will check back with plenty of more Updates, so please feel free to join me!

Greetings again, Everyone!

We have had some time to “digest” a significant portion of Bernanke’s Testimony on The Hill, as well as today’ EIA Crude Inventory Builds and we see our Crude/Equities/Euro Correlations functioning well from an IntraDay View.

While in the “Trasditional” sense, The Fiber’s Correlation with Gold is always significant… we often see Oil playing a solid Role here as well due primarily to the Euro moving “loosely but generally” In Tandem with the NYMEX WTI Continuous Contract ( The West Texas Intermediate Futures).

The Rationale behind this is rather extensive to get into, but for the sake of my point… we can use the Classic “Inversion” of Strong Oil and Gold equalling A Weak Dollar… since both Commodities are bought and sold in Dollars.

This translates for us with a Rising EUR/USD correlating very highly with a Rising Oil Price… since both are seeing a Weakening Dollar.

Relative Performance so far today with The Dollar sees Crude off about 0.30 %, while the Euro is up about 0.10%.

OK… all of you know me very well by now and if I do not stop… I will start going into my “CVJ’s Bag of Analogies”, and ramble for days…so let’s move on to The Captures!   

Here we have The Hourly Views of both Units, where we can see how tightly Price is correlating on the IntraDay Basis… literally right down to The Wicks and “Directionality” of Support and Resistance Levels.

Give The Captures a Click, as always… and Post-Time is 18:30 GMT.

Of course… time for one of my “Rhetorical” Questions!

“Is this a Euro and Crude Move here?… or are we seeing The Dollar driving these two Ships…”

I have my Views… but what are yours?… Please feel free to Comment, as always!

As always, more Updates to come… so please join me after The NYSE Close, and we can check on those larger Equity and Index Correlations as well!

Greetings again, Everyone!

We arrive about 75 Minutes into The NYSE Open where the Dow and S&P Indices are varying from largely “Flat” to a bit of early Gains. Bernanke’s continued Testimony today will continue to play a large part in Equity sentiment today, as will the continued Roll-Outs during Earnings Season.

Our Thought on the MPC Minutes out of The Bank of England came to fruition as both Dynamic and Static Support Levels were hit, and Price Appreciation immediately cam back in to secure the same Levels once again.

Here are The Captures of both for a quick Reference, so give them a Click… and Post-Time is 14:45 GMT.

The Queen met and surpassed Lower static Support at the 1.6330’s where Price Appreciation on Prime Minister Brown’s and The BoE’s Rhetoric for a more “positive outlook” on The U.K. Economy provided the Impetus here. Our thoughts on the “decreasing likelihood” of additional Quantitative Easing gave he Pound a boost here… as even several hours later…we still “Anchor” at the 1.6380’s/1.6400 Supportive Areas.

As in our Pre-MPC Post last evening… The Pound Yen is literally taking The Queen’s lead here with a step of Depreciation to the lower 152.30’s Static Support back to the 153.20’s and finding “Safe Harbor” there for now.

In turning to The Euro… in my personal View the most “Directionless” Unit around… a “Catalyst” is surely needed to move Price out of Its Accumulating and Consolidating nature… ( of course, my thought here will be dependent on the Time-Cycles you prefer to work on…)

We still do have a “loose” Correlation of Sentiment with U.S. Equities and Gold and Oil… although the relatively “Flat” Hourly Descending Channel give us extensive Wicks of indecision to work with.

The Month-over-Month Housing Price Index comes in above Consensus, although the weak Year-over-Year Numbers largely negate this… so no real surprises there.

We now see one of my personal favorite Data Point Releases, as most of you know, The EIA Oil Inventory Builds… and those Numbers come in with Inventories slightly down while Gasoline and Distillate Builds are slightly higher than Consensus… and we see no real Market Reaction here concerning The Dollar.

All Eyes are now on Uncle Ben as we move along!…so more Updates to follow as usual!

