Posted on July 23, 2009 at 5:46 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »

 

Greetings again, Everyone!

The positive importance of The U.K. Retails Sales Data is showing “slight” sign of Stabilization as Actuals of a 1.3% rise clipped the 0.3% Consensus with ease. While this translated into a nice Break of The Queen and Her Major Cross into Appreciation… we would really need to see stronger and stronger Purchasing “Evidence” coming out of the U.K. Consumer over a several-month period to really see Retail Sales as a Bellwether of positive Sentiment and Growth.

Let’s check in briefly with The GBP/USD and The GBP/JPY, and here are our same Hourly Views.

Give The Captures a Click, and Post-Time is 10:45 GMT.

 

 The Magenta Dynamic Support Line did, in fact, Hold for us and become a “new” Transitive Rollover Area of Static Support. Price now clips the 1.6510 Resistance Area, and if we do not see an Impulsive Correction back to the 1.6440’s Levels, then the 1.6600 Handle is on the way via 1.6555 Dynamic Resistance.

A Correction at 1.6600 then has a rather High-Probability of occurring, as Static Resistance at this Level is solid.

 

 

 

The Pound Yen show similar Price Action that is even more “extended” on the IntraDay View as we see a “potential” Double-Top Behavior if Price can fall on the Yen Strength, and bring the Corrective Sentiment further along. Solid Confluence is seen here with the Transitive Rollover Support Area and the Weekly 38.2% Fib Variant that we have held for months now.

The Daily Lower Channel Line may hinder this, and act as Dynamic Support… in the same fashion it acted as Dynamic Resistance over the last two Days of Hourly Candles.

 

 

 

 

While both of these Units are Overbought on the Hourly Views… taking a “Clue” from the U.S. Jobless Claims and Existing Home Sales Data will be relevant as we see to what “Degree” The Dollar is affected in a couple of hours!

Be sure and check back in for more Updates to follow, so I hope to see All of you soon!

;-)

 

 

 


Posted on July 22, 2009 at 17:55 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »

 

Greetings again, Everyone at The NYSE Close!

Well… I think for the first time in the history of The Blog… I really do not have a lot to say!

OK OK… All of you can stop cheering now!… hee hee hee…    ;-)

 

Seriously… the continual Summer “Directionless” Sentiment out on the Larger Time-Cycles are certainly a sign of the Lower Summer Volumes… despite the increased Volatility and “Angular Noisy” Market Behavior.

Of course from The Hill with Bernanke, all The “Fed-Speak” was certainly out on the table for all of us to hear… as Economic Indicators and Data Point Releases get “Lost in Translation” for the Layman listener or viewer on T.V.

Housing and Consumer Sentiment are the “Name of The Game” here, as always, in any type of Economic stabilization and Recovery… so on it goes!

As we move into The Asian-Pacific Sectors, let’s take a look at The USD/JPY Unit as The Nikkei, The Aussie Markets, The Kospi, Hang Seng, etc… get moving along with their Morning.

The Unit could be the Classic Symbol of a Directionless Market!

Post-Time is 23:00 GMT.

 

On the Daily View, we are locked in a tight Range of about 91.70’s Static Support to the Transitive Rollover Area of Resistance at the 94.80’s. Our Long-Term Downtrend Channel from April is still very valid in “Anchoring” Price and current Momentum is leaning to more Depreciation of the Unit with Yen Strength.

 

 

 

The Hourly provides a little more Clarity as a Horizontal Range is in place. Price looks to Breach the Downside Dynamic Support Line first with a move towards the 93.20’s Support Area in the Immediate-Term… as Risk Aversion gradually comes back to The Markets.

 

 

 

 

 

We will see how Price progresses, so please join me for the “Big Blog” Post for Thursday in a few hours!

:-)

 

 

 

 


Posted on July 20, 2009 at 10:21 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »

Greetings, Everyone and Welcome to Monday!

We begin the Week, as we mentioned yesterday, with that continual “Push and Pull” on an IntraDay basis of Risk Aversion and Risk Appetite that we have been working through for months now.

Crude and Gold are up and slightly overextended on The Hourly Views, and the Dow and S& P are up a bit as of Writing-Time as well.

Let’s have a look at a couple of Yen Crosses that are leaning towards the “Risk Appetite” side for now on the Hourly Views, although Price is retracing…as is Gold and Crude as well.

Here are the Captures, so give them a Click as always.

Post-Time is 15:20 GMT.

