Posted on June 12, 2009 at 10:39 in Commentary, Live Webinars by Tim SalemNo Comments »

Greetings once again, Everyone!

As we move throughout The U.S. Session… The Dollar and Yen are seeing consistent Volatility as they Work within their Larger Respective Ranges.

Gold and Oil can still be Valid “Indicators” of Sentiment here… as their Corrections signify Weaker Commodity Price for these Two Units today… and does NOT mean a Stronger “Fair Value” for The Dollar Itself… in my personal View.

While these Corrections may certainly continue and bode well for The Dollar Bulls… to see any real significant inherent Strength… The Dollar needs to Clip Key Levels of Resistance on Corrections with most Currency Units.

Of Course… We can view this Several Ways….

The Dollar Bulls will already be in Positions here on Counter-Trend Sentiment… or they will be waiting for Breaks of Key Levels to continue on and participate in further Counter ( Dollar and Yen) Strength.

On the “Other Side of The Fence”, Traders who favor Trend Work will look for Key Retracement and Corrective Areas to Hold for more Bullish Builds to resume The Underlying Trends and participate in this Fashion.

Now… whatever “Type” of Trader you find yourself to be… The “Universal Key” in my personal View… is to have Patience and WAIT for Key levels to be either Respected or Rejected as we move forward.

Let’s have a look at The USD/JPY and The AUD/USD on the Hourly IntraDay Basis, as we “measure the Depth” of the Ranges and Corrections.

Give the Captures a Click for Levels of Reference and Commentary above… and Post-Time is 15:40 GMT.

 

 

The Hourly Dollar Yen sees Clear Range-Bound Consolidation…although Dollar Strength is in an Uptrend Hourly Channel.

Continuation sees The Unit looking for the Highs at the 101.00 Handle in the Mid-Term if the underlying Momentum can be maintained.

 

 

 

 

The Aussie shows the Clear Corrective Sentiment we have been speaking of… which is similar in most of the Stronger-Beta-Units such as The Queen and even The Kiwi.

 

 

 

 

 

 

As always… I will be back with you for a few more Updates to end our Trading Week!

Please Stay Tuned!

:-)

 

 

 


Posted on June 8, 2009 at 2:38 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »

 

Greetings again, Everyone!

We focus in on the continuing Depreciation of Cable, as a clear Downtrend Channel continues from the IntraDay Perspective.

While the Correction looks solid and rather Ominous… from the Daily View we can simply observe a logical Correction relevant to the Long-Term Uptrend Appreciation we have seen for 3 months now…

The Macro-Political situation with Gordon Brown continues which certainly plays into the Sentiment here… although Technicals define this Price Behavior with more Clarity and Justification.

Here are The Captures with Commentary above, so give them a Click for Various Levels of Reference.

Post-Time is 7:45 GMT.

On the Daily View, 1.5750 is the next Static Support Level, as a Breach sees the 1.5470’s Weekly Downtrend Fib Variant in the Neat-Term of Depreciation continues.

An Upside “Bounce” from the 1.5750’s Area will see a return to the 1.5900-1.6000 Areas as price attempts to climb back again towards Its Highs.

 

 

 

 

 

The Hourly Capture provides more Clarity, as The Reversal is Symmetrically Valid and gives clear Indications with an IntraDay Hourly Fibonacci Variant applied to the Downside.

The same levels of 1.5900-1.600 are “Clustered” as potential Corrective Areas as mentioned in the Daily View.

( The Caveat here being the Risk of executing Fibonacci Calculations to “Open” Candles… something only done here for Illustrative Purposes… )

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

More Immediate Detail on The Pound and the other Majors can be found in the  7:00 GMT “Currency Majors Technical Perspective” Report  just published, so please have a look for some other Thoughts on Technical and Sentiment as we begin The Week.

Of course, more Updates to come as always, so please join me throughout The Day!

:-)

 

 

 

 


Posted on June 5, 2009 at 2:24 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »

 

Greetings Again, Everyone!

