Greetings again, Everyone!

As we had expected, The RBA Holds their Overnight Rate @ 3.0% favoring their effective 3-Month Policies of Late, although a hint at further Easing may be needed during their “Wait and See” Policy Shifts.

Price simply moves back into It’s Range between the .7950’s “Transitive Rollover” Support and the Key .8000 Daily Static Resistance Range.

Here is The Hourly View, as we have Accumulation working through “The Chop” here.

Post-Time is 7:10 GMT.

The Aussie here is also a “Candidate for The  Directionless Markets” we have been seeing, as well as most Majors as of this Writing… at least on The IntraDay Views for all of My Friends who Work on these Time-Cycles.

With the Aversion slightly and “easily” Reversed a bit yesterday concerning The Dollar, The Queen has at least showed us a bit more “Activity” in anticipation of The BoE… although this is largely “tempered” by The G-8 as well as The BoE also expected to Hold Rates as well.

What will be an interesting aspect for The BoE is the “now-classic” Will-We-Hear- More-Concerning-Future-Quantitative-Easing Arguments moving forward… that is surely The Modus Operandi of The Global Central Banks ( save largely for Trichet and The ECB… some people are just so stubborn, aren’t they?… hee hee hee…    ;-)

While The Queen is currently working through IntraDay Neutrality, She is still largely vulnerable to the Volatility we saw yesterday from The Risk-Averse Dollar and Yen. Any Expansion seen in The Purchase of Additional Assets by The BoE will see similar Pressure on The Queen… and she will once again flounder in “Her Continual English Channel Swim Analogy” that we always speak of!

A Clip through the Dynamic Uptrend Line here can see The 1.5800 Area in the Near-Term, while on “The Other Side of the fence” a Push through 1.6330’s with a Hold will be favorable to those of you with Longer-Term Views towards 1.66… again… as long as Price can remain Above and “Out of The Neutral Zones” here!

Here is The Hourly View, so give The Capture a Click for Levels.

(Also… be Mindful of Industrial and Manufacturing Production out of The U.K. @ 8:30 GMT which could surely be a “Catalyst” in their own right…)

We cannot forget about Global Decline in Oil Demand also playing a Role here… having an “Indirect Effect” on most Currency Units, thereby keeping The Dollar and Yen clearly In View.

The “Neutrality” we spoke of is clearly evident with my just-published “Currency Majors Technical Perspective” Report, as the lack of significant Conviction in our “Four Sibling” Units is seen.

(Writing-Time was a bit early for me for today’s Report, so Price Points will be different… but Overall Sentiment remains Intact.)

As always, I will have plenty of Updates to come for You… as we see if some “Catalysts” will come our way as we get closer to The G-8!

( China’s Rhetoric that we discussed in our previous Post is still a Factor here… so we will certainly monitor that Situation moving forward! )

Greetings once again, Everyone and Welcome to Thursday!

We complete a Big Active Day yesterday, albeit arguably with The Swiss National Bank eclipsing The FOMC in terms of actual “Direct” Market Activity… as The FOMC Reactions come in rather Muted and Benign with slight Dollar Strength in the Immediate-Term. 

The much-anticipated Fed Decision and Statement comes without severe Volatile Activity, as The Dollar makes modest Gains concerning The Fed keeping Monetary Policy “Steady” by Holding the Overnight Call Rate at 0.25%, which will maintain the Level for some to to come.

The Fed maintains Its Plan to continue on with Its Current level of Quantitative Easing, as Deflationary concerns are minimal at this point, and Inflation is literally non-existent.

(Well… we can begin our Debates soon, can’t we… hee hee….

There was no clear Rhetoric on the Future “Exiting” of the Q.E. Policies, (despite the underlying Inflationary Concerns the Rest of Us in The Markets may be thinking about in the Mid Term in consideration of the Macro-Stimulus Policies and Deficit Concerns…)

We will get more Information and Perspective today, when Bernanke hits “The Chair” for the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee Hearing… as well as additional market Drivers of GDP and Weekly Jobless Claims.

Let’s check in on a few of the “Indirect” Units I enjoy looking at in light of Risk Event Data.

As we have discussed on The Blog many times before, an effective “Strategic Perspective” is to work with Cross-Rate Units and other types of Correlating and Non-Correlating Units. We consider these Options as it limits “Direct Risk Exposure”, and provides some “Shielding” and Protection against extreme Volatility and Market “Noise”.

For Example… as opposed to working with EUR/USD on Direct EuroZone Data… we may already have Positions in, say, CHF/JPY… where we can pick up on some “Momentum” of The Swissy Correlation… as well as “The Other Side” of The Risk Aversion/Risk Appetite Thoughts with The Yen Side of the Coin.

Here we have The Hourly Views of The CAD/JPY and the NZD/JPY… which both found reaction to today’s Events with some of the “Shielding” Ideas we spoke of.

Commentary is above, so give The Captures a Click, as always…

Post-Time is 1:00 GMT.

The Canadian Yen sits right on a 38.2% Fib Variant Confluence from the Weekly 9/21 Downleg and The Daily 1/18 Upleg… as well as sitting on the L.R. Channel Lower Line for Dynamic Support.

The Hourly View sees a Clear Range of Accumulation, with a “Quasi- Ascending Triangle” Formation… meaning Price is essentially functioning  in that particular Behavior.

A Clearance above the Magenta Range Channel above the 83.60’s may see a “Speed” of Momentum in Continuation of a Bullish-Reversal situation.

The Kiwi Yen sees a Bullish Climate in accordance with our Longer-Term Uptrend from January ( Once again… a Position Trader’s Dream like the Aussie Yen…).

The Daily sees a vibrant Bounce from the 59.50’s Static Support Transitive Rollover, with a Highly-Probable Clip of the 61.80’s Resistance Area for a potential Triple-Top Formation Pattern in the Near-Term over the next few Sessions or so.

The Hourly sees a s small working Range of the 200% Fib Variant Extension from the March 18th 51.29 Low to the March 31st 56.68 High @ 61.31 and the 61.88 Resistance…where a clean Clip is needed to resume the Hourly Uptrend Line, or simply Invalidate it for a Correction to the 59.60’s… where Bullish Builds may be waiting in the first place.

Please join me at our Regular 6:30 GMT time for The “Currency Majors Technical Perspective” Report, as always, and a Blog Update to follow as we move into The European Session.

Please come by for a Visit!

Greetings, Everyone and Welcome to Sunday!

My Apologies for a delayed Writing-Time… we are around 10:50 A.M…. so 17:50 GMT.

We check in on some interesting Rhetoric coming out of The G20 Communique, as the Summit continues in Italy.

 The increasing “Push” of The IMF to be ore of a Participant as The “Global Big Brother Bank” is a bit worrisome for many…

The new Thought of The IMF “To undertake the necessary analytical work to assist us with this process.”… to paraphrase… puts increasing Pressure on The Entity to get more directly involved as a Global Power, instead of continuing to let Individual Countries and their Central Banks handle the Burdens of Solutions to the Global Economy.

This is blatantly clear in the following Statement in The Communique Itself:

  The G20 is ”exploring ways to substantially increase the IMF capacity for concessional lending through the sale of gold or other means, consistent with the new income model, and we encourage the Fund to explore the scope for increased concessionality to low-income countries.”

“Other Means”… an ambiguous Statement at best… perhaps alluding to Outflows concerning The Dollar as the World’s Current Reserve Currency.

Even more “Telling” in my personal View… is the mention of The sale of Gold… as we know The IMF holds massive amounts here as a “Cushion” for The Developing World.

There is “Sentiment Talk” of “Jawboning” Gold Value lower to take some of the Pressure off of Inflationary Concerns.

Of Course, the “Direct Effect” here is Bullishness for The Dollar… but how long can this last?… How long can The Dollar remain strong under the “Weight” of little inherent healthy Value?

This is precisely a Factor for Sell-Off already… the Positive Sentiment is simply not there…

Surely this will have an “Effect of Bleedout” affecting various Sectors including Housing, Lending Practices, Interest Rates, Reserves, and of course, The U.S. Dollar.

Surely The Dollar is feeling all of this “Weight”… and will continue to in The Interim.

We shall see how all of this Plays Out, as more information hits The Newswires.

Please join me in a few Hours after The Sydney Open, as we begin our Week and move forward!

See You Then!

Greetings Everyone, and Welcome to Thursday!

We have several interesting Factors at Work here within The Currency World.

We will stick with a couple of these Factors… or we will be here for Days!

Perhaps the most Dynamic Aspect we saw Wednesday was the Return of Risk Aversion to The Markets, as The Beige Book Data Point Release gave some underlying Strength to The Dollar and the Economy as a whole… albeit a “Manipulated False” Perspective in my personal View.

Beige Book Macros stated that the 12 Fed Districts ALL SAW either weakening or worse Data in May across the Board.

Production continues to fall or remain flat… Real Estate continues to deteriorate… Consumer Spending and Retail Spending remains weak… and the only real “Positive” Data Point was one we keep Dear to our Hearts in the Currency Markets anyway… The Rising Price of Oil.

