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Operators' intentions read by Dr. S. Sivaraman, of i-knowindices.com

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EURO and GBP are expected to make volatile moves

Posted on June 23, 2009 at 3:21 in Market comment, Market forecast, Operators' intentions by Dr. S. Sivaraman

After subdued moves seen in EURO and GBP yesterday,quick action is expected today.

A quick drop during early Japanese session and rise during rest of japanese session.A quick drop and rise during Early European session.A quick extended stop hunt rise during mid European and then slide .A quick rise and slide during US session are the expected moves.

I will explain the details during my Asian session webinar : Live market analysis today between 05:00-05:30 GMT

Link to register for the same is given below:

http://www.fxstreet.com/live/sessions/session.aspx?id=9d5b006e-30c8-42fc-a048-e322846df35a

Regards

Dr.Sivaraman

60 Responses to “EURO and GBP are expected to make volatile moves”

on 23 Jun 2009 at 5:51 am1emil

thanks dr!
eurgbp to continue rise?
on 23 Jun 2009 at 5:57 am2Francesco

Good morning Dr. Sivaraman,

kindly which levels do you expect EUR and GBP to reach during the possible quick extended stop hunt?

Regards,
on 23 Jun 2009 at 6:03 am3Francesco

Lows have been broken, and it’s happening during gap time.

We might consider it a false break?
on 23 Jun 2009 at 6:08 am4Mohi

Francesco, it is not gap time yet. Regards..
on 23 Jun 2009 at 6:30 am5Kevin

EU and GU broke the low and are rising rapidly, this false move seems to be playing out just like you said they would doc thank you.
on 23 Jun 2009 at 6:54 am6Dr. S. Sivaraman

Dear emil

Yes
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
on 23 Jun 2009 at 6:55 am7Dr. S. Sivaraman

dear Francesco

maximum permitted net change level they could go and come back fast.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
on 23 Jun 2009 at 6:55 am8maren

Dr, could you explain what is extended stop hunt.
on 23 Jun 2009 at 6:56 am9Dr. S. Sivaraman

Dear Kevin
yes a small downward stop hunt before the next rise.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
on 23 Jun 2009 at 6:56 am10carlab

As you mentioned ydy, it was a move in crosses. Lowering agst yen and making a higher eur/gbp. But nothing has hapenned yet in Eur and GBP agst USD. Think you maybe right.
But in order to see both higher we need stocks to recover.
Do you think that will happen for month end? Can I share your view in stocks for coming summer pls? Tks a lot
on 23 Jun 2009 at 7:03 am11Gregor

Dear dr.,

when do you expect EUR, GBP will will start rising again “for real” i.e. the correction we are waiting for will be over?

Kind regards,
Gregor
on 23 Jun 2009 at 7:03 am12Kevin

thank doctor, One thing I don’t understand is that if the players have a net change limit they might go by, does that mean we likely won’t see your 4150-4250 EU and 6600+ GU extended stop hunt play today? Thanks for the great calls again! really profitable.
on 23 Jun 2009 at 7:39 am13mice

Hi Dr

what do u think about audusd for long ?

regards
on 23 Jun 2009 at 8:04 am14Mohi

Dear Doc,

Is it always the case that mondays and gaptime will have false move? Thanks..
on 23 Jun 2009 at 8:33 am15Dr. S. Sivaraman

Dear maren
Extended stop hunt = a quick rise/drop of 100-150 pips and come back to same level in less than 30 min.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
on 23 Jun 2009 at 8:36 am16Dr. S. Sivaraman

Dear carlab
Stocks will recover.
EURO and GBP are expected to make range bound swings till 2nd week of July.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
on 23 Jun 2009 at 8:38 am17Dr. S. Sivaraman

Dear Gregor

Rise is expected during mid European session.
Regards
Dr./Sivaraman
on 23 Jun 2009 at 8:40 am18Dr. S. Sivaraman

Dear Kevin
Today risecould be limited to 150-250 pips rise only - if they hold high and rise tomorrow another 150-250 pips rise could happen that will be extended move and not extended stop hunt.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
on 23 Jun 2009 at 8:40 am19Dr. S. Sivaraman

Dear mice
You can take long near low with 30 pips hedging order.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
on 23 Jun 2009 at 8:41 am20Dr. S. Sivaraman

Dear Mohi

yes and also before data release as welll.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
on 23 Jun 2009 at 9:59 am21carlab

Fantastic recover in the eur/gbp cross. I guess this open the door for higher eur/doll to acomplish with the +150pips around 1.3970. Eur/yen did the 150pips move, think further to go in this cross.But I doubt eur/usd can go further.
What will be next big move, in eur and stocks though the summer pls?
Tks vmuch for your comments. Very helpful
on 23 Jun 2009 at 10:29 am22Nazali

