Greetings Everyone, and Welcome to Wednesday!

We prepare for the Bank of England Minutes to be released, as we look for any additional signs of increased Stimulus since they failed to do their “Allocated Increase” of 25B Sterling in additional Asset Purchases.

The Markets will be especially watchful for any Rhetoric or Indications of a “Timeline” of if and when this will occur…as well as the “possibility” of additional Policy since the BoE does have their “Eye on the Inflationary Ball” with its very sensitive Economy of late.

In addition, we will certainly watch the EIA Crude Inventory Builds Data Release as well… since Crude has been an interesting “Leading Indicator” of sorts… at lease concerning Sentiment in the last few weeks.

Let’s have a look at The Queen again… as well as GBP/JPY… where we already notice a literal “Grinding Halt” to Price Action on both Units ahead of The Minutes.

Here is The Hourly… where our Levels are basically unchanged from our earlier Update… as Price looks to hold the 1.6380’s Transitive Rollover Support Area in the Immediate-Term.

Give The Capture a Click, and Post-Time is 2:45 GMT.

Pound Yen is seeing very similar Price action as well… as Price looks to hold the 153.20’s/00 Handle in the Immediate-Term. We are already seeing continuation of the Yen Strength, as the Unit is off about 66 Pips or so for the Day already in “relative” terms.

A Breach of the Area will see the 152.30’s with ease for another “Re-Test” to form an Hourly Double-Bottom in the Near-Term if the Area holds.

We will surely check in with these Developments as we progress, so please stop back by frequently for more Updates… as I always look forward to all of your Visits!

Greetings again, Everyone!

We look to an IntraDay “Reversal” Day of Sentiment, as all of “The Basing” around the Units gives strong Momentum and Appreciation with slight Risk Appetite for the Day.

Crude Oil still languishes a bit, although Price did manage to pull out of the $58.00/50’s Consolidation Area… although we are under the $60.00 Handle again. 

Gold pulls a Break out of the Accumulation Range between $907.80’s Static Support and $914.00 Dynamic Resistance, with an $8.00 Appreciation as of Post-Time.

The Pound Yen pulls a clear “V” Reversal on The Hourly, as the entire 150.60’s Downleg is literally negated, as Price works through Dynamic Support Confluence at the 150.00 Handle with the July ‘08 50% Weekly Fib Variant.

Here is The Hourly View, so give it a Click for Levels, as we retain our Bear Flag Example for Reference.

Post-Time is 18:45 GMT.

We can say that our Hourly Bear Flag is still Valid and Intact, as Price breaks The Apex to the Downside… and simply Consolidates without reaching the Highs of The Apex at the 151.30’s Dynamic Resistance Levels.

This keeps Bias clearly to The Downside, with Bearish Views simply looking to sell into this Rally from the IntraDay View.

Stronger Bearish Views will look to maintain Patience here as we work through The Consolidation, and any Break of the 146.70’s will entice Selling Sentiment.

The Dow Correlation with the weaker Yen and Dollar is currently In Place, as The Dow is well-bid about 148 Points in Positive Territory.

Watch the Macro-Correlation moving into The Close, and I will be back with you then for another Update, as always!

Please join me then!

Greetings once again, Everyone and Welcome To Wednesday!

Let’s continue our numerous references and discussions to our Two “Risk-Aversion Partners-In-Crime”, The Yen and The Dollar.

Similar to my enjoyment and use of Market Correlations… we always must be aware of the “Caveat Emptor” that drives these Two as well: The Correlation Activity moves In and Out of Each Other with Consistency.

In the same fashion that we are mindful of, say, The Dow and S&P Correlations to The Yen Crosses… we are always Mindful of the fact that ALL  of these Units must first “Stand Alone” with their own characteristics… as their Correlating Activity ebbs and flows.

Let’s check in with The Yen as a Whole… and first up is my Friend and Colleague here on FXstreet, Valeria’s Favorite Unit, The Dollar Yen!

( P.S. - Do not tell Her this…  She will leave Buenos Aires and track me down in Phoenix… Body Parts will be strewn all over The Desert Southwest… as I am consumed by the 4000-Degree Heat! … hee hee…     ;-)

With all of my sarcasm aside, The Yen is surely ruling the Day over The Dollar in today’s Work in terms of coming off of our Asian-Pacific Sector Thoughts on The Asian Bourses picking up yesterday’s Bearish Sentiments.

For a bit of Perspective, let’s check in on The Monthly View of USD/JPY, where seeing The High- 80’s Area of last December and January is certainly plausible… ( although this is unlikely without a significant prior correction being a Monthly View).

Give The Captures a Click for Various Levels of Reference and Commentary, with Post-Time being 6:45 GMT.

