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Operators' intentions read by Dr. S. Sivaraman, of i-knowindices.com

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USD gaining all the way

Posted on September 9, 2008 at 6:09 in Market comment, Market forecast by Dr. S. Sivaraman

EURO and GBP are being sold at every level.USD is gaining every minute.Market appears to be under rerating of the currencies..Since they have shown new low in EURO and GBP there could be further speculative selling taking advantage of the free fall.The lower psychological levels might be breached today in EURO and GBP.But every quick selling drop turn out to be a recovery and every pull back leads to correction.Trading decisions are to be taken carefully with good trading plan.

Expected market moves: EURO and GBP are expected to swing and slide during late Japanese session and a small pull back up to high or slightly above high could be seen during gap time and European session start and then slide will happen with swings and some more drop during US session.

Regards

Dr.Sivaraman

21 Responses to “USD gaining all the way”

  1. on 09 Sep 2008 at 6:35 am1j.j

    dear Dr.sivaraman only few days ago i said that who we call them big plyer r doing the job for their central banks and their goverments ? regards

  2. on 09 Sep 2008 at 6:40 am2Krzysztof

    Dear DR,

    I follow your blog since two months and I would like to share with the bloggers my conclusions. First I agree market is manipulated, stop hunts are clearly visible up and down.

    Regarding your calls and algorithm. Your calls were OK as long they were according to main trend so trend was helping them. From level EUR 1.54 you started to look for a bounce claiming that big players are buyers and later on from 1.5 till now to look for a bottom whic so far didin’t happen.
    Even on Friday when there was no continuation of $ weakness after NFP and yesterday after such strong reversal morning from central weekly pivot you were claiming EUR/GBP rise, never continuation. Your calls are totally misguiding, perhaps the algorithm don’t work for current conditions or only working when luckly trend is with it.

    Your strategy of 30 min not cutted low is total bulshit when it is called against the trend in most cases, because
    it implies reversal not pullback and continuation.

    Personally I think you should be banned from this site as your algorithm definitelly gives wrong calls and your interpretations of moves (like at 1.54 that big players are buyers) are misguiding the traders.

    So I think you should return to basics….

    Krzysztof

  3. on 09 Sep 2008 at 7:30 am3Ron

    Hello,
    I cannot agree with you more, Krzysztof. Looking at posts of Mr. Shivaraman, I come up with the conclusion that he should be banned to publish a single word at fxstreet. There’s no place for amateurs.
    Regards,

  4. on 09 Sep 2008 at 7:44 am4Rudy

    Hi Ron & Krzyszlof,

    Its naive to blame dr S for his so-called wrong calls thereby banning him from this site. Then we may as well cancel all the trader blogs. I have done a survey of all the traders writing a blog on this site and there is no-one hitting it right more than 30% of the time, in time and in choice of trends. You dont need to read dr S’s blog if you dont want too. You can choose anyone else’s and try to find a better guide for you. I am afraid the holy grail wont be found there but rather right in front of you, there where your trading system is. If you are not confortable with his views dont read it or if you read it view this as getting an extra angle towards FX trading, comp;imentary to your system. But dont start blaming someone else for your lack of confidence in your own system.

    rudy

  5. on 09 Sep 2008 at 8:06 am5Ron

    Hello Rudy,
    I’m far from utilizing Shivaraman’s approach to the market. With no offence but it’s bullshit for me.
    Following your way of thinking, Rudy, everybody could be an expert in FX market and have personal blog at FXstreet. Even a monkey could guess right from time to time. The problem with Shivaraman is that he has been completely misreading the market. If you don not agree with me, please compare charts with his calls … I agree that his theory is interesting, and that’s all … Fxstreet has to consider whether the fact that the theory is “interesting” is an enough reason to publish it.

  6. on 09 Sep 2008 at 8:07 am6hamda

    OK now when the dr is saying so it’s about time to buy euro and pound.

  7. on 09 Sep 2008 at 8:30 am7mrT

    I really thought I posted my last post on this blog, but desperate times call for desperate measures…

    Krzysztof and Ron are right. It is my humble opinion, that doc is a high level con artist at best.

    I question even the existence of this “algorithm”. Algorithms tend to be written by humans and humans tend to adjust. So do algorithms if humans take care to notice their output…

    Furthermore, algorithms tend to be far more specific in their output, as “fuzzy logic” is harder to implement. Doc’s market assessment is beyond fuzzy bordering to downright hairy.

    Only human complacence creates predictions that can be that wrong that often, that uncorrected for so long and with that fierce and stuborn decisiveness.

    Sorry, but - my 7 year old son makes better judgment without that elusive algorithm. Tested and proven.

  8. on 09 Sep 2008 at 8:50 am8Krzysztof

    Dear Rudy,

    Calling yesterday for US session rise was only ego of DR as
    from simple chart 4H EURUSD is visible that it was a bounce from 21EMA and central weekly pivot. Calling a bottom on Friday after reversal of $ weakness after NFP even USDCHF cutted the high was insane.

    The trend simple continued. Maybe we are at the bottom but his calls are created by his ego not trading rules and I doubt about algorithm also. Finally he will of course
    shot something after 1600 pips hunt for it. Readers are coming and going, new ones don’t know the history.

