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Operators' intentions read by Dr. S. Sivaraman, of i-knowindices.com

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BOE & ECB interest rate decisions - expected market moves before and after…

Posted on December 4, 2008 at 6:17 in Market comment, Market forecast, Operators' intentions by Dr. S. Sivaraman

Today (Dec 04) is considered important as the interest rate decisions are to be announced by BOE by 12:00 GMT and ECB by 12:45 GMT,followed by ECB press conference by 13:30 GMT ( the hawkish or dovish statement time) .

Yesterday as expected during US session the slow rise was seen  till close.Today the  slide is seen  during Japanese session as expected.

The expected moves during the trigger time are as follows:

Dip in Euro and GBP towards close of Japanese session followed by small swings during gap time before start of European session,then sudden rise in them creating more chance for speculation by start of European session.Further firming up during mid session and handling of the crosses by making contrarian moves ( EURO and GBP rise along with rise  USD/YEN).

From 12:00 -14:00 GMT during late European session higher level swings ( a dip followed by cutting the high and then a dip followed by cutting the high  during each announcement time),then further rise after press conference till close of European session,followed by quick swings during gap time before  and during US session are the expected moves.

Players know well the traders are going to enter into the market after the events or announcements based on the fundamentals and technical studies.But they are expected to make more volatile moves after the traders commit the positions.If the traders wait for NFP data release then the players also could make wide range swings today and make trap moves for week end once the traders commit the positions in the market.

These are the the derived market moves from my algorithm and may vary in actual market condition.Please watch the market and undertstand their moves and decide to take positions during quick moves or false moves time.

I will give more updates during the events my market readings.

Regards

Dr.Sivaraman

4 Responses to “BOE & ECB interest rate decisions - expected market moves before and after…”

  1. on 04 Dec 2008 at 11:09 am1Jason

    Hi Dr

    Sorry to say this. But so far what you have indicated has not happened.

    GBP is going lower and what is your take on this ?
    Do you still think the majors are going higher in the year end ?

    cheers
    jason

  2. on 04 Dec 2008 at 12:05 pm2Ben

    Dear Dr.

    What do you think about GBP-JPY ? Do you think we’re finally near the bottom after a drop of more than 12000 pips in less than a year ?

    Thank you

  3. on 04 Dec 2008 at 4:49 pm3Dr. S. Sivaraman

    Dear Jason
    Yes I agree they did not make the rise after interest rate decision times but delayed and rised after when the traders commit positions.The drop they would have done to induce long liquidation and inducing short sellings before the rise.They are known for their cunning moves.I am trying to read them as much as possible and presenting here.They can go wrong as they are only expectations.
    Regards
    Dr.Sivaraman

  4. on 04 Dec 2008 at 4:51 pm4Dr. S. Sivaraman

    Dear Ben
    if longs are liquidated in full and shorts are build up nicely then the bottom is seen according to the players.
    Regards
    Dr.Sivaraman

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