Greetings Everyone, and Happy Sunday!

Post-Time  is 10:15 a.m. my time, so it is 17:15 GMT.

With a somewhat-related View to yesterday’s Ideas about truly “looking and seeing” The Markets, I was struck by a recent conversation I had with a friend concerning The Dollar and all of the recent Implications and Rhetoric surrounding it.

The Topic also came to mind, as I am working on several new Installments of the “Fundamental Forex Foundations” Reports for The Education Section of FXStreet for all of you, so I thought we would address this whole Dollar Debate.

Unfortunately, the conversation with my friend was IN ACTUAL AGREEMENT… which was deeply surprising and disturbing! All of you know this guy is literally the Anti-Thesis of me, and we love to banter back and forth.

Many of you may remember a few references I have made concerning him… one of my early Equities Mentors who I enjoy wagering lunches and such with on various issues.

Here is an “Old School” Professional if I ever saw one… I say Black and he says White. He feels trading OTC Currencies is “The Wild West” of the Trading Industry and will have nothing of it. He is proud to be a “conventional” Stock Trader who enjoys a lot of the “Buy and Hold” philosophies. He also feels The Dollar is not going anywhere… despite what China wants, thinks, or jawbones… and anyone else for that matter!

(In his defense, he is also one of the finest and most consistent Traders I have ever known, and the Foundations I was exposed to and learned from him in the late 1990’s are a direct reflection of his Work and Diligence.)

So we were having this conversation about the Chinese Rhetoric at the recent G8 Summit and before, we found ourselves really seeing “Both Sides of The Fence”, as I like to say here on The Blog.

In Its Simplest Form… as we can have this discussion for weeks, the concern about moving away from The Dollar as The Global Reserve Currency sees BRIC Powers such as China looking to Due Diligence of their Treasury Reserves in the U.S. Economy.

China is, at least, expanding Its Horizons into thinking of “Other” Currency possibilities… such as The Euro… and not just The Dollar here. With Obama and Big Ben throwing money out of The Helicopter, and potentially more to come with talk of a 2nd Stimulus Plan, the continual Treasury Buy-Back Program that is being done is surely “weighing” on all of us, not to mention on the minds of China. This “Pressure” places The Dollar in “true” Decline against other World Currencies in general, simply because we do not see the “Depth and Level” of QE that the U.S. has been engaging in.

The Currency simply becomes more “Plastic”, for lack of a better term.

The $130 Trillion in U.S. Debt is dominating any “Real” GDP at around $12 Trillion, so this “Disconnect” just by itself  keeps Weight on The Dollar’s inherent Value moving forward.

The Chinese Population of about 1.3 Billion people surely is a formidable potential World Buying-Power with a remarkable Savings Rate of about 28% to 30%, ensuring Liquidity for future purchases on the Whole.

***

Now… on “The Other Side of The Fence”, are we really deeply concerned about China’s concerns and rhetoric moving ahead?

Are they truly emergent as a Power of Economic and Production Stability?

It depends who you ask.

 We can, perhaps, rule out some “Validity” here since we know The Yuan is not “free-floating”, so it is like comparing Apples to Oranges. The continual Manipulation of The Yuan is not helping the Case as well.

The massive Treasury Reserves held by China would have to go somewhere, and “logic” would dictate the Funds will stay within Its own Currency as Macro-Development improves. In the meantime, Is there another Entity that handle the “potential” Treasury Inflows that China would be replacing as “sound” Asset Diversification?

 As their own Economy grows, wouldn’t China then need more and more Renminbi of it’s own and keeps It’s own “Treasury Funding” and other Asset Classes to Itself?

Of course, there are many Aspects to this “Argument” on both sides… as we are dealing with a still-developing albeit massive Economy.

I certainly do not have the answer… but there exists enough “plausible” Criteria on “Both Side of the Fence”

that one can exhaust him or herself for a while.

So what did my Friend and I do in this case of “literal” Agreement?…

We split the Check, of course.

