Posted on July 21, 2009 at 12:15 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »

 

Greetings once again, Everyone!

The IntraDay Market Corrections we have spoken of have surely come to Fruition, as The Dollar and The Yen strengthen on overall Market Sentiments.

The Dow and The S&P are largely “flat” coming into additional Bernanke Testimony, as we are, once again, dealing with Ranging and somewhat “Directionless’ Market activity moving forward.

We can see with The current EUR/USD Activity that even though we have plenty of IntraDay Volatility and Macro-Factors to use as Impetus for Movement… We really are still dealing with these “larger” Consolidations of Activity out on the larger Time-Cycles.

 Here is The Capture, so give it a Click for this Range we are speaking of, as price currently sits on the 1.4080’s Dynamic Support Areas. Continued Clearance here to the Downside may certainly see a “Re-Test” of the 1.3800 Handle of Mid-Term Support.

Give the Captures a Click, as always, and Post-Time is 17:15 GMT.

 

 

 

The Hourly View sees clear Delineation of the Price Appreciation, as we reverse with probable Profit-Taking and Equities Correlation weakness as we move forward.

A Clip of this Dynamic Support can certainly see the 1.4080’s “In Concert” with the overall Daily View.

 

 

 

 

 

As Bernanke continues on, we will monitor any additional Rhetoric moving forward and I will have an Update for you as we move towards the NYSE Close!

Please stop by for a visit then!

:-)

 

 

 


Posted on June 23, 2009 at 2:15 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »

 

Greetings again, Everyone!

We enter into The European Session with EuroZone Equity Futures bidding lower on the back of slightly Negative Bourse Movement in the Asian-Pacific Sectors. From the IntraDay Views, we are seeing a bit of “Mixed Sentiment” as The Dollar and The Yen find some Disconnect with Correlations.

Both Risk-Averse Currencies see Strength in most Majors, albeit the Swissy is beginning to show early Signs of Accumulation and Neutrality. This may be signaling Behavior leading to Clear Consolidation… that will “bleed-out” into other Units moving forward.

While The Fiber and Cable show clear Downtrends, the Strength of The Yen is eclipsing The Dollar, as a Sentiment Shift develops due to eventual “Muting” Behavior ahead of The FOMC Decision tomorrow.

The Euro Pound is Illustrative of this current ”Easing Momentum” on The Hourly View, and here is The Capture with Commentary above, so give it a Click as always.

Post-Time is 7:15 GMT.

 

 

While the Hourly Uptrend Channel is clearly in View… We can observe Accumulation which will lead into Solid Consolidation if the Dynamic Magenta Range Holds between the .8480-8510 Levels.

Continuation sees the .8530’s Static Resistance Area In View with even a Reach to the .8600 Handle in the near-Term… although out on the Mid-Term Larger Views… the .8250’s still remains Deep Static Support due to the “Heavy” Euro and resilient Pound moving forward.

 

 

 

 

 

We will check on The Unit as we move along, and for more Immediate-Term Detail of the varying “Degrees” of Dollar and Yen Strength and the “MIxed Sentiment” we spoke of… please have a look at the  “Currency Majors Technical Perspective” Report  just published.

As always, please join me for several more Updates today, as we move closer and closer into FOMC Territory, while also being Mindful of the 14:00 GMT U.S. Existing Home Sales Data Point as well!

:-)

 

 

 


Posted on June 22, 2009 at 8:28 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »

 

Greetings again, Everyone!

As The Euro and other Majors work with slight Dollar Strength to begin the Week, most Yen Crosses are finding the same Behavior with The strengthening Yen.

Despite rather “Negative” Data Points out of Japan last night, we can recognize that the Strength in both of our “Risk Appetite/Risk Averse Brothers” is due NOT to their inherent healthy Strength… but perhaps more to the Unhealthy Uncertainty of their Base Units.

