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BOE and ECB interest rate decisions -expected market moves for Today

Posted on September 4, 2008 at 7:04 in Market comment, Market forecast, Operators' intentions by Dr. S. Sivaraman

Today is considered as an i\mportant day by forex traders as BOE and ECB are to announce the interest rate decisions by  11:00 and 11:45 GMT.Besides the famous ECB press conference is there by 12:30 GMT.

The market is expected to make false move before every announcement and that will indicate their action after the announcement.Suppose they drop EURO and GBP before announcement then you can expect them to rise after the announcement.

Expected market moves for today: During Japanese session close they are expected to make some dip in EURO and GBP and some nominal swings during Gap time before start of European session.Then early European session they are expected to drop USD/YEN and later make range bound swings during interest rate announcements.ECB press conference is expected to trigger some down and up moves in EURO and GBP and good firming up move expected during US session.if traders take active part in taking positions then the volatile moves will be wild and finally EURO and GBP are expected to gain nicely by end of the day.Tomorrow NFP data release time there will be subdue moves and later week end upward spike is expected.What the drop we have seen could be the anticlimax before the climax reversal expected from today and tomorrow.

I will give more posts during the important data release time for you to understand the players intentions.

Regards

Dr.Sivaraman

8 Responses to “BOE and ECB interest rate decisions -expected market moves for Today”

  1. on 04 Sep 2008 at 7:26 am1sean

    Dear Doc,

    what time is gap time at begining of euro/session? and asian session , Doc do you think it possible that they have risen since late yesterday euro/session for a drop on data release then the npf are and good excuse to rise again if data bad

  2. on 04 Sep 2008 at 8:08 am2John

    Good morning Mr. Sivaraman,

    You wrote: quote “What the drop we have seen could be the anticlimax before the climax reversal expected from today and tomorrow.” unquote.

    Would you mind explaining exactly what you mean by that. Thank you.

    John

  3. on 04 Sep 2008 at 8:30 am3Dr. S. Sivaraman

    Dear sean

    Gap time before European session is 7:00-7:30 GMT and before US session is 13:00-13:30 GMT.we can assume any way as you mentioned- but we need certain criteria to expect that - like techical analysis we also require some confirmation for such moves.You can think about that
    Regards
    Dr.Sivaraman

  4. on 04 Sep 2008 at 8:32 am4Dr. S. Sivaraman

    good morning John

    Yesterday Japanese session drop was a false drop ( anticlimax) before the expected rise today and tomorrow (climax).
    Anticlimax is to divert the viewers and make the climax as surprise in story telling.
    Regards
    Dr.Sivaraman

  5. on 04 Sep 2008 at 8:37 am5Krzysztof

    Dear DR,

    So they rised USDJPY not dropped and now they are holding all YEN pairs. Why you predict this ??? They were shorting YEN crosses for a weeks so most likely they sit on big short positions and rate announcement can trigger some panic
    short cover so this move was obvious….does your algo considers such things ??

    You predicted rebound of yen crossess from Monday and $ weaknes. Are you still hold this call that yen crosses will rise together with $ weakness ?? It means that USDJPY can not fall or even rise during $ weakness period.

    At the moment YEN pairs are beeing hold even that $ rebounds
    from morning fall i.e. USDJPY rising at the same ratio as
    majors falling. What does it mean in your opinion ??

    Krzysztof

  6. on 04 Sep 2008 at 8:51 am6Dr. S. Sivaraman

    Dear cagkor

    I have explained in my another post of today about YEN crosses recovery and sequential recovery in all pairs.What you are trying to refer is called contrarian move - ie holding USD/YEN and rising GBP and EURO and holding EURO and GBP rising USD/YEN.They did the opposite to drop yen crosses big and bought all level stops and short sellings.Then they rise to book profit in the long positions/
    Regards
    Dr.Sivaraman

  7. on 04 Sep 2008 at 9:46 am7cagkor

    Hi Doctor,

    I didnt make a comment in this post, possibly you were referring to Krzysztof i think.
    Regards

  8. on 04 Sep 2008 at 9:53 am8sudheesh

    dear sir ,

    what about today , BOE and ECB interest rate decisions
    your expectation

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