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Operators' intentions read by Dr. S. Sivaraman, of i-knowindices.com

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NFP data release and expected week end moves

Posted on April 3, 2009 at 4:29 in Market comment, Market forecast, Operators' intentions by Dr. S. Sivaraman

EURO and GBP made the expected rise yesterday.

They are expected to make firming up moves with swings during Japanese session and swing and slide during early European session - a good buy time,from mid European session they are expected to firm up.After brief swings during NFP data release time they are expected to firm up towards close of European session.Then a gap time dip before start of US session and a quick rise during US session are the expected market moves for week end.

Now traders might get the feel to compare markets to get the clues for the moves.But the players are expected to exit their positions in commodity markets and invest in stock and currency markets.More rise is expected in stocks and currency markets in the days to come.

it is better to trade along with the players and that may appear that we are trading against the trend.but the players quickly rise and book profits in their buy positions and drop the market to buy again and later rise more to trap the short sellers.they trap either way the traders and earn.the data release is used as a trigger time for the market and they need not use the same explanation for the data every time.They give different interpretations and bring in suroprises every time.the surprise can trigger emotions of the traders.So avoid becoming emotional during trading.

Regards

Dr.Sivaraman

Tags: EURO, GBP, NFP

25 Responses to “NFP data release and expected week end moves”

on 03 Apr 2009 at 7:35 am1jason

Hi Dr

Thank you for your comments.

Your view is the gbp and eur to continue to rise and to buy on dips.

Do you see them breaking past yesterday’s highs ?

Appreciate if you can comment.

Thanks

cheers
jason
on 03 Apr 2009 at 9:07 am2Dr. S. Sivaraman

dear jason
for week end EURO and GBP are expected to go above the recent highs and form new highs for the season.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
on 03 Apr 2009 at 9:30 am3su25

Dear Doc
When you say new highs for the season, are you implying that today’s high will be the high for the season - and will not be cut during this season?
Regards
su25
on 03 Apr 2009 at 9:37 am4Dr. S. Sivaraman

Dear su25
new high for the season refers to new higher levels in 3 months time frame.Once the high is breached we know well the market aim to rise further high forgetting ‘risk aversion’talks.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
on 03 Apr 2009 at 9:38 am5Francesco

Dear Mr. Sivaraman,

can you give us more comments about the importance of gap times in the forex market?

Also, I am on a loss on USDJPY (short), and AUSUSD (short).
Price is still not far from my entry points but I am afraid my losses could grow in the coming days.
Can you provide me a suggestion on those pairs?
on 03 Apr 2009 at 10:42 am6Dr. S. Sivaraman

Dear Francesco
I request you to attend a webinar I present - tracking the forex market together part I & II - I will be giving one on 09 Apr you can register for the same and listen to my explanations about the gap times and the gap time trades.
it is bettwe to close the shorts when they slide before NFP data release as I expected rise after that.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
on 03 Apr 2009 at 11:10 am7j.j

Dear Dr. sivaraman , pls would you elaborate further about forming new higher level in 3 months time frame ?
Best Regards
on 03 Apr 2009 at 11:29 am8Dr. S. Sivaraman

Dear j.j
I have mentioned earlier there is scope for EURO and GBP to rise about 1100-1600 pips rise from the low seen during this month beginning.
Regards
Dr.sivaraman
on 03 Apr 2009 at 12:18 pm9jason

Hi Dr

You mentioned that the eur and gbp has the scope to rise 1000 - 1600 pips from the lows at the begining of this month (apr 09).

So do you mean that the eur and the gbp can reach 1.4 and 1.6 respectively ?

cheers
jason
on 03 Apr 2009 at 12:58 pm10Fernando Vargas

Hy Dr.

It looks that GAP TIMES was 30 minutes before today for NFP announcement, IT could be posible?
on 03 Apr 2009 at 1:32 pm11Dr. S. Sivaraman

dear Fernando Vargas
During gap time and before the data release they make false moves.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
on 03 Apr 2009 at 1:33 pm12Dr. S. Sivaraman

Dear jason
they are the expectations or scope.we need to watch the real.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
on 03 Apr 2009 at 1:40 pm13jason

Hi Dr Siva

Thank you for all your comments and postings.
Appreciate them.

One more question though. You mentioned that there will be a quick dip during the us session and a quick rise for the rest of the session for the weekend.

The eur has dropped below 1.34 and is now back above 1.34 again.
In your opinion, do you think the quick drop is over and we shall see a rise for the eur from here now ?

Appreciate if you can share your opinion.

Thanks
jason
on 03 Apr 2009 at 1:46 pm14Dr. S. Sivaraman

dear jason
it appears the players are holding EURO and rising GBP to drop euro/gbp.Then they will rise both slowly using some excuses as trigger .
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
on 03 Apr 2009 at 1:48 pm15vinesh

Doc seems like expected rise on euro is not happening
on 03 Apr 2009 at 1:56 pm16jason

Hi Dr

Thank you for your reply again.

I hope you are right. The eur seems to be looking quite weak but hopefully it will rise soon from here for this session.

However, it always seem to be difficulty clearing 1.35.

Do you think eur can clear this level today?

cheers
jason
on 03 Apr 2009 at 2:06 pm17Dr. S. Sivaraman

dear Vinesh and jason
Your questions indicate the long holders are losing patience.Players want the long holders to book profit out of fear before the rise with least resistance.market rewards patient traders.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
on 03 Apr 2009 at 2:38 pm18ejthekkan

Dear Dr.
your forecasts are on its way. GBP already up. Hope euro to follow the rise.
Do you expect further rise today as the US Stocks are falling?
on 03 Apr 2009 at 2:50 pm19jason

HI Dr

You mentioned about being patient.

Have been waiting patiently but eur did not rise.
The rise in the eur just now is only 30 - 40 pips and it is now coming back down.

Do you think it can still rise higher today or is the action over already ?

cheers
jason
on 03 Apr 2009 at 2:58 pm20Dr. S. Sivaraman

dear ejthekkan & jason
they could use some speech as trigger by 16;00 GMt and then slowly rise up to high and then induce short covering by making quick rise.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
on 03 Apr 2009 at 3:54 pm21ejthekkan

Thanks Dr. it seems your prections are about to happen. EURO may cross 1.37, is it possible today?
on 03 Apr 2009 at 8:23 pm22saud

lol, it’s now 3 weeks that you keep saying it will rise today, lol
on 03 Apr 2009 at 8:38 pm23Gregor

Hm, they’re rising, are they, Soud?

G.
on 04 Apr 2009 at 12:01 pm24Gregor

Dear Dr.,

I think the charts are showing AUD rise is coming to an end and some pullback is expected, especially against GBP (and EUR).
At least in the very short term.

I’d like to know your opinion about that.
Thanks.

Regards,
Gregor
on 05 Apr 2009 at 8:55 pm25Barry

It is so clear that euro will go to 1.3795 and then probably backtest 1.3460-80 again. If hold, it will go a lot higher.
Otherwise, it will eventually go down. If we focus on a single tree without seeing the forest, we will never benefit from the trade whether it will go up or go down. Better to develop a strategy and jump into the market and learn from there.

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