Operators' intentions read by 
Predominant days of this month we saw USD gaining moves.The drop was seen with less pull backs and more drop condition.The summer holiday time is getting over, and market is expected to get back the normal traders volume in the days to come.
Let us review friday week end moves: EURO and GBP rised lesser than the previous day highs and formed new lows for the day and around the lows of this week.It appears that the traders taken long positions at lower levels were not given profit booking opportunities and instead stoppedout during US session pip by pip drop.Those of you happen to watch the live market quote page or the platform deal station quote page might have noticed that the orders were seen alternatively - lower level sell order followed by higher level buy order very frequently.Then towards close of the session EURO and GBP closed slightly imporved levels near low.
The dump and pump move condition was seen during final week of this month.When big volume positions are to be taken to control the market - the big traders buy in a spread of 200-500 pips .They sell 5000 lots at lower level and buy 10000 lots .This way their buy level of the holding positions become lower than that of the market.Then to off load their buy positions with profit the market is rised and rised with the swings - during that time they buy 5000 lots and sell 10000 lots to move the market up.
Markets are known to face bullish and bearish phases alternatively.Now we know during last month when the entire talk in the market was about bullishness of EURO and GBP and further higher levels were derived following channel pattens.Then we know that was actually sell time after seeing present condition of the market.Now one month correction in EURO and GBP created bearish feel - but we need to judge whether it is sell time or buy time.unless we see the next month move we cannot accept that EURO and GBP can rise again.Hence we need the forecast.My estimate, based on the algorithm is a rise in EURO and GBP during Sept, either way moves during Oct and unexpected rise in November and then profit booking drop during Dec 2008.
These are just forecast and the chances of it happening may vary.Let us review the market during the rest 4 months of the year and then assess whether the forecast algorithm is dependable or not.
I will now give the expected market moves for Monday.
EURO and GBP are expected to open nominally up and firm up during Japanese session and then make small swings during early European session to confuse traders and then firm up nicely from mid European session and make a quick drop and then continue the firming up move during US session inspite of being holiday in US.This time USD/YEN is expected to alternatively rise along with EURO and GBP and there again near low are buy opportunities.
Please use the forecast as an additional input in your market analysis and then take trading decision.
Have a nice week end.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
You make mention of big players and 10,000 lots. Even at standard 1,000 per lot that is only $10,000,000. Enough to manipulate the mkt I have a hard time accepting. We regularly hear of figures into the 100,00,000’s so how can 10,000,000 manipulate the mkt?
Are you now of the opinion that if EUR does not rally next week it might not?
Hi Greg,
Here Mr.Dr has given exaple of 1:2, when they sell 1 lot at lower levels to push the market further lower they will also buy 2 lots in that move for a quick rise …. so net they will be making profit on 1 lot long…
about Sept, after a drop of 1600 pips last month, GBP expected to move further lower towards 1.75 in the coming days…. but having said that I expect GBP to get good support around 1.8088 levels and one should buy there for a profit target of minimum 3-4 biggy….
Euro also will make a new low below 1.4570, I expect euro to reach in between 1.4300-45 and then swing towards 1.50….
by Dec08, we will be moving below 1.40 and 1.70 in euro and GBP…..
regards
Krishna
Dear DR,
I have a question regarding your predictions of reversals as quite often you predict reversal and you are often wrong. For example last friday you predicted reversal of Yen pairs, instead we had a continuation. Similar week ago on Friday after move of EUR to 1.49 you predicted initial dip early morning than reversal up in US session, we got continuation of EUR sellof for a whole day till new low after IFO last week. So my question is on the base of what you predict those reversals ?? Propability of continuation is 2 times higher than reversals, perhaps you know it.
I have another question about your algorithm as perhaps you play with it for a long time. What is accuracy of your long term prediction based on algorithm in the history, I’m sure you keep track of it.
