Posted on May 27, 2009 at 8:23 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »

 

Greetings Again, Everyone!

We see plenty of Weight providing Pressure to the Euro as we Bounce off of Daily Dynamic Support @ the 1.3900 Handle. We remain caught in the IntraDay Range, as German Borrowing Issues weigh on the Unit, as well as subtle Corrections in Crude Oil and Consolidation in Gold.

While the Macro-Views of Commodities are surely due for Bullish Appreciation in the Longer-Term… in the Immediate-Term, we are still working within IntraDay Accumulation Ranges.

The Dollar Strength is Isolated in this case, as It dominates the Support-and-Resistance Range of the Euro… but is Eclipsed by a Breath of Fresh Air with The Queen in appreciating to the 1.600 Handle and trying to maintain “The Air Up There”.

As GM seemingly becomes and Afterthought as each Moment goes by, and as more Housing Data is due for the U.S., we certainly have Catalysts for The Dollar to play Its “Rotation Game” back and forth a bit more from Risk Aversion to Appetite… as we have spoken of over the last few Blog Updates.

Let’s check in with The Fiber and The Queen on the Hourly Views… as we can still see the Clear Delineation of Support-and-Resistance Ranges throughout.

Give the Captures a Click for Commentary, and Post-Time is 13:20 GMT… about 10 Minutes Ahead of the NYSE Open, where Equity Futures are Bidding just a bit Higher as of now…

 

 

 

 

 

 

Of course… I will be back with you soon, as the Oil Inventories emerge, as well as the Existing Home Sales looking to have an Impact on The Dollar for our Concerns here… So please feel free to stop by, as always!

;-)

 

 

 


Posted on April 1, 2009 at 10:58 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »

 

Greetings again, Everyone!

Our overall Data Points come in slightly positive as Month-over-Month Pending Home Sales, ISM Manufacturing PMI, and Month-over-Month  Construction Spending clock in better than expected… although the ADP Figures and pending NFP Numbers Friday may simply keep heavy “weight” on any significant U.S. Dollar Appreciation.

As we continue with some Volatility across our Units… we still are “caught” in these Larger Macro-Ranges, as the Dollar Itself remains “muted” with this Data.

The Sentiment of the G20 Activities, and especially the European Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, Press Conference, and Trichet’s Commentary are keeping the EUR/USD Unit in check through tomorrow.

The G20, at this point, may go either way in terms of a massive “Reactionary’ Stance… as in my personal opinion… the Protests literally seem more “interesting” than the actual Content of the Conference itself!

We have not really had any significant ground on the Euro… although on the “Flip Side”… USD/JPY still attempts to reach for the Coveted 100.00 Handle.

Here are the Hourlies again of both Units, so give them a Click, as always, for Commentary.

Post-Time is 16:00 GMT.

 

 

 

 

 

At this point… we simply maintain Patience as Observation continues.

A always, I will be back with you later, or at least tonight, for our “Big Blog Update”, as we head into a heavy Day of Activity tomorrow!

:-)

 

 

 

 


Posted on December 24, 2008 at 9:16 in Commentary by Tim SalemNo Comments »

Happy Christmas Eve !

Our gridlock of U.S. Data overnight with Existing Home Sales and this Morning offer no real surprises and no marked movements for us in the FX World.

Existing Home Sales coming in deeply weak at -8.6% Month-over-Month with Continuing Jobless Claims following it with 4370K…better than last month’s by 14K Claimants.

Is that necessarily positive?…or is it simply due to “attrition” where we know Claimants eventually will be processed.

Our Federal Reserve certainly is not content with their “Favorite” Data Point, CPE.

Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Month-over-Month clocks in at -1.1% off of a flat-line 0.0% last month.

Year-over-year CPE is really the “Fed Watcher” and tips the scales at 1.4% coming off of 2.1%.

Recessionary?…Of course!

Now…Durable Goods and the DG Core come in a bit more positive, but perhaps this is also simply due to the holiday season…and I’m “reaching” here…and it may even be due to the three Cars that were sold all over the country!

Woo Hoo!!!

My apologies for my sarcasm…but NEW Jobless Claims rise 32K to 586K, and last month’s Personal Income and Personal Spending is also down -0.2% and -0.6, respectively.

Having thin markets on Christmas Eve certainly would not help a “tradeable view” here, as our whipsawing a noise is continuing.

Moves of 25 pips..down to 3…up to 8…down to 32…up to 5…and flat are happening all over…just like when you start your Car in the cold weather.

You have all of this “activity” with the engine cranking over…but you really aren’t going anywhere are you!… ;-)

I’ll check in with all of you later with the Japanese onslaught of Data beginning tonight with the BoJ Minutes.

In the meantime, relax and enjoy the day with family,  friends, and cool weather!

 

 

 


Posted on November 26, 2008 at 10:21 in Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »

An update, everyone!

Our Turkey seems to be insatiable before the Thanksgiving Holiday…I guess Durable Goods was not enough for his appetite!

Running away with New Home Sales at the worst levels since 1991…he has plenty of new construction to gobble up, doesn’t he!

New Home Sales off a good 20K since last month, down to 433K units sold.

Our macro Indexes…Chicago PMI and Michigan Consumer Sentiment clock in at 33.8 and 55.3 respectively…indicating the overall economic “contraction” continues on its’ destructive path.

Clearly today’s Data Points are simply more verification of what we already know…that the United States economy as a whole is still in dire straits…hence Global economic health is moving right along with it.

Our Turkey may go to table tomorrow…but with these Numbers today…He may continue to eat in the “afterlife”…   :-)