Greetings again, Everyone!

We have had some time to “digest” a significant portion of Bernanke’s Testimony on The Hill, as well as today’ EIA Crude Inventory Builds and we see our Crude/Equities/Euro Correlations functioning well from an IntraDay View.

While in the “Trasditional” sense, The Fiber’s Correlation with Gold is always significant… we often see Oil playing a solid Role here as well due primarily to the Euro moving “loosely but generally” In Tandem with the NYMEX WTI Continuous Contract ( The West Texas Intermediate Futures).

The Rationale behind this is rather extensive to get into, but for the sake of my point… we can use the Classic “Inversion” of Strong Oil and Gold equalling A Weak Dollar… since both Commodities are bought and sold in Dollars.

This translates for us with a Rising EUR/USD correlating very highly with a Rising Oil Price… since both are seeing a Weakening Dollar.

Relative Performance so far today with The Dollar sees Crude off about 0.30 %, while the Euro is up about 0.10%.

OK… all of you know me very well by now and if I do not stop… I will start going into my “CVJ’s Bag of Analogies”, and ramble for days…so let’s move on to The Captures!   

Here we have The Hourly Views of both Units, where we can see how tightly Price is correlating on the IntraDay Basis… literally right down to The Wicks and “Directionality” of Support and Resistance Levels.

Give The Captures a Click, as always… and Post-Time is 18:30 GMT.

Of course… time for one of my “Rhetorical” Questions!

“Is this a Euro and Crude Move here?… or are we seeing The Dollar driving these two Ships…”

I have my Views… but what are yours?… Please feel free to Comment, as always!

As always, more Updates to come… so please join me after The NYSE Close, and we can check on those larger Equity and Index Correlations as well!

Greetings again, Everyone!

We arrive about 75 Minutes into The NYSE Open where the Dow and S&P Indices are varying from largely “Flat” to a bit of early Gains. Bernanke’s continued Testimony today will continue to play a large part in Equity sentiment today, as will the continued Roll-Outs during Earnings Season.

Our Thought on the MPC Minutes out of The Bank of England came to fruition as both Dynamic and Static Support Levels were hit, and Price Appreciation immediately cam back in to secure the same Levels once again.

Here are The Captures of both for a quick Reference, so give them a Click… and Post-Time is 14:45 GMT.

The Queen met and surpassed Lower static Support at the 1.6330’s where Price Appreciation on Prime Minister Brown’s and The BoE’s Rhetoric for a more “positive outlook” on The U.K. Economy provided the Impetus here. Our thoughts on the “decreasing likelihood” of additional Quantitative Easing gave he Pound a boost here… as even several hours later…we still “Anchor” at the 1.6380’s/1.6400 Supportive Areas.

As in our Pre-MPC Post last evening… The Pound Yen is literally taking The Queen’s lead here with a step of Depreciation to the lower 152.30’s Static Support back to the 153.20’s and finding “Safe Harbor” there for now.

In turning to The Euro… in my personal View the most “Directionless” Unit around… a “Catalyst” is surely needed to move Price out of Its Accumulating and Consolidating nature… ( of course, my thought here will be dependent on the Time-Cycles you prefer to work on…)

We still do have a “loose” Correlation of Sentiment with U.S. Equities and Gold and Oil… although the relatively “Flat” Hourly Descending Channel give us extensive Wicks of indecision to work with.

The Month-over-Month Housing Price Index comes in above Consensus, although the weak Year-over-Year Numbers largely negate this… so no real surprises there.

We now see one of my personal favorite Data Point Releases, as most of you know, The EIA Oil Inventory Builds… and those Numbers come in with Inventories slightly down while Gasoline and Distillate Builds are slightly higher than Consensus… and we see no real Market Reaction here concerning The Dollar.

All Eyes are now on Uncle Ben as we move along!…so more Updates to follow as usual!

I would like to point out something I have been aware of for quite a while through my good friend and FXstreet’s Chief Analyst, Valeria Bednarik, and her Work along with Alberto Munoz and Tatsuya Kawanishi of the FXstreet Content Team, on the new revamped FXstreet Tools Section and Area!

Having been around these woods here on FXstreet since early 2005… I have seen many deep improvements and changes come and go to the Content of the whole Site, and this is one of the most exciting!