Hi Dr

what’s the forecast for the US session - in the blog you say rise and slide but I’m sure you said drop and rise in the webinar this morning. also is usd/yen to make a steady rise with less drop - do you see it reaching 100 in july? Many thanks
on 23 Jun 2009 at 10:46 am23Dr. S. Sivaraman

Dear carlab
No exitement please.They will make up and down moves alternatively in currencies.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
on 23 Jun 2009 at 10:47 am24Dr. S. Sivaraman

Dear Nazali

During US session a quick dip and rise and swings till close are the expected moves
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
on 23 Jun 2009 at 10:57 am25Francesco

Dear Dr.Sivaraman,

today I would like to ask you again about stop losses and hedging strategy.
I don’t have big experience in the forex market, though also thank to your advices, daily study and practice I have been having good results so far, I have traded currencies constantly for 6 months only.

As you know players tend to move the market in the opposite direction before they make the real moves in order to maximize their gains.
I am aware of the importance of stop losses and hedging strategies, but due to players’ moves and their ability to make the market swing, most of my trades happen to be in red and eventually close with small or bigger profit.

Therefore I often ask myself what is the sense of the stop losses, when patience and calm in front of a temporary loss can be very useful indeed.
Also, I tend to avoid overtrading since it can generate panic or at least confusion and a distortive view of the market.

I would appreciate your comment on this topic
on 23 Jun 2009 at 10:59 am26jacob

Hi Doc

the usd/chf still cannot rise, really testing patience of traders
on 23 Jun 2009 at 11:03 am27Sam

Dr. Could the orgainzations listed below will ever stop their therrible predictions? 60% of the time they have been wrong since last years. Will they stop?

Financial Trend Analysis 1.3613 1.3749 1.3807 1.3943 1.4021 1.4157 Down

Mizuho 1.3748 1.3800 1.3826 1.3955 1.3986 1.4013 Down

Finotec 1.3750 1.3805 1.3825 1.3914 1.3955 1.3995 n/a

KBC 1.3748 1.3806 1.3826 1.3934 1.3993 1.4042 Up

CMS n/a 1.3550 1.3750 1.4000 1.4300 n/a n/a

FXstreet.com 1.3676 1.3750 1.380
on 23 Jun 2009 at 11:22 am28Kevin

great calls doctor right on. Are you saying the US session will be a swing and rise? Do you expect EU or GU to revist the lows again? Thank you very much.
on 23 Jun 2009 at 11:32 am29Mohi

Dear Doc,

What is your outlook for gbpusd for remainder of the week now? Thank you
on 23 Jun 2009 at 12:22 pm30Emil

Euro is at daily limit. Rise but no spike.
GBP has not reached daily limits and is near 21gmt yesterdays levels.

How do you see it develop from here?

thanks.
on 23 Jun 2009 at 12:27 pm31Emil

And forecast spot on!
thanks again for invaluable advise!
on 23 Jun 2009 at 12:44 pm32Ahmed

Repected Dr,
Just to show again my appreciation for your yet another excellent call today.
Regards
on 23 Jun 2009 at 1:05 pm33Juan

As ER is at or near daily net change, do we look for it to reverse (slide) or merely fizzle?
on 23 Jun 2009 at 1:17 pm34Dr. S. Sivaraman

Dear Francesco
Your understanding is correct.

if we avoid over trading, and take one position at a time and book profit in that patiently before taking another and keep some mental stop to study the market when it happens to come closer to that level and what happens, certainly help in the earning process.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
on 23 Jun 2009 at 1:18 pm35Dr. S. Sivaraman

Dear jacob

Denominator currencies are to test patience,but will rise.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
on 23 Jun 2009 at 1:19 pm36Dr. S. Sivaraman

dear Kevin
they have done enough downward stop hunts and rised EURO and GBP.They are expected to make upward stop hunts now.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
on 23 Jun 2009 at 1:21 pm37Dr. S. Sivaraman

Dear Mohi

Big volatile moves could be seen as last week of the month in GBP.Without any bias we can buy near low or sell near high when they make quick moves.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
on 23 Jun 2009 at 1:22 pm38Dr. S. Sivaraman

Dear Emil,Ahmed &Juan

We could see contrarian moves at the higher levels in EURO and GBP.They cannot keep the market static.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
on 23 Jun 2009 at 1:39 pm39jason

Hi Dr

In your previous postings, you have indicated that there will be reversals in the gbp, eur and the majors soon. You also mentioned that the players are taking and building up short positions.

Do you still hold this view ?

If the majors are to reverse, when is it likely to happen ?

cheers
jason
on 23 Jun 2009 at 1:41 pm40Rachael

Dear Dr Sivaraman
Please may I ask what you mean by ‘contrarian moves’
With Respect
Rachael
on 23 Jun 2009 at 2:18 pm41mice

Hi Dr ]

this is the stop hunt in euro to start short or there is more upward stop tommorow?
on 23 Jun 2009 at 2:25 pm42Dr. S. Sivaraman

dear jason
we need to watch whether they are booking profit or building shorts.Then further moves can be determined.After mid week only the reversal could happen.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
on 23 Jun 2009 at 2:27 pm43Dr. S. Sivaraman

Dear Rachael

rising EURO and dropping GBP is a contrarian move - obe pair makes usd weakening and another pair making usd strengthening move.Similarly rising euro and rising usd/yen is a contrarian move.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
on 23 Jun 2009 at 2:28 pm44jason

HI Dr

Thanks for your reply.

ONe more question though. How do we watch and determine whether they are booking profit or building shorts ?

Any tell tale signs ?

cheers
jason
on 23 Jun 2009 at 2:29 pm45Dr. S. Sivaraman

dear mice
When they stop cutting the high for 2 hrs after extended rise we can short for a swing trade and not immediately.Tomorrow they are expected to make another rise before the drop.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
on 23 Jun 2009 at 2:38 pm46Francesco

Thank you Dr.Sivaraman,

do you think EURGBP could be a short opportunity at 0,86?

Regards
on 23 Jun 2009 at 2:44 pm47Constantin Lucian

Dr, please tell me if i’m getting this right. Following price action today one 150 pips rise in eur and smaller rise or fall in gbp. Although we had a maximum allowed net change in euro the price looked like it was slowly or normally rising and not violently 100-150 pips in 30 minutes. So todays action was mostly for eur/gbp cross and now we can expect tomorrow the extended short lived stop hunt making 1.415 - 1.42 level realistic, before making the expected trend reversal drop. Of course this applies if everything stays the same before day end. Also as Monday false move (the drop) is the same as last week except different intensity we can expect 2 days of rising (today and Wednesday). So players showing extended move , eur/gbp cross handling and inducing a new strong bullish sentiment - not trend reversal moves only trend reversal preparing moves.
on 23 Jun 2009 at 2:56 pm48Dr. S. Sivaraman

dear Francesco

You know that they do the rise for 2 days and then reverse.
Wait for another day rise and short near the high set.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
on 23 Jun 2009 at 2:58 pm49Dr. S. Sivaraman

Dear jason

When you watch their holding near high without upward stop hunt indicate that they are inducing traders to long before the drop without giving them profit booking opportunity.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
on 23 Jun 2009 at 2:59 pm50Dr. S. Sivaraman

Dear Constantin Lucian
You are right.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
on 23 Jun 2009 at 3:07 pm51jason

Hi Dr

Thanks for the clarification.

Do you still expect the majors to go higher tonight and have another stop hunt tomorrow before the trend reversal ?

cheers
jason
on 23 Jun 2009 at 4:03 pm52emil

Dear Dr. Provided EURGBP is about to turn and go down / Can we than expect EUR to fall more than GBP?

Also, for this reversal/ Do you still see 900EUR0/1600GBP pips drop or much less now since reversal took longer time than expected?
on 23 Jun 2009 at 4:27 pm53Nazali

Hi Dr

Eur has made over 215 net change, will it correct and rise more tomorrow? Many thanks.
on 23 Jun 2009 at 4:35 pm54ejthekkan

Dear Doc.
Thanks a lot for your invaluable advice thro this blog. There is no doubt that many are learning as well as earning coz you. please keep it up.
euro has risen more than 225 pips from y’days close/ a rare case.
What can we see next!!
on 23 Jun 2009 at 7:32 pm55mice

Hi dr

what do u think about usdyen next big move , up or down ?
i m asking about a move of 500 pips .

regards
on 24 Jun 2009 at 3:23 am56Dr. S. Sivaraman

Dear jason
They intend to rise till the short sellers cover their shorts in fear and turn long.
Then reversal is expected to happen.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
on 24 Jun 2009 at 3:25 am57Dr. S. Sivaraman

Dear emil

Since it takes longer time to reverse European crosses the drop may be big but may not reach new lows for the season as expected.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
on 24 Jun 2009 at 3:26 am58Dr. S. Sivaraman

Dear Nazali

dip and rise more.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
on 24 Jun 2009 at 3:27 am59Dr. S. Sivaraman

Dear ejthekkan

Thanks.
Another round of rise and then slide.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
on 24 Jun 2009 at 3:27 am60Dr. S. Sivaraman

Dear mice
UP
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman

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