 

 

The Pound Yen looks to build a new Upleg, and actually most of The Yen Crosses do as well. We consolidate at the Confluence Area of 38.2%  of the Weekly Downleg as Price is still adhering to and working that massive Weekly Bear Flag Formation…. as the larger Daily Channel Lower Trendline is providing Dynamic Support moving forward.

 

 

 

Aussie Yen is very similar in Price Action and Sentiment… as it looks towards the 77.00 Handle for a bit of Accumulation that will lead to Consolidation.

A slight Bounce will return Price to the 75.00 Handle where if we consider the recent Upleg… we may see some Bullish Builds coming into Play as Price moves along.

 

 

 

The excessive heat here has been giving me some connection issues, but hopefully all is fine now!… and as long as this remains so, I will have more Updates on the way for all of you!

:-)

 

 

 

 


Posted on June 20, 2009 at 11:18 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »

 

Greetings, Everyone and a Fine Saturday to You!

Writing-Time is about 9 a.m… so 16:00 GMT.

 

 

We end the Trading Week still “Anchored” everywhere by Horizontal Ranges in most Units… Currency and Otherwise… as The Dollar remains weak against Its “Risk Aversion/Appetite Brother,”, The Yen… while remaining largely Rangebound from the Macro-View in most Pairs.

We have large Triangle/Flag/Pennant-Type Formations of Continuation, as Price sees more Deep Breaks on the Horizon soon.

Despite the Speed and “Spotlight” Momentum of The Queen lately… in my Personal View… It is still  the Commodity Currencies that see the strongest “Weight” of The Pendulum Swing against The Dollar.

On the “Other Side of the Fence”… The Yen and even the Euro still have Battles of Strength vs. Weakness to deal with in more of an “evenly matched” Scenario with The Dollar.

The Yen Crosses move along nicely, as the “Degree of Disconnect” in Strength and Weakness is usually distinct and wide… so when they Rally…t hey move with Significance. When they Fall… they Depreciate with Significance as well, hence becoming Solid Units with Volume and Liquidity.

 

 

In my View, the Euro is a fine Illustration of the “Financial Gridlock and Pressure” we are still dealing with… as the “Weight” from the Macro-Level is still haunting The Pair.

From the Daily View, we do have a Clear Bull Flag Formation in progress, which signifies Continuation, but also a Break to the Upside with “Full Completion”, in this Case, around the 1.5100 Handle…which is certainly not In Favor at this time.

Downside-Risk sees possible Negative EuroZone Data Points taking Price to the 38.2% Fib Variant of the April Upleg Confluence with Dynamic Support.

 

 

 

 

 

The some what “Indecisiveness” of The Euro is indicative of overall Market Sentiment, and I really do not see The FOMC next Week changing any real Views of The Dollar as well in terms of Activity…. so we continue Onward with what The markets define for us to Work with, as always!

 

 

Have a fine Day, Everyone and please join me tomorrow for another Sunday Post!

:-)

 

 

 


Posted on June 19, 2009 at 3:13 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »

 

Greetings, Everyone and Welcome to Friday!

We have had an Event-Filled and Volatile Week of Work this Week… especially if you Working Style is on the IntraDay Levels!

While in the very-near Immediate-Term, we should see, and are seeing,  some Dollar and Yen Strength as Prices move to break various minor Levels of Consolidation and Mixed Sentiment… we can step out a little bit and see Corrective Retracements now setting up for potential Bullish Builds to come back into The Markets over the next few Sessions.

The Yen Itself looks to a little more Weakness of Late than Its “Partner” in Risk-Aversion and Appetite…The Dollar.

We still look to these Two Currencies on their own Individual Merit as a “Bellwether” for out Strength Vs. Weakness Ideas, and the varying “Degrees” that we may see…

We check in with one Yen Cross as a Measurement of this Idea, so here we have the AUD/JPY on the Daily, Weekly, and Hourly Views.

This Cross is rather Illustrative of current Yen Weakness with the heavy U.S. Treasury Bonds selling off yesterday, and the subsequent weakening of The Dollar off of Support Areas, with The Yen weakening as “Collateral Damage” in this case.

Give The Captures a Click for Levels preceded by Commentary, as always… and Post-Time is 8:15 GMT.

 

The Aussie Yen still finds Buoyancy with Its Long-Term Uptrend Channel from January on the Daily View, as Price is “Anchored” quite nicely through the entire Macro-Upleg.

