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Operators' intentions read by Dr. S. Sivaraman, of i-knowindices.com

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Expected moves before and after NFP data and for week end

Posted on June 5, 2009 at 4:26 in Market comment, Market forecast, Operators' intentions by Dr. S. Sivaraman

EURO and GBP made the volatile moves yesterday - more of downside moves than upside moves.

Today they are expected to make varied contrarian moves like EURO rise and GBP hold near low to rise EURO/GBP,USD/YEN rise to rise YEN crosses when EURO and GBP are making contrarian moves during japanese session.

During European session EURO and GBP are expected to make quick drop and rise before NFP data release time and then after very volatile moves, expected to spike up from late European and during US session times.These are expected moves during trend reversal time.

Qucik rises are sell opportunities and quick drops are profit booking opportunities.

I will give more updates when needed or when quick moves are seen in the market.

Regards

Dr.Sivaraman

39 Responses to “Expected moves before and after NFP data and for week end”

on 05 Jun 2009 at 4:51 am1Francesco

Good day Mr.Sivaraman,

do you think that the coming spike might be a good entry point for a short?

1,43-44 and 1,64-65 for EUR and GBP vs USD are still realistic targets or after yesterday’s early downmove will be hard to see again soon?

Thank you!
on 05 Jun 2009 at 5:13 am2Tarun

good morning sir, will the spike up make new highs in eur and gbp against usd ?
on 05 Jun 2009 at 5:29 am3mice

Hi Dor

on the drop during european session coild i risk tonbuy more gbp ? to book my profit at the end of the day ?
on 05 Jun 2009 at 5:42 am4Nazali

Hi Dr

I asked you on Wed for a level to enter short for eur and gbp, as there has been large drops where would you consider a level now. I don’t want to enter short for there to be a huge rise in gbp which I suspect may happen. Also will we see more rise in Cad - will it be slow and steady? Many thanks.
on 05 Jun 2009 at 6:18 am5Barry

Dear Dr,
I think it would be good for you to give clear statement like the one in this post” more of downside moves than upside moves” if you can from your analysis. That would help traders to understand and make appropriate trading decision. Of course, it depends on your algorithm and up to you. You have already done enough to help the others.
Regards.
Barry
on 05 Jun 2009 at 6:44 am6Dr. S. Sivaraman

Dear Francesco
Qucik drops are buy opportunities to exit during quick rise or you can do other way wait for the quick rise to sell when they stop cutting the new high for more than 30 min and cover during quick drop.We could see quick spikes
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
on 05 Jun 2009 at 6:46 am7Gregor

Dear Dr.,

do you expect EUR/GBP to reach 0,90 and then next month fall to 0,85?

Thanks,
G.
on 05 Jun 2009 at 6:50 am8Dr. S. Sivaraman

Dear mice
you can buy during quick drop but keep stop or hedging order to limit the risk and once the position makes 20-30 pips profit keep stop at entry to eleminate the risk.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
on 05 Jun 2009 at 6:52 am9Dr. S. Sivaraman

Dear Nazali
when there is a quick rise in a hurry and once they stop cutting the new high for more than 30 min to 2 hrs during spikes you can sell and keep stop at entry once the position makes profit and trail down during drop.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
on 05 Jun 2009 at 6:52 am10Dr. S. Sivaraman

Dear Barry

thanks for the suggestions.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
on 05 Jun 2009 at 6:58 am11Dr. S. Sivaraman

Dear Gregor

EURO/GBP may rise to 0.8900-0.8950 area and then drop again as last pair to make trend reversal
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
on 05 Jun 2009 at 7:15 am12Gregor

Dear dr.,

is this quick move down in GBP/USD already some kind of a trend reversal (correction) and we can expect more to the upside in the coming 2 months - along with the stocks and oil?

Regards,
on 05 Jun 2009 at 7:22 am13Mohi

Dear Doc,

Are you expecting gbpusd to bounce back to 1.66 high area before the expected reverse sometimes next week? Thanks and regards..
on 05 Jun 2009 at 8:16 am14Dr. S. Sivaraman

Dear Gregor
they have reversed AUD,CAD and YEN.They need to reverse yet EURO,GBP and CHF.
We could see a quick move against the expectations and then reversals in them.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
on 05 Jun 2009 at 8:18 am15Dr. S. Sivaraman

Dear Mohi
Either today or early next week we should see the unexpected spike using some rumor or data as excuse.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
on 05 Jun 2009 at 8:33 am16Martin Minor

Dear Dr,

It’s wonderful job that you teach us how the market moves.
regards,
Minor,
on 05 Jun 2009 at 9:25 am17Francesco

Hi. Dr Sivaraman,

GBP seems not to be willing to cut today’s low at 1,6015 so far.
Do you think it will eventually will or we can expect a rapid spike during US session?

