Greetings again, Everyone!

The positive importance of The U.K. Retails Sales Data is showing “slight” sign of Stabilization as Actuals of a 1.3% rise clipped the 0.3% Consensus with ease. While this translated into a nice Break of The Queen and Her Major Cross into Appreciation… we would really need to see stronger and stronger Purchasing “Evidence” coming out of the U.K. Consumer over a several-month period to really see Retail Sales as a Bellwether of positive Sentiment and Growth.

Let’s check in briefly with The GBP/USD and The GBP/JPY, and here are our same Hourly Views.

Give The Captures a Click, and Post-Time is 10:45 GMT.

 The Magenta Dynamic Support Line did, in fact, Hold for us and become a “new” Transitive Rollover Area of Static Support. Price now clips the 1.6510 Resistance Area, and if we do not see an Impulsive Correction back to the 1.6440’s Levels, then the 1.6600 Handle is on the way via 1.6555 Dynamic Resistance.

A Correction at 1.6600 then has a rather High-Probability of occurring, as Static Resistance at this Level is solid.

The Pound Yen show similar Price Action that is even more “extended” on the IntraDay View as we see a “potential” Double-Top Behavior if Price can fall on the Yen Strength, and bring the Corrective Sentiment further along. Solid Confluence is seen here with the Transitive Rollover Support Area and the Weekly 38.2% Fib Variant that we have held for months now.

The Daily Lower Channel Line may hinder this, and act as Dynamic Support… in the same fashion it acted as Dynamic Resistance over the last two Days of Hourly Candles.

While both of these Units are Overbought on the Hourly Views… taking a “Clue” from the U.S. Jobless Claims and Existing Home Sales Data will be relevant as we see to what “Degree” The Dollar is affected in a couple of hours!

Be sure and check back in for more Updates to follow, so I hope to see All of you soon!

Greetings again, Everyone at The NYSE Close!

Well… I think for the first time in the history of The Blog… I really do not have a lot to say!

OK OK… All of you can stop cheering now!… hee hee hee…   

Seriously… the continual Summer “Directionless” Sentiment out on the Larger Time-Cycles are certainly a sign of the Lower Summer Volumes… despite the increased Volatility and “Angular Noisy” Market Behavior.

Of course from The Hill with Bernanke, all The “Fed-Speak” was certainly out on the table for all of us to hear… as Economic Indicators and Data Point Releases get “Lost in Translation” for the Layman listener or viewer on T.V.

Housing and Consumer Sentiment are the “Name of The Game” here, as always, in any type of Economic stabilization and Recovery… so on it goes!

As we move into The Asian-Pacific Sectors, let’s take a look at The USD/JPY Unit as The Nikkei, The Aussie Markets, The Kospi, Hang Seng, etc… get moving along with their Morning.

The Unit could be the Classic Symbol of a Directionless Market!

Post-Time is 23:00 GMT.

On the Daily View, we are locked in a tight Range of about 91.70’s Static Support to the Transitive Rollover Area of Resistance at the 94.80’s. Our Long-Term Downtrend Channel from April is still very valid in “Anchoring” Price and current Momentum is leaning to more Depreciation of the Unit with Yen Strength.

The Hourly provides a little more Clarity as a Horizontal Range is in place. Price looks to Breach the Downside Dynamic Support Line first with a move towards the 93.20’s Support Area in the Immediate-Term… as Risk Aversion gradually comes back to The Markets.

We will see how Price progresses, so please join me for the “Big Blog” Post for Thursday in a few hours!

Greetings, Everyone and Welcome to Monday!

We begin the Week, as we mentioned yesterday, with that continual “Push and Pull” on an IntraDay basis of Risk Aversion and Risk Appetite that we have been working through for months now.

Crude and Gold are up and slightly overextended on The Hourly Views, and the Dow and S& P are up a bit as of Writing-Time as well.

Let’s have a look at a couple of Yen Crosses that are leaning towards the “Risk Appetite” side for now on the Hourly Views, although Price is retracing…as is Gold and Crude as well.

Here are the Captures, so give them a Click as always.

Post-Time is 15:20 GMT.

The Pound Yen looks to build a new Upleg, and actually most of The Yen Crosses do as well. We consolidate at the Confluence Area of 38.2%  of the Weekly Downleg as Price is still adhering to and working that massive Weekly Bear Flag Formation…. as the larger Daily Channel Lower Trendline is providing Dynamic Support moving forward.

