19 Responses to “ECB rate decision-expected moves”

1. on 02 Apr 2009 at 5:39 am1jason

   Hi Dr

   Can I find out what is your view on the usd jpy today ?

   Will it rise past 99.50 to attempt 100 ?

   Appreciate if you can comment on this.

   cheers
   jason

2. on 02 Apr 2009 at 5:44 am2Gregor

   Dear Dr.,
   can you write some words about AUD. It seems it’s the strongest currency last few weeks…

   Regards,
   G.

3. on 02 Apr 2009 at 7:33 am3cris jonothan

   Goodmorning mr sivaraman, i would like to ask you what will happen if today Ecb annaounce QE to the euro area, do u still see euro to spike up?

4. on 02 Apr 2009 at 7:37 am4cris jonothan

   The ECB is expected to cut its benchmark rate by 50 bps to 1.00% which would be the lowest since the single currency was formed. The central bank has been reluctant to bring their rates for fear they will corner themselves if the regions economy contracts further. However, with inflation expectations falling to 0.6%, the threat of deflation remains despite committee members continuously dismissing its possibility. There have been calls for more aggressive action from policy makers similar to the quantitative easing measures of the U.S. and U.K. Although we probably won’t see the central bank enter markets and buy government debt, expect them to extend the maturity of refinancing operations which they may announce at the post decision press conference. Therefore, traders will want to pay attention to President Trichet’s remarks which are typically more market moving then the actual release. A rate reduction in of itself should be a weighing factor for the Euro and any additionally measures announced could accelerate its decline. This would validate the bearish euro technical outlook and justify a short EUR/USD trade.

5. on 02 Apr 2009 at 8:21 am5Dr. S. Sivaraman

   Dear jason
   USD/YEN is expected to swing and rise above high set for today.
   Regards
   Dr.Sivaraman

6. on 02 Apr 2009 at 8:22 am6Dr. S. Sivaraman

   Dear Gregor

   AUD is also expected to rise.it will initiate the rise and then lag behind in the rise with more sideways moves.
   Regards
   Dr.Sivaraman

7. on 02 Apr 2009 at 8:26 am7Dr. S. Sivaraman

   Dear cris jonothan
   My algorithm says that EURO and GBP are expected to rise.may be accordingly the announcements might be made or the interpretations might come in after announcement.I donot want to comment on the relationship of market moves with the fundamentals as the market is known to follow the fundamentals and technicals alternatively.In a given time which is going to be followed and which one is going to be discounted we will not know.hence the market is continued to be surprise all the time.That can alone make the players make money when the traders lose emotionally.
   Regards
   Dr.Sivaraman
   Regards
   Dr.Sivaraman

8. on 02 Apr 2009 at 9:00 am8Barry

   Dear Dr,
   Thanks for the view.
   I am ready for a ride.
   Regards.
   Barry

9. on 02 Apr 2009 at 10:41 am9RK

   Dear Dr

   Is there going to be retracement on cable before further
   rise

10. on 02 Apr 2009 at 10:47 am10cris jonothan

    thank you your prediction are on the right track

11. on 02 Apr 2009 at 10:48 am11Dr. S. Sivaraman

    dear RK
    There will be very volatile move during ECB rate announcement and press conference time- you can wait to buy during quick drop- but sell and buy trade they may try to hit stops or may not fill the exit.
    Regards
    Dr.Sivaraman

12. on 02 Apr 2009 at 11:58 am12Barry

    What is the result of ECB rate cut?
    25! Just like what I suspect the day before.
    We traders should not be fooled by the media.

13. on 02 Apr 2009 at 12:13 pm13Nazali

    Hi Dr

    Eur and gbp are rising, we did not see a fall - do you expect a fall or steady rise?

14. on 02 Apr 2009 at 12:16 pm14Dr. S. Sivaraman

    Dear Nazalidrop we have seen before data release - now more rise is expected.
    Regards
    Dr.Sivaraman

15. on 02 Apr 2009 at 12:37 pm15saud

    till what levels do you expect it to rise?

16. on 02 Apr 2009 at 1:01 pm16Dr. S. Sivaraman

    Dear Saud
    During US session they are expected to rise above high briefly and wait for tomorrow.
    Regards
    Dr.Sivaraman

17. on 02 Apr 2009 at 1:02 pm17Nazali

    Thank you for your reply.

18. on 02 Apr 2009 at 1:10 pm18Ahmed

    Dear Dr,
    I am watching your forecasts since last 2 months.I must admit that they are pretty much accurate though timing is not always correct.
    In my view if these forecaists are used(by us, the traders) in combination with other indicaters like MAs etc then these are very helpful at that very moment.
    Regards
    Ahmed

19. on 03 Apr 2009 at 4:03 am19jason

    Hi Dr Siva

    Can I find out your views on the eur and gbp today ?

    The gbp has risen so much already. Is it likely to rise past 1.48 towards 1.50 today ?

    cheers
    jason

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