Greetings once again, Everyone!

As expected, The Bank of Canada held Rates at 0.25% in which the future Forecast to keep this Level through the middle of 2010 is a somewhat surprising consideration in terms of looking that “Far into The Future” for a Central Bank Entity.

We are quite accustomed in our present Climate to see Policy Views and Shifts simply going from Meeting to Meeting…although Canada’s emphasis on maintaining its 2% Target Inflation Rate is “In Line” with this type of rhetoric.

Our Thoughts on the concern of the Canadian Dollar strength were emphasized as expected,  as The Statement shed light on “The higher Canadian Dollar significantly moderating the pace of overall growth”.

Crude Oil certainly took advantage of this Momentum in its Correlation with The Loonie, while certainly having its own Appreciation lately due to positive Equities Correlations moving forward.

Let’s check in with both Units and observe the Price Appreciation, so give The Captures a Click for reference.

Post-Time is about 30 Minutes after The NYSE Open at 14:00 GMT… where The Dow is bidding up in positive territory a bit over 44 Points.

Here I have the new September Futures Crude Contract, which again, will vary slightly with the Continuous Contract on The NYMEX… where we see an IntraDay High so far of about $66.65 and a new “Transitive Rollover” Area right at the $66.00 Handle.

A deeper Correction… which is probable in my personal View…may simply take us back into the Consolidating Range of $64.20’s to the $66.00 Handle with the Conclusion of Bernanke’s Testimony here.

His emphasis will place Rhetoric on Macro-Economic Growth remaining in Contraction Mode which will give the Dollar and Yen a little boost of “Corrective Steam”, if you will.

The Strength of The Loonie here reaching the 1.0960’s but not being able to sustain the Level as Price moves back to the massive 1.1000 Handle… is precisely the Sentiment the BoC is after.

Corrections may also be due here with the Bernanke Testimony Rhetoric, as well as the Crude and even Gold Corrective Sentiment that looks to be on the way… although a Retracement of this “Wick” surely is possible through to the 1.0930’s Dynamic Support Areas as well.

As always on such an interesting Day, I will have more Updates for you as we move along!

The Curiosity of the potential Dollar and Yen Corrections against the backdrop of strong Equity Earnings will be a unique InterPlay to see concerning general Correlations between all of these Units!

Please join me soon!

Greetings Everyone, and Welcome to Tuesday!

We turn our attention to the Bank of Canada and the Overnight Call Rate Decision at 13:00 GMT.

While the BoC deals with much of the same Sentiment and Information as most other Global Central Banks, Quantitative Easing really is not in the picture as long as The Canadian Dollar Itself looks to Correction.

The recent Strength of The Loonie looks to its conventional “Inverse” Correlation with Crude Oil, although this may become worrisome for the BoC, as they may simply “Jawbone” The Loonie lower which will provide clear Impetus for The USD/CAD Unit to rally.

Even without any Impetus or Macro-Factors involved… Price worked the Daily Bear Flag here with extreme accuracy as we spent the last several Sessions retracing price for a potential “Re-Test” of the 1.0700 Lows.

The BoC may simply not let this take place, and may implement a “Verbal Intervention” before Price moves with additional Canadian Dollar Strength.

We can see a Correlation here with Price beginning to actually “Slow” and consolidate a bit… with the Canadian Dollar’s Appreciation of about 2.56% in the last Month, as opposed to only about 0.67% in the last Day as we reach some “Basing” at the 1.1000 Handle of Static Support.

Here is The Daily View, so give it a Click for various Levels of Reference.

Post-Time is 00:40 GMT.

The Hourly View gives us a Clear View of the Accumulation that led to Consolidation over the past several days…. with some Wedge/Symmetrical Triangle Formations.

The “Fractal” Nature of the Price Action is surely “leaning” to more Depreciation in The Unit in terms of Directionality… but The BoC could certainly step in here with a Surprise ( although their .25% Level now is about as low as they can go…), or Verbal Rhetoric.

Well…so far so good with my Internet Connections here in the Desert Heat… so please join me right around 6:30 GMT for the European “Currency Majors Technical Perspective” Report, as we look into some Immediate-Term Detail with The Four Majors!

I hope to see you all then!

Greetings Everyone, and welcome to Wednesday!