I would like to point out something I have been aware of for quite a while through my good friend and FXstreet’s Chief Analyst, Valeria Bednarik, and her Work along with Alberto Munoz and Tatsuya Kawanishi of the FXstreet Content Team, on the new revamped FXstreet Tools Section and Area!

Having been around these woods here on FXstreet since early 2005… I have seen many deep improvements and changes come and go to the Content of the whole Site, and this is one of the most exciting!

To have these Tools revised and more effective in their Application will surely benefit all who use them!

Here is The Link so give them a Try!

http://www.fxstreet.com/forex-tools/

Greetings once again, Everyone!

The IntraDay Market Corrections we have spoken of have surely come to Fruition, as The Dollar and The Yen strengthen on overall Market Sentiments.

The Dow and The S&P are largely “flat” coming into additional Bernanke Testimony, as we are, once again, dealing with Ranging and somewhat “Directionless’ Market activity moving forward.

We can see with The current EUR/USD Activity that even though we have plenty of IntraDay Volatility and Macro-Factors to use as Impetus for Movement… We really are still dealing with these “larger” Consolidations of Activity out on the larger Time-Cycles.

 Here is The Capture, so give it a Click for this Range we are speaking of, as price currently sits on the 1.4080’s Dynamic Support Areas. Continued Clearance here to the Downside may certainly see a “Re-Test” of the 1.3800 Handle of Mid-Term Support.

Give the Captures a Click, as always, and Post-Time is 17:15 GMT.

The Hourly View sees clear Delineation of the Price Appreciation, as we reverse with probable Profit-Taking and Equities Correlation weakness as we move forward.

A Clip of this Dynamic Support can certainly see the 1.4080’s “In Concert” with the overall Daily View.

As Bernanke continues on, we will monitor any additional Rhetoric moving forward and I will have an Update for you as we move towards the NYSE Close!

Please stop by for a visit then!

Greetings again, Everyone!

With the “Risk Appetite Day” we are involved in, a detailed look at The Fiber reveals quite a bit about current Sentiment.

Various Confluence and Cluster Levels can be seen as Price moves on the Monthly through the Hourly Time-Cycles.

Here are the Captures, so give them a Click as always.

Post-Time is 17:00 GMT.

Our Long-Term Monthly sees Price just above the 50% Fib Variant Confluence Areas in what may be seen as a “loose” Bear Flag Pattern.

The Weekly gives us more Clarity with a larger Double-Bottom Formation here that would have given us an Indication of Sentiment back in February as it continued to form.

The Daily gives us a nice Consolidating Range with the 38.2% and the 50% Levels providing Dynamic Support and Resistance Areas.

The Hourly continues to use a 50% Fib Variant as a “Transitive Rollover” point turning from Resistance to Support… as Price continues to “Rest” a bit and consolidate.

This is certainly one of the joys of using Multiple Time-Frame Analysis… when we can find many Common Denominators with the “Anchoring” and “Structure” of Price as we move along!

We are about 3 hours from The NYSE Close, so I will certainly be back with you as we round out this Day of overall Risk Appetite!

Greetings again, Everyone!

We close The NYSE in Positive Territory with The Dow and The S&P… as The Nikkei Futures look Well-Bid to open and continue on with the Global Equity Momentum.

Crude levels out at the massive $60.00 Handle, while Gold pulls back off of $921.65 Dynamic Resistance.

The Euro looks to take our earlier Flag Opportunity and finally Clip the 1.4000 Handle to form that “Transitive Rollover” area we were attempting to reach earlier in The Day.

We can now use a L.R. Channel as we work the Counter-Trend here on the Hourly Time -Cycle.

Price Appreciation will continue with Bullish Sentiment on the whole, as long as The Equities Correlation remains Intact.

The Next Focus is on the 1.4040’s Resistance, followed by 1.4072 where if Met and Held… an Hourly Double-Top will be In Place if Price is not breached through to the 1.4100 Handle.

Here is The Hourly Capture so give it a Click for Levels, as always.