The Daily gives us more Clarity to work with, as Price remains in a Wide Downtrend Channel here with Dynamic Trendlines on both sides. Price continues to Breach significant Daily Static Support Levels,  and the Static 93.50 Support Area is certainly In View.

The Hourly shows the Breach of the 78.6% Fib Variant of the Full January 1995 79.76 Low to the 147.76 Highs as a Confluence Area.

Surely a very Long-Term Fib View here… although it does remain Valid in Illustrating the Deep Yen Strength we have seen since April of this Year.

My 6:30GMT  “Currency Majors Technical Perspective” Report  shows this exact Immediate-Term Bearish Sentiment with our “Four Major Siblings” as well that we are all very familiar with lately!

Of course, we will see what “Interesting Rhetoric” emerges from The G-8 today as we move through our Updates today… with the possibility of seeing some Accumulation leading to Consolidation at least in The Immediate-Term across The Markets.

If The Yen is any Bellwether of Indication though… The Idea looks to be off in the Distance a ways, doesn’t it!

 Greetings again, Everyone!

Crude Inventories come off a bit  down more than expected @ 3.8M, while Gasoline Builds rose by 3.9 M Barrels and Distillates also gained 2.1M Barrels. Refinery Utilization rises 1.2% to 87.1, as our Crude August Futures Contract remains with minimal Reaction and locked in Its IntraDay Range.

The BoE is concerned overall with a “longer-than-considered” Expansion Policy as well as a Concern for “Inflationary Pressures”.

Interest Rate Considerations out of The Bank of England will only be accommodated on rising CPI, as well as a Conflict with Oil Appreciation being a Factor in CPI in the first place.

 We check in with a slightly weaker Crude Contract, as well as The Queen looking for Daylight towards the 1.6600 Handle once again.

Commentary is above, so give The Captures a Click for Levels… Post-Time is 15:30 GMT.

Crude looks to maintain the tight Range Price is “anchored” in now between the $66.50’s and the $69.50’s on the IntraDay View. A Clip of the Resistance here sees a New “Transitive Rollover” being built as Resistance@ $69.50 noe becomes Support.

Maintenance of the Area sees additional Appreciation to $70-73 Resistance in the near-Term if Sentiment continues along with the Correlation to Dollar Weakness.

The Queen is still caught in a very Clear Daily range, as we are at The “Mean” of the Area, and need some “Outliers” in Price to work with on this Time-Cycle.

The Hourly provides more Specific Clarity, in that we see the 1.6480’s now providing a “Bounce” from Dynamic Support. Clearance will see a Continuation through the 1.6600 Handle… especially if The FOMC Rhetoric is largely “In -Line” with Expectation of Rhetoric and some Dovish Sentiment.

As we move along… NOW  we expect the “Quiet Muted” Consolidative Activity to really be clearly seen moving into FMOC Territory in less than 3 Hours.

While I personally do not expect  any “true” Importance out of the Interest Rate Equation… The Key will be all Rhetoric and Plans for either Maintaining, Expanding, or Contracting the Quantitative Easing Aspects.

We will see minimal Reaction if we hear the “Same” Rhetoric of Interest Rates remaining at current levels, but especially if we hear Q.E. Concerns remaining Stable and Unchanged.

Please join me yet once again for another Update as we see Reaction, check on The Currency Units, as well as The Indices as The Release is “digested”!

I will see all of You hopefully Soon!

Greetings again, Everyone!

As expected, we continue to see Accumulation as we move closer and closer the The FOMC Decision, as well as Durable Goods, New Home Sales, and the EIA Oil Inventories.

( We will check in with these Topics in our next couple of Updates, as Price will need to “digest” and see New Areas of Reference moving into The FOMC… )

We are seeing Key Levels of Support and Resistance being respected across most Units as of this Writing, as Price is already defining Its Ranges and Areas ahead of Data-Risk Events.

Here is the GBP/JPY, for example… which is Illustrative of clear Reference Levels.

Give The Capture a Click for Levels, and Commentary above… Post-Time is 7:30 GMT.

Price holds firmly at the “Transitive Rollover” Area of  the 157.60’s with Weekly 61.8% Fib Variant Downleg Confluence.

A Breach sees the 158.80 Daily Resistance Resistance Area… while a Rejection sees a return to Dynamic Suport at the 156.30’s Level. Whiel slight Upside Appreciation is favored, Consolidation through “Muted” Action may beseen leading into Risk-Events moving forward, as Price works the defined Range here.

Several more Updates will be on the way today, in consideration of the several Risk-Events we mentioned!