This is due… once again… to our “Counter-Intuitive” Thoughts of Weak… or Poor… or Negative Data… However You choose to Spin It!… as actually being Dollar Positive in Reaction.

The 10Y Treasury Notes Auction Wednesday is still indicative of a “Fear-Based Uncertainty” concerning the Looming Thoughts of Rising Interest Rates… as The Equities Fall and still harbor “Transparent Strength” moving forward.

The Trade Deficit Figures were released with all coming in “Higher-Than-Expected”, as Exports fall to their lowest Levels in about 3 Years and the overall 2009 Fiscal Debt Deficit climbs to almost 1 Trillion.

But Of Course after Consideration of ALL of This!…  The Recession is Over and We are Bottoming and Basing in All Sectors.

What ???         ;-)

OK… all of my obvious Sarcasm aside… We look at this Dollar Strength in relative Terms to the Price Action we are seeing… so let’s have a look at The Euro again as “The Currency Volume King”… and pull up a Yen Cross to see how the Yen is handling His Side of The Situation as well.

Here are the Hourly Views of EUR/USD and the EUR/JPY for Continuity.

Give The Captures a Click for Various Levels of Reference, and Post-Time is 1:00 GMT.

The Euro Yen sees the Risk-Averse Sentiment Fall from the Dynamic 138.30’s Resistance Area down to the 137.00’s “Transitive Rollover” Support… as Price may certainly Violate the Area in search of the next Range-Leg of the 137.00 to the 136.00 Area.

This Area may be the “Deepest” Price looks to go on an IntraDay Basis in the Immediate-Term, as we still have a Solid Bullish Uptrend in Place.

 Price looks to the 140.60’s Fib Variant Figure on The Weekly View here… which is certainly In Sight.

 The Fiber also sees Similar Sentiment… as the IntraDay Fib Variant of the Weekly 23.6% Dynamic Support Level comes into View.

The Daily Head & Shoulders Formation is looking for Full Completion as Downside-Risk increases.

In this Case… We arrive at our “Relative Sentiment Comparison” that The Yen is once again… “Weaker” than The Dollar in the Current Risk-Averse Climate.

As always, please join me for the “Currency Majors Technical Perspective” Report right around 6:30 tp 7:00 GMT, to be followed by a Blog Update as is usually the Case!

I hope to See You then!

Greetings again, Everyone and A Fine Sunday to You!

Writing-Time for me is 9 A.M., so it is 16:00 GMT.

With some Thoughts still floating around in my Noodle about the “Macro-State” of Things… I reluctantly raise the Subject of Economics.

Of Course… a Disclaimer is Mandatory.

I am not an Economist… I am a Trader.

I consider my self rather Apolitical… as my larger concerns tend to rest with the State of Contemporary Art than with the State of the Union… the State of the local Opera rather than the State of changes in Economic Theory.

So Here Goes!…         

In our current Climate of Quantitative Easing and the largest “Printing Press” known in Existence… we need to realize the beginnings of the current Crisis in “Sentiment” began with the Dot-Bomb Collapse in 1999-2000 or so… when they exorbitant Funding and “Free-For-All” Exuberance was in full swing.

How else can we justify “Abstract Artificial” Venture Capital Funding for an Internet Company that did not even exist… much less the IPO-Mania that followed it on “Launch Day”?…

We move forward throughout the first half of the Decade with most of that Exuberance still lingering in the Motivations and Supply and Demand habits never really wavering.

The Stimulus Packages, Bailouts, Incessant Policy Changes, etc. leave me with a clear Conclusion that can be drawn from these “Deep Over-Corrections” of all of this is realized as we look into the Near-Term Future.

Inevitably… Interest rates and Inflation will gradually come back into The Equation, as these two Elements begin to creep higher as “The Recovery” continues.

The real issue, in my personal View, is what do we do, then, with the massive Quantitative Easing  which literally quadruples our National Debt  with just the “Shopaholic Spending Spree” of January and February?

We may handle the situation with Higher Interest Rates alleviating some of the Fallout… or simply raise Taxes across the board… neither sit well if done in a rapid Fashion, as The Treasury will have to sell Bonds at a reasonable Rate to capitalize all of this.

So we have The Path of Interest Rates or The Path of Taxes… both if which are “Behind The Curve”, so to speak, deep Unemployment is not stabilizing fast enough to cover this aspect of The Gap.

In this sense… The Cure of massive Q.E. and Massive ongoing Deficit are surely Worse that the Exuberance of The Disease.