To have these Tools revised and more effective in their Application will surely benefit all who use them!

Here is The Link so give them a Try!

http://www.fxstreet.com/forex-tools/

Greetings Everyone, and Welcome to Wednesday!

We prepare for the Bank of England Minutes to be released, as we look for any additional signs of increased Stimulus since they failed to do their “Allocated Increase” of 25B Sterling in additional Asset Purchases.

The Markets will be especially watchful for any Rhetoric or Indications of a “Timeline” of if and when this will occur…as well as the “possibility” of additional Policy since the BoE does have their “Eye on the Inflationary Ball” with its very sensitive Economy of late.

In addition, we will certainly watch the EIA Crude Inventory Builds Data Release as well… since Crude has been an interesting “Leading Indicator” of sorts… at lease concerning Sentiment in the last few weeks.

Let’s have a look at The Queen again… as well as GBP/JPY… where we already notice a literal “Grinding Halt” to Price Action on both Units ahead of The Minutes.

Here is The Hourly… where our Levels are basically unchanged from our earlier Update… as Price looks to hold the 1.6380’s Transitive Rollover Support Area in the Immediate-Term.

Give The Capture a Click, and Post-Time is 2:45 GMT.

Pound Yen is seeing very similar Price action as well… as Price looks to hold the 153.20’s/00 Handle in the Immediate-Term. We are already seeing continuation of the Yen Strength, as the Unit is off about 66 Pips or so for the Day already in “relative” terms.

A Breach of the Area will see the 152.30’s with ease for another “Re-Test” to form an Hourly Double-Bottom in the Near-Term if the Area holds.

We will surely check in with these Developments as we progress, so please stop back by frequently for more Updates… as I always look forward to all of your Visits!

Greetings Everyone, and welcome to Wednesday!

While we have seen IntraDay Momentum and Volatility leading to solid Reversals in Price Behavior… the Ranges we work with are still Clear, Defined, and Intact.

As we come out of a  Risk-Averse Climate, we will not “logically” expect to see Risk Appetite completely reverse the “Holdings of the Day”, as they say.

In Art, Painters will “see” Line, Plane, Composition, and Color… but we still know the “Nature” of the Color will change and transfigure as it begins to actually dry.

In my deeply personal and esoteric View here… our current Climate of Price Behavior within most Units is very similar to this Analogy.

As we talked about early on Tuesday at the NYSE Open, we have plenty of Activity and Momentum in The Markets to work with, but we lack any semblance of clear Directionality moving forward.

Welcome to the Summer.

Welcome to Uncertainty.

Welcome to some of the exact Reasons for Why We Do What We Do!

In all seriousness, Climates such as these are what Currency Traders live for…. a lack of “Real” Institutional Volume that we are already beginning to see in the Correlations and Participation of related Markets… and the Anticipation and Seasonality of Energy as an entire Sector as the world’s largest consumer of Energy, The U.S., looks to travel and move about in a very complex economic environment. 

Is it truly any “shock” why Crude Oil is the “Leading Indicator” of The Day in the last few weeks?

Work with it or not… it is part of the Equation of the Trading Work we all are doing, so it is advisable to be mindful of.

In any event, let’s check in with The Loonie, the Dollar Canadian Unit, as a “Proxy” for Crude Oil… and I emphasise PROXY.

We often hear of working with the USD/CAD as the same as “Trading Oil”.

This is ill-advised and simply incorrect.

While the Correlation between these two is always deeply high, we must accept the two Products on their own Merit… Period.

Crude Oil… whether as a Futures Contract or as the Continuous Contract on the NYMEX… is a Product with it’s own Characteristics, Criteria, and Tendencies.

The Canadian Dollar is the same… and should be given the same Respect.

The Canadian Economy does not solely rely on Crude Oil Outflows… so why should we consider it as such?

Here we have The Hourly View, so give the Capture a Click for various Levels.

Post-Time is 00:50 GMT.

We can immediately see the Strength of The Loonie Itself against The Dollar is “extreme” compared to Its overall Crude Oil Correlation, so we have an Outlier right there in terms of Similarities.

