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Operators' intentions read by Dr. S. Sivaraman, of i-knowindices.com

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Volatile moves expected for a day before next slide

Posted on June 25, 2009 at 2:55 in Market comment, Market forecast, Operators' intentions by Dr. S. Sivaraman

EURO and GBP made the higher level consolidation yesterday during European session and more of profit booking happened before and after FOMC, as against the expected quick rise . when traders were willing to do buy and sell trades, players booked profit in a hurry.Then when the traders short during drop the players were compelled to buy as they could not sell to traders.Those lower level buys today they are expected to offload with quick upward stop hunts.

During Japanese session slow recovery is expected in EURO and GBP.

During European session a dip and quick rise expected till mid European session

Late European session again profit booking drop for GDP data release

US session is expected to show subdued slide.

Week end the players are expected to let loose the market and more falls are expected in EURO and GBP.

Sell during quick rise to book profit during quick drop.

Regards

Dr.Sivaraman

43 Responses to “Volatile moves expected for a day before next slide”

on 25 Jun 2009 at 3:32 am1Francesco

Good day Mr.Sivaraman,

the expected upward spike unfortunately did not happen.
I am currently long on EUR and GBP with a current loss of 30 - 40 pips.

Do you think that the quick rise expected during today’s european session will allow my position to recover?

Regards and thank you for your constant effort and patience!
on 25 Jun 2009 at 3:58 am2Dr. S. Sivaraman

Dear Francesco
There could be a chance to close with stop at entry or with some profit.Try to trail the stop and limit the risk.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
on 25 Jun 2009 at 4:01 am3Francesco

Thank you Dr.Sivaraman!
on 25 Jun 2009 at 4:07 am4jason

hi dr

Can i know your views on the commodity currencies?
Do you still expect them and the majors to reverse and drop big from here?

Can you estimate the breath of the drop in the eur and gbp when they reverse?

Thanks so much
on 25 Jun 2009 at 4:46 am5saad

Good Morning

can you belive that from -09-06- i am short with GBP/USD at 16209 in hope that will come below by level. all this days its come down just for one day and my greedness i didnt closed the position. we saw the up word stop hunt for many times,,, do you think they will do down word stop hunt.

thanksss

thanks for your comment because you i am still in market otherwise i’ll be getting margen call as i used to. thanks
saaed
on 25 Jun 2009 at 5:25 am6Nazali

Hi Dr

Will we see an upward extended stop hunt next week or is it the big drop time? Could eur reach at least 41 before the drop. Many thanks.
on 25 Jun 2009 at 5:43 am7Mohi

Dear Doc,

Will we start seeing the drops without a last upward spike? Thanks and regards..
on 25 Jun 2009 at 6:28 am8Constantin Lucian

Dr. I want to ask you again about false moves. Are there false moves at month beginning or month end? If yes , when do they start and when do they end so that we can say that the false move has happened. Thank you again
on 25 Jun 2009 at 7:04 am9carlab

Well, not bad after all. Nobody seems to pay too much attention to what, for me, was the big event ydy in the fx market: The SNB intervention. They are smart people and probabily most of it was done buying USD/CHF. In this thin mkt, this “rare” player put things where he wanted. Mkt protected itself buying $ through €, that’s why ydy predictions were not that accurated. I still beleive stocks triing to pick up, so funds will show nice figures at the end of semester, and down throgh summer. Afterwards big drop taking eur/usd down with it. Do you share my view Dr.?
And if so, what’s your target for this pair in its way down?
Tks very much
on 25 Jun 2009 at 7:48 am10Kevin

doctor what price area would you expect on the possible upward stop hunts on the EU and GU? Thanks.
on 25 Jun 2009 at 8:31 am11Mohi

Doc, the fact that gbp had a “drop” during London hours, does it change your outlook for the weekend? Will also appreciate your views of gbp, usd for the US GDP coverage period. Your usdjpy prediction worked well yesterday. Thanks and regards..
on 25 Jun 2009 at 9:45 am12Dr. S. Sivaraman

Dear jason
the drop could be for this week and next week.You can understand how much they could slide.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
on 25 Jun 2009 at 9:47 am13Dr. S. Sivaraman

dear saad
glad there is self reflection on the mistakes commited on greed or panicness.try to avoid doing the same during future tradings.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
on 25 Jun 2009 at 9:48 am14Dr. S. Sivaraman

Dear Nazali

if the players have build short positions already then they may not make upward stop hunts.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
on 25 Jun 2009 at 10:39 am15Nazali

Hi Dr

Will we see more much more rise in Usd/chf now that eur is dropping?
on 25 Jun 2009 at 10:48 am16Emil

Dear Dr. Are you saying that we may not see upward stophunts today? continued slide?
on 25 Jun 2009 at 11:05 am17Dr. S. Sivaraman

Dear Nazali

possible- but I am expecting the upward extended stop hunt any time during the drop.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
on 25 Jun 2009 at 12:14 pm18Rohan

dr,is slide in gbp/usd considered as false move before data release to make an upward extended stop hunt after data release ?
on 25 Jun 2009 at 12:17 pm19Dr. S. Sivaraman

