Posted on July 13, 2009 at 9:02 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »

 

Greetings again, Everyone!

As we move along, our Thoughts on a Range-Bound but Volatile Day are proving correct… as usually happens with a lack of Fundamental Data Point Releases to “Anchor” Price and/or provided a “Catalyst” for Price to move with Significance out of IntraDay Range Areas.

The Swissy gives us a “portion” of our Flag Completion from last Week in terms of Clipping The Apex… although like The Euro earlier… Price does “overextend” Itself to literally Negate the entire Hourly Bear Flag.

As we mentioned, this will happen with Frequency on the IntraDay Views… but we can still obtain useful information concerning Directionality as price either Violates or Respects the Flag Itself.

Here is the Hourly View with Commentary, so give it a Click as always.

Post-Time is 14:00 GMT.

The thrust of Momentum out of The Flag could not sustain enough Appreciation to form a New “Transitive Rollover” Area at the 1.0900/15 Area with new Dynamic Support, so Price simply pulls back towards the Dynamic Area of the weekly 23.6% Fib Variant finding Dynamic Resistance as of this Writing.

Clear Fractal Behavior os obviously In-Play here, as Price grinds its way down, but Negates Contact with Daily Static Longer-Term Support at the 1.0800 Handle, especially as we work through the “Building of Energy” in the larger Symmetrical Triangle Formation… similar to what we are working with on The Euro.

Neutral to Bearish Sentiment remains unless Price can Clear with Conviction the 1.0889 Static Resistance Area… with even stronger Bullish Sentiment towards to the 1.0900 Handle in The Near-Term.

 

 

 

 

 

We will check in on The Unit as we move along, and I will have more of these shorter “Single-Currency Unit” Updates for you as we move along!

Similar to some changes I am making with the  6:30/7:00 GMT Currency Majors Technical Report at the Asian/Frankfurt Rollover…  I am hoping the subtle changes will prove beneficial for you!

;-)

 

 

 

 

 


Posted on July 9, 2009 at 20:46 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »

 

Greetings Everyone, and Welcome to Friday!

With a deeply Volatile and Event-Filled Week finding It’s Conclusion, I look to get back to The Majors after my “Continual Market-Traveling Ways” through The Crosses, Gold, and Oil!

As we have discussed, with the extreme Activity and Volatility seen… We will find Price Accumulating into Consolidation…. where we have been seeing IntraDay Flag/Pennant Formations across multiple Markets.

With all of the Macros aside, let’s stick with our Themes concerning these interesting Flag/Pennants Formations to see if we Respect or Breach as The Asian-Pacific Sector rolls on into London and Europe as we wind down the Week.

 

Here are The Hourly Views of The Fiber and The Swissy with Commentary, so give them a Click for Various Levels of Reference.

Post-Time is 1:45 GMT.

 

We hold the same general Principles as The Formations in our Last Post…

 

The Fiber is forming a Bull Flag, so our “Probabilities” lie with Price Appreciation out of The Flag Consolidation.

Price holds the Apex of The Formation here… so we simply look to Pivot from The “Transitive Rollover” Support here, and see “Full Flag Completion” at The 1.4200’s Area in The Mid-Term , of course.

More importantly, we are simply “looking” for The Pattern to continue on with Appreciation and “Respect” Price… Or… We are looking for “Violation” of Price as we Negate The Flag.

Respect sees The 1.4080’s in The Immediate-Term while “Violation” sees the 1.3940’s Static Support in the Immediate-Term.

 

 

 

The Swissy is forming a Bear Flag, so our “Probabilities” here lie with Price Depreciation.

“Respect” of the “Transitive Rollover” Formation sees The 1.0740’s Static Support in The Immediate-Term… while “Violation” sees Price clipping The Apex as we move towards the little Magenta “Resistance Areas that will come into existence.

 

 

 

So once again… let’s see how Price fairs in working withn these Structures, and be sure to stop by in a few hours for the 6:30/7:00 GMT “Currency Majors Technical Perspective” Report where we can also see these Two Units in much more Detail!

I hope to see you soon!

:-)

 

UPDATE @ 6:45 GMT !