Price looks for a significant Bounce here from the Daily Dynamic Support Confluence with the 23.6% Weekly Downleg Fib Variant.’The Bear Flag in formation here holds “heavy weight” upon it, due to the Uni-Directionality of the Downtrend…. but a Clip of the 1.1440’s will give The Dollar a bit of Oxygen in the Immediate-Term.

The Unit is surely one to be Mindful of concerning a Corrective Move on the IntraDay basis, so we will check in after the 6:30 GMT “Currency Majors Technical Perspective” Report during my next Blog Update.

Allow me to express my sincerest Appreciation to all of you who follow the “Currency Majors Technical Perspective” Reports I assist with for our FXStreet Chief Analyst and my friend and Colleague, Valeria Bednarik.

We are proud to have achieved the  #1 Position for the “Top 10 Forex Reports”  concerning Readers and Page Views for the month of June!

This is because of all of You… Period.

 Valeria and I are simply pleased that our Writings and Views are beneficial, and we hope them to continue to be.

We are quite different in our approaches to The Markets, and at the same time, we hold many “Universal” Perspectives that all Traders hold, so we hope we are able to reach many different types of Trading “Styles” as we move along.

Thanks Again, Everyone, for your support… It is sincerely appreciated by both of us!

Greetings again, Everyone!

We are seeing The Dollar and Yen continue to Correct across most Currency Units, as well as Gold and Oil, despite continued Macro-Uncertainties about Global Economic Recovery.

Many Units are still finding “Basing” and Consolidating Behavior with Technical Formations such as Flags/Pennants and Horizontal Ranges, although within these Areas clear IntraDay Directionality is being Seen.

Similar to The Euro, Crude Oil is seeing a burst of Bullish Momentum, despite Price simply arriving to clear Static Resistance Levels within a larger Range. The Confluence of the July 2008 Weekly 23.6% Fib Variant and $60.50 Resistance is holding Price to the Upside, and if the Area is Breached, a new “Transitive Rollover” of Resistance-becoming-Support will be in Place, although any true Bullish Momentum in Crude will be considered in a :Counter-Trend” Fashion…even if Price moves beyond the $61.35 Range/Resistance Zone.

Here is The Hourly, so give it a Click for Various Levels.

Post-Time is 7:40 GMT.

The EUR/JPY is indicative of slight Risk Appetite returning to The markets, as we have our Equities Correlations back Intact… not to mention “Cross-Current” Correlations with Global Equity Exchanges such as The FTSE… which is up about 3% at The London Open.

Price looks towards the 130.60’s/80’s Static and Dynamic Resistance Levels, as Price Appreciation pulls out of the 127.80’s to 129.00 Hourly Range. Further Appreciation sees the 131.40’s in the Near-Term, while Failure to Hold the 129.00 Handle of Static Support will see the 127.80’s for multiple Hourly Tests of the Area.

If this Behavior is Seen, the Tests will weaken Support and a potential Breach towards the 127.00 Handle in the Mid-Term would be plausible.

The  “Currency Majors Technical Perspective” Report  has been published for Immediate-Term Details on The Majors, as well as the new Installments of The Fundamental Forex Foundations Section for Data Point Releases today and tomorrow of PPI and CPI.

The Retail Sales and Business Inventories Reports will be published as soon as possible, and I will have those Links for you as soon as possible!

Please join me for more Updates moving forward, especially as we move towards Data Point Releases at 12:30 GMT.

In the Interim, keep a Mindful Eye on CPI out of the U.K. in about one hour’s time!

Greetings again, Everyone!

As we move about 30 Minutes from The NYSE Close… our first Post at 7 GMT this morning ( Midnight for “Crazy CVJ”… as everyone usually calls me … ) comes to Fruition as we have worked throughout our Day.

The Dow and S&P 500 Correlations keep The Yen Itself extremely Well-Bid… as The Yen Crosses take a Dive along with Dollar Yen.

Of course also as we have discussed, The Energy Sectors are full of Uncertainty as Crude Clips about $9.00 in the last Week alone… down about 12% .

In my personal View,  The 875 Area or so on The S&P is a crucial Area here… as The Equities and Indices as a Whole pulled a few “Bear Market Rallies” that simply may have been Over-Extended.