Of course, Euro Yen would fits this Descriptor, with all that ‘weighs” on the Euro today, but it is more of a Curiosity with say, the “Stronger” Base Currencies such as the Aussie in AUD/JOY and even The Queen in GBP/JPY.

Let’s pull up the Hourlies and see where we are, as The U.S. Equity Futures are bidding lower which may hold Its Correlation to The Crosses as we open in about 10 Minutes time.

Give The Captures a Click, and I have Commentary above for you… Post-Time is 13:20 GMT.

 

The Aussie Yen finds a clear Corrective Bounce from the 76.00 Daily Static Support Area, which certainly may be Breached in favor of the Dynamic Supporting Area with the Magenta 75.30’s Level. A resurgence through the 76.80’s will find, perhaps, some Bullish Builds coming in from the initial 76.00 Support, and continuing through to 78.20’s Dynamic Resistance in the Near-Term.

 

 

 

 

 

Pound Yen sees solid Bearish Hourly Momentum, as the Daily Head and Shoulders Formation is coming to Fruition as Price heads to the 154.80’s “Neckline” of the Formation for Static Support.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Please join me again for more Updates as we move through this somewhat “quiet” Day… where we are already seeing some “Muted” activity in expectation of this Weeks Fed Meeting.

See You Soon!

;-)

 

 

 


Posted on June 22, 2009 at 2:04 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »

 

Greetings again, Everyone!

We will stay with The Fiber for another Post, as a Key Market Driver for the Unit is due soon with The German IFO Business Climate Sentiment Release @ 8:00 GMT.

The Data acts largely as a Leading Indicator due to Its Sample Size and Correlations with  general EU Conditions.

Current Price Behavior in The Fiber sees the 1.3850’s Static Support holding the Pair, as Price breached the 1.3900 Area. Any Continuation to the Downside with a Breach of the Larger Uptrend Line that we had mentioned in our Previous Post will be decidedly Bearish.

Price will then have in Its Sight the 38.2%  Corrective Area of the Daily April 22nd Upleg to act as Dynamic Support in the near-Term.

Here is the Hourly View, so give the Capture a Click for Levels of Reference.

Post-Time is 7:00 GMT.

 

 

 

 

 

The recently-published “Currency Majors Technical Perspective” Report  is available for additional Detail on an Immediate-Term View with The Euro, as well as the other Majors.

As we see these little “Breaks” through The Majors, we will continue to monitor the Depth of their reach, as we move along throughout the Day with more Updates, as always!

I hope Everyone will join me Soon!

:-)

 

 

 


Posted on June 18, 2009 at 16:08 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »

 

Greetings again, Everyone!

We arrive at The NYSE Close with Equities and The indices in slightly Positive Territory.

Gold and Oil still remain “Key Market Drivers” here concerning The Dollar… as Inflationary Concerns ease back just a bit. Mixed Price Action is Seen across most markets overall, albeit the relatively “Noisy” and “Heavy” Volatility and Whipsaw Behavior today.

The Queen illustrates the larger wide Swings quite well from an IntraDay perspective… as does The Swissy… which shows perhaps the most “Solid” Dollar Strength around The Units.

Give these two Captures a Click for Levels and Commentary above, and Post-Time is 21:00 GMT.

 

Cable gives us the “Spotlight” Unit for Volatility and really shows no signs of Easement in The near-Term. The Swings of 200-Pip Margins back and forth surely provided Opportunity and perhaps Frustration for IntraDay Traders moving within the constant 1.6211-1.6400 Range.

Slightly Bullish Sentiment coming off of the recent Swing-High from Support has Impetus to move through 1.6400 Resistance on the slight Hourly Pullback we are seeing as of Writing-Time.

The Asian Bourses picking up on the relatively positive U.S. Session Activity may be the Short-Term “Catalyst” needed here to see Fruition.

 

 

 

 

The Swissy, on the “Other Side of the Fence”, is our “Spotlight” Unit for Dollar Strength… and NOT because The Dollar is inherently Strong of Its own Merit.