We have the just-published  “Currency Majors Techncial Perspective” Report,  where The Immediate-Term Details see Price attempting to Negate the Flags. We may see further “extensions” of Price here, or Accumulation may continue to keep The Flags/Pennants largely Intact and still Valid for Follow-Through.

These are Active Charts Patterns and not Static, so they will vary as they continue to “Build” on an Hourly View.

 Of course, more Updates to follow today!… as we also have both Import Price Indexes,  The important Trade Balance Data, and The Michigan Sentiment Index out of The U.S.!

Please join me throughout The Day!

 

 

 


Posted on June 26, 2009 at 9:29 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »

 

Greetings again, Everyone!

We see U.S. Futures bidding lower and set for a lower Open in about 15 minutes, as the People’s Bank of China reiterates, yet again, a “Call” and Statement for concern on The U.S. Dollar Continuance as the World’s Reserve Currency.

This type of “Jawboning” Verbal Intervention is never good for The Buck… and China is notorious for manipulating and pegging their own Currency… both “directly” and “indirectly”… such as in this case.

The PBoC would favor more Currency Diversification overall… with a preference at this point towards The Euro and slightly away from The Dollar.

Also increasing Risk Appetite at this point is the PCE Numbers of increasing Spending due to The Stimulus, as well as a  ”Reversal” of The Swissy moving higher and literally eradicating the recent Interventions of The Swiss National Bank.

Here are The Fiber and The Swissy on the Hourly Views, so give The Captures a Click for various Levels.

( Post-Time is now about an hour after The NYSE Open at 14:30 GMT. )

The Fiber looks to Bounce from the 1.4050’s Dynamic Support “Transitive Rollover” Area, as Dollar Weakness continues on the Near-Term.  As we spoke of last evening… the 1.41 30’s is the next Area of resistance to be Seen on Price Appreciation.

 

 

 

 

 

The Swissy sees Strength and is “hovering” at the 1.0860’s Confluence Support with the 23.6% Weekly April Fib Variant. Continuation with the Adherence to the Downtrend Line should see a Clip below the 1.0820’s.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Please join me again for more Updates to come, as always!

See You Soon!

:-)

 

 

 


Posted on June 22, 2009 at 20:27 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »

 

 

Greetings, Everyone and Welcome to Tuesday!

 

We closed the U.S. Session with no real “remarkable” Data, Behavior, or Events to speak of ( hence no U.S. Close Post from me … ), and we are simply still working with Risk Aversion on the back of Strengthening Dollar and Yen Tendencies at this point.

The Negativity “bleeding out” from Wall Street is seeing Depreciation in the Yen Crosses, especially, as of this Writing. While the IntraDay Behavior may look “extreme”, we are still adhering to Support and Resistance Levels as most Units see Downtrend Channel Behavior in the Immediate-Term.

We check in with the GBP/JPY again, as well as bring in The USD/CHF to check on the “Dollar Strength” of this Risk-Averse Equation.

Here are the Hourly Views, so give them a Click for Various Levels  with Commentary above, and Post-Time is 1:30 GMT.

 

The Pound Yen sees Continuation of the Right-Shoulder Depreciation we spoke of in the 15:00 GMT Post yesterday, as the Daily Head and Shoulders Formation continues.

Price is resting on the 38.2% Fib Variant with Dynamic Support at the 155.80’s Area.  A Correction “north”should see the 157.30’s Resistance and if Rejected… Price sees a Bear Flag Hourly Formation from the 159.60’s Highs.

If Violated, the “loose” Hourly Triple-Bottom Formation may see Price climbing back to those said Highs in the Near-Term.

Flag Continuation sees the 155/154.80’s Clipped to the Downside as Bearish Sentiment continues.

 

 

 

 

 

The Swissy sees Bullish Sentiment on the Hourly View in a Clear Uptrend Channel, albeit somewhat “Mixed” with the Ranging Consolidation from the Hourly Double-Bottom Formation.

Fib Variant Confluence Areas are providing Dynamic Support and Resistance, while Bullish Sentiment will remain out of the 1.0760’s-1.0890’s Range if the 1.0920’s Resistance is Seen and Held in the Near-Term.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Please come by for a visit for the 6:30/7:00 GMT “Currency Majors Technical Perspective” Report, for some Immediate-Term Techs on the Four Majors. A Blog Update will follow, as usual, so I hope Everyone will come by as we move into The Day!