With the Political Fallout in the U.K. with the whole Gordon Brown Situation and Personnel… The Cable is seeing significant Depreciation ahead of U.K. Producer Price Index Data due in less than 2 Hours, as well as Non-Farm Payrolls on the way.

The Developments in the Story are everywhere, so they will not be Visited here.

What is Unique about The Sentiment in Price is we are now back inside our Long-Term Daily Uptrend Channel with The Queen… which is Significant since Price has not been back in the Channel since last Week.

Here is the Daily View… with Clear Violation of the Solid 1.6050’s Daily Static Support.

Give the Captures a Click for Levels of Reference, and Post-Time is 7:20 GMT.

 

The Key here is if Depreciation Continues, the next Mid-Term Level is largely back at the 1.5750’s/00 Area.

( My Long-Term View is confirmed here… as The Weekly Chart has a Clear “Shooting Star” Candle Formation… signifying a strong Reversal Tendency into next Week… )

 

 

 

 

 

The Hourly provides a little more Clarity, as Price is Anchored on the Dynamic Support Level of the Weekly 50% Fib Variant from the  September Downleg and the 1.6050 Area.

 

 

 

 

 

We are already seeing some Consolidation, so PPI may provide a slight Catalyst here, as Sentiment is largely Bearish in the Immediate-Term.

 

The  “Currency Majors Technical Perspective”  was just Published, so feel free to have a look for more Detail on the Immediate-Term as The Majors prepare for NFP  in a few hours!

 

 

Of course… I will be with you for several more Updates as we progress throughout the Trading Day!

:-)

 

 


Posted on June 1, 2009 at 2:29 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »

 

Greetings again, Everyone!

A Brief Update as The Queen continues with perhaps the “strongest” Trend ( with the Aussie) we have in The Markets of late… as She attempt to keep The Euro from any more significant Correction in the Immediate-Term.

We arrive a new “Transitive Rollover”, with Fib Variant Extensions from the Hourly 1.5853 Upleg arrive with Accuracy.

The Elipsed and Highlighted Areas still remain Valid on the Hourly View… as Corrections are still Warranted in the Near-Term.

( They may not be seen in the Immediate-Term, as we approach the 1.6400 Handle as we spoke of during the last Post… )

Here is the Hourly Capture, so give it a Click for Levels…. and Post-Time for this Update is 7:30 GMT.

 

 

 

 

 

The Euro Pound sees the L.R. Channel Mid-Line as a significant Area of Reference in measuring Speed and Momentum of Pound Strength, so give the Capture a Click for Commentary.

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

We have U.S. Data on the way to begin The Week with Core P.C.E. and Personal Income and Construction Spending… although not before German, EU, and U.K. PMI.

The 7:00 GMT “Currency Majors Technical Perspective” Report  has just been published, so please feel free to have a look for some Immediate to Near-Term Detail on the Four Major Units!

As always, I will have more Updates on the way as we observe the Strength and Depth of these Corrective Sentiments that are currently attempting to materialize as we move forward.

;-)

 

 

 


Posted on May 28, 2009 at 2:10 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »

 

Greetings Once Again, Everyone!

The Asian Equity Bourses continue an Onslaught of Activity, as the Yen Itself get pummeled with Japanese Outflow Sentiment and Retail Account scooping up The Yen Crosses.

Our Bullish Friend, the NZD/JPY, rolls over on this Sentiment with Japanese Retail Sales clocking in at - 2.9% Year-Over-year.

The “Bleedout” from all of this has prompted Follow-Through with the Swissy Unit, as well as the Aussie Dollar seeing Institutional Pressures from Bullish Builds coming in on Retracements.

In my personal View…  this will Reverse the Asian Activity Course… as the AUD/USD and the Yen Crosses will see increased Bullish Sentiment as the European Markets open for our Day.

Let’s bring the Kiwi Yen back in, as well as the “Other Side of the Fence” with the Aussie Dollar to see how The Dollar reacted in Overnight Asian Activity.