    His headging method is simple booking 30 pips loss and after remove the hedge is a new trade, when uncussesfull next heaging with 60 pips loss this time etc.

    Krzysztof

  9. on 09 Sep 2008 at 9:06 am9Eli

    Hello everybody,

    First, there is no place to hide. Indeed, the forecasts of Dr. Sivaraman during the last month were consistently wrong.
    On the other hand, his approach should be tested on a perspective of a much larger period of time. If you handle your account with appropriate risks management then you shouldn’t loose over 5% so far. On the long term your trades would be profitable.
    Let’s not forget that his forecasts were very profitable on many other times. No one can be 100% right and being 70% right is great.

    Regarding the market, I believe that a trend reversal is happening. I’m buying GBP with a risk of 0.5% and stop loss of 400pips.

    Best regards,
    Eli

  10. on 09 Sep 2008 at 9:20 am10Spiro

    I agree with the above but i hv the feel the Doc is stucked in a short USD position from sky high n this blocks him in clear judegement but an algorithm wudnt do this.
    The main problem is that the calls are stated as the only truth w/o any doubt.
    It looks to me at least 2 person write on behalf of the Doc as 1 apologies for the wrong calls the other says he forsee the whole story?? How is it?
    As a matter of fact i was profiting more from the viewers comment. Thx n bi

  11. on 09 Sep 2008 at 9:25 am11Krzysztof

    Dear Eli,

    His calls are given per session as a swing trades, long term
    EUR and GBP will rise sometime. If you look his website for a historical long term calls they were also wrong, 1.49 suppouse to be a top…

    Krzysztof

  12. on 09 Sep 2008 at 9:38 am12Spiro

    I ment the other opinionns not Eli’s.

    Concerning the hedging (wht proposed on the blog) in same ccy pairs with different direction is complete waste of money as yu lock the loss n trade twice as much, so yu lose the spreads?

  13. on 09 Sep 2008 at 9:40 am13jon

    Dear Dr,

    It should be more than 50% chance of success in market most times, for analysts with sound judgement. youve been saying the gbp and eur had bottomed against usd for the last month. Now that its certainly closer to a turnaround; youve changed tune. That does not seem like sound judgement.

    Maybe the big players use you to read market sentiment and act against you? coz most times it dont look like you know what they are doing

  14. on 09 Sep 2008 at 9:49 am14pepe

    Dr, it does not sound like you trade with your own money, its easy to be brave and calm (and stupid) when you dont have your own trades on.

  15. on 09 Sep 2008 at 9:59 am15sean

    Hi Doc,

    Doc can you explain your definition of this please

    >But every quick selling drop turn out to be a recovery and >every pull back leads to correction.

  16. on 09 Sep 2008 at 10:30 am16Eli

    The questions that everyone should ask himself are as follows:
    1. Do I believe that the market is being dominated aggressively by the big players (the biggest banks and private equity funds)? If the answer is no then I haven’t got anything to do in this blog
    2. Do I truly and honestly managing my account’s risks in a correct manner? had I ever risked over 2% since I wanted to earn big and fast?
    3. Were my positions entered at the right timing or was I entering positions hearing my emotions?

    My own answers are “yes” to the 1st question and “no” to the others. Today I’m quite good with managing risks but still not good enough. The facts are such that I lost 5.7% of my account during the last month instead of loosing only 4%. Allow me to guess that your answers are the same but you lost more.

    What I’m trying to say is that I’m blaming only myself when I deserve it.

  17. on 09 Sep 2008 at 10:40 am17Tinku

    I read somewhere :dont worry about what market is going to do, but worry what u r going to do with respect to market action”

    basically we need a blog where both technical and fundamental trading calls are discussed and posted….

    and always remember in this type of market…. trend is always ur friend hence never fight with it - respect market movement, otherwise ur account will be wiped out….

    when including roadside shoe polisher ask you to sell GBP and EUR against USD, then that is the best time to buy those bucks for some decent profit

    buy GBP @ 1.73/74 levels for a target of 1.82/83 - 2 month target, stop 1.70

    Buy Euro 1.39/40 levels for a target of 1.45/46 - 2 months target, stop below 1.3600

    regards

  18. on 09 Sep 2008 at 10:48 am18Thawfeek

    os this is the low for 1.4040 for eur/usd,now it will take retreat with eur/usd.hereafter will it be a uptrend for eur/usd.

  19. on 09 Sep 2008 at 11:02 am19bob

    I have followed dr. siv on fx street for about 18 months to date. i would honestly say he is quite consistent in his analysis 90% of the time. I must admit that i was losing money with his market predictions the first 3 or 4 months then i decided to take the opposite side of those predictions. ever since then i have been consistently profitable most of the time (80%+). No doubt about big money manipulation. he’s right on with that. Thanks Dr.

  20. on 09 Sep 2008 at 11:07 am20Ben

    It angers me that such a con is allowed to influence people’s money making decisions.

    I am boycotting FXStreet as a result. Keeping this blog active shows POOR JUDGEMENT on behalf of the management.

  21. on 09 Sep 2008 at 2:36 pm21Ben

    Again, im making clear, that the previous post is not written by me (the Ben that’s been posting here for 3 months).

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