:-)

 

 

 


Posted on June 18, 2009 at 16:08 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »

 

Greetings again, Everyone!

We arrive at The NYSE Close with Equities and The indices in slightly Positive Territory.

Gold and Oil still remain “Key Market Drivers” here concerning The Dollar… as Inflationary Concerns ease back just a bit. Mixed Price Action is Seen across most markets overall, albeit the relatively “Noisy” and “Heavy” Volatility and Whipsaw Behavior today.

The Queen illustrates the larger wide Swings quite well from an IntraDay perspective… as does The Swissy… which shows perhaps the most “Solid” Dollar Strength around The Units.

Give these two Captures a Click for Levels and Commentary above, and Post-Time is 21:00 GMT.

 

Cable gives us the “Spotlight” Unit for Volatility and really shows no signs of Easement in The near-Term. The Swings of 200-Pip Margins back and forth surely provided Opportunity and perhaps Frustration for IntraDay Traders moving within the constant 1.6211-1.6400 Range.

Slightly Bullish Sentiment coming off of the recent Swing-High from Support has Impetus to move through 1.6400 Resistance on the slight Hourly Pullback we are seeing as of Writing-Time.

The Asian Bourses picking up on the relatively positive U.S. Session Activity may be the Short-Term “Catalyst” needed here to see Fruition.

 

 

 

 

The Swissy, on the “Other Side of the Fence”, is our “Spotlight” Unit for Dollar Strength… and NOT because The Dollar is inherently Strong of Its own Merit.

In my personal View… We always are dealing with various Levels of Strong-vs. Weak in The Currency Markets, and in this case… The Swissy Itself is Weak due to The SNB and B.I.S. Interventions we saw earlier in the Day.

We see Price forming a New “Transitive Rollover” Area at the 1.0850’s as relatively Bullish Sentiment is still In Favor at the moment. Any Corrective Behavior sees a “Pause” at the 50% Fib Variant of the June 11th Daily Upleg… on the way to Static 1.0760 Support.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Please join me in a few Hours for our “Big Post” for Friday… as we observe hoe The Asian-Pacific Sectors pick up on the U.S. Activity today!

Please join me Soon!

:-)

 

 

 


Posted on June 11, 2009 at 19:53 in Commentary, Live Webinars by Tim SalemNo Comments »

 

Greetings once again, Everyone and Welcome to Friday!

I have the “Big Daily Blog” Entry a bit early today so I can give more Content as we head into the Final Day of Trading for the Week!

 

At the NYSE Close… The Dow and S&P 500 clear the Day in Positive Territory, with The CRB Commodities Index reaching 7-Month Highs.

Gold and Crude continued on after Shallow Pullback in the Week, as Continuous Crude on The NYMEX closes at $72.68 at also a 7-Month High and a 3-day Continuous Rally.

EIA is now calling for Higher Demand, which will keep The Black Gold Well-Bid in the Near-Term.

The Higher Oil Price… and Expectation of It Continuing… sees a subtle “Check” of Inflation as well as the Continuance of Dollar Sentiments being “Out Of Favor”…bodes well as another Element in the Macro-Recovery Situation overall.

The Low-Yield/Safe Haven Aspect of The Dollar and Yen that we have seen all Year are slowly giving way towards a bit of Risk-Taking with more Capital Inflows into more “Riskier” Asset Classes such as Commodities.

The Treasury Auctions still weigh heavily as a Larger Concern in my Personal View… as The Fed needs to continue this Practice to be “On Target” for their overall Planned Purchases.

The ever-increasing Yields in Bonds casting a “Shadow” on these Treasury Purchases, the Pressure for The Fed is even more tanamount here for their increasing Treasury Purchases moving forward.

This Primary Component is Deeply Dollar Negative… and is already sensed by he markets on a Macro-View.

We are seeing this already by the simple Fact that Technically… all of our Dollar and yen Strength has been “Event-and Data-Driven”… so it is “Plastic and False”.