Aussie Yen is very similar in Price Action and Sentiment… as it looks towards the 77.00 Handle for a bit of Accumulation that will lead to Consolidation.

A slight Bounce will return Price to the 75.00 Handle where if we consider the recent Upleg… we may see some Bullish Builds coming into Play as Price moves along.

The excessive heat here has been giving me some connection issues, but hopefully all is fine now!… and as long as this remains so, I will have more Updates on the way for all of you!

Greetings, Everyone and Happy Sunday!

Writing-Time is 8:30 a.m. for me, so it is 15:30 GMT.

We are back at it again with another rather volatile and “noisy” week behind us… as our Good Friends, Risk Aversion and Risk Appetite, move The Dollar and Yen around with Activity.

We can always have some “Probabilities” in terms of Market Direction, a change in Sentiment, or even Reversals when we see “Classic” Textbook Chart Formations and Patterns coming into View.

We are seeing Hourly Double Tops and Bottoms, clear Consolidating Ranges, and “Transitive Rollovers” of Support and Resistance in many Units, so we have plenty of “Anchored Structure” to open in Sydney later today.

Perhaps we all are tiring of this, and could simply use some larger Macro-Direction moving forward… as we are still in those large Ranges we spoke of a couple Weeks ago out on the Monthly Views.

Again…it is Summer so we have different types of Order Flows and Sentiment moving in the Markets during the “traditional” Summer Periods.

Here is The EUR/JPY on a Daily and Hourly View, where we see Confluence in Price Action and Sentiment.

We lean towards Dollar and Yen Strength with Risk Aversion in the Immediate-Term, as we see a “loose” Head-and-Shoulders Formation on the Daily… that is “translating” to a Double-Top that is holding on The Hourly.

Here are both Views, so give them a Click, and we will surely check in with them after The Open later today.

A Symmetrical “Run” here sets up the Formation nicely, as the 133.40’s is a significant Area that will be negated and not complete the Transitive Rollover moving back to Static Support at the 131.30’s… or we will Breach Price and see the 134.50’s/135.00 Handle in The Near-Term.

Please stop back by after The Sydney Open as we get moving with our New Week, and I look forward to seeing everyone then!

Greetings once again, Everyone!

We move to The NYSE Open, where Positive Sentiment begins the Day with The Dow and S&P both in Positive Territory. Equities and Indices have been largely Well-Bid throughout the Global Exchanges overnight and into today’s Session Openings.

Gold and Crude Oil are also a Major Component here as The Dollar and Yen retreat into the Shadows concerning most Units “Across The Board”.

Despite lackluster Earnings overall during “Earnings Season”, Goldman Sachs keeps the optimism alive, as well as Alcoa from last week, to give the Equities and Indices some Impetus to see Corrective Behavior that has and will “Carry Over” into The Currency Markets.

The Producer Price Index and Retail Sales come in “Better-Than-Expected” overall, but the “Weight” of Core Retail Sales will always be the “Factor” here, and without Autos and Energy, we really have nothing to “Hang our Hat On” here… hence the “Noisy Whipsaw” Price Action we have seen within the last Hour across The Markets.

(Please feel free to look at my latest Installments for the “Fundamental Forex Foundations” Section of the FXstreet Education Area… PPI, Retail Sales, Business Inventories, and CPI set for Release tomorrow.)

We check in with USD/JPY since these two will often run in Correlation in both Risk Averse and Risk Appetite Climates, except when they are battling with each other!

The Dollar Yen is always a unique Unit, since we can really observe the “Push and Pull” of Price Action since both Units have such similar Characteristics and Qualities. 

Here are The Daily and Hourly Views, so give them a Click for various Levels, and Post-Time is 13:50 GMT.

The Daily keep Price “anchored” with its Long-Term Downtrend Channel, and sees the Lower Channel Line providing clear Dynamic Support moving forward. The Key Area in my personal View, will be if Price can reach the Weekly Fib Variant Confluence of the 94.25/31 Area of Dynamic Resistance, and Beach through to the 97.00 Handle in the Mid-Term.

The Hourly shows our Daily Mid-Term 97.00 Thoughts to be rather “Distant”, as Probabilities rest with Price looking for a “Re-Test” of the 91.75 Channel and Support Lows in this case. If the Area is reached, Price may simply work in this “Tight range” of 91.75 to the 93.50’s Static Resistance Area.

