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Operators' intentions read by Dr. S. Sivaraman, of i-knowindices.com

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ECB decision and press conference - expected moves before and after

Posted on October 2, 2008 at 10:43 in Market comment, Market forecast, Operators' intentions by Dr. S. Sivaraman

By 11:45 GMT ECB deciion on the interest rate is expected.Majority expect unchange in the rate.Followed by  that is the  press conference at 12:30 GMT.Market wants to know whether the talk of Trichet is going to be dovish or hawkish.But the traders are anxious to know whether EURO and GBP are expected to rise or fall.

As you know well the players normally make a false move before the event and then make the intentional move.Since there are 2 events with a gap of 45 min - they are expected to make small swings  and dip before the rate decision and then rise quickly EURO and GBP and  make swings of 40-50 pips up and down during the press conference  and firm up till close of European session 13:00 GMT.Then gap time and US session start they are expected to make dip and quick drop and then firm up again .During that process they are expected to present  through media that ECB event is over and then NFP data could give more impact to the market.

When traders wait fora clear picture of the market before taking positions,the market is expected to make range bound swings and suddenly open with a gap and move unassumingly as late reaction to the event.The trick of the players now is to make unexpected moves when there is no big anticipation from the traders.That too they imply that the market reacted late to the news or events.The players know well that traders will make distress decisions when there is surprise.When traders wait for the events to give the market direction,the players bring surprise by making late reactions to the same.Eg.The bailout story of yesterday did not bring any big moves during US session but today during Japanese session the big move was made.

Ultimately the players know how to trap traders and earn, however the traders try to become defensive in their trading during every next position taking time - an endless rat race.

Regards

Dr.Sivaraman

10 Responses to “ECB decision and press conference - expected moves before and after”

  1. on 02 Oct 2008 at 10:51 am1hamda

    so now you take your forecast back ha? it’s not good to me because now your comment is not clear and i dont know what to do opposite. how can i earn without doing opposite to your forecasts?

  2. on 02 Oct 2008 at 11:05 am2hamda

    i’ll just say facts: in the early morning the doctor said that the euro and gbp will raise in the european session. that was a good reason for me to buy more euro and gbp. now you tell me who’s right?

  3. on 02 Oct 2008 at 11:19 am3Ben

    Why was that “a good reason” to buy? Start thinking for yourself rather than thinking that there’s a “guru” who can tell you exactly what to do in order to make money. Sivaraman is just a regular guy who happens to be have a blog.

  4. on 02 Oct 2008 at 11:24 am4hamda

    ben i was wrong. i meant sell.
    ben it’s amazing you have still money to operate your computer. how do you pay the electric and the internet service?
    so now the doctor is an ordinary man ha? i remember you were talking about him as a guru

  5. on 02 Oct 2008 at 11:30 am5Ben

    Why is that amazing? How do you pay for yours?

    I would never refer to him as a guru! My point was simple - do a little research of your own and develop a strategy. It will, I guarantee you, be much less likely to lose you money than relying on others, especially the author of this particular blog.

  6. on 02 Oct 2008 at 11:39 am6hamda

    i developed my own strategy long time ago after a very deep and serious research. the strategy is to follow this blog and perform exactly the opposite to the forecasts of the doctor. it’s working great so far so please dont confuse the doctor to tell us more opposite forecasts.

  7. on 02 Oct 2008 at 12:27 pm7Ben 1

    Again, i want to make clear that the person who wrote the posts before as Ben is not me. I’ve been posting here for 4 months (not so much lately though) as Ben, and Dr.S knows me, i don’t want any confusions…so i’ll start to post as Ben 1 from now on.

    Dear Dr. it’s been a long time since i haven’t wrote here… what’s your opinion about the Yen crosses ? You normally say you don’t believe in the correlation between the stock markets and yen crosses, but lately it’s been an almost exact correlation. Do you think GBP-YEN and other yen crosses will come back to more “normal” levels next week, after the bailout siutation is clear ? Or they’re going to be traded at this new levels for a while ?

    Thank you very much Dr.

  8. on 02 Oct 2008 at 12:39 pm8hamda

    thank you again doctor for a wonderful new opposite forecast. you know what? you are my opposite guru

  9. on 02 Oct 2008 at 12:53 pm9hamda

    ben? everything is ok? suddenly you are so quite

  10. on 02 Oct 2008 at 1:23 pm10Wayne N. Meeks

    Hamda,

    I just spoke to your doppleganger - he lives in the real universe where the polarity of everything isn’t reversed.

    He, doing fine and has no need to reverse everything.

    Also, as he is not in the reverse polarity universe, he is NOT a horse’s arse.

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