Higher Across-The-Board Taxes and Higher looming Interest Rates on the Horizon may just see us back where we started…

Another Recession.

DISCLAIMER:

The above Thoughts are in no way indicative of a Wharton-Trained Economist… but indicative of Divergent-Thinking Trader whom you may think is crazy.

This is acceptable… as it certainly will not be the first time.

Hee hee hee…    

See all of You later for The Sydney Open to begin our New Week of Trading!

:

Greetings, Everyone and a Happy Saturday to All!

Writing-Time is 7 A.M. for me, so it is 14:00 GMT.

I thought I would add a few Thoughts today on all of the Rhetoric surrounding the “Superior” Non-Farm Payrolls Data we saw yesterday.

At least The Media would have us believe this deeply Premature Sentiment.

As I mentioned yesterday… In my personal View… there is nothing glowingly “Superior” or “Positive” about 9.4% Unemployment.

There is nothing deeply Positive about literally  5 unemployed Persons for every 1 Job Opening.

Now… don’t start calling me a “Perma-Bear” and making Plans again for The Firing Squad!      

I am certainly pleased with the overall Sentiment of Data we have seen in recent Months, with subtle Basing in many Fundamental Areas… I just feel The Bigger Picture is not being considered here from the Daily Information that the Layman Non-Trading Population receives.

As Traders, we know where to look for Confirmation of REAL Data that we see… we know where to go to get a “Measure of Sentiment”… as we have our Quality Newswires, Price Charts, and each other… that the Layman Public simply does not have.

We know not to take things at Face Value… and dig a little Deeper into the Data and Information.

Let’s look at the “spotlight Currency” of the Week…The Queen… to Illustrate my point here.

Very Simple… as we all do this all the time.

Here is The “Headline” Mainstream View.

“Oh Wow!… Look at that!…The British Pound is on a Roll!… The strength is unbelievable!… The Pound is back for sure!… Look at Her go!…”

Here is the Hourly of the Trend Mid-Week…

…And here is the Dollar Strength to Negate that same Hourly trend…

BUT… “Look at Her go!” ???…

Hmm… The Queen is a bit “tempered” now, isn’t She… when we See her on the Weekly View.

My Point here is just like with Currency and other Products We work with each Day… We always get out there and look at The Bigger Picture.

The same should be said with The Global Financial Situation.

Positive Data Points for One Release over One Month Does NOT a Recovery Make!!!

Have a Fine Saturday, Everyone and I will see you tomorrow!

Greetings once again, Everyone!

With the Central Bank Interest Rate Decisions coming in As Expected with Consensus, we focus on The Fiber and Cable as we move forward.

As expected, we have Consolidating Continuation moving on… even with the 200-Pip Volatility Drop on Cable due to the “Rumor” of Gordon Brown’s Resignation.

Here are the Hourly Views of The Euro and The Pound, so give them a Click for various Levels of Reference.

Post-Time is 14:45 GMT.

Clear Support and Resistance Levels are still Seen, with the 1.6200 Handle providing Cluster Support on Cable from the IntraDay Hourly View… as well as the 1.4140’s acting as Dynamic Support with The Fiber…. as well as the Longer-Term Daily Resistance Confluence Area with the Weekly 50% Fib Variant at the 1.4180’s.

We arrive at a “steep” Bear Flag/Asymmetrical Triangle Formation on Hourly Fiber, in which The Break could see the 1.4050’s and 1.4020’s in the Immediate-Term.

To the Upside… a Violation of the 1.4250’s Static Resistance brings the 1.4300 Handle in Sight as Price develops.

The Queen maintains Consistent Support, as She builds Energy for a Probable Downside Break to the 1.6050’s Static Support Area. Upside Momentum needs to Clear the 1.6420/50’s Areas of Resistance for a shot at 1.6550’s in the Near-Term.

 As we fall into Consolidation in most market Units ahead of NFP tomorrow… let’s be Vigilant and Observe how Price Action behaves and Break or Rejects Key Levels moving forward.

As always… I will return with you for more Updates today, so please join me as we progress!

A sincere thanks to All who joined Valeria and Myself for the “BoE and ECB Interest Rate Live Coverage” at 11:00 GMT!

I always enjoy doing those Sessions, and Val does as well!… We hope it provided some Insight to your Trading Day, and we look forward to more Opportunities to join You in this Fashion!

Greetings, Everyone and Welcome to “Central Bank” Thursday!

Obviously after the Massive Corrections seen… at least relative to IntraDay Views… We have reached “Re-Positioned Levels” ahead of the Bank of England and the European Central Bank Rate Decisions at 11:00 and 11:45 GMT,  where both Entities hold Consensus to Hold Rates at 0.5% and 1.0%, respectively.