Here are the Hourly Views, so give them a Click for Commentary, and Post-Time is 7:10 GMT.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

As always, here is the 7:00 GMT “Currency Majors Technical Perspective” Report  to check on more Immediate-Levels with our “Four Siblings”.

Watch for German Unemployment Data Points and EU Consumer Confidence in the Near-Term, so check your various Support-and-Resistance Levels as we move forward in early European Trading!

As always… Please Join me again soon for more Updates!

;-)

 

 

 

 

 


Posted on May 27, 2009 at 16:50 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »

 

Greetings for our Final Tuesday Post!

( Do not worry… I will be back as usual for Thursday’s “Big Blog” Post in a few hours…  ;-)

As the Dow peels off the majority of Its Gains today… 173.47 to be exact… Can we really call it a Neutral Day since the Index was Up about this much throughout The Day in the first Place?…

Semantics,  I suppose… So It Is What It Is.

The S&P 500 also corrects by about 17 Points, as that “Coveted” 880 Levels still calls !

We have Gold and The Queen also falling with similar “Normal” Retracement Price Action over the last few hours.

( Incidently… The Euro is feeling more Pain as well in early Asian Trading… coming off 55 Pips as of this Writing…)

Her are the Hourly Views of Gold and Her Majesty for Reference, so give the Captures a Click for Commentary.

Post-Time for me 21:50 GMT.

 

Gold corrects from Its Daily Static Resistance of 957.07 down to just-above Dynamic Support at 948.55.

 

 

 

 

Her Majesty also decides to “Rest” a bit… as She comes off of a 1.6083 IntraDay High, and is finding  ”Resting Support” with the Hourly 50EMA. 

 Continuation here as we move into The Asian-Pacific Sectors may see the Daily Pivot of 1.5905 and 1.5869 dynamically… where that’s right !… You guessed It!… Bullish Builds may come in as Asia continues the Currency Momentum of The Unit.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Equity Bourses of Asia may look to open a bit Lower on the Pivot of the slight Dow Losses… but this may simply be motivated by Covering, as Bullish Views look for better Effective-Cost.

 

 

Please join me in a while for Tomorrow’s Opening Post, and be sure to watch the Asian Exchanges for any Correlations that may come into View… especially with the Yen Crosses !

:-)

 

 


Posted on May 26, 2009 at 8:23 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »

 

Greetings Once Again, Everyone!

Corrective nature we spoke of about 6 hours ago has come to Fruition with the Dollar and Yen Strengthening on a slightly IntraDay Basis. This is evident in most Majors as well as the Crosses, and the “Catalyst” of more Issues out of North Korea keep the Asian Sectors largely “Flat” to “Negative”… hence we are seeing U.S. Equity Futures Bidding Down a bit as well.

More Housing Issues are also In Play… with my own Fair City of Phoenix topping the List with a 36% Drop in Depreciative Value on the Case-Schiller Index.

The S& P looks now to the 880 Static Support, as Gold and Crude Oil come off of their Bullish Sentiment of the last week as well.

In my personal View… “Full-Blown Risk Aversion” is not really back… and we are seeing Sentiment here for more Attractive Effective Costs for Bullish Builds… as we have seen so far in The Fiber and Cable.

The Swissy is in an interesting Area… as the SNB still looks for active Intervention in keeping The Currency weak and “Pegged” around the 1.0800 Handle with The Unit. We Clipped the Descending Triangle we put on The Daily a couple weeks back, and Accumulation may now be “In The Works” as the 1.1150’s holds a new “Transitive Rollover” Area.

Here is the Daily of the Swissy… as well as The Hourly Views of The Euro and Gold to get a little “Snapshot” of the various Corrections and Pullbacks.

Give the Captures a Click, as always… and Post-Time is 13:20 GMT.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Let’s check in a bit later as the Institutional Block Orders are absorbed in the Equities, and we watch for the Coveted 880 Figure on the S&P 500.