Please join me later for Monday’s “Big Blog” Update, as we prepare for another interesting and volatile Week!

*** Image/Cartoon courtesy of BlueWire Studio.

Greetings, Everyone and Happy Saturday!

Writing-Time is 6:30 a.m. for me… so it is 13:30 GMT.

( It still amazes me how I have mastered World-Time Factors… considering my State of Arizona does not observe Daylight Savings Time. The World moves around Us and We sit still… melting in this Pizza Oven of Heat!… hee hee… )

My apologies for the lack of Update at the NY Close yesterday, so I will make it up to all of you right now!

Ready?

Here it is:

1) Range Bound

2) Consolidation

3) Dollar on The Immediate-Term Chopping Block

OK excuse my sarcasm here… because as is usually the case… when we have the “larger” Macro-Events such as GDP or a Central Bank Meeting and Decision… the Waters do tend to calm a bit out on the Larger Time -Cycles.

We wait with somewhat “Calm” Seas until the approaching Storms bring a Tsunami… or a little 3-Foot Wave that you cannot Surf on.

The Swiss National Bank Intervention, and corresponding Behavior in The Swissy and The Euro Swiss dominated any FMOC Activity and other Data Points in my personal View… which does bring up an interesting point!

Always Expect The Unexpected!

While the majority of Focus for ALL  Financial Markets was on The Fed… the previous Rhetoric and Actions of The SNB were overlooked as a “Precedence of Intervention”, if you will.

In many Instances, Central Banks will “intervene” more than once as the Monitor and Adjust Monetary Policy that suits their Needs.

The SNB certainly was not using C.I.A. ”Covert Black Ops” here… their Intentions were clear back in March, as well as “subtle Hints” over further Activity simply by the Clear and Symmetrical Range the EUR/CHF worked in over the following few months.

Here is The Daily View as Illustration… where if The Swissy continues Its Corrective Behavior… a Massive Double-Top here will be clearly moving towards Completion in the Mid-Term.

Central Banks will usually not simply act once and leave the Process alone, as we mentioned.

The RBA is now-notorious for Its “failed attempts” at previous Interventions of The Aussie Dollar that went largely ignored in recent years… and of course, we cannot forget about the “Masters of Failed Intervention”, The Bank of Japan!

The only Central Bank of The G8 tied directly to their own Government give the BoJ much less “Independence”, so they tend to “over-compensate” by consistent “Jawboning” of The Yen and Rhetoric of their overall Economic health.

As I have always said personally…The BoJ jawbones their Currency out the Front Door… while loading the Export Ships out the Back Door… loving every minute of it!

Perhaps a bit facetious on my part… but you see my Point.  

We can even use this Analogy of “Failed Mis-Guided Unexpected” Rhetoric with Ben Bernanke in “The Chair” with his Testimony.

With the Oversight Committee’s “Hell-Bent-For-Leather” Focus on the BoA/Merrill Deal in December… I would like to move through all of the “He-said-We-Said” and pose a some simple Questions/Thoughts:

Why all of the emphasis on how this Deal played out and “Fighting in the Sandbox” Rhetoric of Bernanke’s alleged Cover-Up and this and that?… all for the 55 Billion in TARP Funds?

Where is the Rhetoric and Front-Page News for the 180 Billion to AIG ???… Remember them ???

So let’s focus instead on the “politically correct” recent Legislation of highly-debateable Energy Bill… and let the 235 Billion here just remain “In Limbo” as this Administration buries Itself in Its Continual Struggle with “Too Many Pans on the Fire”.

Have a fine Day, and please join me tomorrow!

Greetings once again, Everyone and Welcome to Thursday!

We complete a Big Active Day yesterday, albeit arguably with The Swiss National Bank eclipsing The FOMC in terms of actual “Direct” Market Activity… as The FOMC Reactions come in rather Muted and Benign with slight Dollar Strength in the Immediate-Term. 