As always, more IntraDay Updates for you as we move along, as we need to check in with The Queen and other Units as we move along.

Please join me soon, and I look forward to it!

Greetings again, Everyone!

We look to an IntraDay “Reversal” Day of Sentiment, as all of “The Basing” around the Units gives strong Momentum and Appreciation with slight Risk Appetite for the Day.

Crude Oil still languishes a bit, although Price did manage to pull out of the $58.00/50’s Consolidation Area… although we are under the $60.00 Handle again. 

Gold pulls a Break out of the Accumulation Range between $907.80’s Static Support and $914.00 Dynamic Resistance, with an $8.00 Appreciation as of Post-Time.

The Pound Yen pulls a clear “V” Reversal on The Hourly, as the entire 150.60’s Downleg is literally negated, as Price works through Dynamic Support Confluence at the 150.00 Handle with the July ‘08 50% Weekly Fib Variant.

Here is The Hourly View, so give it a Click for Levels, as we retain our Bear Flag Example for Reference.

Post-Time is 18:45 GMT.

We can say that our Hourly Bear Flag is still Valid and Intact, as Price breaks The Apex to the Downside… and simply Consolidates without reaching the Highs of The Apex at the 151.30’s Dynamic Resistance Levels.

This keeps Bias clearly to The Downside, with Bearish Views simply looking to sell into this Rally from the IntraDay View.

Stronger Bearish Views will look to maintain Patience here as we work through The Consolidation, and any Break of the 146.70’s will entice Selling Sentiment.

The Dow Correlation with the weaker Yen and Dollar is currently In Place, as The Dow is well-bid about 148 Points in Positive Territory.

Watch the Macro-Correlation moving into The Close, and I will be back with you then for another Update, as always!

Please join me then!

Greetings once again, Everyone and Welcome To Wednesday!

Let’s continue our numerous references and discussions to our Two “Risk-Aversion Partners-In-Crime”, The Yen and The Dollar.

Similar to my enjoyment and use of Market Correlations… we always must be aware of the “Caveat Emptor” that drives these Two as well: The Correlation Activity moves In and Out of Each Other with Consistency.

In the same fashion that we are mindful of, say, The Dow and S&P Correlations to The Yen Crosses… we are always Mindful of the fact that ALL  of these Units must first “Stand Alone” with their own characteristics… as their Correlating Activity ebbs and flows.

Let’s check in with The Yen as a Whole… and first up is my Friend and Colleague here on FXstreet, Valeria’s Favorite Unit, The Dollar Yen!

( P.S. - Do not tell Her this…  She will leave Buenos Aires and track me down in Phoenix… Body Parts will be strewn all over The Desert Southwest… as I am consumed by the 4000-Degree Heat! … hee hee…     ;-)

With all of my sarcasm aside, The Yen is surely ruling the Day over The Dollar in today’s Work in terms of coming off of our Asian-Pacific Sector Thoughts on The Asian Bourses picking up yesterday’s Bearish Sentiments.

For a bit of Perspective, let’s check in on The Monthly View of USD/JPY, where seeing The High- 80’s Area of last December and January is certainly plausible… ( although this is unlikely without a significant prior correction being a Monthly View).

Give The Captures a Click for Various Levels of Reference and Commentary, with Post-Time being 6:45 GMT.

The Daily gives us more Clarity to work with, as Price remains in a Wide Downtrend Channel here with Dynamic Trendlines on both sides. Price continues to Breach significant Daily Static Support Levels,  and the Static 93.50 Support Area is certainly In View.

The Hourly shows the Breach of the 78.6% Fib Variant of the Full January 1995 79.76 Low to the 147.76 Highs as a Confluence Area.

Surely a very Long-Term Fib View here… although it does remain Valid in Illustrating the Deep Yen Strength we have seen since April of this Year.

My 6:30GMT  “Currency Majors Technical Perspective” Report  shows this exact Immediate-Term Bearish Sentiment with our “Four Major Siblings” as well that we are all very familiar with lately!

Of course, we will see what “Interesting Rhetoric” emerges from The G-8 today as we move through our Updates today… with the possibility of seeing some Accumulation leading to Consolidation at least in The Immediate-Term across The Markets.

If The Yen is any Bellwether of Indication though… The Idea looks to be off in the Distance a ways, doesn’t it!

