Greetings again, Everyone!

The positive importance of The U.K. Retails Sales Data is showing “slight” sign of Stabilization as Actuals of a 1.3% rise clipped the 0.3% Consensus with ease. While this translated into a nice Break of The Queen and Her Major Cross into Appreciation… we would really need to see stronger and stronger Purchasing “Evidence” coming out of the U.K. Consumer over a several-month period to really see Retail Sales as a Bellwether of positive Sentiment and Growth.

Let’s check in briefly with The GBP/USD and The GBP/JPY, and here are our same Hourly Views.

Give The Captures a Click, and Post-Time is 10:45 GMT.

 The Magenta Dynamic Support Line did, in fact, Hold for us and become a “new” Transitive Rollover Area of Static Support. Price now clips the 1.6510 Resistance Area, and if we do not see an Impulsive Correction back to the 1.6440’s Levels, then the 1.6600 Handle is on the way via 1.6555 Dynamic Resistance.

A Correction at 1.6600 then has a rather High-Probability of occurring, as Static Resistance at this Level is solid.

The Pound Yen show similar Price Action that is even more “extended” on the IntraDay View as we see a “potential” Double-Top Behavior if Price can fall on the Yen Strength, and bring the Corrective Sentiment further along. Solid Confluence is seen here with the Transitive Rollover Support Area and the Weekly 38.2% Fib Variant that we have held for months now.

The Daily Lower Channel Line may hinder this, and act as Dynamic Support… in the same fashion it acted as Dynamic Resistance over the last two Days of Hourly Candles.

While both of these Units are Overbought on the Hourly Views… taking a “Clue” from the U.S. Jobless Claims and Existing Home Sales Data will be relevant as we see to what “Degree” The Dollar is affected in a couple of hours!

Be sure and check back in for more Updates to follow, so I hope to see All of you soon!

Greetings Everyone, and Welcome to Thursday!

We look a bit ahead today and tomorrow with some significant Data Point Releases that may give The Queen some Impetus to really break it’s larger Time-Cycle Areas of Consolidation.

Retail Sales out of The U.K. brings the spotlight to The Queen, as Consensus calls for a slight Build in Retail Sales… despite the very fragile British Consumer Sentiment Outlook.

(For additional Information on this Data Point, please have a look at “Retail Sales” , among my other Releases, in the new “Fundamental Forex Foundations” Section).

Preliminary GDP is to follow on Friday, which is also looking for a Positive Build… however so slightly it may be… and we will get to this Release in a later Post.

Even with the relatively “Positive” Sentiment out of The MPC, we are still working a 6-Week Range on The Daily View… with Static Support at the 1.6000 Handle and Resistance at the 1.6600 Handle.

I also have a “Mid-Term Dynamic Range” here that will give us a bit more Clarity with Dynamic Support at 1.62000 and Dynamic Resistance at  about 1.6665… although we can still see a rather “Clean” Range of Behavior here.

Give The Captures a Click as always, and Post-Time is 2:00 GMT.

The Hourly View for all of my IntraDay Friends provides a bit more Short-Term Probability with a decent 150-Pip Range to the Downside, and a Dynamic Support Area with 1.6440 Magenta Trendline of the Daily Dynamic Channel to “Bounce” off of if the Area holds for Price Appreciation.

It will be interesting to see if the “slightly positive” Consensus of Retail Sales will actually move the Unit into one of these two “Scenarios”… or if we may simply get a purely Technical Move to simply get out of The larger Range Itself.

Just like The Queen Herself… Price can also be a bit “Impatient”, can’t it!       

We will check back with plenty of more Updates, so please feel free to join me!

Greetings again, Everyone!

We arrive about 75 Minutes into The NYSE Open where the Dow and S&P Indices are varying from largely “Flat” to a bit of early Gains. Bernanke’s continued Testimony today will continue to play a large part in Equity sentiment today, as will the continued Roll-Outs during Earnings Season.

Our Thought on the MPC Minutes out of The Bank of England came to fruition as both Dynamic and Static Support Levels were hit, and Price Appreciation immediately cam back in to secure the same Levels once again.

Here are The Captures of both for a quick Reference, so give them a Click… and Post-Time is 14:45 GMT.

The Queen met and surpassed Lower static Support at the 1.6330’s where Price Appreciation on Prime Minister Brown’s and The BoE’s Rhetoric for a more “positive outlook” on The U.K. Economy provided the Impetus here. Our thoughts on the “decreasing likelihood” of additional Quantitative Easing gave he Pound a boost here… as even several hours later…we still “Anchor” at the 1.6380’s/1.6400 Supportive Areas.