The much-anticipated Fed Decision and Statement comes without severe Volatile Activity, as The Dollar makes modest Gains concerning The Fed keeping Monetary Policy “Steady” by Holding the Overnight Call Rate at 0.25%, which will maintain the Level for some to to come.

The Fed maintains Its Plan to continue on with Its Current level of Quantitative Easing, as Deflationary concerns are minimal at this point, and Inflation is literally non-existent.

(Well… we can begin our Debates soon, can’t we… hee hee….

There was no clear Rhetoric on the Future “Exiting” of the Q.E. Policies, (despite the underlying Inflationary Concerns the Rest of Us in The Markets may be thinking about in the Mid Term in consideration of the Macro-Stimulus Policies and Deficit Concerns…)

We will get more Information and Perspective today, when Bernanke hits “The Chair” for the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee Hearing… as well as additional market Drivers of GDP and Weekly Jobless Claims.

Let’s check in on a few of the “Indirect” Units I enjoy looking at in light of Risk Event Data.

As we have discussed on The Blog many times before, an effective “Strategic Perspective” is to work with Cross-Rate Units and other types of Correlating and Non-Correlating Units. We consider these Options as it limits “Direct Risk Exposure”, and provides some “Shielding” and Protection against extreme Volatility and Market “Noise”.

For Example… as opposed to working with EUR/USD on Direct EuroZone Data… we may already have Positions in, say, CHF/JPY… where we can pick up on some “Momentum” of The Swissy Correlation… as well as “The Other Side” of The Risk Aversion/Risk Appetite Thoughts with The Yen Side of the Coin.

Here we have The Hourly Views of The CAD/JPY and the NZD/JPY… which both found reaction to today’s Events with some of the “Shielding” Ideas we spoke of.

Commentary is above, so give The Captures a Click, as always…

Post-Time is 1:00 GMT.

The Canadian Yen sits right on a 38.2% Fib Variant Confluence from the Weekly 9/21 Downleg and The Daily 1/18 Upleg… as well as sitting on the L.R. Channel Lower Line for Dynamic Support.

The Hourly View sees a Clear Range of Accumulation, with a “Quasi- Ascending Triangle” Formation… meaning Price is essentially functioning  in that particular Behavior.

A Clearance above the Magenta Range Channel above the 83.60’s may see a “Speed” of Momentum in Continuation of a Bullish-Reversal situation.

The Kiwi Yen sees a Bullish Climate in accordance with our Longer-Term Uptrend from January ( Once again… a Position Trader’s Dream like the Aussie Yen…).

The Daily sees a vibrant Bounce from the 59.50’s Static Support Transitive Rollover, with a Highly-Probable Clip of the 61.80’s Resistance Area for a potential Triple-Top Formation Pattern in the Near-Term over the next few Sessions or so.

The Hourly sees a s small working Range of the 200% Fib Variant Extension from the March 18th 51.29 Low to the March 31st 56.68 High @ 61.31 and the 61.88 Resistance…where a clean Clip is needed to resume the Hourly Uptrend Line, or simply Invalidate it for a Correction to the 59.60’s… where Bullish Builds may be waiting in the first place.

Please join me at our Regular 6:30 GMT time for The “Currency Majors Technical Perspective” Report, as always, and a Blog Update to follow as we move into The European Session.

Please come by for a Visit!

 Greetings again, Everyone!

Crude Inventories come off a bit  down more than expected @ 3.8M, while Gasoline Builds rose by 3.9 M Barrels and Distillates also gained 2.1M Barrels. Refinery Utilization rises 1.2% to 87.1, as our Crude August Futures Contract remains with minimal Reaction and locked in Its IntraDay Range.

The BoE is concerned overall with a “longer-than-considered” Expansion Policy as well as a Concern for “Inflationary Pressures”.

Interest Rate Considerations out of The Bank of England will only be accommodated on rising CPI, as well as a Conflict with Oil Appreciation being a Factor in CPI in the first place.