It is NOT due to the inherent positive Factors within The Dollar Itself.

We can use The Swissy and The Kiwi to illustrate various “Degrees” of Strength… similar to what we did on our last Blog Update with the Euro and The Aussie…

Here are The Daily and Hourly Views for various Levels of Reference and Commentary above, with Post-Time being 00:50 GMT.

 

 

The Swissy Daily still holds Downside-Risk Pressure, as the 1.0755 Daily Dynamic Support is Clipped as Price looks to turn the New “Transitive Rollover” into Resistance moving into the 1.0680’s Static Support Area.

 

 

 

 

 

The Hourly View give more Insight and Clarity as Price remains “Anchored” by The Downtrend Channel, and moves in Symmetrical Fractal Formations. An Immediate-Term Bounce may be seen towards the 1.0750’s, and a Rejection here is probable in consideration of The Channel Behavior.

 

 

 

 

 

The NZD/USD Daily continues North with Adherence to the Longer-Term Daily Uptrend Channel from April, as Price sees the Daily Static Resistance at the .6000 Figure In Sight.

 

 

 

 

 

The Hourly View sees a potential Immediate-Term Correction to the .6350’s Area of “Transitive Rollover” Support.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Please feel Welcome, as always, to join me for The Currency Majors Technical Perspectives” Report right around 6:30/7:00 GMT, and another Blog Update to follow!

I hope to See all of You then!

;-)

 

 

 

 


Posted on June 9, 2009 at 19:55 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »

 

Greetings, Everyone and Welcome to Wednesday!

We have certainly seen a highly ambitious Week so far… and despite numerous Examples of Appreciation around The Currency Units… we also see some Solid potential Levels of Correction that must be considered as well!

As we always observe… Nothing is Uni-Directional forever, and as we discussed in our prior Blog Update, these Levels are significant for those Traders who work with Counter-Trend, Fading, and Range-Bound Views.

The Larger- Macros on the way are U.K. Production and Trade Issues, as well as EIA Oil Inventories and Trade Balance out of the U.S… among other Data Point Releases, of course.

This time around, Let’s have a look at the USD/CHF, Gold, and Crude Oil.

Here are The Captures with Commentary above, so give them a Click for Various Levels of Reference.

Post-Time is 01:00 GMT.

 

The Hourly Swissy sees Deep Depreciation, as our “Dollar-Out-Of-Favor” Thoughts from our last Blog Update are very clearly illustrated in this Unit. We see a Tight Range now as price looks to Consolidation, as such a “Tight” IntraDay Area will see Energy builds Break soon.

A Rise back above Major Static Support at the 1.0870’s Area is needed to return a Neutral View… although it must be Held and continue to see Appreciation towards at least an Hourly Double-Top at the 1.0980’s L:evel. Bullish Sentiment returns with a Breach and Hold of the Area.

 

 

 

 

 

The Daily View of Gold is also Clipped with Macro-Bearish Sentiment… despite the slow but consistent Appreciation moving up the Lower-Channel Dynamic Support Trendline seen on Tuesday. Price may see more Downside Correction in the Near-Term, as a Fall back to the $940.50’s Static “Transitive Rollover” Area is very Near in Scope.

A Violation of the $970’s Area will assist in further Appreciation, but Gold really needs to see the $990’s Resistance Area with Confidence to reach the recent $1007 Highs that We saw back in February.

 

 

 

 

 

The Appreciation in Crude Oil, while Significant, still sees a slightly Slower Level of Momentum moving forward. While a Correction back to the $66.00 Areas is certainly possible… Bullish Builds may still enter in at this Area… as The Bulls look for the Coveted 38.2% Weekly Fibonacci Variant of the massive $147 Downleg of this entire Macro-Crisis.

The Weekly follows The Hourly in this Case.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

From The IntraDay View, It is certainly advisable to Be Mindful of these various Areas… especially if Consolidation continues or begins as we Work through The Asian-Pacific Sectors.

 

 

 

 

Please join me around 6:30/7:00 GMT for the “Currency Majors Technical Perspective” Report as we move into The European Session, and of course… plenty of Updates to be seen as we move through our Day and Data Points as well!

I Hope to See All of You Soon!