As in our Pre-MPC Post last evening… The Pound Yen is literally taking The Queen’s lead here with a step of Depreciation to the lower 152.30’s Static Support back to the 153.20’s and finding “Safe Harbor” there for now.

In turning to The Euro… in my personal View the most “Directionless” Unit around… a “Catalyst” is surely needed to move Price out of Its Accumulating and Consolidating nature… ( of course, my thought here will be dependent on the Time-Cycles you prefer to work on…)

We still do have a “loose” Correlation of Sentiment with U.S. Equities and Gold and Oil… although the relatively “Flat” Hourly Descending Channel give us extensive Wicks of indecision to work with.

The Month-over-Month Housing Price Index comes in above Consensus, although the weak Year-over-Year Numbers largely negate this… so no real surprises there.

We now see one of my personal favorite Data Point Releases, as most of you know, The EIA Oil Inventory Builds… and those Numbers come in with Inventories slightly down while Gasoline and Distillate Builds are slightly higher than Consensus… and we see no real Market Reaction here concerning The Dollar.

All Eyes are now on Uncle Ben as we move along!…so more Updates to follow as usual!

I would like to point out something I have been aware of for quite a while through my good friend and FXstreet’s Chief Analyst, Valeria Bednarik, and her Work along with Alberto Munoz and Tatsuya Kawanishi of the FXstreet Content Team, on the new revamped FXstreet Tools Section and Area!

Having been around these woods here on FXstreet since early 2005… I have seen many deep improvements and changes come and go to the Content of the whole Site, and this is one of the most exciting!

To have these Tools revised and more effective in their Application will surely benefit all who use them!

Here is The Link so give them a Try!

http://www.fxstreet.com/forex-tools/

Greetings again, Everyone at The NYSE Close!

Sectors, The Indices, and overall Market “Sentiment” are all in positive Territory primarily on the back of continued Positive Earnings across many Sectors.

While we arrive at a 7-Day Positive Rally… I will bring up a Term all of you have heard me mention several times in the past few months.

“Bear Market Rally”.

Are we really seeing a semblance of overall Health here?… or are we simply seeing some Over-Extension and Over-Bought Conditions?

I would lean towards the Latter in my personal View. 

We certainly can see the S&P approaching the 960 Area, but in the “Case of The Correction”, as I like to say… the Extended Price Action truly may see a Immediate-Term Top there prime for a Reversal… hence a nice Daily Double-Top will then be in Formation.

This will obviously translate over to The Dow as well… despite the “Positive Earnings’ Sentiment.

Here is a quick View of The Daily S&P 500 to check on these Levels once again.

Post-Time is 20:50 GMT.

In looking at my “Real-Time” Currency Correlations, we can see some Disparity today with the poor Queen being the significant Driver of Depreciation… in Her Major and in The Crosses.

 While as of this exact moment, Price is beginning to stage Bullish Build from the previous “Re-Test” of the 1.6380’s Transitive Rollover Support… Price is still off about 90 Pips, and about 160 with the GBP/JPY Cross.

In contrast, EUR/GBP is holding on to its 40+ Pip Gain for the Day.

Here is the Hourly View of The Queen, so give it a Click for various Levels.

Price needs to Clip and regain the 1.6500 Handle here for the development of a “new” Transitive Rollover Area, and our IntraDay Trendline here will provide some Dynamic Support moving forward.

If we see Failure, and Price breaches the actual Lower Channel Daily Trendline here as well… then the 1.6200 Handle and beyond is certainly In View.

Now we move onto the Asian Sectors soon, where the Positive Sentiment will usually be picked up by the Nikkei and The Aussie Exchanges for our initial Indication of Continuation.

Please join me soon for tomorrow’s “Big Blog” Post as we also check in with how The Asian Sectors are progressing!

I hope to see you then!

Greetings, Everyone and Happy Friday!

My Apologies for my delay… I had a major Service Issue here, and all is fine and back to normal with The Servers and my Provider!

We jump right back in and in getting my Platforms back up and running, I immediately noticed a Double-Top Formation on the Hourly View of The Queen.

Give The Capture a Click, and Post-Time is about one hour ahead of the NYSE Open at 12:30 GMT.

Price clips the 1.6460’s Static Resistance Area, as we now move towards the 1.6200 Handle with significance.

The Elipsed Area from last Week will look to attract Price to these Congestion Zones, and if Price continues to Breach with Dollar Strength, then the 1.6080’s will also be In View.

We will l follow along with more Updates moving into the London Close, as well as throughout our last Trading Day of the Week!

Please join me again, and it is great to be back with you!