 We check in with a slightly weaker Crude Contract, as well as The Queen looking for Daylight towards the 1.6600 Handle once again.

Commentary is above, so give The Captures a Click for Levels… Post-Time is 15:30 GMT.

Crude looks to maintain the tight Range Price is “anchored” in now between the $66.50’s and the $69.50’s on the IntraDay View. A Clip of the Resistance here sees a New “Transitive Rollover” being built as Resistance@ $69.50 noe becomes Support.

Maintenance of the Area sees additional Appreciation to $70-73 Resistance in the near-Term if Sentiment continues along with the Correlation to Dollar Weakness.

The Queen is still caught in a very Clear Daily range, as we are at The “Mean” of the Area, and need some “Outliers” in Price to work with on this Time-Cycle.

The Hourly provides more Specific Clarity, in that we see the 1.6480’s now providing a “Bounce” from Dynamic Support. Clearance will see a Continuation through the 1.6600 Handle… especially if The FOMC Rhetoric is largely “In -Line” with Expectation of Rhetoric and some Dovish Sentiment.

As we move along… NOW  we expect the “Quiet Muted” Consolidative Activity to really be clearly seen moving into FMOC Territory in less than 3 Hours.

While I personally do not expect  any “true” Importance out of the Interest Rate Equation… The Key will be all Rhetoric and Plans for either Maintaining, Expanding, or Contracting the Quantitative Easing Aspects.

We will see minimal Reaction if we hear the “Same” Rhetoric of Interest Rates remaining at current levels, but especially if we hear Q.E. Concerns remaining Stable and Unchanged.

Please join me yet once again for another Update as we see Reaction, check on The Currency Units, as well as The Indices as The Release is “digested”!

I will see all of You hopefully Soon!

Greetings, Everyone and Welcome to Wednesday… FOMC Day!

While we await the Decision, Rhetoric, and The Statement from The Federal Reserve… most Majors are continuing on with Dollar Weakness, as the Yen Crosses deal with Appreciation of their own as well.

Fueled more by Equity Sectors in both the U.S. and Asia, both of the ”Risk Aversion/Risk Appetite Brothers”  are “Feeling The Heat” as we progress.

“Institutional Re-Positioning” is a potential Factor here… as The “Global Big Boys” move their Capital in strategic ways, if you will, similar to Work on The Chess Board.

I will focus a bit more on The FOMC Itself tomorrow in an Update, so for now… let’s check in on The Unit that will be the most likely “effected” in terms of Market Volume… The Euro.

One interesting aspect of the Dollar Weakness/Euro Strength is the Idea of another Stimulus Package not being needed by the Powers-At Large…. but even more importantly for our current FOMC concerns is the likelihood of ANYTHING being done with Rates is rather low… in my personal View.

Let’s take a look at the Hourly Chart and see where we are concerning if the actual Rally of Appreciation is sustainable in the Immediate-Term for Asian Session Work.

Give the Capture a Click for various Levels, and Commentary above as always.

Post-Time is 1:50 GMT.

On the Hourly View, the Deep Appreciation is looking towards a potential Hourly Double-Top Formation if the 1.4100 Handle cannot be Clipped and Held in the Immediate-Term.

Corrective Behavior see the Clear Support Areas of 1.4000 to 1.3950… as in many steep Inclines and Declines in Price will see the “Round Numbers Theories” come into View as logical Areas of Support and Resistance “Anchors”.

A Break of The Resistance Area sees the 1.4170’s in the Near-Term as Price continues to Appreciate.

Of course, we will focus on The Unit through the Day tomorrow along with a few others, as we move into increasingly “Quiet Muted” Price Action.

( Here is another shameless Promotion for those who have not seen the New Section … hee hee… )

A  Special Section I have developed with FXstreet for Fundamental Analysis is under the Education Tab of the FXstreet Home Page!

The Section is called ”Fundamental Forex Foundations”, which will be a Series of Topics focused on the Majors Data Points we see that directly “Affect” Currency Traders and those in the Foreign Exchange World.

The First Two Installments are there… “The Federal Reserve and The FOMC Committee”… a timely Topic we are dealing with right now, and then “The Non-Farm Payrolls Data” released a bit early for NFP in a couple of weeks!

As always, please feel free to join me for the 6:30/7:00 GMT ” Currency Majors Technical Perspective” Report for some more Immediate-Term Detail, and as always, a Blog Update to follow!

Please join me then!

Greetings again, Everyone!

As The Euro and other Majors work with slight Dollar Strength to begin the Week, most Yen Crosses are finding the same Behavior with The strengthening Yen.

Despite rather “Negative” Data Points out of Japan last night, we can recognize that the Strength in both of our “Risk Appetite/Risk Averse Brothers” is due NOT to their inherent healthy Strength… but perhaps more to the Unhealthy Uncertainty of their Base Units.

Of course, Euro Yen would fits this Descriptor, with all that ‘weighs” on the Euro today, but it is more of a Curiosity with say, the “Stronger” Base Currencies such as the Aussie in AUD/JOY and even The Queen in GBP/JPY.

Let’s pull up the Hourlies and see where we are, as The U.S. Equity Futures are bidding lower which may hold Its Correlation to The Crosses as we open in about 10 Minutes time.

Give The Captures a Click, and I have Commentary above for you… Post-Time is 13:20 GMT.

The Aussie Yen finds a clear Corrective Bounce from the 76.00 Daily Static Support Area, which certainly may be Breached in favor of the Dynamic Supporting Area with the Magenta 75.30’s Level. A resurgence through the 76.80’s will find, perhaps, some Bullish Builds coming in from the initial 76.00 Support, and continuing through to 78.20’s Dynamic Resistance in the Near-Term.

Pound Yen sees solid Bearish Hourly Momentum, as the Daily Head and Shoulders Formation is coming to Fruition as Price heads to the 154.80’s “Neckline” of the Formation for Static Support.

Please join me again for more Updates as we move through this somewhat “quiet” Day… where we are already seeing some “Muted” activity in expectation of this Weeks Fed Meeting.

See You Soon!

Greetings, Everyone, and Welcome to Sunday!

Happy Father’s Day to all of you out there who are Fathers, have Fathers, have Brothers who are Fathers, Friends and Colleagues who are Fathers, and every other Variation of the Theme!  

A Special Father’s Day to very recent Fatherhood for my dear Friend and Primary Mentor of all these Years… Ed Ponsi, and his baby Daughter, Renee… as well as my good friend and Colleague here on The Blogroll, James Chen!… and his Daughter of about Two Weeks!  

We focus a bit briefly this morning ( 9:30 a.m. my time… so 16:30 GMT ), on my personal View that The Dollar will be somewhat of a “Leading Indicator” to open this Trading Week concerning The Commodities that Currency Traders focus on the most, Gold and Oil.

The Depreciation Drop in Price of Crude leaves The Dollar with a bit of Momentum Energy… as does the continued volatile IntraDay  Consolidation with Gold.

As we mentioned yesterday… The FOMC Meeting this week may not hold any real surprises… and perhaps some basic “typical Rhetoric” on “Slight Improvement… Monitoring Interest Rates and Bond Flow…”, etc. will be what comes to the table.

Let’s take an IntraDay look at Gold and The July Crude Futures Contract which expires tomorrow ( on this particular Platform and Feed… ).

We can see the Deep Depreciation here as various Levels of Support and Resistance are both Clipped and Respected.

Gold sees a bit more “Noise” with Accumulation and Continuation in a rather narrow “Wedge-Like” Hourly Formation.

We will continue on with these Two as The Markets open in Sydney in a few hours, as well as check on some of The Majors as well!

I will see all of you in a few Hours, and enjoy the Day with your Fathers in Person and in Spirit!

Greetings, Everyone and Welcome to Sunday!

My Apologies for a delayed Writing-Time… we are around 10:50 A.M…. so 17:50 GMT.