Regarding sellof yen croses on Friday. It was done
in two stages, first by droping USDJPY till 108.5
than by dumping relevant currencies against USD
(drop of AUD, GBP and EUR). From your observation
does it mean something or it is always like this in this order ?? In your opinion it is at least temporary bottom of Yen crossess ??
And general question about operators strategy. Do you have a plan for a day or the change the plan during session ??
Krzysztof
Hi Doc,
First all I think the previous question asked by krzysztof are very valid. I would like to ask you this, You say for example the operators are buying two for every one they drop ,then they rise knowing they forced the drop and against herd so now at the bottom after they buy they have to wait for the rise going with the herd to collect then once collect repeat process vice versa for opposite trend. Well what happens when the price just keeps dropping what do they do with those long positions ? they cant keep averagedown, Because I suspect they all will try and squeeze each other out.I believe you when you say THEY, but if you could be more forthcoming in how they manage their trades then that will give everyone a mental picture as to what is happening in this enviroment where in.
Hi Doc,
I forgot to say that if you say it doe’s not matter how THEY manage their trade we need to stay emotionless and trade with no bull/bear bias , well this is absurd, as you have personally experienced the last 4 weeks if you have no thoughts on when the large commercials are going to keep Dropping and Start Rising why trade at all? What do you say about my guess , that is they are rising marginally and profit taking and keep shorting not buying 2/1 , yes they do use news data for excuse to rise and drop .
Dear Greg
Standard 1 lot =100,000 $. 1000 $ lot is 1 mini lot. Now week beginning EURO dipped less when compared to GBP that rised EURO/GBP crosse.They have to reverse EURO/GBP to rise more GBP and less rise in EURO.we have to wait and see when they intend to do that.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
Dear Krzysztof
There are intra-day,weekly and monthly and yearly trend reversals.So the timing of the trebd reversals are calculated and given as forecast.Then the levels are estimated to incorporate into the expected market moves.This time the the expected upward swings did not happen significantly- the reason could be low volume or the big players wanted to squeeze the long holders and when the long holders hold for long time without stop- then they make margin call moves like this.We donot have access to their plan and we read their act and understand what could be their plan as the plan has to be expressed in the market.That is being named as reading the operators’ intentions from their market moves.I am using the forecast model and also market reading and still to limit the risk using trading strategies to manage the equity.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
Dear sean
They bought the positions in EURO and GBP by drop against their higher level sell positions from 1.57 - 1.60 in EURO and 1.94 -2.01 in GBP.
They are the ones moving the market.So they have to first rise the market to sell their holdings - so they need to by 1 part and sell 2 part and keeping rising - hence we find extended rise for 3 days during Early Jul and then holding high.I was telling that they were sellers - but I had big criticisms from readers that I am asking traders to go against the trend.Then the drop came.I only suggested buy and sell trades for intra-day - ie buy during downward stop hunt and trail stop to book profit during firming up.But I was criticised that I was bullish and the market is bearish and pull backs one should sell.
So after buying against their sells buy dropping the market - they start dropping when needed if traders turn long and buy from them - just opposite of how they rised and rised and induce traders to make short cover on the higher side.So the stop of the trader is a higher level buy there and the players sold to them.Now the traders stop are lower level sell orders - when traders sell they buy at the bottom.So initially they will make loss in buys and later when they are fully bought and rise they will have huge buy position with profit.If the traders are willing to buy from them at higher levels they will give ,if not they rise more and then ask traders to buy.This is how all the markets are manipulated.
Hope I have explained it properly now.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
Dear Doc ,
yes thank you for your reply and description, that is much clearer,
Dear sean
Your further question regarding no bullish or bearish fell during trading.I only suggested no bullish or bearish fell during trading and view the market as sell and buy trade or buy and sell trade market.Because frequenly the players change the market sentiments,if we develop the feel then difficult to change the feel as quick as the market.Every day there is either way trading oppostunity could be seen as sell near high and buy bear low or buy near low and sell near high- but we have to perceive which is safer trade,that is my concept to convey.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman