Predominant days of this month we saw USD gaining moves.The drop was seen with less pull backs and more drop condition.The summer holiday time is getting over, and market is expected to get back the normal traders volume in the days to come.

Let us review friday week end moves: EURO and GBP rised lesser than the previous day highs and formed new lows for the day and around the lows of this week.It appears that the traders taken long positions at lower levels were not given profit booking opportunities and instead stoppedout during US session pip by pip drop.Those of you happen to watch the live market quote page or the platform deal station quote page might have noticed that the orders were seen alternatively - lower level sell order followed by higher level buy order very frequently.Then towards close of the session EURO and GBP closed slightly imporved levels near low.

The dump and pump move condition was seen during final week of this month.When big volume positions are to be taken to control the market - the big traders buy in a spread of 200-500 pips .They sell 5000 lots at lower level and buy 10000 lots .This way their buy level of the holding positions become lower than that of the market.Then to off load their buy positions with profit the market is rised and rised with the swings - during that time they buy 5000 lots and sell 10000 lots to move the market up.

Markets are known to face bullish and bearish phases alternatively.Now we know during last month when the entire talk in the market was about bullishness of EURO and GBP and further higher levels were derived following channel pattens.Then we know that was actually sell time after seeing present condition of the market.Now one month correction in EURO and GBP created bearish feel - but we need to judge whether it is sell time or buy time.unless we see the next month move we cannot accept that EURO and GBP can rise again.Hence we need the forecast.My estimate, based on the algorithm is a rise in EURO and GBP during Sept, either way moves during Oct and unexpected rise in November and then profit booking drop during Dec 2008.

These are just forecast and the chances of it happening may vary.Let us review the market during the rest 4 months of the year and then assess whether the forecast algorithm is dependable or not.

I will now give the expected market moves for Monday.

EURO and GBP are expected to open nominally up and firm up during Japanese session and then make small swings during early European session to confuse traders and then firm up nicely from mid European session and make a quick drop and then continue the firming up move during US session inspite of being holiday in US.This time USD/YEN is expected to alternatively rise along with EURO and GBP and there again near low are buy opportunities.

Please use the forecast as an additional input in your market analysis and then take trading decision.

Have a nice week end.

Regards

Dr.Sivaraman

There are potential tight stops below supports and psychological levels and the big players are carefully hitting rhe stops and keep buy orders above their sell orders to buy all the stops triggered.Traders taking long with tight stop also they are discouraging and hitting stops.Targeting YEN crosses they are making continued contrarian moves of dipping EURO and GBP and also USD/YEN.Today being month end they are putting pressure on the traders.Now new week and new month they may not show these levels as they are buy levels by several estimates.

They are expected to firm up towards close as they did for last 2 days.

Regards

Dr.Sivaraman

Contrariam move of GBP/USD dop and USD/YEN dip is seen to drop GBP/YEN more near new low.The big playes are buying all the stops below 200 and it may appear the drop is endless.But they are expected to make contrarian move during rise -ie rising GBP/USD and USD/YEN alternatively.

But only position traders can buy expecting the rise from monday.

Regards

Dr.Sivaraman

EURO and GBP made the rise and drop for 2 days,the act of the big players to induce long liquidation from the traders when the big players wanting to buy at the lowest levels.

Today week end and month end time, the big players are known to make volatile moves to earn either way - hitting the stops of the long holders at lower levels and then hitting the stops of the short sellers at higher levels.

Expected market moves - Nominal swing during Japanese session,followed by quick rise during gap time and drop during Early European session,then recovery from mid European session.Then gap time before US session a false drop and then a qucik rise during US session.

Stop hunt moves below low are buy opportunities to close when they make upward stop hunts above high.

Regards

Dr.Sivaraman

EURO and GBP made the rise during Japanese session and then dropped to closer to low during early European session   and now holding near the middle levels for want of volume.By12:30 GMT US GDP data is expected to be released.The expected moves before and after are as follows:

from 11:30 12:30 GMT they are expected to rise and cut the high and make some swings above high and then after data release expected tp slide EURO and GBP and after gap time swings they are expected to make one quick slide and firm up again during US session if the volume of traders participation is optimal.Swing trade opportunities will be seen

Regards

Dr.Sivaraman

The big players are now more focused in YEN crosses during Japanese and European sessions and on European crosses during US session- squeezing every day the traders trying to take lower level long position in YEN  crosses and higher level short in European crosses,

Varied moves of some pairs up and some pairs down as contrarian moves they are making to present the market clueless.EURO quick rise and nominal rise in GBP,more rise in EURO and relatively less drop in USD/CHF, and more rise in AUD and less drop in USD/CAD - mainly focussing on the crosses - then they will make expected moves in majors.The consolidation is getting dragged due to relatively low volume.

Today’s eexpected moves - EURO and GBP are expected to firm up during Japanese session,slide and quick rise during European session and volatile moves during US session ( quick down and quick up moves)

Regards

Dr.Sivaraman

The drop during European session happened as expected and the market was holding in the middle level even after US data release.But suddenly the selling came.The lower level short sellers when they cut the short and turn long predominantly then the big players make the drop.Again today the expected US session move did not happen and I am sorry for the same.Monthly trend reversal time such varied moves do happen and hence I suggested keep stop at entry once the position makes some profit to eleminate the risk.

It appears many traders are holding unfavorable positions in crosses - hence the continued hammering in YEN crosses and rise in European crosses is happening.

Every day I will give the expected moves as blog post for the day.I request the readers to use their own assessment and take positions and use appropriate trading strategies.I can also give the support and resistances on either way instead of the expected moves, but that may not act as any signal.

Regards

Dr.Sivaraman

EURO and GBP gained somw ground as expected after FOMC meeting minutes.They are expected to swing during mid European session to make dips in YEN crosses and then spike up during US session.Dipe and near mid levels (between high and low ) are buy opportunities.

Regards

Dr.Sivaraman

EURO and GBP were holding near low for long time without cutting the low and it was informed here  that  the rise is expected.Now slow  rise with swings are seen and USD/YEN is also not dropping during EURO and GBP rise.This sort of move indicate that the big players are buyers of the selling happening in the market.I think the expected unassuming move they have started now.

You can keep stop at entry in your buy position if taken and watch the market moves and close accordingly.

During FOMC meeting minute release time they are expected to make small downward swing and then continue the firming up move.

Regards

Dr.Sivaraman

EURO and GBP are holding near low to handle the YEN crosses and now they are about to firm up till close of this session.Market is expected to swing from low to near today’s high during the day.

Regards

Dr.Sivaraman