We check in on some interesting Rhetoric coming out of The G20 Communique, as the Summit continues in Italy.

 The increasing “Push” of The IMF to be ore of a Participant as The “Global Big Brother Bank” is a bit worrisome for many…

The new Thought of The IMF “To undertake the necessary analytical work to assist us with this process.”… to paraphrase… puts increasing Pressure on The Entity to get more directly involved as a Global Power, instead of continuing to let Individual Countries and their Central Banks handle the Burdens of Solutions to the Global Economy.

This is blatantly clear in the following Statement in The Communique Itself:

  The G20 is ”exploring ways to substantially increase the IMF capacity for concessional lending through the sale of gold or other means, consistent with the new income model, and we encourage the Fund to explore the scope for increased concessionality to low-income countries.”

“Other Means”… an ambiguous Statement at best… perhaps alluding to Outflows concerning The Dollar as the World’s Current Reserve Currency.

Even more “Telling” in my personal View… is the mention of The sale of Gold… as we know The IMF holds massive amounts here as a “Cushion” for The Developing World.

There is “Sentiment Talk” of “Jawboning” Gold Value lower to take some of the Pressure off of Inflationary Concerns.

Of Course, the “Direct Effect” here is Bullishness for The Dollar… but how long can this last?… How long can The Dollar remain strong under the “Weight” of little inherent healthy Value?

This is precisely a Factor for Sell-Off already… the Positive Sentiment is simply not there…

Surely this will have an “Effect of Bleedout” affecting various Sectors including Housing, Lending Practices, Interest Rates, Reserves, and of course, The U.S. Dollar.

Surely The Dollar is feeling all of this “Weight”… and will continue to in The Interim.

We shall see how all of this Plays Out, as more information hits The Newswires.

Please join me in a few Hours after The Sydney Open, as we begin our Week and move forward!

See You Then!

Greetings once again, Everyone and Welcome to Friday!

I have the “Big Daily Blog” Entry a bit early today so I can give more Content as we head into the Final Day of Trading for the Week!

At the NYSE Close… The Dow and S&P 500 clear the Day in Positive Territory, with The CRB Commodities Index reaching 7-Month Highs.

Gold and Crude continued on after Shallow Pullback in the Week, as Continuous Crude on The NYMEX closes at $72.68 at also a 7-Month High and a 3-day Continuous Rally.

EIA is now calling for Higher Demand, which will keep The Black Gold Well-Bid in the Near-Term.

The Higher Oil Price… and Expectation of It Continuing… sees a subtle “Check” of Inflation as well as the Continuance of Dollar Sentiments being “Out Of Favor”…bodes well as another Element in the Macro-Recovery Situation overall.

The Low-Yield/Safe Haven Aspect of The Dollar and Yen that we have seen all Year are slowly giving way towards a bit of Risk-Taking with more Capital Inflows into more “Riskier” Asset Classes such as Commodities.

The Treasury Auctions still weigh heavily as a Larger Concern in my Personal View… as The Fed needs to continue this Practice to be “On Target” for their overall Planned Purchases.

The ever-increasing Yields in Bonds casting a “Shadow” on these Treasury Purchases, the Pressure for The Fed is even more tanamount here for their increasing Treasury Purchases moving forward.

This Primary Component is Deeply Dollar Negative… and is already sensed by he markets on a Macro-View.

We are seeing this already by the simple Fact that Technically… all of our Dollar and yen Strength has been “Event-and Data-Driven”… so it is “Plastic and False”.

It is NOT due to the inherent positive Factors within The Dollar Itself.

We can use The Swissy and The Kiwi to illustrate various “Degrees” of Strength… similar to what we did on our last Blog Update with the Euro and The Aussie…

Here are The Daily and Hourly Views for various Levels of Reference and Commentary above, with Post-Time being 00:50 GMT.

The Swissy Daily still holds Downside-Risk Pressure, as the 1.0755 Daily Dynamic Support is Clipped as Price looks to turn the New “Transitive Rollover” into Resistance moving into the 1.0680’s Static Support Area.

