31 Responses to “Breaking psychological levels”

1. on 11 Sep 2008 at 8:35 am1sean

   Dear Doc,’

   What do you mean when you say the big players are tending

2. on 11 Sep 2008 at 10:11 am2j.j

   Dear Dr sivaraman pls reply with yr comment as i respect yrs:what we see is a secret intervantion by central banks in order to stabilize the $ and as isaid before the what we call them the big plyer r only doning the job for the C.B
   rgards

3. on 11 Sep 2008 at 11:15 am3fxwealth

   Dear Doc,
   If you believe so much in your algorithms, perhaps you can also add this in the mix:
   http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aQRpvLnjrc.M&refer=home

   Then perhaps your predictions can be as accurate as you wish them to be. In one of your post, you mentioned eur/usd will go to 1.5 and gbp/usd will go to 1.95 this month.

   Wishful thinking so traders beware! You have been warned.

   fxwealth

4. on 11 Sep 2008 at 11:23 am4fxwealth

   To those who want an unbiased, straight talking , no BS, FREE commentary for your trading analysis, check this website out:
   http://www.fxinsights.com/forums/showthread.php?p=9525#post9525

   Traders, for your info, I do not get anything out of this except to give the uninitiated, a second opinion especially to those who bled following Doc’s advise. I was one of those.

   fxwealth

5. on 11 Sep 2008 at 11:40 am5wayne N. Meeks

   Fxwealth,

   My take is that the Doc is telling us what his model says - no matter what that happens to be.

   That is right thing to do. What should he do? Report a forecast based on some other - inconsistant with the model -information?

   How could we ever calibrate our understanding of the model’s behavior if he mixed it’s results with other stuff?

   One can and should agree or disagree with it. But we must have it’s forecast undiluted with extraneous stuff.

6. on 11 Sep 2008 at 11:43 am6sean

   >I was one of those

   it sounds like it.

7. on 11 Sep 2008 at 12:36 pm7fxwealth

   wayne,
   the greatest lessons we can learn is to humble ourself and if we are wrong to take responsibility and try to improve. that said, i take full responsibility for making trades that went against me when i used Doc’s advise. for that i do not blame him except myself because i was stupid to listen to him when it was obvious the trend was going down.

   doc’s call has been nothing but dismal lately. i was merely suggesting that if he truly believe that he can help others with his algorithms and what not, perhaps looking at other things and listening to the markets may not be such a bad idea. afterall, he readily admitted that his system is not perfect (whose is anyway?)

   so with Doc giving remarks like this:
   “EURO and GBP are expected to cut the lower psychological levels during late European sesssion cutting the present lows and then slowly firm up during US session.Tomorrow wild moves are expected for week end.”

   good for you wayne, if you’re happily laughing all the way to the bank.

   regards,
   fxwealth

8. on 11 Sep 2008 at 12:53 pm8wayne N. Meeks

   Fxwealth,

   I have no problem with the quote that you related.

   Would you find the quote more palatable if you replaced all form of the verb “to be” with “maybe”?

   I automatically do that with all prognostications no matter who makes them.

9. on 11 Sep 2008 at 1:17 pm9mrT

   wayne N. Meeks
   No, but a quote that sounds like:

   Today volatile moves will commence. Psychological levels will be broken to the upside followed by breaking the levels to the downside and vice versa first. Either way trading opportunities will commence with slow rises and spikes all over the place from now till midsession and from gap time drops to late US session rising spike drops.

   This sort of dribble works fairly well in a ranging market, but gose extremely bad in a trending one.

   Many people say god gets it right, but the timing is wrong. I say, it’s not good enough to have a regular stool. You have to hit the toilette too. Otherwise you’ve got shit all over the place.

10. on 11 Sep 2008 at 1:29 pm10wayne N. Meeks

    You’re right, the model doesn’t seem to work very well in a trending market, but, then neither do stochastics.

    I use both stochastics and Doc’s advice as seems appropriate - I never feel let down or upset by either.

11. on 11 Sep 2008 at 1:29 pm11fxwealth

    wayne,
    not sure what you are referring to. please elaborate.

    regards,
    fxwealth

12. on 11 Sep 2008 at 1:37 pm12wayne N. Meeks

    The point is to use whatever when it works.

    What doesn’t work just now isn’t “dribble” it’s simply stuff that, hopefully, I didn’t weight too heavily in making trading decisions.

13. on 11 Sep 2008 at 1:59 pm13oriencio

    What will happen to EURGBP? was it final wave 5 at 0,8180?
    Is this the last currency that will go in to a bear market till …down the line.

    Thanks for your advise

14. on 11 Sep 2008 at 2:23 pm14mike

    It’s too bad that the doc does not comment here anymore.

    I think his view is quite valuable.

15. on 11 Sep 2008 at 2:39 pm15Ben

    Well, he doesen’t comment anymore, because of unrespectful people that have been commenting here lately (it irritates me, that they used my name too, since i was always defending him). They have blamed him for their losses (i have lost money this month too, but it was only my fault, nobody else’s).

    I just hope he realizes that the vast majority of his readers really respect his view of the market (nobody can be right all the time), and there were just a few insulting him…if he stops commenting, then they’ll get what they wanted.