In the Interim, please have a look at The 7:00 GMT “Currency Majors Technical Perspective” Report  for more Immediate-Term Detail.

I also invite you to have a look at the new Special Section I have developed with FXstreet for Fundamental Analysis is under the Education Tab of the FXstreet Home Page.

The Section is called ”Fundamental Forex Foundations”, which will be a Series of Topics focused on the Majors Data Points we see that directly “Affect” Currency Traders and those in the Foreign Exchange World.

The First Two Installments are there…  “The Federal Reserve and The FOMC Committee”…  a timely Topic we are dealing with right now, and then  “The Non-Farm Payrolls Data”  released a bit early for NFP in a couple of weeks!

Please join me soon for more Updates as we continue with our Active Day!

Greetings again, Everyone!

We enter into The European Session with EuroZone Equity Futures bidding lower on the back of slightly Negative Bourse Movement in the Asian-Pacific Sectors. From the IntraDay Views, we are seeing a bit of “Mixed Sentiment” as The Dollar and The Yen find some Disconnect with Correlations.

Both Risk-Averse Currencies see Strength in most Majors, albeit the Swissy is beginning to show early Signs of Accumulation and Neutrality. This may be signaling Behavior leading to Clear Consolidation… that will “bleed-out” into other Units moving forward.

While The Fiber and Cable show clear Downtrends, the Strength of The Yen is eclipsing The Dollar, as a Sentiment Shift develops due to eventual “Muting” Behavior ahead of The FOMC Decision tomorrow.

The Euro Pound is Illustrative of this current ”Easing Momentum” on The Hourly View, and here is The Capture with Commentary above, so give it a Click as always.

Post-Time is 7:15 GMT.

While the Hourly Uptrend Channel is clearly in View… We can observe Accumulation which will lead into Solid Consolidation if the Dynamic Magenta Range Holds between the .8480-8510 Levels.

Continuation sees the .8530’s Static Resistance Area In View with even a Reach to the .8600 Handle in the near-Term… although out on the Mid-Term Larger Views… the .8250’s still remains Deep Static Support due to the “Heavy” Euro and resilient Pound moving forward.

We will check on The Unit as we move along, and for more Immediate-Term Detail of the varying “Degrees” of Dollar and Yen Strength and the “MIxed Sentiment” we spoke of… please have a look at the  “Currency Majors Technical Perspective” Report  just published.

As always, please join me for several more Updates today, as we move closer and closer into FOMC Territory, while also being Mindful of the 14:00 GMT U.S. Existing Home Sales Data Point as well!

Greetings again, Everyone!

We see the other “Area of Focus” on the Current Dollar and Yen Intra-Day Weakness, as The Yen also follows several Key Areas and Channels moving forward.

Here are the Hourly Views of EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY with Commentary above, so give the Captures a Click for various Reference Levels.

Post-Time is 7:10 GMT.

The Euro Yen looks towards the Daily Static Resistance Area of the 138.30’s for a Larger “Re-Test” of the 139.20’s Resistance Level. If Price can be Held above this Area and form a New Resistance-Becomes-Support “Transitive Rollover” Area… then the 140.00 and 141.00 Areas are back In View in the Near-Term. Any Downside-Risk Corrections may be limited back to the 137.10’s Static Support, down to just slightly out of The Channel at the 136.50’s Dynamic Support Area.

While The Queen looks towards 1.6800 in the near-Term, Her Cross, Pound Yen, looks towards the 163.00 Figure in the near-Term on the back of some of that Pound Momentum. Continuation through The Figure sees the 164.00 Handle next, as any significant Corrections should be Contained in the Near-Term by the 159.00/158.50’s Static Support Areas.

As always, plenty of Updates as we move throughout the Final Trading Day of the Week, and for more Immediate-Term Detail on the Four Majors, please have a look at the just-published  “Currency Majors Technical Perspective” Report.

Please Join Me Again, and I Hope to See You Soon!

Greetings again, Everyone!

We focus in on the continuing Depreciation of Cable, as a clear Downtrend Channel continues from the IntraDay Perspective.

While the Correction looks solid and rather Ominous… from the Daily View we can simply observe a logical Correction relevant to the Long-Term Uptrend Appreciation we have seen for 3 months now…

The Macro-Political situation with Gordon Brown continues which certainly plays into the Sentiment here… although Technicals define this Price Behavior with more Clarity and Justification.

Here are The Captures with Commentary above, so give them a Click for Various Levels of Reference.

Post-Time is 7:45 GMT.

On the Daily View, 1.5750 is the next Static Support Level, as a Breach sees the 1.5470’s Weekly Downtrend Fib Variant in the Neat-Term of Depreciation continues.