I wonder if this drop might be a buy opportunity to book profit during or after US data.

Thank you!
on 05 Jun 2009 at 9:41 am18Chris

Francesco My thoughts exactly.
on 05 Jun 2009 at 9:50 am19vinesh

doc what is the expected target for eu on the upside?
on 05 Jun 2009 at 9:50 am20Nazali

Hi Dr

Do you consider it a safer trading practice to look for suitable shorts in eur and gbp at this volatile time? Many thanks.
on 05 Jun 2009 at 9:56 am21Gregor

I don’t know really - I have a feeling (nothing technicaly) this (quick and fast) reversal already happened. If we are expecting some “boom” in stocks and commodities, then GBP/USD should go much higher than 1.60. Just a feeling, nothing more though…

Good luck to all.

G.
on 05 Jun 2009 at 10:01 am22Francesco

Yes Chris,

it seems they are preparing for the reversal, maybe asking for a last profit chance before that is asking too much
I am long Cable now with little loss and waiting for the spike to come, will it come?

Good luck
on 05 Jun 2009 at 10:06 am23Chris

Francesco
I am same as you , spike seems more like slow raise at mom using the Dr terms, I personally feel 1.63 1.64 but it seems like everyones in a bit of shock from that move yesterday after ECB .
on 05 Jun 2009 at 10:11 am24Constantin Lucian

i think it’s the calm before the storm…action either way i think we will see after NFP release and continuing on monday. It looks very alike with the price action between 20 - 28 MAY in eur usd. When it spiked up to 1.4050 then dropped over 250 pips to 1.3790..a small stall and then breaking 1.4050 and going as high 1.4340…maybe wee will see the same now and then the trend reversal….i hope because i’m waiting with a short order around 1.4380. Hope i can catch the trend reversal hope we all do.
on 05 Jun 2009 at 10:13 am25Chris

Francesco , by the by, In uk we had local and euro election votes , the local ones are due out 12 noon here, they should show a big swing from the current government. but the swing to the other parties is unclear, normally if the conservatives are on the cards to get it in its bullish , but the people are fed up with the three majors and we might see a seperatist outcome . more towards parties that are anti euro partnerships.
on 05 Jun 2009 at 10:21 am26Francesco

Thank you for the insight Chris,

stop losses required
on 05 Jun 2009 at 10:22 am27Chris

Remeber no hat tricks
on 05 Jun 2009 at 10:41 am28Dr. S. Sivaraman

Dear Francesco & Chris
yes with good risk management.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
on 05 Jun 2009 at 10:43 am29Chris

indeed
on 05 Jun 2009 at 10:43 am30Dr. S. Sivaraman

Dear vinesh
Euro could rise above high first if there are more long holders then it may swing eitrher way.if both longs and shorts are held equally by traders then a qood rise and a drop expected.forecast expectation is upward spike ( 150-250 pips) and week beginning rise during next week.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
on 05 Jun 2009 at 10:45 am31Dr. S. Sivaraman

Dear Nazali

either way we can trade - but take sell positions after the rise and not cut the new high for more than 30 min
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
on 05 Jun 2009 at 11:00 am32mice

Hi dor

you said we can short gbp after rise before NPF or after ?

tks
on 05 Jun 2009 at 11:17 am33Dr. S. Sivaraman

Dear mice

After the spike - mid or late US session
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
on 05 Jun 2009 at 11:54 am34Tarun

how will NFP effect usd/jpy ?
on 05 Jun 2009 at 12:12 pm35Chris

doctor. can i presume that the word spike is less of a move to upward stop hunt. being no more than a quick higher level for operators to shift longs,
one question about trend reversal, would you describe it more like a trend pause?
on 05 Jun 2009 at 12:14 pm36Chris

re our government. 12%loss with 7% migrating out of 3 majors .
on 05 Jun 2009 at 12:50 pm37Francesco

Dr. Sivaraman,

firstly thank you again for another day of precious suggestions most of whom are highly rewarded by us small traders.

If and when you have time, please update the situation.
I have closed my longs on the spike after data, now I am patiently waiting for more upside to open shorts before the reversal.

Do you think US session or Monday may bring new highs again after the pullback we are seeing 30 minutes after the NFP?

Regards,
on 05 Jun 2009 at 12:52 pm38Dr. S. Sivaraman

Dear Chris
Spike is an extended move during that time they make the market volatile and cut the highs every 30 min and go above quickly- the opposite is downward spike.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
on 05 Jun 2009 at 3:49 pm39Dr. S. Sivaraman

Dear Tarun
Now you may see in the market even before NFP data they rised usd/yen- that is sequential trend reversal.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman

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