16. on 11 Sep 2008 at 3:06 pm16mike

    Ben,

    I agree. The doc should not care about those disrespectfull people. His comments are for people to understand the market better.

17. on 11 Sep 2008 at 4:12 pm17Krzysztof

    To be honest I can not believe how he can be wrong almost all the time recently. The fact is that the recent decline is very unusall, daily stochastic has a value near 0 ! Simply he was looking for reversal of the trend all the time saying something about monthly limits of big players.
    Why they should have any limits as their money power grows all the time when the price fall.

    If his prognosis are based on his algo than it is total crap
    as simply coin trowing gives chances of 50% success but it is not a case here.

    Krzysztof

18. on 11 Sep 2008 at 4:50 pm18Ben

    Krzystof

    It’s because of people like you that he’s not commenting anymore, i’d say.
    If you think it’s a coin toss, then simply don’t read this blog and leave…we want to read this blog and Dr’s comments.

    There’s something called politeness, you should give it a try.

19. on 11 Sep 2008 at 5:32 pm19Krzysztof

    Ben

    He claims that the accuracy of his algorithm is 80-90% and
    reality is that is calls are missed recently almost all the time, how it can be than? In most of the cases he looks for the reversal not continuation and it is against the rules specjallly in strong trend. See comments of the other guys to his recent posts during this and last week.

    Krzysztof

20. on 11 Sep 2008 at 5:54 pm20Forex

    I have seen records of this managed accounts. For may and juin. Here he gets this 80-90% winning percentage. And good returns on monthly base. I think part of us do not understand his tradingstyle enough to judge. On the longer term the last weeks he was not right. But he did his effort to explain his trading more with explanation of how he does. So don’t blame him although he has a less good period. I suppose we all do. A bad month is not a bad year.

21. on 11 Sep 2008 at 5:55 pm21j.j

    krzystof
    the usa economy and its financial marketis full of scandals and corruption(it is piece of shit ) so pls keep buying and dont look back

22. on 11 Sep 2008 at 6:38 pm22mrT

    Disrespectful talk?

    I beg you pardon. It is disrespectful to claim black is white. That’s disrespectful.
    It’s not disrespectful to be wrong many times. It’s disrespectful to be wrong 10 times, than hit it right for 1 time and bask in the glory of your miserable luck.

    As for the “dribble”. English might not be my first language, but I do know what intelligible language sounds like.
    That ain’t it.

23. on 11 Sep 2008 at 7:05 pm23j.j

    to every body Dr. sivaraman was stating his view in his blog he is free to say it and you what u call yr self a tradetar take his view or leave the $ is there go and buy it and dont forget to enjoy the its smell it is so smelly

24. on 11 Sep 2008 at 7:37 pm24mike

    doc,

    are they going to raise USD/JPY to make GBP/Jpy, EUR/JPY go up too?

    This will make GBP,EUR/USD go up??

    ty

25. on 11 Sep 2008 at 8:49 pm25vinesh

    Dear Doc we miss your analysis please come back

26. on 11 Sep 2008 at 9:45 pm26Entz

    Thank you for your good job Dr Sivaraman.
    We haven’t got enought blog like this in France.
    I read your blog every day with attention.
    It change a lot compared to stricly charting point of view and it has given to me information that was missing to improve my trading.
    When you do something you expose yourself to criticism and when you don’t do anything it’s ok, dispite the fact that you are honest and you tell that the readers don’t have to follow your advices forgetting their own point of view.

    Best regards from France to the americans especially that terrible day.

    PS: Excuse me for my bad english.

27. on 11 Sep 2008 at 10:46 pm27Guy

    Hi Doc! Does the carry trade explain why the market is so sensitive to interest rate changes? Does your model factor in the massive amount of money that must move around because of carry trades. If would seem the worse the Japanese economy gets the stronger the Yen gets. Does this explain why the USD is on the rise?

    I believe the bulk of currency trades are a function of economic activity and that players are only capable of exaggerating a trend for a short-time, or reversing a trend for a short-time, which is why the currency always reverts back to the trend with a correction - would you agree?

28. on 12 Sep 2008 at 4:47 am28su25

    Phil Newton, another blogger at Fxstreet, has posted an excellent reply which every reader should read before posting comments. Phil’s post can be read at

    http://blogs.fxstreet.com/tradesetups/2008/09/11/name-and-shame/

29. on 12 Sep 2008 at 5:17 am29Dr. S. Sivaraman

    Dear su25
    Thanks for giving the link the the reaponse of Phil Newton, my co-blogger.I agree with him.
    market does not give easy money.
    Regards
    Dr.Sivaraman

30. on 12 Sep 2008 at 5:44 am30Real

    Dr. S. Sivaraman, Good morning. Yesterday, you were right : “EURO and GBP are expected to cut the lower psychological levels during late European sesssion cutting the present lows and then slowly firm up during US session.Tomorrow wild moves are expected for week end.”

    Please be more specific about the “wild moves” of today. Will market trade down this morning during european session and firming again during US ? Please give it your best shot. What will the trading range for today be and when do you think the bottom will be touched; during which sesion ?Tks/Rgds, Real.

31. on 12 Sep 2008 at 5:47 am31Real

    Sorry Doc. I was enquiring about the EURUSD (and EURJPY). Tks/rgds, Real.

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