In my personal View… We always are dealing with various Levels of Strong-vs. Weak in The Currency Markets, and in this case… The Swissy Itself is Weak due to The SNB and B.I.S. Interventions we saw earlier in the Day.

We see Price forming a New “Transitive Rollover” Area at the 1.0850’s as relatively Bullish Sentiment is still In Favor at the moment. Any Corrective Behavior sees a “Pause” at the 50% Fib Variant of the June 11th Daily Upleg… on the way to Static 1.0760 Support.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Please join me in a few Hours for our “Big Post” for Friday… as we observe hoe The Asian-Pacific Sectors pick up on the U.S. Activity today!

Please join me Soon!

:-)

 

 

 


Posted on June 17, 2009 at 10:13 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »

 

Greetings again, Everyone!

We are about 90 Minutes into The NYSE Open, with Equities and The indices largely  “Flat” in early Trading as the Futures Block-Orders still come into The Markets.

Gold and Crude Oil see Depreciation overnight and well as The Dollar and Yen seeing general Strength… but eclipsed for a moment on The Vapid CPI Data Points earlier, as well as the more Recent Current Account Deficit…

( Increasing Deficit?… Really?… What a Shock!…)

OK… pardon my “CVJ Guys” Humor… and for those of you wondering… I sent them away for some Psychological Conditioning in the Deserts here in Arizona…     ;-)

 

We check in with Gold and Crude on the IntraDay Levels, as EIA Crude Inventories Data sees Crude down 3.9M Barrels which is Offset by Gasoline Builds which showed a  massive increase of 3.4M Barrels.

Give the Captures a Click, and Post-Time is 15:10 GMT.

 

 

Crude sells off on the Initial Data, as Bearish Momentum already in existence fuels the Behavior.

A Clip of the $70’s Area on the Correction may induce additional selling Pressure… as a Bounce from Dynamic Support around $69.00 is Holding for now.

 

 

 

Gold also looks to Its own Dynamic Support at $927.98/928.00 in The Immediate-Term, as we have even more IntraDay Consolidation here.

Price needs to Clip the $919.00 Area in The Near-Term to really Negate the Consolidation for a solid Bearish View… and the “Ambiguity” and “Noise” of The Dollar right now is not assisting Matters in this Case.

 

 

 

 The Fiber still retains an Anchor with our Uptrending Hourly Channel, as Price is held by the 1.3870’s Resistance.

Depreciation will see a fall through 1.3850’s Near-Term Support, and onto our Daily Head and Shoulders Neckline Static Support at the 1.3800 Handle.

Bullish Sentiment will find Fuel if Price Clips the 1.3896 Dynamic Resistance, as well as the 1.3930’s Static Resistance for Trend Resumption in the Near-Term.

 

 

 

 

 

As always, I will have more Updates for you as we move on with our Volatile Day, and an interesting Note here…

We have a spmewhat rare “Quadruple Witching Week” !…  Equity Options, Index Options, Futures, and Futures Options all facing Expiry as the Second Quarter comes to a Close. Institutional Motives will look to Settle their Books and do plenty of Re-Positioning… so this is certainly something to be Mindful of as we move along!

Please join me for another Visit soon!

;-)

 

 

 


Posted on June 16, 2009 at 20:09 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »

 

Greetings, Everyone and Welcome to Wednesday!

Our “Traditional” Commodity Day here on The Blog… with EIA Crude Inventories… always gives us a nice chance to look outside of our Currency World and into a little InterMarket Analysis.

( Those of you who have been with me for a while know how essential  I think InterMarket Analysis and Concepts are…      ;-)

The Equities losing a bit of Steam on Tuesday is bleeding out” as of Writing-Time into Asia as we speak… and The Correlations with Gold and Crude are largely “In Line”, and following along.