Dear Mohi
We need to watch and understand.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
on 25 Jun 2009 at 12:18 pm20Dr. S. Sivaraman

Dear Constantin Lucian
Month end and month beginning time they make trend reversal moves and not false moves.week beginning they make false moves.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
on 25 Jun 2009 at 12:20 pm21Dr. S. Sivaraman

Dear carlab
Thanks for your views.I have given my views in the postings and the answers to questions.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
on 25 Jun 2009 at 12:21 pm22Dr. S. Sivaraman

dear Kevin
it depens upon the longs and shorts built up in the market.it appears those shorted yesterday are waiting to book profit and those taken longs have cut the positions and watching.we will see some intersting moves.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
on 25 Jun 2009 at 12:23 pm23Dr. S. Sivaraman

Dear Rohan
I think so.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
on 25 Jun 2009 at 12:57 pm24Kevin

So doctor are the predictions now changed to see those huge drops now? That you spoke about? I am curious why you expected more rise after the currencies did hit the area you said they were going to hit before the major slide? thanks.
on 25 Jun 2009 at 1:00 pm25mice

Hi Dear Dr

is there more up for euro and gbp ? or thas it .

regards
on 25 Jun 2009 at 1:14 pm26ejthekkan

dear Dr.
can we see 1.65 GBP/$ this week again?
on 25 Jun 2009 at 1:25 pm27Francesco

Good day Mr.Sivaraman,

do you believe the market has already built its short positions on EUR and GBP?

What are the elements that could help us to understand it?

Regards,
on 25 Jun 2009 at 1:53 pm28Dr. S. Sivaraman

Dear Kevin

I have to fine tune my forecast based on players market moves from time to time to make it more appropriate.When the traders have not finished taking good sell positions how they can make big drops?They want the traders to commit wrongly but the traders take positions alternatively buy and sell depending upon the visible moves of the market.then they players need to make the moves against the traders to earn their money.That is what happening now.When traders short along with players and all turn sellers the players are forced to buy the sells of the traders and trap them to earn their money.So the big drop envisaged is now reduced to wide range swings for the month.We will see the month end moves and derive the moves for July,whether there is delay in moves are trend change.I will give the posts by next week explaining the intentions of the players.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
on 25 Jun 2009 at 1:54 pm29Dr. S. Sivaraman

Dear mice
This session slow firming up moves are expected.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
on 25 Jun 2009 at 1:55 pm30Dr. S. Sivaraman

Dear ejthekkan
Players are known to give surprises from time to time in the market.if not in this week they may show next week if needed.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
on 25 Jun 2009 at 1:56 pm31Dr. S. Sivaraman

Dear Francesco
When forcible downward stop hunt below low and recovery indicate the traders are holding more short and less long -so the players make brief downward stop hunt and more free rise.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
on 25 Jun 2009 at 2:26 pm32Kevin

Doctor, you said in your prediction a subdue slide but then you said a slow firm up in this US session? please clarify thanks.
on 25 Jun 2009 at 2:52 pm33Nazali

Hi Dr

what has made you change from slide to firming up? Many thanks as always.
on 25 Jun 2009 at 3:00 pm34ejthekkan

Many thanks.
on 25 Jun 2009 at 3:08 pm35mice

Hi Dear Dr

i feel gbpusd will go up again , they are playig the range , what do you suggest sir buying gbpusd ?

regards
on 25 Jun 2009 at 3:16 pm36su25

Dear Doc
Gbp @ 1.6295, and they have not cut the low of 1.6260 set for almost 2 hours in this US session. Is it ok to trade long with hedgeing order?
Thanks.
on 25 Jun 2009 at 3:24 pm37su25

Dear Doc
For Eur, a marginal new low was made, but price quickly went above the new low. Is this a stop hunt? And, safe to go long?
Regards
on 25 Jun 2009 at 3:42 pm38Francesco

Dear Dr. Sivaraman,

Same question of su25 but concerning USDCHF, which is not far from daily highs and have not broken the high for a few hours.

A sell at 1,0981 would make sense?

Regards,
on 25 Jun 2009 at 4:38 pm39Dr. S. Sivaraman

Dear Kevin & Nazali
I amended for US session slow firming up move - as traders waited for GDP data before commiting position- so the players also made the false move after data and now making firming up move.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
on 25 Jun 2009 at 4:41 pm40Dr. S. Sivaraman

dear mice

Buy can be done in GBP with hedging order and moving stop to entry and removing hedging order and trail stop once the position makes profit.
Hence in my reply I mentioned firming up move expected for this session.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
on 25 Jun 2009 at 4:43 pm41Dr. S. Sivaraman

Dear su25
Your reading in EURO and GBP were correct and you can now see the result by yourself.This insight I want all to develop so that they can trade at ease rather than asking me to hold their hand all the time of trading - I wish all traders develop the insight and self confidence soon..
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
on 25 Jun 2009 at 4:44 pm42Dr. S. Sivaraman

Dear Francesco

I recommend avoid doing sell and buy trades in denominator currencies.You can try for small profits using the rule.You can see the market and understand whether it is working or not.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
on 25 Jun 2009 at 5:25 pm43ejthekkan

Excellent!!!
Dr, you once again proved to be a genius

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