An Upside “Bounce” from the 1.5750’s Area will see a return to the 1.5900-1.6000 Areas as price attempts to climb back again towards Its Highs.

The Hourly Capture provides more Clarity, as The Reversal is Symmetrically Valid and gives clear Indications with an IntraDay Hourly Fibonacci Variant applied to the Downside.

The same levels of 1.5900-1.600 are “Clustered” as potential Corrective Areas as mentioned in the Daily View.

( The Caveat here being the Risk of executing Fibonacci Calculations to “Open” Candles… something only done here for Illustrative Purposes… )

More Immediate Detail on The Pound and the other Majors can be found in the  7:00 GMT “Currency Majors Technical Perspective” Report  just published, so please have a look for some other Thoughts on Technical and Sentiment as we begin The Week.

Of course, more Updates to come as always, so please join me throughout The Day!

Greetings, Everyone and a Happy Saturday to All!

Writing-Time is 7 A.M. for me, so it is 14:00 GMT.

I thought I would add a few Thoughts today on all of the Rhetoric surrounding the “Superior” Non-Farm Payrolls Data we saw yesterday.

At least The Media would have us believe this deeply Premature Sentiment.

As I mentioned yesterday… In my personal View… there is nothing glowingly “Superior” or “Positive” about 9.4% Unemployment.

There is nothing deeply Positive about literally  5 unemployed Persons for every 1 Job Opening.

Now… don’t start calling me a “Perma-Bear” and making Plans again for The Firing Squad!      

I am certainly pleased with the overall Sentiment of Data we have seen in recent Months, with subtle Basing in many Fundamental Areas… I just feel The Bigger Picture is not being considered here from the Daily Information that the Layman Non-Trading Population receives.

As Traders, we know where to look for Confirmation of REAL Data that we see… we know where to go to get a “Measure of Sentiment”… as we have our Quality Newswires, Price Charts, and each other… that the Layman Public simply does not have.

We know not to take things at Face Value… and dig a little Deeper into the Data and Information.

Let’s look at the “spotlight Currency” of the Week…The Queen… to Illustrate my point here.

Very Simple… as we all do this all the time.

Here is The “Headline” Mainstream View.

“Oh Wow!… Look at that!…The British Pound is on a Roll!… The strength is unbelievable!… The Pound is back for sure!… Look at Her go!…”

Here is the Hourly of the Trend Mid-Week…

…And here is the Dollar Strength to Negate that same Hourly trend…

BUT… “Look at Her go!” ???…

Hmm… The Queen is a bit “tempered” now, isn’t She… when we See her on the Weekly View.

My Point here is just like with Currency and other Products We work with each Day… We always get out there and look at The Bigger Picture.

The same should be said with The Global Financial Situation.

Positive Data Points for One Release over One Month Does NOT a Recovery Make!!!

Have a Fine Saturday, Everyone and I will see you tomorrow!

Greetings, Everyone and Welcome to Friday!

Our final Trading Day of the week certainly sees no “Rest for the Weary” as they say… as U.S. GDP, The EuroZone CPI, and plenty of other Data keep Traders busy all the way through until Happy Hour!

With all of the Commotion surrounding U.S. Bond Yields and the infamous “Inflation vs. Deflation” Debate going on here in The States… the Japanese have certainly taken advantage of this situation by the Outflows out of the U.S. and Higher U.S. Bond Yields in the last few days.

This has caused the Yen to “weaken” which may appear as part of our “Counter-Intuition” Menu of Tricks.

BUT…The Key here is what is happening with their OWN Bonds and Yields, as they deal with their falling 10Y Notes by buying up… and “Borrowing” from the Surplus of U.S. Treasuries.

Now..after a Fall for a couple of Days… they may begin to rise on  Rhetoric of a “Dovish” Recovery taking some time in Japan.

The Yen Itself handles this by some Initial Weakness through Thursday… but now simply looks to Stabilize and establish IntraDay Ranges full of Consolidation.

Of course… the Current State of The Yen in the Immediate-Term is resting on some Inherent Strength as Industrial Output in Japan gained significantly… which may play right into our Conversation about Capital Inflows coming through the Sea of Japan Inland for a nice “Breath of Fresh Air” for the Japanese Economy as a whole.

 We check with, in my personal opinion, what are the Three Main Yen Crosses…  EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY, and AUD/JPY on the Hourly Views to see this “Muted” Action as of Writing-Time.

Give the Captures a Click for Levels and Commentary, and Post-Time is 1:30 GMT.

Be sure to join me in about 5 Hours for our final 6:30/7:00 GMT “Currency Majors Technical Perspective” Report for this Week… and another Blog Update, of course!

See You Then!