Operators' intentions read by 
EURO and GBP rised during Japanese session and slowly making the swings in the middle level.GBP however has made more drop and cut the low when compared to EURO and that could create more uncertanity whether there could be rise or further drop in them.When we analyse all the majors and commodity pairs - USD/YEN dropped from the rised level along with EURO. USD/CHF has not under gone much moves as the net change from Friday close is very nominal.AUD has gained but dropped from the high to low level.But silently USD/CAD has corrected more than 170 pips from Friday close.This is the pair rised as the last pair to catch up USD gaining move and is expected to be the first pair to lead the reverse and AUD is expected to catch up later and then other majors.The yen crosses and European crosses have also gained during mid European session and losing now.This could be viewed as a “correction” in the downward channel in all the pairs.Every analysts is giving the calls that the bearish out look still persists.But when all turn bearish and willing to sell only during rise,who could rise the market and if they rise why they are rising.?Technically the ‘corrections’ are part of market moves,but why should some traders buy at higher levels that too in a new week? - is it covering their shorts taken on Friday?When EURO and GBP were available at lower levels on Friday they could have covered with better profit,why they then waited? IS it their greed and they book now less profits in their shorts? who are selling to them then?- probabaly those bought during drop on Friday could sell to them or it might be fresh selling from some speculative short sellers.
If we watch other markets- stocks markets have started the recovery- could be a ‘ correction’ again before further fall.Gold and crdue oil have also recovered some - again some ‘ correction’.Then all are willing to sell and not wish to catch the hanging or falling knife.How the market will react to such situation?
But people come to market for trading,investments and speculations.But all have the objective to earn quick money which cannot be otherwise earned by making normal business process.The financial institutions cannot do normal business process and earn for their investments.They can only make investments and trading to earn for their investments.If they need to earn for their huge investments and trading,some should lose as the market is almost ‘zero sum game’.Who are the losers and why they should lose - no one is coming to the market to lose their money.So what is happening in the market as many surveys show that predominant of the traders lose money in the market.also now the standing examples are the big financial institutions have also lost money recently.Then who are the gainers?Those who created the sentiments for 2 years about US economy and and pushed up EURO and GBP to almost consistantly to multi year highs?.Then why they dropped so suddenly? What was their intentions? what is the truth now similar and opposite sentiment is bing created now.?The technical analysts gaving the calls that EURO and GBP could reach further highs about 4 months back are giving the derived calls from analysis that EURO and GBP could further fall.I am not blaming any one.I absorb all the blame for my tangent comments,But it is better to read the intentions of such sentiments created from time to time,why such change in sentiments happen often?.I think I am not able to understand world economic conditions well, because I read too much into it.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
Dear Doc
You asked “Then who are the gainers?”
If I am a long term stock investor, and had invested at levels lower than current levels, and I had accumulated dividends, bonus shares, stock splits, etc., thereby lowering your cost per unit of stock held, I would presume I am a gainer. And, if my cost per unit was more than current levels, ten I would be a loser. However, loss or gain would be realised only when the stock is sold. Therefore, I conclude that if trillions of dollars have been wiped off the market capitalisation all over the world, this would be either in the form of either realised or unrealised loss. It would be fruitless to try to trace these funds.
Similarly, Bill Gates owns a huge chunk of Microsoft stock, and is one of the wealthiest people in the world. If Microsoft price crashes, his wealth goes down, will you try to find out where his wealth disappeared? Or if Microsoft price goes up, and his wealth increases, will you conclude Bill Gates made all the money?
You also asked “But when all turn bearish and willing to sell only during rise,who could rise the market and if they rise why they are rising?”
I would presume it would be huge funds who want to create a bullish feel in the market, and induce small investors to buy, or they make “circular” trades. Then they will take that opportunity to sell again. From the moves of past few weeks, I find that all pullback or corrections have been met with selling pressure by investors, fund managers, etc. who are taking every opportunity to get out of the market.
regards
Dear Su25
In stock and forex market there is also delivery based trading where we pay 100% of the cost and depending upon the market moves the apparent profit or loss may be seen.At the time of liquidation the actual profit or loss is determined.The currencies can be converted to any other currencies at that time like USD to Euro and to YEN and back to USD.But in leveraged trade the position taken in the market has to be closed like the derivative trades.Then the players make the market appear bullish and build huge short positions and drop the market and buy by not giving any support and to sell continueously lesser quantity to induce drop.Then the panic drop comes when those taken long positions come for distress selling when they find the market is not rising.The players buy at that time against their higher level sells and further sell and drop the market.Then the panic unsupported drops happen.That becomes surprise for traders.Technical indicators will point out that all long term supports are broken and the market is to fall further to greater depths.Traders who have been doing buy and sell trades earlier, start doing sell and buy trades,similar to buy and sell trades they have done on the higher side.At this time when traders sell near low the players drop and buy against their sells.This may appear sell and buy trades are easy way to make money at current situation- similar to buy and sell trades were profitable at higher levels 4-5 months back.Eveey time the players make the market either to follow the technicals or fundaments and then only trap the traders unassumingly.In all martkets they do similar trap moves.The reason or excuse may differ every time.So the profit in liverage trade is huge when compared with delivery based trading or currency conversion trades.Notional loss or profit is more applicable to position trades.
You have mentioned the example of Bill Gate and Microsoft shares.Actually the promotors also aggressively participate in market making and during rise they off load most of their holdings and buy back during distress drop before the book closure time to show their holding is stable.But they make huge money.You will know that when Forbes announces this year richest.
Regarding the rise we have seen as pull backs - my question was when there is credit crisis and every one is willing to sit on USD and not to lend because of lack of trust,why the rise in EURO and GBP are seen- are they not aware that when they rise more selling will happen in the market.Actually they gain levels by quick circular trades and off load their buys to drop again and then buy at lower levels.This way the cost of their holding will come down below the market level due to more range bound profit making trades.So that even when there is unexpected natural event to influence the market,they can easily exit with their positions.If such surprise happens before hand then they do double up moves - buy double the quantity of their sell and book profit after the rise.We have seen such moves during 11/9 time.
They have full control over the market and not the big funds or the investing traders.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
Dear Doc
If any of the “promotors” do such trades, I am sure SEC will become aware of these transactions, and view this as “insider trading”. And, people of the calibre of Bill Gates may put their reputation above this kind of trading, or so I think? If they were to resort to such deals, they would probably do it in a more sophisticated manner, such as hedge funds?
However, I have to agree with you and many other readers who have acknowledged the existence of “operators”. As I find it difficult to understand operators due to lack of experience, I would rather subscribe to a “conspiracy” theory. For eg, a news article reported that a very large currency hedge fund is buying many asian currencies, as they are at their lows. This has had not much effect on the rates. And, when I talk to dealers they say that volumes are so thin that any small transaction can move the market significantly, therefore, under watchful eyes of CBs. Also, hedge funds are finding it difficult to convert local units to USD. I, therefore, say that this is a conspiracy to entice locals to sell USD, to enable these hedge funds to buy USD. Is this a long stretch of imagination? One will never know as the conspirators will never reveal.
regards
su25
Dear Su25
The promotors do make such trades with the holdings in their associate names world over.Only specific deal rooms know about it.Since the orders are passed to various counters,dealers and banks no normal dealers will know about the inside info and dealings.Even if they know they normally donot divulge to others.They only inform the clients what is visible and not the hidden agenda of the players.Your dealer has informed you that the market has thin volume and hence the price action is big.Then why the exchanges are not revealing the volume from time to time.besides where is the need for them to buy at higher price when traders are willing to sell at lower levels because of bearish sentiments.?
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman