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Operators' intentions read by Dr. S. Sivaraman, of i-knowindices.com

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Week beginning volatile moves

Posted on June 8, 2009 at 6:33 in Market comment, Market forecast, Operators' intentions by Dr. S. Sivaraman

EURO and GBP dropped afer a rise during US session for last week end close creating a bearish feel in the market.But the players are not expected to make continous drop.They are expected to make week beginning false move - i.e. they are expected to make a quick drop during close of Japanese session to continue the sentiment and then reverse - rise EURO and GBP during European session with some other story.they are expected to make quick down and up swing to gain levels during US session.This they do mainly to trap the visible short sellers who sell during drop and then the players are expected to slide again tomorrow.

I will give updates when quick moves are seen in the market.

Regards

Dr.Sivaraman

38 Responses to “Week beginning volatile moves”

on 08 Jun 2009 at 6:38 am1Francesco

Good day Dr.Sivaraman,

Do you think Eur and Gpb could regain 1,41 and 1,61 respectively today or tomorrow?

Thank you!
on 08 Jun 2009 at 7:20 am2Dr. S. Sivaraman

Dear Francesco

the potency is there till wednesday.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
on 08 Jun 2009 at 7:45 am3Nazali

Hi Dr

We have some quick moves at present - are these false moves giving more bearish feel for the players to reverse? Many thanks.
on 08 Jun 2009 at 7:57 am4Barry

Dear Dr,
Thanks for the view.
You said that european crosses is going to reverse. Eur/Gbp has been swing and down for several weeks. So what is the future trend during this usd gaining period.?
Your predict in your mid-term analysis that usd nominal gain will last till mid of August. You also said that the eur/usd will lost about 900pips by this month end. So what about the following month? Will euro lose more ground or there will be more consolidation or swings next month? Thank you.
Regards.
Barry
on 08 Jun 2009 at 8:04 am5Francesco

Thank you Mr.Sivaraman,

it seems like they want to create fear before next rise.
I have to assume that the more we drop, the less EUR and GBP will be able to regain during US session and/or tomorrow.

Regards,
on 08 Jun 2009 at 8:10 am6mice

hi Dr

when they are expecting to go up ? euro and gbp , they are breaking strongly , it seems 1.3750 is very possible ?
on 08 Jun 2009 at 8:47 am7Constantin Lucian

Dr. what’s your view on usd/jpy is it still a buy for a position trade despite it’s huge rise close to 99 level? I’m asking this because i see that today it will probably go below 98 level so i’m thinking to go long and wait to book 100 pips 150 pips profit this week or next week. Thank you
on 08 Jun 2009 at 9:01 am8Dr. S. Sivaraman

Dear Nazali

YES.We may see now they are making slow recovery move.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
on 08 Jun 2009 at 9:03 am9Dr. S. Sivaraman

Dear Barry

European crosses are expected to make an upward stop hunt and drop.
EURO and GBP are expected to gainagain from mid Jul.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
on 08 Jun 2009 at 9:04 am10Dr. S. Sivaraman

Dear mice
Wait for the rise to do sell and buy trades.
Avoid getting trapped emotionally at lower levels taking sells.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
on 08 Jun 2009 at 9:05 am11Dr. S. Sivaraman

Dear Constantin Lucian
USD/YEN is expected to make a downward stop hunt and then rise.Below low (98.28)could be buy opportunities.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
on 08 Jun 2009 at 9:16 am12Gregor

Dear Dr.,

you wrote
“European crosses are expected to make an upward stop hunt and drop.”

Does it mean that EUR will suffer more than GBP or other european currencies against USD?

Regards,
Gregor
on 08 Jun 2009 at 9:24 am13mice

hi dr

ok sir , thanks very much , i ll be waiting for the rise , do u think ll be around today high ? or lower
on 08 Jun 2009 at 9:34 am14Dr. S. Sivaraman

Dear Gregor

When they rise euro more and GBP less EURO/GBP can rise and when they slide euro and rise or hold GBP EURO/GBP can fall.so they are just mid session moves in the market without affecting the major trend.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
on 08 Jun 2009 at 9:35 am15Dr. S. Sivaraman

