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Operators' intentions read by Dr. S. Sivaraman, of i-knowindices.com

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Expected moves in EURO and GBP for NFP data release time

Posted on May 8, 2009 at 5:55 in Market comment, Market forecast, Operators' intentions by Dr. S. Sivaraman

As expected EURO and GBP made the wide range swings yesterday.GBP made the upward spike before the BOE rate announcement  as false move and then dropped after the release.EURO made the spike after ECB press meet and then made the slide.This happened to make up and down spikes in EURO/GBP.

Today EURO and GBP are expected to make the firming up move before the NFP data and then make the downward spike after release and later recover from US session for week end.

Quick drops are buy opportunities and quick rises are exit opportunities in them.

Regards

Dr.Sivaraman

33 Responses to “Expected moves in EURO and GBP for NFP data release time”

  1. on 08 May 2009 at 6:12 am1Eugene Tan

    Dear Dr,

    What is the 2-4 week forecast for eur and gbp?

    I read many banks’ forecasts and they do expect eur to go to 1.40+ and GBP to go above 1.65+ in 3-6 months.

    Would like your respected views on the 2-4 week timeframe.

    BTW, do you teach your methodology in greater details? and where do u do it?

    Deepest Respects
    Eugene

  2. on 08 May 2009 at 6:47 am2ejthekkan

    Dear Dr.
    Do you expect Euro and GBP to break above yesterdays’ highs before NFP?
    thanks and regards

  3. on 08 May 2009 at 6:48 am3emil

    Dear Dr,
    Do you see rise in UJ also during US session?
    Best, E

  4. on 08 May 2009 at 7:23 am4Barry

    Dear Dr,
    Your prediction about yesterday’s move is good even euro and gbp moved in opposite direction. You said that euro would make stop hurt below1.32 to rise again this week which is against the TA analysis to reach high again. You are expecting gbp to go above new high today and I would say that it is also most unlikely. You expected the player to drop euro and rise gbp in JP session which was not happened. thus I am really cautious about the gbp’s upward move and euro/gbp’s direction as well.
    Regards.
    Barry

  5. on 08 May 2009 at 9:46 am5vinesh

    Doc do you see cutting the march highs of 1.37 in the coming weeks?

  6. on 08 May 2009 at 9:49 am6Francesco

    Good day Mr. Sivaraman,

    do you see CAD also moving towards new relative highs?
    It seems weaker than other equity related currencies in this week

  7. on 08 May 2009 at 10:41 am7Dr. S. Sivaraman

    daer Eugene Tan
    EURO and GBP are expected to rise about 1000 -1600 pips in thr specified time frame.
    I tech how to read the intentions of the players from their market moves and strategic trading techniques to handle positions in any market condition and comeout with net profit.it is online training given to the subscribed members.You can get more details from my webisite-www.i-knowindices.com
    Regards
    Dr.Sivaraman

  8. on 08 May 2009 at 10:42 am8Dr. S. Sivaraman

    dear ejthekkan
    I am expecting a drop below low by 100+ pips and rise above highby 100+ pips in them.
    Regards
    Dr.Sivaraman

  9. on 08 May 2009 at 10:43 am9Dr. S. Sivaraman

    Dear emil
    yes as part of contrarian move.
    Regards
    Dr.Sivaraman

  10. on 08 May 2009 at 10:44 am10Dr. S. Sivaraman

    Dear Barry
    Most of the time the market expresses the unexpected moves.So we will review once the ebent happens.
    Regards
    Dr.Sivaraman

  11. on 08 May 2009 at 10:50 am11Dr. S. Sivaraman

    Dear vinesh
    I am expecting

    Regards
    Dr.Sivaraman

  12. on 08 May 2009 at 10:51 am12Dr. S. Sivaraman

    dear Francesco
    USD/CAD is also expected to rise like USD/YEN or USD/CHF.
    Regards
    Dr.Sivaraman

  13. on 08 May 2009 at 10:53 am13emil

    Dr,
    When you say 100 pips above or below. Is that referring to weekly levels or yesterdays levels?

  14. on 08 May 2009 at 11:00 am14Barry

    Dear Dr,
    Thanks for your opinion.
    Euro daily range is over 200 pips yesterday and you are expecting to cut low 100pips then above high 100pips. You are telling that today’s range will be over 400pips. OMG!
    Regards.
    Barry

  15. on 08 May 2009 at 11:35 am15Dr. S. Sivaraman

    Dear emil
    Todays level.
    Regards
    Dr.Sivaraman

  16. on 08 May 2009 at 12:34 pm16Barry

    nothing big, still go with the trend.