( I must say this Unit has been a Position Trader’s Dream… as has The Aussie Dollar… for those of you out there who subscribe to these Longer-Term Views…  ;-)

 

 

 

 

On the Larger Weekly level… we can say  this entire Upleg is simply a “Wide” Flag coming out of a Bear Flag Formation, as the “Textbook Case” is evident with a Hold at Major 50% Fib Variant/Static Resistance that we currently see.

 

 

 

 

The Hourly View sees the IntraDay Range rather clearly… as Price looks to Clip the 78.20’s Dynamic Resistance Level to see the 79.50’s Static Resistance, and 50% Weekly Downleg Fib Variant Areas.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Please have a look at The “Currency Majors Technical Perspective” Report  recently published for some Immediate-Term Views on where all of the still-continuing Macro-Consolidation and Ranges may be taking us leading into The Weekend!

Of course… I will have several more Updates for You as we move along in the Trading Day, so please come back for a Visit!

;-)

 

 

 

 

 


Posted on June 16, 2009 at 2:10 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »

 

Greetings Again, Everyone!

The Risk-Averse Dollar and Yen are now moving into Accumulation to Consolidation from the IntraDay Perspective, as Exchange Rates begin to slow and ease.

We move straight into The EUR/JPY from The Yen Perspective… and The AUD/USD from The Dollar Perspective.

Give the Hourly Views a Click as always… with Commentary above, and Post-Time is 7:00 GMT.

 

The Euro Yen finds a Bounce into Consolidation at the 132.60’s Static Support Area, as Price looks to the Immediate-Term Resistance at the 134.00 Handle. A Breach of the Support Level sees the 131.70’s and 131.40’s Support Areas in the Near-Term… while and Upside Beach sees the 135.00 Handle to Hold the Correction.

 

 

 

 

 

The Aussie sees Consolidation generally caught between the .7900 Handle and the .8000 Handle with even a “tighter” 50-Pip Range to .7950 as well. Price needs to clear the .8090 Resistance Area to regain Bullish Sentiment in the Near-Term… other Bearish Views look to Depreciate Price through the .7820’s and onto the .7750’s in the Near-Term.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

For further Detail on how The Majors are working in these Consolidative Zones, here is the just-published “Currency Majors Technical Perspective” Report, and as always… I will certainly have more Updates as we move along!

:-)

 

 

 


Posted on June 12, 2009 at 16:31 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »

 

Greetings again, Everyone at the NYSE Close!

We come to the end of a rather “lackluster” Day in Equities and Indices… as Currencies see a bit more Correction heading into The weekend and The G8 Meeting. In a surprising burst of Rhetoric, Finance Minister Yosano from Japan “Jawbones” The Dollar Japan’s trust in the “U.S. Treasuries is absolutely unshakeable”… causing The Currency some Buoyancy.

Overall Sentiment with the U.S. Michigan Consumer Confidence Survey comes largely “In Line” as Expected.

While the overall Numbers came in “Better than Expected”… We still must be Mindful that the Data is less than Exemplary…

 

Let’s check in on The Fiber  for Dollar strength Correction going into The Weekend.

Here is the Hourly View with Commentary, so give The Capture a Click.

Post-Time is 21:30 GMT.

 Price looks to what many would View as “eventual” Completion of an IntraDay Head & Shoulders Formation…. as well as a “Superimposed” Rounded Double-Top.

If Complete… Price look for the 1.3820’s respective to The Full Pattern in the Near-Term.

On the Macro-Level… we are still largely Range-Bound here as evidenced by the Magenta Dynamic Support and Resistance Levels.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

OK, Everyone!…. I will be back with you tomorrow for some more “Weekend Thoughts”, so please come by for a Visit!

:-)

 

 

 


Posted on May 29, 2009 at 2:46 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »

 

Greetings once again, Everyone!

Our “Rhetorical” Question from our last Post is surely answered with the “Mini-Breaks” of the Flag/Triangles that we are currently seeing on the EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY, and AUD/JPY.

The “Rotation Effect” on the macro-View is surely In Play here… as slightly positive U.S. Equities finds Continuation into Asia, with additional Major Fuel given by Japan and their strong Industrial Production.

We will surely keep our Eye on the Inflows coming into Japan, as this is surely a “Positive” Boost the the Japanese Economy in the Near-Term… as we mentioned a few hours ago as well.

( I say “Positive”… as the Sentiment is fine overall… but we have the Inverse Correlation… Positive Japanese Indices will equal a weak Yen in this case… )

The European Equities pick up our “Throw the Ball Around the World” Idea, as the FTSE, DAX, and CAC all open in positive territory.