Greetings again, Everyone!

As our Equities/Indices Correlations move along with some Dollar and Yen Risk Appetite, most Units are moving into Areas of Accumulation after consistent Appreciation throughout the Day and the NY Session.

The Dow and S&P are largely “Flat” as of Writing-Time, confirming a certain “Neutrality” as Price Points continue to “rest” a bit as we move closer towards The Close.

The GBP/USD illustrates these Points quite well from an IntraDay Perspective.

Here is The Hourly View, so give it a Click for various Levels of Reference.

Post-Time is 17:45 GMT.

The Queen looks to completely negate the previous Downleg of Dollar Strength, as Price forms a “V” Hourly Reversal combined with a Double-Top at the 1.6230’s Dynamic Resistance. This is the “Active Volatility” we are referring to… while we have Activity, we are still “caught” in a Range anchored by clear 1.5980’s Support and 1.6380’s Resistance.

A “Catalyst” is needed to Breach the “Neutrality” on either Side, as a solid Break of 1.6380’s Static Resistance will bring some Bullish Builds back into the Game towards the 1.6430’s and 60’s in the Near-Term… as will a Clip of the 1.5980’s for continual Bearish Sentiment.

So… as always… We work with what we have… and various Support and Resistance Strategies would be quite effective here if your Trading Style compliments an IntraDay View.

The volatile, yet “controlled” Price Action here is quite indicative of Market Sentiment as we still work within these larger intraDay Ranges.

We know the “Boundaries” of our Playing Field… but it is surely an active and eventful Game!… to use a Sports Analogy.

Ranging and Consolidating Climates like these on the larger Time-Cycles are one Rationale that Position Traders and others with Longer-Term Views will cite as part of their “Toolbox” of justifications for their own Trading “Styles”… myself included.

Others will thrive an excel in these types of Climates, such as those Traders  who prefer” Fading” Price Action and working in the larger and wider Range-Bound Environments.

I always mention on The Blog that I am “Style-Neutral”.

Whatever works for you is Best for you… Period.

The Beauty of The Markets is there is always Room for Everyone… but Room for No One with inconsistent and Unmanaged Risk.

I will be back at The Close as we move along and prepare for The Asian Pacific Sectors to pick up on the Price Action as well… so please join me soon!

Greetings, Everyone and Welcome to Monday!

We begin the new Week essentially where we left off Friday in most Currency Units, as Price looks to continue some Quiet Accumulation leading into IntraDay Consolidating Areas.

The Majors still maintain larger Macro-Swings, albeit in some Clear Ranges moving forward.

We check in with our “IntraDay Flag Series” that we began last Thursday with several Units, so let’s check in and see how Price behaved moving forwards.

Remember, Chart Formations such as Flags/Pennants, Triangles, Coils, Head-and-Shoulders, etc. will always hold more Validity on the Larger Time-Cycles, and on the IntraDay View… they may be a bit “Looser” in Construction, but still hold their Functions nonetheless.

Here are The Hourly Views of The Fiber and The Queen with their respective Flags left Intact, so give The Captures a Click for various Levels of Reference.

Post-Time is 7:15 GMT.

( I hold the same Support, Resistance, and Transitive Rollover Areas on the Captures simply for the integrity of The Flags so we can see Price Progression of our Examples… they will be adjusted accordingly. )

The Hourly Bull Flag on The Fiber was soundly “defeated”, as Price violated the Apex of the Flag, and simply continued on towards the daily static Support levels at the 1.3890’s/1.3900 Handle.

 The Queen, on the other hand, found Success with Her Bear Flag, as price snapped the Apex to the Upside with a sharp Reversal, Consolidation at the “Transitive Rollover” Area @ the 1.6200 Handle, and continued Price Depreciation towards the 50% weekly Fib Variant Confluence with Dynamic Support.

As always, these Formations may Fail… especially on the IntraDay View. In most cases, though… they will find some Success moving forward, even if they do not find “Full Completion”.

We can still use the Flag/Pennant Apex Respect or Violation as a “Leading Indicator”, if you will, of Price Directionality in the Immediate-Term.

As always,  The “Currency Majors Technical Perspective” Report  has been published for more Immediate-Term Perspectives on the Four Majors. I have also changed the Analysis a bit to be more Concise and Direct for you in terms of Immediate-Term Directionality.

I wanted to get back to the true Essence and Purpose of these Tech Reports each Day at 6:30 GMT, so  I hope the subtle changes prove beneficial for you!

As always, I will have plenty of Updates as we move along throughout our Day with Technicals, as Data Points concerning the U.S. are rather “light” in Scope.

Please join me later, and i hope to see Everyone again Soon!

Greetings once again, Everyone!

In The Near-Term, we are seeing “Digestion” in most Currency Units of today’s Macro-Data as The BoE Holds their Overnight Rate and also keeps their Q.E. Program unchanged for now, U.S. Jobless Claims beat Consensus but Continuing Jobless Claims kills that Sentiment, and our “Back-and-Forth” Friend, China, returns to the World with more Rhetoric on Diversification of the World’s Global Currency situation.

The Dollar and The Yen retreat a bit and in my personal View… would have taken place from a Technical  Perspective irregardless of any Macro-Data or Rhetoric in the first place.Currently, we are once-again seeing IntraDay Reversals as U.S. Equities and Indices flatten a bit and lose Momentum… and The Yen returns to pick up a little Strength.

Confused?… Do not be.

One word explains it all!… Consolidation.

As we discussed last night and in many instances in the past, when we see such intense Price Volatility and Momentum, we realize Price cannot operate in this fashion indefinitely.

Just like you and I climbing the mountains, Price needs to “Rest and Reprieve”… have a snack… grab a drink… whatever!

This is still fairly evident across most Units with Bear Flag Patterns on various Time-Cycles…. and now that we have spent some time in the actual “Flag Forming Progress”, we can see these types of Behaviors with more clarity.

Let’s bring in The Queen and Her Cousin, Pound Yen again… since it was BoE Day today… 

Give The Captures a Click, as always, with Commentary above, and Post-Time is right about 15:15 GMT.

The Bear Flag Formation is clearly evident on the Hourly now, as we see the BoE and QE Data providing Impetus for some Pound Strength.  

The Daily Uptrend that we initiated from March is still Valid and “anchoring” Price, as we push through Initial 1.6200 Static Resistance forming a “Transitive Rollover” Area.

Now, “Full Completion” of The Flag will see the 1.5250’s obviously in The Mid-Term… so The Key here will be to see if Price can Clip back through The Flag, and at least Breach the Dynamic Confluence Fib Variant Support @ 1.6085. The Flag will be on Its way again as we then Breach the Daily Lower Uptrend Channel Line.

In this Case for The Pound Yen, we have a more “Subjective” Bear Flag here that is foreshortened, albeit with the same “Function and Behavior”. Full Completion here sees  The 137 Area… surely possible… but Continued Yen Strength in this Sense will assuredly provoke a Response from The Bank of Japan concerning Intervention.

In any event… The Breaching of The Daily Lower Uptrend Channel Line ( also acting as our Flag Top here)  calls for a “Re-Test” of the 146.70’s Lows yesterday in The Immediate-Term…. where then the 146.00 Handle is surely In View.

So let us see how these Patterns fair, and also if we see any sort of Recovery in Sight towards’ Today’s Closes here on these Units… so more Updates to come!

Of course… there is One Caveat moving forward…

As long as Crude Oil continues to get slammed, and adding fuel to The Risk-Aversion Fire… our Two Friends, The Dollar and Yen are not going on Holiday anytime soon.

Greetings Everyone, and Welcome to Thursday!

With The Massive Risk-Averse Volatility and Strength of The Yen and The Dollar, IntraDay Perspectives surely felt some Heat moving through the most recent Trading Sessions.

We have discussed the Macro-Economic Issues of these At Length all week here on The Blog, so we do not need to revisit them.

In my experience, we see certain types of reactions to Rapid Speed and Momentum of Price Action…. one of them is what I call “Tunnel Vision”.

As I mentioned on the previous Post, The Concept of “Chasing The Trade” comes into Play as Price illicit an almost “Emotional” Response.

As I always say, I do not have issues with any Type or Style of Trading that one may prefer… as long as Risk Exposure and Parameters are consistent for that individual Trader.

With virtually all Units today from an IntraDay Level, if proper Stop Placement was utilized then  a Fractional Loss was had and we move on to Trade Another Day.

The “Speed” at which The Yen surged was only in about a 4-Hour Window, where the 400-500 Pip Moves are certainly not a regular occurrence…. OR Are They???

Here is where my “Rhetorical” Question comes in once again…

“Was The Yen Surge today a big shock and surprise?… Crude Oil?… Gold?… The Queen and The Euro?…”

Let’s have a look and see some Indications of “Market Memory” that may provide us with some Insights.

Here are The Monthly Views of Crude, Gold, The Fiber, and The Queen, so give them a Click for Clarity as they are rather “Compressed” with The Fib Variant Extensions and Projections.