While we have seen IntraDay Momentum and Volatility leading to solid Reversals in Price Behavior… the Ranges we work with are still Clear, Defined, and Intact.

As we come out of a  Risk-Averse Climate, we will not “logically” expect to see Risk Appetite completely reverse the “Holdings of the Day”, as they say.

In Art, Painters will “see” Line, Plane, Composition, and Color… but we still know the “Nature” of the Color will change and transfigure as it begins to actually dry.

In my deeply personal and esoteric View here… our current Climate of Price Behavior within most Units is very similar to this Analogy.

As we talked about early on Tuesday at the NYSE Open, we have plenty of Activity and Momentum in The Markets to work with, but we lack any semblance of clear Directionality moving forward.

Welcome to the Summer.

Welcome to Uncertainty.

Welcome to some of the exact Reasons for Why We Do What We Do!

In all seriousness, Climates such as these are what Currency Traders live for…. a lack of “Real” Institutional Volume that we are already beginning to see in the Correlations and Participation of related Markets… and the Anticipation and Seasonality of Energy as an entire Sector as the world’s largest consumer of Energy, The U.S., looks to travel and move about in a very complex economic environment. 

Is it truly any “shock” why Crude Oil is the “Leading Indicator” of The Day in the last few weeks?

Work with it or not… it is part of the Equation of the Trading Work we all are doing, so it is advisable to be mindful of.

In any event, let’s check in with The Loonie, the Dollar Canadian Unit, as a “Proxy” for Crude Oil… and I emphasise PROXY.

We often hear of working with the USD/CAD as the same as “Trading Oil”.

This is ill-advised and simply incorrect.

While the Correlation between these two is always deeply high, we must accept the two Products on their own Merit… Period.

Crude Oil… whether as a Futures Contract or as the Continuous Contract on the NYMEX… is a Product with it’s own Characteristics, Criteria, and Tendencies.

The Canadian Dollar is the same… and should be given the same Respect.

The Canadian Economy does not solely rely on Crude Oil Outflows… so why should we consider it as such?

Here we have The Hourly View, so give the Capture a Click for various Levels.

Post-Time is 00:50 GMT.

We can immediately see the Strength of The Loonie Itself against The Dollar is “extreme” compared to Its overall Crude Oil Correlation, so we have an Outlier right there in terms of Similarities.

Price looks for a significant Bounce here from the Daily Dynamic Support Confluence with the 23.6% Weekly Downleg Fib Variant.’The Bear Flag in formation here holds “heavy weight” upon it, due to the Uni-Directionality of the Downtrend…. but a Clip of the 1.1440’s will give The Dollar a bit of Oxygen in the Immediate-Term.

The Unit is surely one to be Mindful of concerning a Corrective Move on the IntraDay basis, so we will check in after the 6:30 GMT “Currency Majors Technical Perspective” Report during my next Blog Update.

Allow me to express my sincerest Appreciation to all of you who follow the “Currency Majors Technical Perspective” Reports I assist with for our FXStreet Chief Analyst and my friend and Colleague, Valeria Bednarik.

We are proud to have achieved the  #1 Position for the “Top 10 Forex Reports”  concerning Readers and Page Views for the month of June!

This is because of all of You… Period.

 Valeria and I are simply pleased that our Writings and Views are beneficial, and we hope them to continue to be.

We are quite different in our approaches to The Markets, and at the same time, we hold many “Universal” Perspectives that all Traders hold, so we hope we are able to reach many different types of Trading “Styles” as we move along.

Thanks Again, Everyone, for your support… It is sincerely appreciated by both of us!

Greetings again, Everyone!

We see a subtle “Transition” of Sentiment as Europe rolls into The New York Shores with Risk-Aversion easing into Consolidation, as The Safe-Haven Inflows into our “Low-Yielding Friends”, The Dollar and The Yen see some reprieve.

The increasingly important Trade Balance Data Clips Consensus by a 9.8% Margin, as the surprising Data lifts Safe-Haven Inflows into The Dollar and The Yen, which is an “Inverse” Correlation that reflects the “Positive” Impact of a Weaker Dollar on the Macro-Level.