With our current Macro-Correlations “In Proper Order” with Equities and the Yen Crosses… Bullish Sentiment should continue.

We check back in with the Hourlies of all Three Units… but this time with No Commentary and literally “Naked” Captures.

Observe how almost-Identical Price Action is evident here… as the “Uniformity” of Sentiment provides a “Smoothness” that even our “Heavy Friend”, The Euro… is contending with nicely after all that Pressure this week.

Give the Captures a Click, and Post-Time is 7:45 GMT.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Of course… be very Mindful of Corrections here as these Trends look to continue…especially considering the Appreciation we have seen all week long.

It’s the Weekend… and You know what that means!       :-)

The Big Boys are fueling up The Yachts for a little Cruise, so Profit-Taking will surely be Evident as we move forward, and at least leave us in some Continuation of tight little Ranges for the Weekend.

We shall see!

 

As always, I will return for more Updates as we prepare for the EuroZone CPI, and the U.K. Housing Data Points in a little while, and please have a look for some Immediate-Term Thoughts on The Majors with the just-published “Currency Majors Technical Perspectives”  Report!

I hope to see Everyone Soon!

;-)

 

 

 

 


Posted on May 27, 2009 at 16:50 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »

 

Greetings for our Final Tuesday Post!

( Do not worry… I will be back as usual for Thursday’s “Big Blog” Post in a few hours…  ;-)

As the Dow peels off the majority of Its Gains today… 173.47 to be exact… Can we really call it a Neutral Day since the Index was Up about this much throughout The Day in the first Place?…

Semantics,  I suppose… So It Is What It Is.

The S&P 500 also corrects by about 17 Points, as that “Coveted” 880 Levels still calls !

We have Gold and The Queen also falling with similar “Normal” Retracement Price Action over the last few hours.

( Incidently… The Euro is feeling more Pain as well in early Asian Trading… coming off 55 Pips as of this Writing…)

Her are the Hourly Views of Gold and Her Majesty for Reference, so give the Captures a Click for Commentary.

Post-Time for me 21:50 GMT.

 

Gold corrects from Its Daily Static Resistance of 957.07 down to just-above Dynamic Support at 948.55.

 

 

 

 

Her Majesty also decides to “Rest” a bit… as She comes off of a 1.6083 IntraDay High, and is finding  ”Resting Support” with the Hourly 50EMA. 

 Continuation here as we move into The Asian-Pacific Sectors may see the Daily Pivot of 1.5905 and 1.5869 dynamically… where that’s right !… You guessed It!… Bullish Builds may come in as Asia continues the Currency Momentum of The Unit.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Equity Bourses of Asia may look to open a bit Lower on the Pivot of the slight Dow Losses… but this may simply be motivated by Covering, as Bullish Views look for better Effective-Cost.

 

 

Please join me in a while for Tomorrow’s Opening Post, and be sure to watch the Asian Exchanges for any Correlations that may come into View… especially with the Yen Crosses !

:-)

 

 


Posted on May 19, 2009 at 6:06 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »

 

Greetings again, Everyone!

As we spoke of in our earlier Post, the Asian sectors did pick up on the positive Strength of the U.S. Equities, as the Nikkei gained 251 Points on the back of the Dow’s 235-Point gain.

We are still seeing our Idea of “Delayed” Corrections, especially with The Queen, as the British Pound has rallied to fresh 2009 Highs, bringing Momentum that has spilled “Blood on the Streets” for any Dollar and Yen Longs that may have been In Play of late…

 

Here are the GBP/USD and GBP/JPY Hourly Views, so give them a Click for Commentary.

Post-Time is 11:00 GMT.

 

The Break of Major static Resistance @ the 1.5370’s has The Queen looking in the Mid-Term to the 1.5700 Figure if the current Behavior continues. Any Corrective Sentiment will likely be held at 1.5350’s Area of current Daily Static Support.

 

 

 

The Pound Yen also sees significant Appreciation with similar Price Action, as any Retracement prior to a run for the 150.50’s Resistance will see the 147.20’s, or a new “Transitive Rollover” from Resistance-To-Support clocking in at the 148.00/20’s Handle Area.

 

 

 

 

 

The 7:00 GMT “Currency Majors Technical Perspective” will give some IntraDay Insight into Near- and Mid-Term Levels, despite being published prior to the Current Price Breaks we have seen.

We will check in after the NYSE Open, to see how Equities pick up on the Bullish Price Action… as Equity Futures are certainly Well-Bid as of Writing-Time!

:-)

 

 

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