We also have On The Docket more Employment-Sector Data, with Initial and Continuing Jobless Claims as well as the Bank of Canada looking for a little Daylight with their Interest Rate Decision… despite Expectations of a Hold there as well.

Let’s take a “Tour” and check in with the AUD/USD, USD/CAD, Crude Oil, and USD/JPY.

This will give us a rather Comprehensive View of where The Dollar stands on “Both Sides of the Fence”…. ( Of Course… We know It is surely having difficulty standing at all!… hee heee… )

Give the Captures a Click for various Levels of Reference, as Commentary precedes The Captures.

Post-Time is 1:30 GMT.

The Commodity Currencies are “Basing” in Ranges of 70-80 Pips or so… as The Aussie finds Dynamic Support and Resistance right on Its Weekly 50% Fib Variant and the .8000 Figure of Round-Number Static Resistance… as we spoke of yesterday in an Update.

Oil continues Its “Basing” as well between the $65.50-$66.00 Levels, as The Loonie continues Its Dollar Rebound with a Bounce from Dynamic “Transitive Rollover” Support at the 1.1050’s Handle.

Our Levels were met on both Units, with clear Support and Resistance Levels seeing Contact and anchoring Price.

The Dollar Yen continues It “Push and Pull Battle” with The Dollar with Inversion… as during Climates of Risk Aversion, we look to see Who is the Strongest “In-Flight  Safe Haven” Unit. In Risk Appetite Climates such as now, we look to determine Who is the Weakest to Counter with other Beta Units.

A Break of the 95.50’s Static Support sees a deeply potential return to the 95.00 Handle, as the 94.50’s to the High 93.80’s is certainly Probable with the Weight of Yen Correction against The Dollar.

Let’s observe how the Asian-Pacific Sectors handle the Activity, and please join me around 6:30/7:00 GMT for the “Currency Majors Technical Perspective” Report… to be followed by a Blog Update specifically concerning EUR/USD and GBP/USD as we prepare for the Interest rate Decisions.

I also invite you to please Join our FXstreet Advisor and my good friend,  Valeria Bednarik,  and Myself for the “BoE and ECB Interest Rates Decisions” Live Coverage beginning at 10:45 GMT !

Coverage will be on the FXstreet Home Page and Calendar, so have a look  for Registration!

Greetings once again, Everyone!

We are beginning to see some “Slowing Down” of Momentum and Behavior across most Market Units… as Accumulation and Continuation “Clusters”, “Flags”, etc. are being seen from a Technical Perspective.

Equity Futures are bidding lower on the back of Inflationary concerns with Treasury Yields possibly being a Catalyst to increase Mortgage Rates and such in the Housing Sector.

Gold sharply reversed IntraDay, but bounced back nicely on the back of this SAME Rationale… Inflation.

Safe-Haven Sentiment is returning there, despite the Natural Tendency for “Attraction” to the $1000/Oz. Level being a Factor as well.

The July Crude Futures Contract, ( as well as the Continuous “True” Contract on the NYMEX…) looks to continue a bit of Consolidation from an IntraDay View.

The Dow and S&P 500 look to open lower a bit as well…. so my entire Thought Process here reflects back to the “Shallow” Corrections we were speaking of being Mindful of as we move forward.

My larger Views on the Macro-Corrections are certainly not in View at this time, so “Normal” Technicals are playing out and laying Proper Foundation for us as we move along… especially for those of you who work on an IntraDay Basis.

Let’s check in on The USD/JPY from our last Update… as our Flag certainly has been broken to The Downside for the “Magnet” Transitive Rollover of the 95.50’s Static Support Area.

The “Push and Pull Battle” of these Two Currencies is clear here… as our Bull Flag is largely Negated, although Price may be attracted back into the Flag Area at the same time… Clear Indications of the “Infighting” with these two Low Yielding Brother-In-Arms!       

Give the Captures a Click, and Post-Time is just shy of the U.S. NYSE Opening Bell at 13:25 GMT.

 Gold and Oil still look to find their way to a bit more Correction… and again… these Levels are for a bit more of a Longer-Term View as Accumulation continues with Crude and Gold works Its larger Range here…

We have Pending Home sales on the way soon… so be Mindful of this Data, as any Housing Data is in the Spotlight lately with the whole Treasury/Bond Yields Behavior and the concerns for Interest Rates keeping some Pressure on opening Opportunities for the Consumers!

As always, I will be back with more Updates as we move along, so please join me soon!