Despite the “Buoyancy” we saw in Gold Tuesday… We see potential for further Weakness moving forward, as Gold still has not been able to maintain Its $990 Highs from a couple weeks back.

We are still largely Bullish in The Mid-Term and Price Action supports this View with the Macro-Uptrend… current Price Behavior looks toward the $900 Handle with Probability.

The $940.50’s Area is acting as larger Static Resistance in the Immediate-Term…and a Clean Clip of the $970’s Area is needed for overall Trend Resumption in my personal View.

Here is the Daily, so give it a Click for various Levels… and Post-Time is early evening for me at 1:00 GMT.

 

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil is seeing more “General” Strength than Gold is…as Gold is co tied yup in “Inflationary Sentiment Concerns”.

Crude has some Buoyancy from The Euro as well… as relatively decent Economic Data Points over the last month, in general, have provided increased Confidence in EuroZone Consumption… as well as in The U.S., where the Summer Driving Season is upon us fueled by Driving as a “cheaper” form of Transportation for Holidays in this Economic Climate.

Crude is in Consolidation on the IntraDay Perspective, but is clearly “Anchored” in Its Uptrend S.D. Channel out on the Daily Time-Cycle. While Crude is becoming Overbought with various Oscillators such as RSI… any Corrections seen will be most likely to bring in Bullish Builds as Price moves ever-closer to the “Coveted” $80 Level for OPEC.

 

 

 

 

 

We get back to Currencies with The Majors at 6:30/7:0 GMT for the “Currency Majors Technical Perspective” Report, so please join me then for some Immediate-Term Details on “The Four Siblings”!

As always… an Update to follow, so please come by for a visit as we prepare for the London/EuroZone Activity!

;-)

 

 

 


Posted on June 15, 2009 at 2:09 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »

Greetings again, Everyone!

Our earlier Thoughts on our last Post come to fruition as The Asian Bourses come off while The Dollar and Yen continue their Macro-Corrections… even though most Units are still considered to be in rather large Range-Bound Areas.

The GBP/JPY continues Its Correction, as the Hourly reveals Key Levels to Clip for Bullish Builds to enter back into the overall Trending Environment.

As The Yen gains Correctional Strength, Contact with the Ellipsed Area at the 158.40’s Dynamic Support, along with the Key Level of the Weekly 50% Fib Variant of the October Downleg, will be a Crucial Area for Bulls to be Mindful of for Attractive Rates.

Here is the Hourly Capture so give it a Click, and Post-Time is 7:10 GMT.

 

 

 

 

 

Please have a look at the just-published “Currency Majors Technical Perspective” Report  for some Immediate-Term Detail on The Majors, as we monitor how Deep these Corrections continue to progress.

As always, I will have plenty of Updates as we move along, so please join me throughout The Day!

:-)

 

 

 


Posted on June 14, 2009 at 20:51 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »

 

Greetings, Everyone and Welcome to Monday!

We embark on a new Week with some Mixed Dollar Activity as Trading begins in The Asian-Pacific Sectors.

Gold continues Its IntraDay Corrections, as Oil remains Mixed to slightly Bearish at this point.

The Dollar looks to follow the Lead of The Yen ( or Vice Versa if you are following the G8 Communique and Logic…) as we open the Week with slight Dollar and yen strength Across The Board.

Let’s gets right to it since I probably bored all of you to death with my Weekend “Pseudo-Political Policy” Thoughts on The Economy and The G20 Summit of the last couple of Posts!…     ;-)

We shall have a look at The GBP/JPY and The USD/JPY as we move into the New Week, and here are Various Time-Cycle Views of Both.

 Asian-Pacific Sector Equity Markets are largely Negative as of this Writing… so our “Inverse” Correlation here is generally Intact with The Stronger Yen and in turn… a Stronger Dollar.

Here are The Captures with Commentary above, so give them a Click, as always.

Post-Time is 1:50 GMT.