Gold is still a Major Factor to watch, since Its “Inverse” Correlation with The Dollar is largely back Intact… this may give us a little “Window” on The Dollar Behavior moving forward.

:-)

 

 

 


Posted on May 26, 2009 at 1:49 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »

 

Greetings Again, Everyone!

While we are still locked in these Sideways Ranges of Consolidation on most Units from an IntraDay Perspective, we are seeing some Activity as the European Markets and London gear up for Institutional Return.

Of course… it is my Murphy’s Law Equation… where 5 Minutes after the “Currency Majors Technical Perspective” Report is published… Activity comes into Play!     ;-)

( At 7:00 GMT now… Catalysts do come into View with more Short-Range Launches out of North Korea, GDP out of Germany comes up short, and European Equities are opening lower…)

The Activity so far is not relatively Significant, as Catalysts are needed all around to Clip all of these Tight Ranges we are seeing, although after “Watching Paint Dry” in The Markets yesterday… it is nice to see some Volatility begin to emerge!

The Macro-Political Situation with North Korea brought some slight Risk-Aversion back into View from IntraDay Perspectives, although the “Motivation” here maybe simply for Bullish Builds to find more favorable Effective-Costs as the Dollar and Yen may strengthen slightly in this type of Climate.

We use the EUR/JPY for Illustration here, as the Euro Itself is showing a Decrease in Apprecation. This may certainly “Bleed Out” to the other Yen Crosses as well…at least in the Immediate-Term.

Here is the Hourly Capture, so give it a Click for Commentary and a Key Fib Variant that may come into Play.

Post-Time is 6:50 GMT.

 

 

 

 

Please join me again as we pick up more Liquidity and Volume with a return to a “Normal Trading Day” across the Globe… and we see if out Dollar and Yen Ideas come to Fruition after all!

:-)

 

 


Posted on May 19, 2009 at 6:06 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »

 

Greetings again, Everyone!

As we spoke of in our earlier Post, the Asian sectors did pick up on the positive Strength of the U.S. Equities, as the Nikkei gained 251 Points on the back of the Dow’s 235-Point gain.

We are still seeing our Idea of “Delayed” Corrections, especially with The Queen, as the British Pound has rallied to fresh 2009 Highs, bringing Momentum that has spilled “Blood on the Streets” for any Dollar and Yen Longs that may have been In Play of late…

 

Here are the GBP/USD and GBP/JPY Hourly Views, so give them a Click for Commentary.

Post-Time is 11:00 GMT.

 

The Break of Major static Resistance @ the 1.5370’s has The Queen looking in the Mid-Term to the 1.5700 Figure if the current Behavior continues. Any Corrective Sentiment will likely be held at 1.5350’s Area of current Daily Static Support.

 

 

 

The Pound Yen also sees significant Appreciation with similar Price Action, as any Retracement prior to a run for the 150.50’s Resistance will see the 147.20’s, or a new “Transitive Rollover” from Resistance-To-Support clocking in at the 148.00/20’s Handle Area.

 

 

 

 

 

The 7:00 GMT “Currency Majors Technical Perspective” will give some IntraDay Insight into Near- and Mid-Term Levels, despite being published prior to the Current Price Breaks we have seen.

We will check in after the NYSE Open, to see how Equities pick up on the Bullish Price Action… as Equity Futures are certainly Well-Bid as of Writing-Time!

:-)

 

 


Posted on May 15, 2009 at 2:17 in Uncategorized by Tim SalemNo Comments »

 

Greetings Again, Everyone!

As we enter the London Session for a Brief Update, we see significant IntraDay Correction with Dollar and Yen Strength, so let’s use the USD/CAD and GBP/JPY for Illustrative Examples here as new Key Levels are potentially seen.

Here are the Hourly Views, so give them a Click for Commentary.

Post-Time is 7:15 GMT.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Please have a look at the just-posted Currency Majors Technical Perspective Report, as the Correlations will be evident there as the Chart Captures were just slightly Pre-Mature in illustrating this Activity!

;-)

 

 

 

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