Similar to our “Inversion” Correlations with Gold and Crude Oil… The Positive Sentiment of a Weaker Dollar translates into a shrinking overall Deficit, so more “Goods and Services are seeing The Export Vessels as they wave “Goodbye!” to the American Ports!”

OK OK… A little “Over-The-Top” for an Analogy… but you see my point…It’s Friday after all, right?

This is translating into some clear “Basing” at many Static and Dynamic Support Areas across many Currency Units and Gold and Oil themselves.

In my personal View… ( and all of you know I have one… hee hee hee… )… the actual Risk-Averse Price Action we have seen was simply “Artificially” Motivated… there was nothing “inherently Healthy” with The Dollar and Yen strengthening due to their own underlying concerns.

While we still “hover” in accumulating and consolidating Behavior and are currently seeing Reversals of “The Short Squeezes” concerning Dollar and Yen… it did not take long to see many of these Behaviors see Intial Immediate-Term Retracements as Prices moved into Thursday.

It does look “familiar” though, doesn’t it!… as most of us simply Traded these Climates all last year as we rode The Dollar and Yen on our Surfboards towards The BBQ’s on every Beach in the World.

Now…since we are discussing Crude Oil Declines in Imports ( the other side of the Trade Balance equation), and Trade Balance itself.

Our Canadian Neighbors did not fair so well… as their Trade Balance falls significantly.

I would like to look at The Unit for Two Reasons… The First is we have not examined it in a week or so… but the Second and more important fits right in with our “Flag/Pennant Theme” of the past few Sessions.

First up is The Daily… and what do we immediately see?

A Beautiful and Massive Bear Flag!

As always, any Chart Pattern or Formation will retain more Validity on the Longer Time-Cycles than on tighter Time-Cycles ( our current Group of Hourly Flags on our last couple of Posts indicate this… as Price action there is much “looser” in Behavior…)

My Post from Wednesday  shows this very clearly…

Here is The Daily, so give it a Click for Levels that are still Valid, and Post-Time is 15:15 GMT.

Our Fibonacci Variant clock right in @ the 38.2% Variant where Static Resistance Confluence is The Key Area at this point…. a “Textbook” Example of Fibonacci at work with clustering Support and Resistance Levels.

On The Hourly, The visit to “Wick City” really sees the underlying Volatility in Price even thought we are in this Macro-Horizontal Range here. We are still “anchored” by The Fib Variant/Resistance Area, as Price looks to keep Risk-Aversion In Check… or simply sail through with Dollar Strength potentially bring Violation to our Daily Bear Flag.

So we move ahead on this rather “Muted” Day which is to be expected.

Price… just like Us… has had a long Week… so we may see some “Covering” later as Profits roll Off The Table for the Weekend, but in general… Price looks to need a nice Scotch, good Cigar, and a Good Book!

Greetings once again, Everyone!

The USD/CAD and Crude Oil work through a rather “active” Day… considering the somewhat-”Tepid” movements of most Majors across The Markets.

Crude rallies back on an IntraDay View as The Loonie Pair follows suit in “normal” Inverse Correlation.

Here are The Hourly Views, so give them a Click for Levels.

Commentary is above, as always and Post-Time is 14:40 GMT.

Price clears our Ascending Triangle Formation on The Loonie, despite the slight Dollar Correction earlier… and Crude Oil now looks to Clip the $71.00 Handle of Static Resistance.

Continuation sees the $71.30’s, which will also bode well for the Canadian Dollar in the Immediate-Term.

Bearish Sentiment will not be seen with any real Significance unless the $66.50’s are Clearly Breached to the Downside.

The Loonie comes off of what may see as a Head and Shoulders Formation that so far has “failed” on the 4-Hour View.

In any case, a Breach of the Uptrend Line here sees the “Would-Be Neckline” Support @ the 1.1450’s/20’s Area… irregardless if you “accept” The Pattern or not.

Continuation of the Dollar-Reversal to Weakness sees the “Basing” Areas of the 1.1300/1.1280’s in the Near-Term.

As always, please join me for more Updates as we move along!

I hope to See Everyone Soon!

Greetings once again, Everyone!

We check in with Crude Oil and The Loonie, as their “Inverse” Correlation is “Unwound” as we move ahead.

Here are The Captures for Levels of Reference, so give them a Click… Post-Time is 16:25 GMT.

Crude looks to Clip the $70.30’s Dynamic Resistance Area, as Price “anchors” along the Bullish Trendline as It works through an Ascending Triangle Formation.

A Clip brings the $72.00 Handle into View…while Rejection sees a Violation of The Triangle and a visit to the $66.50’s Support.

The Loonie follows a similar Ascending Triangle Formation… when an “expected’ Correlation would be Canadian Dollar Strength moving towards the 1.1400 Handle of Support by this point… relatively speaking.

Price may simply continue to remain “Unwound”, as The Lonnie Accumulates here from the 1.1520’s “Transitive Rollover” Area.

As always… please join me again in this somewhat “Tepid” Day… as we may see some Covering soon after Big Ben escapes “The Electric Chair” on The Hill… with those Genius Financial Luminaries that we call Congress.

We see solid Crude Strength… and at the same time… Solid Dollar Strength in the USD/CAD Unit.

Greetings, Everyone and Welcome to Thursday!

While we work with all of the Macro-Data, Inflationary Talk, Jawboning Rhetoric for or against The Dollar, Range-Bound Markets, Gold and Oil leading or lagging The Dollar and Equities… and last but not least… Your Dog barking at The Moon!… We always have Pure Technicals to guide us in our Trading Decisions.

Most of you know me by now and realize my enjoyment of Fundamental Data and Event-Risk Concepts… but at heart… I am truly a Technical Guy!… Really!

I try to keep things rather clear and straightforward in The Blog concerning Analysis, and will use a lot of “Sentiment” Concepts as well to reinforce Clarity.

With that being said, let’s take a look at The Aussie and The Loonie, as we throw in Gold and Oil for some Correlation Ideas as well.

These two Units have such a direct relationship to Gold and Crude Oil, as we all well know, that it is necessary to understand their Correlations will wind in and out of each other all the time from an IntraDay Perspective.

It is important to realize that each Unit here must be accepted on Its own Merits and Characteristics, and simply not “assumed” to always be in Complimentary Correlation all the time.

( In these Cases… “Complimentary” being Oil and CAD flowing “Inversely”… and Gold and AUD flowing “In Tandem”…)

Here are the Hourly Views of all Four Units, so please give The Captures a Click for Various Reference Levels.

Post-Time is 2:00 GMT.

As we can see across ALL of these Units… we have IntraDay Consolidation.

At this point from a “Trading Perspective”… we may simply use standard Support and Resistance Strategies to work within The Ranges as long as no Clear Breaks above or below The Outliers are Seen.

My Commentary is sort of “subversive” here… as my entire Point is to really emphasize how “Clear and Effective” Simplicity can be!

Technical Analysis can be as deeply Complex as you wish… and I can keep up with most… but is it really Necessary all the time to have Charts that are so busy… with such complex Commentary… that you do not even know where Price is?…

I thought these Four Units would be fine to Illustrate these general Points in how we “See” these Markets Day In and Day Out.

Sometimes… Simplicity truly is Better.

As always, please join the somewhat- ”Jekyll” Side of me around 6:30 GMT for some Immediate-Term Analysis of The Four Majors with The “Currency Majors Technical Perspective” Report… to be followed by a “Real” Blog Update for all of You!… as opposed to my little “Lesson” here…

I hope to see all of You then!

Greetings, Everyone and Welcome to “Central Bank” Thursday!

Obviously after the Massive Corrections seen… at least relative to IntraDay Views… We have reached “Re-Positioned Levels” ahead of the Bank of England and the European Central Bank Rate Decisions at 11:00 and 11:45 GMT,  where both Entities hold Consensus to Hold Rates at 0.5% and 1.0%, respectively.

We also have On The Docket more Employment-Sector Data, with Initial and Continuing Jobless Claims as well as the Bank of Canada looking for a little Daylight with their Interest Rate Decision… despite Expectations of a Hold there as well.

Let’s take a “Tour” and check in with the AUD/USD, USD/CAD, Crude Oil, and USD/JPY.

This will give us a rather Comprehensive View of where The Dollar stands on “Both Sides of the Fence”…. ( Of Course… We know It is surely having difficulty standing at all!… hee heee… )

Give the Captures a Click for various Levels of Reference, as Commentary precedes The Captures.

Post-Time is 1:30 GMT.