The Hourly View give more Insight and Clarity as Price remains “Anchored” by The Downtrend Channel, and moves in Symmetrical Fractal Formations. An Immediate-Term Bounce may be seen towards the 1.0750’s, and a Rejection here is probable in consideration of The Channel Behavior.

The NZD/USD Daily continues North with Adherence to the Longer-Term Daily Uptrend Channel from April, as Price sees the Daily Static Resistance at the .6000 Figure In Sight.

The Hourly View sees a potential Immediate-Term Correction to the .6350’s Area of “Transitive Rollover” Support.

Please feel Welcome, as always, to join me for The Currency Majors Technical Perspectives” Report right around 6:30/7:00 GMT, and another Blog Update to follow!

I hope to See all of You then!

Greetings Everyone, and Welcome to Thursday!

We have several interesting Factors at Work here within The Currency World.

We will stick with a couple of these Factors… or we will be here for Days!

Perhaps the most Dynamic Aspect we saw Wednesday was the Return of Risk Aversion to The Markets, as The Beige Book Data Point Release gave some underlying Strength to The Dollar and the Economy as a whole… albeit a “Manipulated False” Perspective in my personal View.

Beige Book Macros stated that the 12 Fed Districts ALL SAW either weakening or worse Data in May across the Board.

Production continues to fall or remain flat… Real Estate continues to deteriorate… Consumer Spending and Retail Spending remains weak… and the only real “Positive” Data Point was one we keep Dear to our Hearts in the Currency Markets anyway… The Rising Price of Oil.

This is due… once again… to our “Counter-Intuitive” Thoughts of Weak… or Poor… or Negative Data… However You choose to Spin It!… as actually being Dollar Positive in Reaction.

The 10Y Treasury Notes Auction Wednesday is still indicative of a “Fear-Based Uncertainty” concerning the Looming Thoughts of Rising Interest Rates… as The Equities Fall and still harbor “Transparent Strength” moving forward.

The Trade Deficit Figures were released with all coming in “Higher-Than-Expected”, as Exports fall to their lowest Levels in about 3 Years and the overall 2009 Fiscal Debt Deficit climbs to almost 1 Trillion.

But Of Course after Consideration of ALL of This!…  The Recession is Over and We are Bottoming and Basing in All Sectors.

What ???         ;-)

OK… all of my obvious Sarcasm aside… We look at this Dollar Strength in relative Terms to the Price Action we are seeing… so let’s have a look at The Euro again as “The Currency Volume King”… and pull up a Yen Cross to see how the Yen is handling His Side of The Situation as well.

Here are the Hourly Views of EUR/USD and the EUR/JPY for Continuity.

Give The Captures a Click for Various Levels of Reference, and Post-Time is 1:00 GMT.

The Euro Yen sees the Risk-Averse Sentiment Fall from the Dynamic 138.30’s Resistance Area down to the 137.00’s “Transitive Rollover” Support… as Price may certainly Violate the Area in search of the next Range-Leg of the 137.00 to the 136.00 Area.

This Area may be the “Deepest” Price looks to go on an IntraDay Basis in the Immediate-Term, as we still have a Solid Bullish Uptrend in Place.

 Price looks to the 140.60’s Fib Variant Figure on The Weekly View here… which is certainly In Sight.

 The Fiber also sees Similar Sentiment… as the IntraDay Fib Variant of the Weekly 23.6% Dynamic Support Level comes into View.

The Daily Head & Shoulders Formation is looking for Full Completion as Downside-Risk increases.

In this Case… We arrive at our “Relative Sentiment Comparison” that The Yen is once again… “Weaker” than The Dollar in the Current Risk-Averse Climate.

As always, please join me for the “Currency Majors Technical Perspective” Report right around 6:30 tp 7:00 GMT, to be followed by a Blog Update as is usually the Case!

I hope to See You then!