Post-Time is 23:40 GMT.

Please join me again for more Updates as we move along, and check in on how The Currency Units are progressing in The Asian-Pacific Sectors!

UPDATE @ 1:30 GMT!

The Euro begins to retrace a bit , but still holds the integrity of The Channel. The 1.3940’s would be the next Area of Focus of Price Behavior continues.

We will check in with another Blog Update after The “Currency Majors Technical Perspective” Report at 6:30 GMT.

The two Major additions to The “Fundamental Forex Foundations” Section are now published… just in time for CPI and PPI in the U.S!… as well as the U.K., since many of these same Principles will apply to other Producer and Consumers in other Economies.

Producer Price Index

Consumer Price Index  (for Wednesday)

Retail Sales and Business Inventories will be published and active ASAP, so I will post those Links as well!

Greetings, Everyone and Welcome to Monday!

We begin the new Week essentially where we left off Friday in most Currency Units, as Price looks to continue some Quiet Accumulation leading into IntraDay Consolidating Areas.

The Majors still maintain larger Macro-Swings, albeit in some Clear Ranges moving forward.

We check in with our “IntraDay Flag Series” that we began last Thursday with several Units, so let’s check in and see how Price behaved moving forwards.

Remember, Chart Formations such as Flags/Pennants, Triangles, Coils, Head-and-Shoulders, etc. will always hold more Validity on the Larger Time-Cycles, and on the IntraDay View… they may be a bit “Looser” in Construction, but still hold their Functions nonetheless.

Here are The Hourly Views of The Fiber and The Queen with their respective Flags left Intact, so give The Captures a Click for various Levels of Reference.

Post-Time is 7:15 GMT.

( I hold the same Support, Resistance, and Transitive Rollover Areas on the Captures simply for the integrity of The Flags so we can see Price Progression of our Examples… they will be adjusted accordingly. )

The Hourly Bull Flag on The Fiber was soundly “defeated”, as Price violated the Apex of the Flag, and simply continued on towards the daily static Support levels at the 1.3890’s/1.3900 Handle.

 The Queen, on the other hand, found Success with Her Bear Flag, as price snapped the Apex to the Upside with a sharp Reversal, Consolidation at the “Transitive Rollover” Area @ the 1.6200 Handle, and continued Price Depreciation towards the 50% weekly Fib Variant Confluence with Dynamic Support.

As always, these Formations may Fail… especially on the IntraDay View. In most cases, though… they will find some Success moving forward, even if they do not find “Full Completion”.

We can still use the Flag/Pennant Apex Respect or Violation as a “Leading Indicator”, if you will, of Price Directionality in the Immediate-Term.

As always,  The “Currency Majors Technical Perspective” Report  has been published for more Immediate-Term Perspectives on the Four Majors. I have also changed the Analysis a bit to be more Concise and Direct for you in terms of Immediate-Term Directionality.

I wanted to get back to the true Essence and Purpose of these Tech Reports each Day at 6:30 GMT, so  I hope the subtle changes prove beneficial for you!

As always, I will have plenty of Updates as we move along throughout our Day with Technicals, as Data Points concerning the U.S. are rather “light” in Scope.

Please join me later, and i hope to see Everyone again Soon!

Greetings Everyone, and Welcome to Friday!

With a deeply Volatile and Event-Filled Week finding It’s Conclusion, I look to get back to The Majors after my “Continual Market-Traveling Ways” through The Crosses, Gold, and Oil!

As we have discussed, with the extreme Activity and Volatility seen… We will find Price Accumulating into Consolidation…. where we have been seeing IntraDay Flag/Pennant Formations across multiple Markets.

With all of the Macros aside, let’s stick with our Themes concerning these interesting Flag/Pennants Formations to see if we Respect or Breach as The Asian-Pacific Sector rolls on into London and Europe as we wind down the Week.

Here are The Hourly Views of The Fiber and The Swissy with Commentary, so give them a Click for Various Levels of Reference.