  17. on 08 May 2009 at 12:42 pm17Nazali

    Hi Dr

    do you still expected a move down and then a rise in gbp and eur today? What do you think about the up spike? Many thanks.

  18. on 08 May 2009 at 1:00 pm18Dr. S. Sivaraman

    dear Barry
    the players will act once the traders take positions with bullish feel - a quick drop to hit their lower level stops and then rise.
    Regards
    Dr.Sivaraman

  19. on 08 May 2009 at 1:03 pm19Dr. S. Sivaraman

    dear Nazali

    since the traders wait for the data to be out before taking positions,they make rise to induce traders to buy during rise and then drop to hit their stops.Later when traders short the players rise and say the initial market reaction was correct.
    Regards
    Dr.Sivaraman

  20. on 08 May 2009 at 1:06 pm20Nazali

    hi Dr

    Thanks. Do you still see a drop of 100+ pips below the low of the day happening today and then the rise?

  21. on 08 May 2009 at 1:07 pm21Barry

    Thanks Dr, Actually, Most small traders will be afraid to buy at this levels, instead they are intended to short more or waiting to buy at lower levels. The price will just go higher and higher, maybe 3580-3620 today. Never mind, I am not focusing on the intra-day move.

  22. on 08 May 2009 at 1:16 pm22jason

    Hi Dr

    Like to hear your opinion on the eur chf.

    If you feel that the eur will rise 700 - 1000 pips from here , how much do you think the eur chf will rise from here ?

    Thanks

    jason

  23. on 08 May 2009 at 2:00 pm23Dr. S. Sivaraman

    dear Nazali

    it appears the volume is low and the swings are subdued now.
    Regards
    Dr.sivaraman

  24. on 08 May 2009 at 2:01 pm24Dr. S. Sivaraman

    dear Barry
    yes when traders are not decided to take positions players are also waiting to make moves.
    Regards
    Dr.Sivaraman

  25. on 08 May 2009 at 2:01 pm25Dr. S. Sivaraman

    Dear jason
    Euro/chf is expected to make less drop and more slide moves.
    Regards
    Dr.Sivaraman

  26. on 08 May 2009 at 2:15 pm26Bob

    Dr.,
    Seems we have had low volume all week. Do you know of a reason why and do you have an opinion on when it might return?

    Thanks,

  27. on 08 May 2009 at 2:29 pm27Andreas

    Dear Mr. Sivaraman,

    I think that market is overbought after this week gains, and I opened some longs on the USD.

    Would you agree that USD might recover some ground next week?

    Thank you for you comment

  28. on 08 May 2009 at 2:33 pm28jason

    Hi Dr

    Thank you for your reply.

    However in your reply, you dont think that eur chf will rally from here ?

    Appreciate if you can clarify further.

    Thanks

    jason

  29. on 08 May 2009 at 2:39 pm29Dr. S. Sivaraman

    Dear Bob
    first off all the players also need to book profit in their positions before making further moves.All along there use to be traders entering for quick trades.But the traders who have lost money by douing so have become cautious and also advise their friends to be careful while trading.Also so many analysts advise traders to conserve equity and trade with care.So the players have to look for emotional buyers during rise- in the absence they hold for long time.Traders taking positions are also holding for long time with less exposure and more usable margin situation.In a changing market condition those traders adopting to the conditions survive.Players also continue to change their strategies to earn from traders.it is like rat race.When more liquidity comes in with traders or when also players follow give and take opolicy - an optimality will come in the market in the form of increased volume.
    both are needed for the market to be active.
    Regards
    Dr.Sivaraman

  30. on 08 May 2009 at 3:42 pm30Bob

    Thanks for your response.

  31. on 08 May 2009 at 5:45 pm31Mohi

    Spot on today, Doc. Thanks

  32. on 10 May 2009 at 7:10 am32Seven

    Dr. S,

    You have a good understainding of the way “operators” move the market. Do you study the fundamentals to come up with your reasoning or are you mostly involved with technicals and price action? or a blend of both?

  33. on 11 May 2009 at 1:58 am33gary

    Dear Dr.

    I have sold GBP@ 1.4670 and havent cut the loss yet. what can you suggest in this case?

    Thank you.

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