Post-Time is 2:00 GMT but of course on Monthly Views… We really do not have to worry about “Accurate” Time!… hee hee hee…  

Gold looks to The Fib Variant Projection here stemming from the March 2001 Low to the May 2003 Spike High, giving us a “relative” 38.2% to 139.2% Projected Area.

We could have “anticipated” the relative Price Action here… so let’s see how we fair on Crude.

Crude provides even greater “Accuracy” here with the massive Bear Flag Formation as Price reaches the Fib Variant with a Variation of about 40 cents… nice indeed!

… And The Queen?… Jackpot for Her Majesty!

How about The Fiber ?…  A little more “Subjective” depending on where use wish to Fib from… I tend to work with Clusters and Confluence all the time as all of you well know, so I chose both The Upleg and Downleg Variants.

We still get a “Close” 90-Pip Variant Range here…

So there we have it!

By incorporating Longer-Term Views in your Work, you certainly do not have to be an Active Position Trader!

It is all relative, and like everything else in Life…

We can usually Find Out Where We are Going By Remembering Where We have Been…

Please join me, as always,  for the 6:30 GMT “Currency Majors Technical Perspective” Report, so I will see you in a few hours!

 UPDATE @ 8:00 GMT:

The “Currency Majors Technical Perspective” Report  has been published, and we are already seeing signs of Accumulation as we have Hourly Bear Flags across many Currency Units!

Keep an eye on these Retracments, as even on The Majors, we are seeing potential “Breaching” Activity that is already “Negating” the Formations. As always… these can be “loose” Formations and certainly do not have to be “Textbook Beautiful”… as long as they hold their Function.

Please have a visit on The FXstreet Calendar and Home Page as our FXstreet Advisor and Myself bring you another “Action-Packed” Edition of “The Bank of England Interest Rate Live Coverage” @ 10:45 GMT!

See You Soon and of course, plenty of Updates to come here on The Blog today!

Greetings again, Everyone!

As we had expected, The RBA Holds their Overnight Rate @ 3.0% favoring their effective 3-Month Policies of Late, although a hint at further Easing may be needed during their “Wait and See” Policy Shifts.

Price simply moves back into It’s Range between the .7950’s “Transitive Rollover” Support and the Key .8000 Daily Static Resistance Range.

Here is The Hourly View, as we have Accumulation working through “The Chop” here.

Post-Time is 7:10 GMT.

The Aussie here is also a “Candidate for The  Directionless Markets” we have been seeing, as well as most Majors as of this Writing… at least on The IntraDay Views for all of My Friends who Work on these Time-Cycles.

With the Aversion slightly and “easily” Reversed a bit yesterday concerning The Dollar, The Queen has at least showed us a bit more “Activity” in anticipation of The BoE… although this is largely “tempered” by The G-8 as well as The BoE also expected to Hold Rates as well.

What will be an interesting aspect for The BoE is the “now-classic” Will-We-Hear- More-Concerning-Future-Quantitative-Easing Arguments moving forward… that is surely The Modus Operandi of The Global Central Banks ( save largely for Trichet and The ECB… some people are just so stubborn, aren’t they?… hee hee hee…    ;-)

While The Queen is currently working through IntraDay Neutrality, She is still largely vulnerable to the Volatility we saw yesterday from The Risk-Averse Dollar and Yen. Any Expansion seen in The Purchase of Additional Assets by The BoE will see similar Pressure on The Queen… and she will once again flounder in “Her Continual English Channel Swim Analogy” that we always speak of!

A Clip through the Dynamic Uptrend Line here can see The 1.5800 Area in the Near-Term, while on “The Other Side of the fence” a Push through 1.6330’s with a Hold will be favorable to those of you with Longer-Term Views towards 1.66… again… as long as Price can remain Above and “Out of The Neutral Zones” here!

Here is The Hourly View, so give The Capture a Click for Levels.

(Also… be Mindful of Industrial and Manufacturing Production out of The U.K. @ 8:30 GMT which could surely be a “Catalyst” in their own right…)

We cannot forget about Global Decline in Oil Demand also playing a Role here… having an “Indirect Effect” on most Currency Units, thereby keeping The Dollar and Yen clearly In View.

The “Neutrality” we spoke of is clearly evident with my just-published “Currency Majors Technical Perspective” Report, as the lack of significant Conviction in our “Four Sibling” Units is seen.

(Writing-Time was a bit early for me for today’s Report, so Price Points will be different… but Overall Sentiment remains Intact.)

As always, I will have plenty of Updates to come for You… as we see if some “Catalysts” will come our way as we get closer to The G-8!

( China’s Rhetoric that we discussed in our previous Post is still a Factor here… so we will certainly monitor that Situation moving forward! )