Greetings again, Everyone!

While we are at The NYSE Open with The Dow and S&P opening a bit “Flat” inching up at a Fractional pace… we can still look to The Indices for our Correlations over these last few days of Risk-Averse Behavior.

We may even see some of what I call “Typical Tuesday Corrections” that we have seen over the past several months…where we have significant Depreciation across many Currency Units and Commodities… ( although as we have discussed, The Major Comms are still under a great deal of Heat…)

Testing various Levels across most Markets are still “The Plays of the Day”, and our two Major Yen Crosses are no different.

( Just as an Indication of this thought… we are already down after 30 minutes of The Open… )

So we check in with EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY on The Hourly Views, as it will be interesting to see where we end up later in the Day concerning our Macro-Correlations.

Here are The Captures for a Click with Commentary above, and Post-Time is 14:00 GMT.

While very Short-Term Corrective Appreciation may be seen across most Yen Crosses, we are still in Risk-Aversion Mode, so be sure to watch those Counter-Positions that you may favor. The Yen has been a bit more “Elusive” than The Dollar in this Area.

The EUR/JPY gives us an IntraDay Wedge Pattern to work with here, capped by out Longer-Term Channel Line. The Key in my personal View, will be to see if Price can Breach the Lower Trendline and move South through the 132.40’s. If this is the Case, than it open up the Mid-131’s in The near-Term as we monitor The Indices for Correlation.

The GBP/JPY also presents a little Continuation Wedge-Like Behavior here, where the 154.40’s “Transitive Rollover” will be The “Make or Break” Scenario IntraDay for the next few hours. 

The Weekly 38.2% Fibonaci Confluence with Static Resistance will be a Key Area to Breach out of the current Depreciation., although Price is already Negating our Lower “Wedge” Trendline as the 153.00 Handle becomes attractive in The Immediate-Term.

As always, more Updates to follow as we move around in our still large Macro-Ranges for all of you Longer-Time Cycle Viewers ( like myself ), and as always, check in with the IntraDay Views for our Shorter-Term Friends!

It is once again going to be an interesting Day, so please join me soon!

Greetings once again, Everyone!

As Gold and Crude get slammed, the U.S. Futures bidding lower, and Dollar and Yen Strength continuing… we really have no major changes since our last Update at 6:30 GMT.

The “classic” Volume and Sentiment Issues of Summer are upon us, and our back-and-forth Rotation of some Risk Appetite/Risk Aversion continues on…  certainly a somewhat “typical” Monday of the last few months, relatively speaking.

Let’s check in on The Fiber, where we are currently seeing a nice Hourly Bounce from Static Support at the 1.3880’s. Price would need to clear our Magenta Dynamic Area there that we put in a week ago… and even beyond this, The Euro still needs to get into the 1.400’s for a real “Signs of Life”, as it were.

The Fractal Price Action is quite clear here… with what I like to call multiple “Baby Flags” all over.

Here is the Hourly View so give it a Click for various Levels, and Post-Time is right at the U.S. Open at 13:30 GMT.

As always, I will be back with you for more Updates as we move along, and watch for Crude Oil and Gold to be a “slight Bellwether” of Activity as we move throughout our day!

Greetings again, Everyone!

Our thought on The Fiber earlier certainly took shape, as Risk Aversion and Dollar and Yen Strength continue on to begin our Week.

While The Majors find Depreciation, The Pacific Dollars are at least locked in a bit more “Definable” Consolidation.

Here is the Hourly View of The Aussie and The Kiwi, so give them a Click as always for various Levels of Reference.

Post-Time is 6:30 GMT.

The Aussie finds Dynamic Support at the .7900 Handle, and a significant Breach through to at least the .8000 Handle is needed for any Solid Bullish Sentiment moving forward.

( We hold the same “General Areas” of Support and Resistance Transitive Rollovers on both Units here… )

In a similar Fashion, The Kiwi also needs a “Lift” through to the .6370’s in the Immediate-Term, or we may simply remain Range-bound moving forward.

We have the “Indirect” Aspect we talk of so often, with The Aussie and The Kiwi not feeling as much “Pain”, per se, of The Majors themselves.

For an Immediate-Look at the “Angular” Price Action of The Majors, The “Currency Majors Technical Perspective” Report was just published…. and as always more Update to come as we begin our Week!