We see The Pound Yen in “Classic textbook” Corrective Form that Trend-Followers tend to prefer… so Bullish Builds coming in for better Rates is certainly highly-probable moving forward into The Session.

 The 159.80’s Area of Static Support just may be The Area The Bulls are looking for… although a Deeper Correction is always possible.

 

 

 

The Hourly gives the underlying Consolidative Sentiment that we have been seeing in The Unit, as Price looks to The Outliers of The Range to Anchor Price at 159.90’s to the 162.60’s.

 

 

 

 

The Dollar Yen is looking toward Clear Round-Number Support at the 98.00 Area… as Price looks to bounce around The Symmetrical Triangle Formation here on the IntraDay View.

Let’s step back a bit and check on the Monthly View… where we can clearly see some Parameters that have caused  ”Frustration” with The Unit the past several Weeks due to the continual “Push and Pull” Descriptors I like to use with The Unit…. resulting in Consolidation as The Battle has raged back and forth…

 

 

 

The Hourly View gives us more Clarity with how Volatile The “Battle” between these two has become.

The Wide Swings in Price and Sentiment really are a perfect “Indicator” for the Mixed and Uncertain Markets we are in overall. Vacillating between Risk Aversion to Risk Appetite will always have a direct Effect on this Unit, and Price is reflecting this Sentiment.

Support and Resistance is rather Clear within The Range… so Bullish and Bearish Sentiments need to Break their respective Ranges to be In Favor.

 

 

 

 

 

So here is where we stand at the Moment!

Please join me for the Currency Majors Technical Perspective” Report right around 6:30 GMT, as always, for more Detail as we progress through The Session.

Of course, plenty of Blog Updates to follow, so I hope to see all of You throughout the Day!

:-)

 

 


Posted on June 13, 2009 at 11:05 in Commentary by Tim SalemNo Comments »

 

Greetings, Everyone and Welcome To Saturday!

Writing-Time for me is about 9 A.M…. so it is 16:00 GMT.

 

 

With The G8 Summit this weekend in Italy… most Markets tend to weigh heavily on a lot of the Rhetoric that comes out of these “loaded” Meetings.

For many of us who tend to deal Primarily in The Currency Markets, these Meetings do not hold a lot of Weight… at least historically… as Currency have been largely “Ignored” in terms of any Commentary.

This time around… we do know that The Overall Sentiment of The U.S. Dollar is becoming ( and is…) increasingly Negative.

We do know that the massive Q.E. Program is moving at such a rapid pace here in the U.S., that Recovery in the “Very Long-Term” may come sooner for our entire economic situation… but a what Price?

The rest of our World Friends are not involved with “Cranking The Printing Presses” to such an Extent and to such a Deep Degree, which while a bit disadvantageous in The Near-Term… will surely be more “Healthy” in the Longer-Term.

Obama’s Band-Aid may be made of High-Carbon Refined Steel… but in the End… It will surely not be The Sharpest Knife in The Drawer!

Interest Rates are not a Factor here… They WILL Rise… and The REAL Question is simply When.

The Bond Yields are on Fire because Inflationary Concerns have to be controlled and are under Pressure to be controlled…. and the Key here is there is NOT a lot of Confidence in The current Administration that Inflation is being “Checked at The Door”, if you will.

The Sentiment…and Actions… of The Current Administration are heading right “Into The Wall” of Inflation under the “Justification” of letting the Economy stabilize and recover.

In my personal View… this is Ill-Advised and is already proving so when we simply look at the massively increasing Fiscal Deficit of 2009 that has already been accrued under the “guise” of Health and Recovery.

Buying your Way out of a Conflict does NOT resolve The Conflict Itself.

It simply presents YOU with ANOTHER Conflict!

 

 

 

Please join me tomorrow as we jump back into a little Analysis before The Sydney Open… and see if we get some Rhetoric out of The G8 coming across The Newswires!

Please join me then, and have a fine Day, Everyone! 

;-)

 

 

 

 

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