Dear mice
Any day till wednesday the quick extended stop hunt is expected
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
on 08 Jun 2009 at 9:49 am16vinesh

doc do u think ucad has also topped out?
on 08 Jun 2009 at 9:52 am17Ahmed

Dear Dr,
You said in response to Mice that Extended stop hunt is expected all day till wednesday.Will it be downward as is happening now or will it be upward stophunt?
Regards
on 08 Jun 2009 at 9:53 am18Ahmed

especially in Euro?
on 08 Jun 2009 at 9:55 am19Wim

This is moving very fast. Took 170+ pips EUR/USD.
on 08 Jun 2009 at 10:38 am20Nazali

hi Dr

You said that the quick extended stophunt could happen any day up to Wed - are eur and gbp expected to continue to drop fast until the stophunt and will it be between 100 - 200 pips or a longer steady rise. when you say stophunt I am right in thinking it will be short and fast? Many thanks.
on 08 Jun 2009 at 10:47 am21Dr. S. Sivaraman

Dear vinesh

USD/CAD is expected to rise more as trending move in this month.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
on 08 Jun 2009 at 10:48 am22Dr. S. Sivaraman

Dear Ahmed

I mentioned any one day till wednesday - an upward extended stop hunt.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
on 08 Jun 2009 at 10:50 am23Dr. S. Sivaraman

Dear Wim & Nazali

Extended stop hunt will be a very quick move for 150-200 pips in less than 30 min
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
on 08 Jun 2009 at 11:31 am24su25

Dear Doc
Is this the upward stop hunt you were expecting? Is 1.5900 a good level to short Gbp/Usd considering that round numbers are generally good resistance/support. And, from technical perspective for intraday - this level is also a 61.8% retracement of the day’s high/low.
Thanks and regards
su25
on 08 Jun 2009 at 11:36 am25Dr. S. Sivaraman

Dear su25
You can do a mock trade following the technical and see the out come that 1.59 is a psychological reistance.I am expecting a rise in EURO and holding of GBP and then further rise in them as week beginning false move.
My suggestion could be a rise of 250 pips nety change to initiate short.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
on 08 Jun 2009 at 11:38 am26Ahmed Hanif

sir i have been following your recommendations since long and they have been great…Please guide regarding the
Aud/Usd pair and and the Eur/Aud pair. Which pair should fall first the Aud/Usd or the Eur/Aud pair in the coming days?

Regards
Ahmed Hanif
on 08 Jun 2009 at 11:48 am27su25

Dear Doc

Thanks! A clarification - you anticipate the stop hunt anytime until Wednesday. Therefore, when you refer to net change of 250 pips is it from Fri’s close or on a daily basis?

Regards
on 08 Jun 2009 at 12:03 pm28Ahmed

Dear Doctor,
Thanks for my correction.I misread it!
on 08 Jun 2009 at 2:00 pm29Fevargas

Hi Dr.

In What it is expected to happen in USD in 2009? you Said: USD NOMINAL GAIN MOVES from Mid Jun to Mid Aug.
What do we understand for NOMINAL Gain, for example: how many pips that move could be?

Thanks and Regards.
on 08 Jun 2009 at 2:37 pm30Francesco

Dear Mr. Sivaraman,

EUR and GBP especially are off the lows just before mid US session.
Do you still expect a quick movement to the upside or the extended stop hunt has already happened?

Maybe they will now start to raise EUR and swing GBP?

Thank you!
on 08 Jun 2009 at 2:49 pm31Dr. S. Sivaraman

Dear Ahmed Hanif
AUD is expected to make less rise when compared to EURO as AUD has already commenced the downward move.So you can derive which one will fast first.
Regsrds
Dr.Sivaraman
on 08 Jun 2009 at 2:53 pm32Dr. S. Sivaraman

Dear su25
When they make quick upward stop hunt the net change at that time could be around 250 pips after the extended stop hunt rise.Slow rises may appear weak currency- that is how the players make the market appear and induce the traders to short.Hence I mention that quick moves are false moves and slow moves are their intentional moves.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
on 08 Jun 2009 at 2:55 pm33jason

Hi Dr. how about the usdjpy, how long it will drop if it will?
on 08 Jun 2009 at 2:55 pm34Dr. S. Sivaraman

Dear Fevargas
Those info are given to my paid premier members,so I may not be able to give in pip terms all the moves.You may refer to other analysis and derive.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
on 08 Jun 2009 at 2:56 pm35Dr. S. Sivaraman

Dear Francesco

Donot become mentally tired.The players take their own time to accumulate positions and then make quick moves.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
on 08 Jun 2009 at 3:07 pm36Francesco

Thank you Dr. Sivaraman,

I will wait for the quick move to close and cover my long positions.
on 08 Jun 2009 at 5:17 pm37Gregor

Dear Dr.,

levels around 1,6020 are very interesting for shorting GBP. What do you think?

Thank you,
Gregor
on 08 Jun 2009 at 5:39 pm38Gregor

Is this a (slower) version of upward stop hunt in GBP we are looking at right now?

G.

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