:-)

 

 

 


Posted on May 26, 2009 at 8:23 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »

 

Greetings Once Again, Everyone!

Corrective nature we spoke of about 6 hours ago has come to Fruition with the Dollar and Yen Strengthening on a slightly IntraDay Basis. This is evident in most Majors as well as the Crosses, and the “Catalyst” of more Issues out of North Korea keep the Asian Sectors largely “Flat” to “Negative”… hence we are seeing U.S. Equity Futures Bidding Down a bit as well.

More Housing Issues are also In Play… with my own Fair City of Phoenix topping the List with a 36% Drop in Depreciative Value on the Case-Schiller Index.

The S& P looks now to the 880 Static Support, as Gold and Crude Oil come off of their Bullish Sentiment of the last week as well.

In my personal View… “Full-Blown Risk Aversion” is not really back… and we are seeing Sentiment here for more Attractive Effective Costs for Bullish Builds… as we have seen so far in The Fiber and Cable.

The Swissy is in an interesting Area… as the SNB still looks for active Intervention in keeping The Currency weak and “Pegged” around the 1.0800 Handle with The Unit. We Clipped the Descending Triangle we put on The Daily a couple weeks back, and Accumulation may now be “In The Works” as the 1.1150’s holds a new “Transitive Rollover” Area.

Here is the Daily of the Swissy… as well as The Hourly Views of The Euro and Gold to get a little “Snapshot” of the various Corrections and Pullbacks.

Give the Captures a Click, as always… and Post-Time is 13:20 GMT.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Let’s check in a bit later as the Institutional Block Orders are absorbed in the Equities, and we watch for the Coveted 880 Figure on the S&P 500.

Gold is still a Major Factor to watch, since Its “Inverse” Correlation with The Dollar is largely back Intact… this may give us a little “Window” on The Dollar Behavior moving forward.

:-)

 

 

 


Posted on May 21, 2009 at 13:38 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »

 

Greetings once again, Everyone!

As The Queen reaches new 6-Month Highs, along with Major Appreciation of most Units and especially Gold… the Accumulation and Consolidation Areas we have seen over the last couple of Sessions have surely been Clipped as Key Resistance and Support Levels sacrifice themselves to the Market Gods!

;-)

 

Jobless Claims, Philly Fed Index, Leading Indicators, and even Geithner’s continuing Testimony have been largely “ignored”, as Price Action and Technicals have simply taken things into their Own Hands.

Let’s check in on the Gold Correlation “Side of Things” with the Hourly Views of Gold and The Swissy… where Key “New” Resistance Levels are coming into View.

Give the Captures a Click, and Post-Time is 18:30 GMT… about an Hour-and-a-Half ahead of the NYSE Close.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Please stay tuned, as we now check in for “Covering” on these Positions as we get closer to the U.S. Close… the Big Boys will need to begin taking Profits off of the Table so they can gas up their Yachts and Watercraft for the Memorial Day Weekend!… hee hee hee…     :-)

 

 


Posted on May 18, 2009 at 10:28 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »

 

Greetings once again, Everyone!

Of course… as Murphy’s Law always states… The Minute you say or do something… it will Change!

Hee hee hee … :-)

After our last Post Update on the Quiet Consolidation… Momentum came to the Party, and propelled most Majors into Corrective Breaks on the IntraDay Level.

As awlays, the Key now is if the Behavior can be sustained and move onto Key Levels of Support or Resistance… or if Rejection is imminent, and we simply see these Moves defined as Bear-Market Rallies.

Let’s take a look at the Aussie Dollar and the Swissy for a new Perspective… as well as a Brief Look at The Fiber and The Queen from our last Update.

Here are the Hourly Views of all four Units, so give them a Click for Commentary.

Post-Time is 15:30 GMT.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Aussie looks to continue with Its Bull Flag Momentum moving forward… in consideration of the Clipping the Flag “North”, and moving towards the Key Daily Static Resistance Area of the .7000 Figure.

 

 

 

 

 

We will resume later for an Update as we head closer to the NYSE Close… as the subtle Risk Appetite in favor IntraDay may continue on throughout the Session!

:-)

 

 

 

 

Older posts »