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Operators' intentions read by Dr. S. Sivaraman, of i-knowindices.com

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Month end expected moves

Posted on March 31, 2009 at 5:45 in Market comment, Market forecast, Operators' intentions by Dr. S. Sivaraman

EURO and GBP made the drop yesterday to create the bearish fell.Today they have opened high.They are expected to swing and firm up towards close of japanese session.A quick dip and a rise during European session and an unassuming quick rise during US session are the expected moves for month end.

More upward spikes are expected in new month.Players create bearish feel and buy from the emotional short sellers and test the patience of the long holders,then make the initial rise to induce long holders to book profit and turn short and trap the shot sellers by making very quick rise or spike.

it is better to understand the players intentions and method of market operations to trade at ease.

Regards

Dr.Sivaraman

Tags: EURO, GBP

28 Responses to “Month end expected moves”

on 31 Mar 2009 at 5:57 am1Aravind

Dear Doc

How much do you see as upward potential for EUR in the month of April?

regards
Aravind
on 31 Mar 2009 at 9:20 am2Dr. S. Sivaraman

Dear arvind
normally 1100-1300 pips moves are seen from month beginning to month end.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
on 31 Mar 2009 at 9:44 am3Francesco

Good day Dr. Sivaraman,

how do you see EURGBP and USDJPY moving in the short time?

Do you agree that the positive correlation we have seen in these months between defensive plays as USD and JPY, and weak equities might be close to an end?

Thank you for your comment,
on 31 Mar 2009 at 12:29 pm4Richard

Dear Dr. Sivaranam,

the way back to 1.31 seems open…?

Regards

Richard
on 31 Mar 2009 at 12:54 pm5Barry

Dear Dr,
How is your view and reading about the CB Consumer Confidence. I think that will trigger a great movement.
Regards.
Barry
on 31 Mar 2009 at 1:54 pm6Gary

Dr.,

What do you think the players’ goal with the EURCHF is? It seems they are holding it down even though the SNB wants it to rise.

Thanks
on 31 Mar 2009 at 5:04 pm7sajith

Really shame on you Sivaraman.Without knowing anything about market ,why you are giving forcaste.

saajith
on 31 Mar 2009 at 5:33 pm8Barry

Institutional traders will adjust their positions during month end and thus make the market move without clear trend. Intra-day traders should avoid this if they can not bear the volatility. I put a question there just to notify a risk event. I do think euro will go higher this month or at least 1.36 will be retest soon.
on 31 Mar 2009 at 5:47 pm9Dr. S. Sivaraman

Dear Francesco
EURO/GBp is expected to swing and slide and USD/YEN is expected to swing and rise as per my estimate.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
on 31 Mar 2009 at 5:47 pm10cris jonothan

i have aquestion to all of you? on thursday ECB will lower their interest rates to 1, they will have to join QE, how can you predict euro will go up? also think about oil, if euro goes up oil goes up aswell, and i dont think under such a crisis oil should be above 50$. i think euro will go under 1.20 in near future.I beileve that the highest level that euro will achive for 2009 is 1.37 that we saw a week ago.
on 31 Mar 2009 at 5:48 pm11Dr. S. Sivaraman

Dear Richard
I am expecting more rise in EURO in this week.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
on 31 Mar 2009 at 5:49 pm12Dr. S. Sivaraman

Dear Barry

The triggers may vary,but actual positions of the traders play a major role in market moves.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
on 31 Mar 2009 at 5:50 pm13Dr. S. Sivaraman

Dear Gary
EURO/CHF is expected to swing and rise for some time.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
on 31 Mar 2009 at 5:51 pm14Dr. S. Sivaraman

Dear sajith
I request you to specify your comments.I think you are emotional and wanting to blame some one for your trading decision.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
on 31 Mar 2009 at 5:53 pm15Dr. S. Sivaraman

Dear cris jonothan
thanks for your views.Time will explain what is there in the store.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
on 31 Mar 2009 at 5:57 pm16ejthekkan

Dear Doc.,
Your guidelines are very much useful for the wise traders with good patience. Ignore the comments of frustation and do keep giving your views. Time will prove that you are correct.
on 31 Mar 2009 at 5:58 pm17cris jonothan

mr Sivaraman maybe am wrong but thats just my thought, if you can share your thoughts aswell i will be pleased, u was right 2 weeks ago for the strenght of euro but i bet u didnt know about QE of usa, and that helped ur prediction a lot, so please explain to me ur thoughts, and also if euro gets stronger , what will happen to the price of oil. thank you
on 31 Mar 2009 at 6:09 pm18cris jonothan

thank you for ur replay but u still dint explaine me how you get ur thoughts about the strenghth of euro.
on 31 Mar 2009 at 6:10 pm19saud

keep dreaming Doc.
on 31 Mar 2009 at 6:37 pm20Barry

Dear cris,
As your question is for all. I will try to give my view here:
Who told you that ECB will definitely cut rate by 50? It is also just prediction by people who don’t actually trade the market just like forex analyst employed by the brokers. Even they will cut it by 50, the result may have been priced in the current level and the the event will be used just as a trigger to wash the market. I myself even think that they may just cut 25 to give us a surprise. Actually, the rate is not so important anymore. QE is the only risk we have to face for a strong or weak euro. If ECB clearly decided to follow FED, then the euro will be dumped heavily and we have to follow that. There is still no sign of that yet.
I do not want to argue about oil price as it may take thousands of lines for me to explain. But let’s keep in mind that stock can even go up higher and higher nowadays, why not the euro and oil? Those famous investment banks were calling oil price reaching 200 r and gold price 1500 early last year. How was the price after that? Some notable banks have already disappeared in the world.
I am not saying that this is long-term trend reverse. USD is still dominating the market for the time being. It doesn’t prevent me from buying euro even it will go under 1.20 someday. I am just a small retailer trader and I have to focus on my time frame and real position instead of projecting like an analyst or even an economist.
Wish u all the best.
Regards.
Barry
on 31 Mar 2009 at 9:08 pm21Safwat

Dear Dr.,

I have to agree with your forecast for Cable. If one looks at the monthly RSI, we are at an extremely oversold condition and a snap is imminent.

Regards.
on 31 Mar 2009 at 9:24 pm22Gary

Dr.,

Thanks for your insight. I don’t understand all of the haters on here. If you don’t like it, DON’T READ IT!

And there’s no guarantee that ECB goes down the QE path. The market already priced in the 50 point cut, and if they don’t go with QE, the EURUSD will probably rise big.
on 01 Apr 2009 at 12:58 am23Aravind

Hi

I agree with Gary. As traders, we all have to remember that the consequences of our trades, good ord bad, are solely ours to bear. We cannot shift the blame on someone else if our trade is wrong

rgds
Aravind
on 01 Apr 2009 at 8:46 am24Dr. S. Sivaraman

Dear ejthekkan
I am posting my blog with the expectations that it may trigger the thinking of the traders rather than blindly following others’ calls.Developing one own trading insight is very important than becoming addict to trading.
Regards
dr.Sivaraman
on 01 Apr 2009 at 8:48 am25Dr. S. Sivaraman

Dear cris jonothan
I donot want to highlight any attribute which is used as trigger for market moves.there is no perfect coorelation between the attribute and the market moves,as the interpretations of the attributes are also used for market moves.
Because traders like to know whether EURO or GBP expected to go up or down to take trading decisions.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
on 01 Apr 2009 at 8:50 am26Dr. S. Sivaraman

Dear saud
Envisaging is different from dream.if one becomes fatigue of market moves such comments are expressed.Your comment is not new to me.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
on 01 Apr 2009 at 8:51 am27Dr. S. Sivaraman

Dear Safwat

there can be different ways of derivations for the expected market moves.Thanks for your views.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
on 01 Apr 2009 at 8:53 am28Dr. S. Sivaraman

Dear Gary
At times this place becomes an out let for some to express their anger against the market.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman

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