Post-Time is 1:45 GMT.

We hold the same general Principles as The Formations in our Last Post…

The Fiber is forming a Bull Flag, so our “Probabilities” lie with Price Appreciation out of The Flag Consolidation.

Price holds the Apex of The Formation here… so we simply look to Pivot from The “Transitive Rollover” Support here, and see “Full Flag Completion” at The 1.4200’s Area in The Mid-Term , of course.

More importantly, we are simply “looking” for The Pattern to continue on with Appreciation and “Respect” Price… Or… We are looking for “Violation” of Price as we Negate The Flag.

Respect sees The 1.4080’s in The Immediate-Term while “Violation” sees the 1.3940’s Static Support in the Immediate-Term.

The Swissy is forming a Bear Flag, so our “Probabilities” here lie with Price Depreciation.

“Respect” of the “Transitive Rollover” Formation sees The 1.0740’s Static Support in The Immediate-Term… while “Violation” sees Price clipping The Apex as we move towards the little Magenta “Resistance Areas that will come into existence.

So once again… let’s see how Price fairs in working withn these Structures, and be sure to stop by in a few hours for the 6:30/7:00 GMT “Currency Majors Technical Perspective” Report where we can also see these Two Units in much more Detail!

I hope to see you soon!

UPDATE @ 6:45 GMT !

We have the just-published  “Currency Majors Techncial Perspective” Report,  where The Immediate-Term Details see Price attempting to Negate the Flags. We may see further “extensions” of Price here, or Accumulation may continue to keep The Flags/Pennants largely Intact and still Valid for Follow-Through.

These are Active Charts Patterns and not Static, so they will vary as they continue to “Build” on an Hourly View.

 Of course, more Updates to follow today!… as we also have both Import Price Indexes,  The important Trade Balance Data, and The Michigan Sentiment Index out of The U.S.!

Please join me throughout The Day!

Greetings Everyone, and Welcome to Thursday!

With The Massive Risk-Averse Volatility and Strength of The Yen and The Dollar, IntraDay Perspectives surely felt some Heat moving through the most recent Trading Sessions.

We have discussed the Macro-Economic Issues of these At Length all week here on The Blog, so we do not need to revisit them.

In my experience, we see certain types of reactions to Rapid Speed and Momentum of Price Action…. one of them is what I call “Tunnel Vision”.

As I mentioned on the previous Post, The Concept of “Chasing The Trade” comes into Play as Price illicit an almost “Emotional” Response.

As I always say, I do not have issues with any Type or Style of Trading that one may prefer… as long as Risk Exposure and Parameters are consistent for that individual Trader.

With virtually all Units today from an IntraDay Level, if proper Stop Placement was utilized then  a Fractional Loss was had and we move on to Trade Another Day.

The “Speed” at which The Yen surged was only in about a 4-Hour Window, where the 400-500 Pip Moves are certainly not a regular occurrence…. OR Are They???

Here is where my “Rhetorical” Question comes in once again…

“Was The Yen Surge today a big shock and surprise?… Crude Oil?… Gold?… The Queen and The Euro?…”

Let’s have a look and see some Indications of “Market Memory” that may provide us with some Insights.

Here are The Monthly Views of Crude, Gold, The Fiber, and The Queen, so give them a Click for Clarity as they are rather “Compressed” with The Fib Variant Extensions and Projections.

Post-Time is 2:00 GMT but of course on Monthly Views… We really do not have to worry about “Accurate” Time!… hee hee hee…  

Gold looks to The Fib Variant Projection here stemming from the March 2001 Low to the May 2003 Spike High, giving us a “relative” 38.2% to 139.2% Projected Area.

We could have “anticipated” the relative Price Action here… so let’s see how we fair on Crude.

Crude provides even greater “Accuracy” here with the massive Bear Flag Formation as Price reaches the Fib Variant with a Variation of about 40 cents… nice indeed!

… And The Queen?… Jackpot for Her Majesty!

How about The Fiber ?…  A little more “Subjective” depending on where use wish to Fib from… I tend to work with Clusters and Confluence all the time as all of you well know, so I chose both The Upleg and Downleg Variants.

We still get a “Close” 90-Pip Variant Range here…

So there we have it!

By incorporating Longer-Term Views in your Work, you certainly do not have to be an Active Position Trader!

It is all relative, and like everything else in Life…

We can usually Find Out Where We are Going By Remembering Where We have Been…

Please join me, as always,  for the 6:30 GMT “Currency Majors Technical Perspective” Report, so I will see you in a few hours!

 UPDATE @ 8:00 GMT:

The “Currency Majors Technical Perspective” Report  has been published, and we are already seeing signs of Accumulation as we have Hourly Bear Flags across many Currency Units!

Keep an eye on these Retracments, as even on The Majors, we are seeing potential “Breaching” Activity that is already “Negating” the Formations. As always… these can be “loose” Formations and certainly do not have to be “Textbook Beautiful”… as long as they hold their Function.

Please have a visit on The FXstreet Calendar and Home Page as our FXstreet Advisor and Myself bring you another “Action-Packed” Edition of “The Bank of England Interest Rate Live Coverage” @ 10:45 GMT!

See You Soon and of course, plenty of Updates to come here on The Blog today!

Greetings again, Everyone!

I could not help myself with the humorous Title here… surely The Risk Averse Monster of The Yen we spoke of in last night’s Post is still In Play as we come to The NYSE Close where The Dow and S&P close in last-minute Positive Territory.

We have many Factors to account for here, as the 6-Week Highs of Yen Movement is involved in the overall Fear dropping Supply coupled with dropping Demand in The EIA/API Oil Inventory Data Points today…. not to mention of course…The MASSIVE Concerns about Oversight and Regulations being discussed on Speculation Caps on Finite Commodity Products.

In addition, the  Deep Global Uncertainty is still with us as questions of a 2nd Stimulus Package are on The table… the still-with-us Nigerian Concerns for Crude Oil “Regularity”, FX Concerns not on the Table again at the G-8, and perhaps most importantly in The Near-Term… The Equity Market Correlations with Currencies firmly Intact.

Let’s take a look at Crude and Gold to gives us some Insight of Today’s Risk-Averse Activity, so here are The Hourly Views for Various Levels.

These Units technically are pretty Self-Explanatory… as even slight Corrections are needed in my personal View.

Post-Time is right at The Closing Bell @ 20:00 GMT.

Crude hovers around the $60 Handle as our L.R. Channel is still “anchoring” Price… despite the  massive Depletion here of even Neutral Sentiment.

Price needs to attempt to maintain the Level, otherwise a Breach to The $55 Static Support may certainly be In Sight.

The “Uni-Directionality” of Price tells us two things here: Bearish Sentiment is deeply strong ( obviously), but most importantly dependent on your personal Trading Perspective… This type of “Directionality” will not sustain Itself indefinitely…so in these case, we will often see the same “Building of Energy” set up just as strong of a Reversal in Price.

Gold in in a similar situation where it is exacerbating the Depreciation in Crude while contributing to Dollar and Yen Strength, of course, as we revert back to a “Safe-Haven” sentiment here.

A Classic Bear Flag/Pennant of Accumulation is evident here… and a Full Completion “sees” The $880’s which is certainly probable considering Dollar Strength. A Breach of The Flag sees  regaining Dynamic Support @ the $912 Area with Fib Variant Confluence from the April Daily Upleg, and of course… The “Congestion” Zone of Consolidation  may continue to attract Price.

Now… I have one of my usual “Rhetorical” Questions for you…

Was The Yen Surge today a big shock and suprise?… Crude Oil?… Gold?… The Queen and The Euro?…

We will discuss  these Events further for tomorrow’s “Big Blog” Post in a few hours, as well as so please join me then!