17 Responses to “process of sequential trend reversal”

1. on 03 Mar 2009 at 1:28 pm1vinesh

   Doc, what might be the affect of rate change on EU seems like eastern euro countries are having big issues and rate change might bring down the value of EUR

2. on 03 Mar 2009 at 2:58 pm2Ben

   Dear Dr.

   It looks like the “rise” or usd weakeneing was the gap time false move…
   As vinesh said, do you still see Euro rising after ECB cuts interest rates ?
   Also, do you think a multi-year low has definitely been seen for Yen crosses ?

   Thanks

3. on 03 Mar 2009 at 3:01 pm3cris jonothan

   dear sivaraman i appreciate ur way of unfoldinf the game of the market but unfortunately euro for the time being will consolitate under 1.25 against usd risk aversion is here to stay for a bit longer. i hope ur right that risk appetite will resume but panic is controling the market, so dont bet on a recovery for both gbp and eur this time soon. thank you cris jonothan: hsb senior currency stategist

4. on 03 Mar 2009 at 3:29 pm4Dr. S. Sivaraman

   Dear Vinesh
   there is a possibility that rate change can affect euro fundamentally,but when the risk appetite comes in the sentiment could change.
   Regards
   Dr.Sivaraman

5. on 03 Mar 2009 at 3:33 pm5Dr. S. Sivaraman

   dear ben
   After rising YEn crosses and commodity pairs they are now actying on majors - they are first rising usd/yen ,later euro and gbp will also rise as contrarian move.yen and yen crosses have come above the multi year lows - they will not revisit.multi year lows or highs happen only once during multi years.!
   Regards
   Dr.Sivaraman

6. on 03 Mar 2009 at 3:35 pm6vinesh

   So doc if we are not going to see the lows again is 100 the max yen can go this year? Should we see a fall to lower 90’s before the next rise?

7. on 03 Mar 2009 at 3:37 pm7Dr. S. Sivaraman

   Dear cris jonothan -hsb senior currency stategist:

   Thanks for your advice.My forecast algorithm expects a very big rise in this month in EURO and GBP.Let me wait and see which one is right and I will recollect your suggesions by end of this month as a review.Please remind me for the same.
   Regards
   Dr.Sivaraman

8. on 03 Mar 2009 at 5:12 pm8Dr. S. Sivaraman

   Dear vinesh
   if you remember my webinar on forex markewt forecast for the year 2009,I made a mention that usd/yen will also rise along with euro and gbp.The low of 87 is over.we will see sopon above 100+
   Regards
   Dr.Sivaraman

9. on 03 Mar 2009 at 6:45 pm9Ben

   Dear Dr.

   Since you’re talking about your “2009 forecast webinar”, i rememeber you showed us a “prediction” chart there (i took a screenshot as you suggested), where EUR-USD was above 1,40 level from end of february, and never went below that level during the rest of the year.

   How did you make that “prediction” chart? Would you change the price levels from march to december now if you did it again ? Im looking at it right now, and price should be at 1,48 in end march, which i sincerely don’t see hapenning (although i expect some considerable rise too).

   Thanks

10. on 03 Mar 2009 at 7:50 pm10Barry

    Dear Dr.
    We all know there is no endless drop in the market. There will be upward move sooner or later as you expect. So you are right in that case after a huge drop has already made. Whether or not your month end prediction will be correct, it is not suitable to call a recovery and get an opposite result everyday as your blog is intended for daily traders. It may not be appropriate for daily traders to buy for a unconfirmed rise before we can even see a bottom on the chart. I know you are not caring about the chart yourself but serious traders should know there are less dramatic direction changes in the market. Even there will be, you can always enter the market later on. What is the chance to pick the top or bottom all the time.

    Longing euro or aud or whatever as a tiny part of a mediate or long term strategy is OK but definitely not the only method for daily trading.

11. on 04 Mar 2009 at 7:51 am11su25

    Doc
    Not sure whether you have expressed earlier that multi-year lows have been seen in eur/usd too. If yes, then for eur/usd the low is around 1.2325.
    However, I am sure you have said that eur/usd will rise by 1300-1900 pips.
    If I translate this into a trade setup, it would look like this - long eur/usd @ 1.2525 s/l 1.2275 t/p 1.3775 which would mean a stop of 250 pips for a profit of 1250 pips, which is a very good risk/reard ratio of 1:5!
    I have given a stop 50 pips below the multi year low, which is not necessary; if the multi-year low is traded then the trade should be stopped as your basic assumption of multi year low is violated, thereby your prediction is no longer valid.

    Now, my question to you Doc is, if your reader has enougth balance in his trading account to take a loss of 250 pips, would you recommend the reader to enter this trade??? If yes, when would you move s/l to entry and trail your stops?

12. on 04 Mar 2009 at 8:11 am12su25

    Dear Readers,

    Please read the disclaimer before you trade based on the contents of this blog.
    What you can expect if the predictions do not come true is a public apology and a human error!
    And, if the predictions do come true, then you can expect to enrich yourself!

    On Aug 19 ‘08 Doc asked me to inform readers when eur/usd hits 1.56+ and gbp/usd 1.99+ by end-Sep ‘08- market has not given an opportunity to inform readers! (http://blogs.fxstreet.com/marketreadings/2008/08/18/euro-gbp-are-expected-to-firm-up-more/#comment-2209)

    Six months later, he is making similar bold claims. This time around I hope he is correct.

    I am aware of a saying “history repeats itslef”! However, I would not be pleased if history does repeat with criticism flooding this blog!

13. on 04 Mar 2009 at 8:45 am13sam

    Hi, I notice lots of comments on accuracy. I just wanted to say that there is no one out there who is 100 percent accurate. I pay for a signal service and even they are not always right. Blogs are simply opinions of the blogger. Maybe what the doctor is just trying to say is that one should not get too caught up in market sentiment as it can turn quickly against you. I think that’s good advice.

14. on 04 Mar 2009 at 9:22 am14Barry

    I was giving negative views here but I haven’t asking for a compensation or offering a reward win or lose in a trade. I am trading on my own way even I follow over tens of blogs each day. Trading is a lonely thing to do, commenting in forums and blogs just bring some fun!
    As blogs are simply opinions of the blogers, Comments are simply words from readers.
    Should they always be the same?

    You are free to give your opinion based on the bloger’s opinion, but do no try to fight the others!

15. on 04 Mar 2009 at 9:32 am15Dr. S. Sivaraman

    Dear Ben
    the weighted moving average levels were calculated and used for plotting the predicted chart.As you have mentioned the rise was not significant.It has gone wrong.
    regards
    Dr.Sivaraman

16. on 04 Mar 2009 at 9:33 am16Dr. S. Sivaraman

    Dear Barry
    Thanks for the suggestions
    Regards
    dr.Sivaraman

17. on 04 Mar 2009 at 9:37 am17Dr. S. Sivaraman

    dear su25
    I never advise a stop of 250 pips.I am not the one to talk about risk reward as well.because we use limited equity and can only use hedging order for 30 pips to limit the risk and trade based on the trend of the market.I give equal importance to trading strategy as the forecast may fail when we are in trade.The risk should be minimal and the reward should be maximized.Envisaging the reward one cannot take undue risk.
    Regards
    Dr.Sivaraman

Theme by Forex Street Powered by Wordpress