To clarify my Thoughts here… We simply still have this Wide “Dis-Connect” between our actual Economic Health and Macro-Market Activity.

 Of course… I am in NO WAY implying The Markets are Wrong… as in my personal Philosophy…They Never Are.

It Is what It Is… and it is “Our Job” to Act accordingly with Prudence.

There is certainly a Difference between Mis-Pricing… and Markets actually being Wrong…

“OK…Off The Soap Box, CVJ! We told you yesterday!… Enough of your  Philosophical Babbling!”… the CVJ Fan Club Guys say.

( Is it time already to send them off for another Vacation???… hee heee…  

Here we bring up our Euro Yen and Pound Yen Crosses from earlier, and Price Action on both is rather Self-Explanatory.

Both Units Clip our Dynamic Trendlines to the Downside as Price reaches for more Stable Supportive Handles.

Give them a Click, and Post-Time is 19:50 GMT.

Now… as we move into The Asian-Pacific Sectors, we “should’ see “Bleedout” from the NY Session, and have The Asian Bourses bidding and opening lower… but of course, we shall see… as we prefer not to “Predict Anything”, but use Probabilities in our Favor.

We will take a good look at The Dollar Yen for tomorrow’s “Big Blog Post”, so please join me in a few hours as we move into Asian Work!

I will see Everyone soon!

Greetings, Everyone and Welcome to Monday!

We have a somewhat-”rushed” Week with the U.S. 4th of July Independence Day on Saturday, which brings ADP, NFP, Jobless Claims and such a day earlier than usual as U.S. Markets will be closed for The Holiday.

The ECB holds the Majority of Focus this Week outside of the U.S. Data, where Inflationary Concerns still “haunt” The ECB, and their “Independent Stance” in general in relation to other Global Central Banks.

Dollar Strength sees some Daylight to begin the Week, as Crude Oil and Gold open lower.

Let’s check in with The EUR/USD, so here is the Hourly with Commentary above.

Give it a Click for Levels of Reference, and Post-Time is 2:10 GMT.

The Fiber sees Consolidation on the Hourly View ( nothing new here… since I have written and you have read this Word 4 million times in the past few weeks… hee hee… ).

Price simply cannot maintain and Hold above the 1.4100 Handle, as a fall into Accumulation @ the 1.4050’s  leads us into the “Confluence” Area of the 1.400 Handle with Dynamic Magenta 1.3980’s/1.400’s Support Area.

The 1.3880’s “Box” sees the next area of Support, where Bullish Sentiment is largely lost In Favor of Bearish Sentiment with a Clean Break.

It is early in The Asian-Pacific Sectors, and early in the Week… so we check back in with plenty of Updates for you!

In the Interim, please join me at the 6:30 GMT Hour for our European Session Installment of the “Currency Majors Technical Perspective” Report, and see how we have progressed so far!

See Everyone Soon!

Greetings again, Everyone!

The GDP comes in @ 5.5% and the Weekly Jobless Claims rise by 15K with the “Seasonal” End-of-the-School-Year Cycle as the kiddies arrive for Summer Break, and we see Layoffs, RIF’s, and Transition in the U.S. Educational System.

( Of course…not the only Sector for Claims here… but Educational Employment is a major factor here… ) 

Initial Reactions to the Data sees Dollar and Yen Strength, as Risk Aversion slides back in as a Factor,  as The Fiber eclipses our Lower Trendline from the April 22 Lows… as well as using it for Dynamic Support currently at the 1.3910’s Level.

Our Bear Flag is still “In Progress”, unless Price relinquishes last hours’ Gains and Clips the 1..3883 Dynamic Magenta-Line Resistance there…

 Here is the Hourly Capture for a look at Levels, and Post-Time is 13:20 GMT…. with U.S. Equity Futures bidding a bit lower as we head into The NYSE Open.

We will check on this “Disconnect” with Gold and Crude Oil Correlations moving forward, since we have Appreciation so far with those Two Units… unwinding in accordance with current Dollar and Yen Strength from the IntraDay View.

Please join me soon!… there is plenty more to come!

Greetings again, Everyone!

We are about 90 Minutes into The NYSE Open, as Equities and Indices are trading higher to start today’s Session.

A boost in Crude Oil Appreciation sees Price providing Momentum for general Dollar weakness, as whay seems to be a “Seasonal Occurrence” with The Niger Delta Attacks… this time on a on a Shell Pipeline… and continued Issues with Iranian Elections provided the “Catalysts” needed to throw The Back Gold above $72 for a moment… as Price now looks to a potential Hourly Bull Flag Formation.

Our Aussie Yen Example came to Fruition as well from our 8:00 GMT Blog Update, which assuredly has some “Bleedout” from The Aussie Dollar Itself… and The Queen takes off on Rhetoric from the International Monetary Fund’s increasing “Presence” on the Global Economic Scene, and Global Growth Estimates being revised “North” by about 2.4%.  Mervyn King also checks in with The U.K. “rate of Economic Decline” is flattening and Basing… which also helped to provide Support for The Pound.

Here are The Hourly Views of The Queen and Aussie Yen with Commentary above, so give the Captures a Click for various Levels.

Post-Time is 15:45 GMT.

 With a push through the 1.6440’s “Transitive Rollover” Resistance-becoming-Support, Price for The Queen now sees the 1.6500 Handle In Sight if 1.6477/80 Dynamic Resistance can be Clipped in the Immediate-Term. Otherwise, a return to “Re-Test” the 1.6400 Handle through 1.6340’s again may Hold Price for the remainder of The Day in this tight Range.

The Aussie Yen also looked for Appreciation, as Price Appreciation still looks to Clip the 78.20 Dynamic Magenta “Range Resistance”, and move towards 78.50’s through the “Confluence” Resistance/Uptrend Line/ Weekly 50% Fib Variant of the Weekly July2008 Downleg. 79.90 acting as Dynamic Support may provide Buoyancy for the rest of Today’s Session, as Accumulation may begin going into The Weekend.

Of course…I will return with more Updates as The markets deal with moving into The Weekend and the parallel Volatility from “Quadruple Witching” in The Equity Options, Index Options, Futures, and Futures Options that we mentioned briefly on one of Wednesday’s Posts!

I hope to see Everyone Soon as we move along!

Greetings, Everyone and Welcome to Wednesday!

Our “Traditional” Commodity Day here on The Blog… with EIA Crude Inventories… always gives us a nice chance to look outside of our Currency World and into a little InterMarket Analysis.

( Those of you who have been with me for a while know how essential  I think InterMarket Analysis and Concepts are…     

The Equities losing a bit of Steam on Tuesday is bleeding out” as of Writing-Time into Asia as we speak… and The Correlations with Gold and Crude are largely “In Line”, and following along.

Despite the “Buoyancy” we saw in Gold Tuesday… We see potential for further Weakness moving forward, as Gold still has not been able to maintain Its $990 Highs from a couple weeks back.

We are still largely Bullish in The Mid-Term and Price Action supports this View with the Macro-Uptrend… current Price Behavior looks toward the $900 Handle with Probability.

The $940.50’s Area is acting as larger Static Resistance in the Immediate-Term…and a Clean Clip of the $970’s Area is needed for overall Trend Resumption in my personal View.

Here is the Daily, so give it a Click for various Levels… and Post-Time is early evening for me at 1:00 GMT.

Crude Oil is seeing more “General” Strength than Gold is…as Gold is co tied yup in “Inflationary Sentiment Concerns”.

Crude has some Buoyancy from The Euro as well… as relatively decent Economic Data Points over the last month, in general, have provided increased Confidence in EuroZone Consumption… as well as in The U.S., where the Summer Driving Season is upon us fueled by Driving as a “cheaper” form of Transportation for Holidays in this Economic Climate.

Crude is in Consolidation on the IntraDay Perspective, but is clearly “Anchored” in Its Uptrend S.D. Channel out on the Daily Time-Cycle. While Crude is becoming Overbought with various Oscillators such as RSI… any Corrections seen will be most likely to bring in Bullish Builds as Price moves ever-closer to the “Coveted” $80 Level for OPEC.

We get back to Currencies with The Majors at 6:30/7:0 GMT for the “Currency Majors Technical Perspective” Report, so please join me then for some Immediate-Term Details on “The Four Siblings”!

As always… an Update to follow, so please come by for a visit as we prepare for the London/EuroZone Activity!