The Commodity Currencies are “Basing” in Ranges of 70-80 Pips or so… as The Aussie finds Dynamic Support and Resistance right on Its Weekly 50% Fib Variant and the .8000 Figure of Round-Number Static Resistance… as we spoke of yesterday in an Update.

Oil continues Its “Basing” as well between the $65.50-$66.00 Levels, as The Loonie continues Its Dollar Rebound with a Bounce from Dynamic “Transitive Rollover” Support at the 1.1050’s Handle.

Our Levels were met on both Units, with clear Support and Resistance Levels seeing Contact and anchoring Price.

The Dollar Yen continues It “Push and Pull Battle” with The Dollar with Inversion… as during Climates of Risk Aversion, we look to see Who is the Strongest “In-Flight  Safe Haven” Unit. In Risk Appetite Climates such as now, we look to determine Who is the Weakest to Counter with other Beta Units.

A Break of the 95.50’s Static Support sees a deeply potential return to the 95.00 Handle, as the 94.50’s to the High 93.80’s is certainly Probable with the Weight of Yen Correction against The Dollar.

Let’s observe how the Asian-Pacific Sectors handle the Activity, and please join me around 6:30/7:00 GMT for the “Currency Majors Technical Perspective” Report… to be followed by a Blog Update specifically concerning EUR/USD and GBP/USD as we prepare for the Interest rate Decisions.

I also invite you to please Join our FXstreet Advisor and my good friend,  Valeria Bednarik,  and Myself for the “BoE and ECB Interest Rates Decisions” Live Coverage beginning at 10:45 GMT !

Coverage will be on the FXstreet Home Page and Calendar, so have a look  for Registration!

Greetings once again, Everyone!

With Ben Bernanke testifying on The Hill… we look to Crude Oil and Its Fall during today’s Market action as Inventories continue to Build with 19-Year Highs… without OPEC providing Rhetoric either way.

Here are the Hourly Views of both Units, so give the Captures a Click, as always!

Post-Time is 15:45 GMT.

The continuing Crude Oil Builds “Halt” the Strength of The Canadian Dollar, as The Loonie finds some “Basing” Consolidation at the Dynamic Support @ the 1.0800 Handle… with a Clear Hourly Rounded-Bottom Formation.

Price looks in the Immediate-Term to see the 1.1050’s Dynamic Resistance of the Weekly Fibonacci Downtrend Variant from the 1.3063 High in March.

Crude still looks to Confirm a Near-Term “Top” in Place at the IntraDay $69.00 Area as Accumulation continues… although in the Mid-Term..the $75-$80 Area are certainly within View when Corrections complete.

We still hold our Elipsed levels as potential Areas of Correction as The Dollar rebounds a bit with Today’s Market Behavior.

Please join me, as always, as we move into the European Close and prepare for the U.S. Close in a few Hours!

The Corrective Levels need Monitoring as the IntraDay Behavior will follow our Corrections…but their Depth at this Point are no Match to overturn  the Macro-Trends at this particular Point.

Stay Vigilant, and please join me Soon!

Greetings Again, Sports Fans!

Well… our Treasury Secretary decides to work his classic Plays into the Market by weakening The Dollar with Brilliance, as his Commentary and continued “Big Government Intervention” Stance rolls right along.    

We will see if some “Backpedaling” comes into his Commentary after the Fact… as it did with the whole Reserve Currency fiasco about a month ago….

We will stick  with The Loonie and The Aussie as we have been working with them over the last few Posts… but any Major Unit will do here, as Reaction is Across The Board on Dollar-Related Units.

The Hourly Views are in Place… so give the Captures a Click for Commentary.

We may see Corrective Behavior soon… although with Current Macro-Momentum,  any Corrections seen may be rather “Shallow” in Depth and Scope.

Post-Time is 15:00 GMT.

( My Personal Thoughts  on the “Shallow” Corrections we spoke of see 1.1475 on the Loonie, and back to .7700 Static Support in the Aussie… both in the Immediate-Term… )

 We will check in soon, and gauge how the recent Strength in the Majors plays out on an IntraDay Basis, so please join me soon!

Also… if you feel The American Government is qualified in the Realm of “Fund Management” and bringing Fund Managers to the Party… then we need to have a serious talk!